tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post1844180966666042718..comments2024-03-26T10:45:14.207-05:00Comments on The Minnesota Forecaster: For Central MSP, Snowfall Surprises Twin Cities ForecastersBillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comBlogger84125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-40341465298290439122020-02-22T02:16:51.377-06:002020-02-22T02:16:51.377-06:00The writer has outdone himself this time. It is no...The writer has outdone himself this time. It is not at all enough; the website is also utmost perfect. I will never forget to visit your site again and again. <a href="https://www.blueholepools.com" rel="nofollow">spicewood custom pool contractor</a><br />Jason Marshallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09659950211085370868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-82797319440429248172012-05-21T07:22:13.315-05:002012-05-21T07:22:13.315-05:00where i live the weather is unpredictable so i got...where i live the weather is unpredictable so i got used to it. <br />it is even impossible to make 2-3 days forecast.Mirandahttp://thefamilytreemaker.org/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-21436206923123474902011-11-27T21:46:48.878-06:002011-11-27T21:46:48.878-06:00@Plymouth Weather Lover Great idea! Just added a n...@Plymouth Weather Lover Great idea! Just added a new post in response to your suggestion. Hope it turns out to be boutiful!Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-54967953128784500282011-11-27T21:46:24.815-06:002011-11-27T21:46:24.815-06:00@Plymouth Weather Lover-
Here are some of the sit...@Plymouth Weather Lover-<br /><br />Here are some of the sites I use-<br /><br />http://www.weather.gov/<br />http://www.wunderground.com/<br /><br />One of my favorites:<br /><br />http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml<br /><br />For the long ranges:<br /><br />http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/<br />http://www.weathermanwatson.com/maps.htm<br /><br />the infamous site of inaccurate weather:<br /><br />http://www.accuweather.com/<br /><br />Major forcecasts I use:<br /><br />http://www.weather.com/<br />http://www.intellicast.com/<br /><br />cool interactives:<br /><br />http://imapweather.com/<br /><br />The local doods:<br /><br />http://weather.minnesota.cbslocal.com/US/MN/Minneapolis.html<br /><br />http://www.kare11.com/weather/<br />http://www.myfoxtwincities.com/subindex/weather<br />http://kstp.com/weather/<br /><br />My model info:<br /><br />http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller<br /><br />http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0<br /><br />Others:<br /><br />http://www.foreca.com/North_America/United_States/Minnesota/browse<br />http://www.spc.noaa.gov/<br /><br />And finally, meteorology out of this world:<br /><br />http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/bemakinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-86833789791915955272011-11-27T21:27:34.692-06:002011-11-27T21:27:34.692-06:00Both models have pushed the system south a bit. I ...Both models have pushed the system south a bit. I hope for a push in the oppisite direction if we are to get a chance at some snowbemakinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-77149587866242701972011-11-27T21:24:16.494-06:002011-11-27T21:24:16.494-06:00Bill, I have a suggestion. Since the weather is s...Bill, I have a suggestion. Since the weather is suppose to be pretty quiet for a couple of days (weeks?), what if you have everyone post their favorite weather sites (links) so that those of us who don't have all of them can set bookmarks to them?? Good idea? I would love to have all of these good people on here respond so I can tap into these resources as well.Plymouth Weather Lovernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-51957138550392504652011-11-27T17:17:47.853-06:002011-11-27T17:17:47.853-06:00This is starting to look promising, next Sunday-Mo...This is starting to look promising, next Sunday-Monday. Hoping it turns into something as the GFS is now hopping on the bandwagan with the European model and giving us a good shot at snow. Crossing my fingersMarcnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-65502552584874358782011-11-27T17:11:07.054-06:002011-11-27T17:11:07.054-06:00Did everyone hear that,that's how I'm feel...Did everyone hear that,that's how I'm feeling about the weather currentlyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-42116774888263578532011-11-27T16:49:19.661-06:002011-11-27T16:49:19.661-06:00I just looked at the latest run. GFS shows an inte...I just looked at the latest run. GFS shows an interesting feature right before it goes into "good for speculation" mode. Almost cuts off. See how it will evolve.bemakinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-40331705667729149242011-11-27T15:47:27.171-06:002011-11-27T15:47:27.171-06:00The observed AO (Atlantic Oscillation) has taken a...The observed AO (Atlantic Oscillation) has taken a nose dive that the models have missed up to now. Observed values are the black line...