tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post1993652045272655362..comments2024-03-26T10:45:14.207-05:00Comments on The Minnesota Forecaster: Considerable Forecaster Variability for Mem Day WeekendBillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-23428756878084891262012-06-08T10:57:58.292-05:002012-06-08T10:57:58.292-05:00Hey Bill severe threat close to home on Sunday,wit...Hey Bill severe threat close to home on Sunday,with all this heat and humidity forecasted on Sunday....storms could be big,hope tornadoes stay away though......as they always say keep an eye to the sky.big daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-68489517024470200282012-06-01T15:31:21.962-05:002012-06-01T15:31:21.962-05:00Yea, I think I'm pretty much done with this wh...Yea, I think I'm pretty much done with this whole rating stuff. I've got a lot of "in conclusion" thoughts to share on the subject at some point soon....Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-16986754767434475562012-06-01T15:28:53.512-05:002012-06-01T15:28:53.512-05:00Bill,
I'm still impressed that you are rating...Bill,<br /><br />I'm still impressed that you are rating the media and NWS based on their day 7 forecast and think that rating has meaning. How was the day 2 forecast for the holiday weekend?<br /><br />--Kevin.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-77162153827608233832012-05-29T19:24:59.584-05:002012-05-29T19:24:59.584-05:001st of all thanks for asking, 2nd of all I hope yo...1st of all thanks for asking, 2nd of all I hope your sister gets 80° temps with the dews in the low 50's, that would be prefect for a wedding day. But to answer your question, at this time it's way to earlier to tell. I don't know where you will be at in MN, so my best advice would to monitor the Area Forecast Discussion from the various offices that cover MN. Another source would be to monitor the Storm Predictions web site under Convective Outlooks, while often time's for the day 4-8 daily outlook they will show "predictability to low," they often in their text portion give a idea of what they think.<br /><br />As a amateur weather nut, I like forecasting, but please refer to the pros.randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-67561178608768738702012-05-29T17:54:02.574-05:002012-05-29T17:54:02.574-05:00check that on Sunday, Temps now look like they cou...check that on Sunday, Temps now look like they could be above 80 with dew points as high as 65° based on the 5/29 0z and 12z runs of the euro. Precip chances 20%<br /><br />GFS is about 6 hours slower bring in the higher DP'srandyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-75100751974406663642012-05-29T10:37:52.760-05:002012-05-29T10:37:52.760-05:00@randyinchamplin, any thoughts on the longer range...@randyinchamplin, any thoughts on the longer range? my sister gets married june 9th and i will be coming down from ND from the 6th-10th. hoping for some good severe weather days.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-2243901813654995842012-05-28T21:36:42.961-05:002012-05-28T21:36:42.961-05:00Duane I agree as well, kind of a complicated forec...Duane I agree as well, kind of a complicated forecast for that time period, when would it rain, how much and where would the heaviest precip's be. I was calling for some places to get 5-7" through Memorial Day, I was a little shy in some spots, (well ok a lot shy in some spots). I ended up with 6" in my backyard, for the week. <br /><br />Turning my attention to next weekend, Saturday looks to see some sun with a high of 72° a 20% chance of rain, totals should be less than a 1/10 of a inch. Sunday look fabulous with sunny skies and a high 77° Dew points should stay south of 55 for the weekend.<br /><br />Monday should see a return of 80°+ along with higher dew points as it looks like we could once again get into a period of disturbed weather.randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-52731291862722661282012-05-28T21:12:08.103-05:002012-05-28T21:12:08.103-05:00Yea, good assessment, Duane. The Saturday forecast...Yea, good assessment, Duane. The Saturday forecast was 4-days-out as of Tuesday so that was a legitimately poor forecast (or the models did a poor job). In fact, the morning forecast on Saturday (for Saturday) was not very good. Some, including MPR, said the afternoon would be "relatively pleasant." I'd say it was just this side of a washout.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-30416739603664916872012-05-28T19:08:12.515-05:002012-05-28T19:08:12.515-05:0064/92/80...those were the official temps at MSP fo...64/92/80...those were the official temps at MSP for Sat, Sun, and Mon. So, Saturday no one was really that close (The Weather Channel was closest, and was still off by 5 degrees). Sunday goes to the Trib (good call by P. Douglas), and Monday both the Trib and KSTP were pretty close. I wouldn't be too harsh though since these were forcasts several days out. Still though, props to those who got it pretty damn close.Duanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10787345530045701289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-5456189529558758522012-05-27T22:21:17.714-05:002012-05-27T22:21:17.714-05:00Looks like the stuff to the SW of the Twin Cities ...Looks like the stuff to the SW of the Twin Cities is starting to push to the east as the line continues to develop. So those of us in the eastern metro will likely get something a little later tonight.