<br /><br />http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif<br /><br />I was waiting to see if the models would pick up on this as it indicates a flip in the temps could be in the cards 8-10 days out. <br /><br />27/12z Euro <br /><br />http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif<br /><br />GFS 24hrs earlier <br /><br />http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPUS216.html<br /><br />looks cold to merandyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-19422181204213274042011-11-27T13:39:02.192-06:002011-11-27T13:39:02.192-06:00Comparing the Euro 06z and 12z 180 hours out, ther...Comparing the Euro 06z and 12z 180 hours out, there is a lot of variabillity. However, there appears to be a westward trend in the euro along with a strenting trend. There is still a lot of potential changes with this system, wven if it does in fact come into existance.<br /><br />However, it does give us snow lovers somthing to talk about, at least.<br /><br />Also, there appears to be a extrodinarly gradual strenthening trend in both the eure and the GFS in a very weak low coming through on december 1st. Before, both the models had absolutely nothing on that, and now there is a very light band. Let us hope that these trends continuebemakinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-17540742379758878942011-11-27T13:07:34.069-06:002011-11-27T13:07:34.069-06:00European model has something that looks hopeful ab...European model has something that looks hopeful about 160-175 hours out <br /><br /><br />http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-48444851647966287012011-11-27T11:35:28.309-06:002011-11-27T11:35:28.309-06:00I wouldn't trust model guidance much past 48 h...I wouldn't trust model guidance much past 48 hours right now. Euro guidance seems to be performing better than American models.<br /><br />I have not seen a more messed-up, screwed-up jet pattern than what I see now. This wouldn't be that surprising if it were Spring, but we are in the late fall.<br /><br />I have a tough time forecasting in this environment and the liklihood of a continued drought is high in Minnesota.NovakWeathernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-23851738122772693082011-11-27T11:30:00.970-06:002011-11-27T11:30:00.970-06:00So far out, it can't be taken very seriously, ...So far out, it can't be taken very seriously, but on the 11th-13th the GFS is bringing something big into the area. Again, it's very far out, and could be nothing in the next model run, or be 500 miles away, but right now it's the ONLY sign of anything in the next 15 days. Hoping it turns into something we can talk about. <br /><br />http://wxweb.meteostar.com/leads_images/Models/GFS/CON/CP/large/surface/2011112712_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_348.gifMarcnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-34219158501305796542011-11-27T08:32:29.927-06:002011-11-27T08:32:29.927-06:00Another Saturday behind us,and the next Saturday t...Another Saturday behind us,and the next Saturday the only chance for snow this week or another chance for snowlovers to be disappointed or another chance for DD to say "it potentially could be significant" during his blogs this week,maybe buying a new snowblower was a bad omen,I should return it to reverse this snowless patternbig daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-60878850680380418642011-11-26T21:22:31.589-06:002011-11-26T21:22:31.589-06:00@Novak-
How far would you consider the models as ...@Novak-<br /><br />How far would you consider the models as "trustable", then?bemakinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-10735502868773961532011-11-26T12:04:31.360-06:002011-11-26T12:04:31.360-06:00The jet stream is all over the place with massive ...The jet stream is all over the place with massive troughs and ridges. This is creating an environment that is conducive for large cut-off lows. In turn, models have a very difficult time predicting cut-off lows and how they will evolve. Expect surprises and significant model discrepancies until this pattern dramatically changes. Frustrating.NovakWeathernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-5483122534736784292011-11-26T11:34:54.423-06:002011-11-26T11:34:54.423-06:00Any moisture, in any form, is good news. The bad ...Any moisture, in any form, is good news. The bad news is that 7-10 days out, there's nothing...not rain nor snow. The concerns with this now prolonged drought go far beyond the disappointments of a potential "brown Christmas."ABnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-50318239483487903182011-11-26T06:11:28.460-06:002011-11-26T06:11:28.460-06:00Who knows when we will have a snowstorm around her...Who knows when we will have a snowstorm around here,this pattern sucks,btw!,but I can tell you somewhere during the first week of December we will finally feel like winter,temps for highs consistently in the 20's to near 30,now if we can just get a storm to run from the Texas Panhandle to Lacrosse,Wisconsin all snowlovers will rejoice.big daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-37846788157010094452011-11-26T00:15:37.624-06:002011-11-26T00:15:37.624-06:00Well if it was 30 degrees out right now this could...Well if it was 30 degrees out right now this could be a lot of white stuff at least where I am. (Red Wing) <br /><br />Too bad its 48 right nowMarcnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-60598312298600970772011-11-25T18:48:26.364-06:002011-11-25T18:48:26.364-06:00Now for the 10 day forecast....but 1st let me say ...Now for the 10 day forecast....but 1st let me say I forgot to say the that I would like to see the 850 mb temps at -5 C, sorry. <br /><br />Both the 12z Euro and GFS are in general agreement that the only precip in the next 10 days will be seen tomorrow, so don't expect much more than that.<br /><br />For temps... while there will be some some days that are near normal, any deviation from that should be above normal. I do not see any single digits above zero F for lows. Both the GFS and Euro are in agreement there.<br /><br />Of course things could change quickly, but the 10 day forecast is above normal in the confidence factor..say 6 out of 10. Drought will continue to deepen.randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-80575681780567474202011-11-25T18:21:34.855-06:002011-11-25T18:21:34.855-06:00ok the verdict is in, another win for the Euro. F...ok the verdict is in, another win for the Euro. For Saturday looks to me like any precip totals will be lucky to reach 1/10". Looking at the temps at 700mb,850mb,925mb and the surface temps, any snow fall is marginal at best, temps 2 meter's above the surface look to stay above freeing until about 12am Sun, at which time the precip should have moved to our east. To get snowfall at the surface with temps around 34 or so I would like to see the 850mb temps get to the north side of -5...that won't happen.<br /><br />With 2m temps staying well above freezing (34-35) any very light precip should stay liquid. With strong winds and the exhaust from cars I think the roads will stay mostly dry in the metro area. Travel problems should exist only in the Arrowhead of MN, maybe as far south of the Brainerd to Hinckley line.randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-22528157295580749452011-11-25T11:09:55.191-06:002011-11-25T11:09:55.191-06:00@bill-
good point@bill-<br /><br />good pointbemakinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-10866347412374968302011-11-25T11:04:28.326-06:002011-11-25T11:04:28.326-06:00@bemaki I don't recall all the specifics of th...@bemaki I don't recall all the specifics of the Halloween blizzard, but predictions for this weekend seem fairly different than for the Halloween blizzard. I recall there were "wacky" models that were predicting large amounts.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-49489691752947528642011-11-25T10:50:18.154-06:002011-11-25T10:50:18.154-06:00I'm not too worried about a massive Snow Storm...I'm not too worried about a massive Snow Storm, but I certainly believe that our rain will change-over to some snow later in the day tomorrow. Gut feeling is that the significant accumulation will be in northeastern MN & over extreme northern WI and the U.P. However, I still don't feel that the models have a firm grasp on how this storm will evolve and it certainly needs to be closely monitored.<br /><br />On the other hand, I do expect roads to become slick later tomorrow all over eastern MN & western WI as temps crash. Travel conditions should become a bit tricky with icy spots. I'm surprised that this has not been stressed, especially when considering how many people will be on the roads.NovakWeathernoreply@blogger.com