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-37707109647226379342012-05-27T20:20:02.666-05:002012-05-27T20:20:02.666-05:00Seems like an odd line keeping most of the rain we...Seems like an odd line keeping most of the rain west of the 35E line.... last 3-4 major rains I've watched it all go by just to the west of Rosemount. I hope this doesn't continue on into winter. (yes, I am already looking forward to snow)My Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09892532699917298737noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-35240828228127054462012-05-27T18:37:22.058-05:002012-05-27T18:37:22.058-05:00Well in regards to temps we got into the low 90...Well in regards to temps we got into the low 90's,so Mr. Douglas takes the cake on that,in terms of weather(precip) this weekend....Friday was nice,Saturday I wouldn't call a washout but it rained enough of the time to spoil any outdoor activities,Sunday was just plain disgusting out,unless your one that loves high heat and humidity,it has stayed dry the whole day,but now as we head into the evening hours storms are gathering and firing from NW Nebraska,NE Iowa and So. MN,moving NNE,it should be a rainy/stormy night in and the metro.....but this should all clear out for a beautiful Memorial Day with less humidity and heat..........Happy Memorial Day everyone and stay sky aware tonight!big daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-41169455876432659622012-05-26T10:57:32.681-05:002012-05-26T10:57:32.681-05:00Sunday could be a very active day, with the main t...Sunday could be a very active day, with the main threat for severe coming with a cold front moving east across MN during the evening and overnight hours. All three modes of severe should be possible with it, however I think the hail and damaging winds will be a bigger factor than tornadoes. At this time, I believe areas of SW MN up into central MN will stand the best shot at perhaps seeing a tornado or two, since initiation should be somewhere in that vicinity. At the evening goes on, it should form into a nice line and become a damaging wind threat. Unless some overnight storms really screw with Sunday's temps, temps should easily get into the 90's. That will be plenty of instability for some nice storms to get going. The NWS mentioned a greater tornado threat if a mesolow could form...which is quite common with convective complexes. Stay tuned to forecasts, as many will be outside and perhaps away from TV's or radios.Duanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10787345530045701289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-22116292999411666882012-05-25T12:35:58.223-05:002012-05-25T12:35:58.223-05:00So Sunday appears to be the big day for us. Everyb...So Sunday appears to be the big day for us. Everybody seems to be in agreement that there will be an outbreak of some magnitude. I don't know a whole lot yet as far as reading models goes, but from what I do know I see a lot of ingredients coming together.<br /><br />However, since I'm still pretty novice when it comes to all this I'm curious as to what the experts on this site are thinking. Anybody have any thoughts yet?Neilnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-63675228539971943392012-05-24T22:58:42.591-05:002012-05-24T22:58:42.591-05:00Snow? I like any mention of snow. I will be dream...Snow? I like any mention of snow. I will be dreaming of stalled fronts in winter!!Plymouth Weather Lovernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-78185123779674352912012-05-24T10:02:21.024-05:002012-05-24T10:02:21.024-05:00If only we got stalled cold fronts in winters lol....If only we got stalled cold fronts in winters lol.CWY2190https://www.blogger.com/profile/07489877587725781507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-42139903480051130482012-05-24T09:55:07.843-05:002012-05-24T09:55:07.843-05:00Man did it rain last night and thru the overnight....Man did it rain last night and thru the overnight.........2.55 inches in the rain bucket here in Golden Valley,imagine if this situation occured in winter(of course we wouldn't be so lucky)but we would be sitting on about 30 inches of snow.........but hey at least we don't have to hear about drought anymore.big daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-8983461389161568362012-05-23T22:34:07.203-05:002012-05-23T22:34:07.203-05:00Per the RPM model, it looks like the stall won'...Per the RPM model, it looks like the stall won't really happen till near midnight. <br /><br />Here's the maps, with the line representing the approx. area of the front. Going from 06z to 09z, the line shifts slightly back to the west, which leads me to belive that is the stalling point. <br /><br />06z: http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m203/duanewolter/RPM1.gif<br /><br />09z: http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m203/duanewolter/RPM2.gifDuanenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-46281353691723752412012-05-23T21:03:43.057-05:002012-05-23T21:03:43.057-05:00It came into western St. Paul about 15 minutes ago...It came into western St. Paul about 15 minutes ago. Looks like it's more or less on schedule.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-38033126941326596432012-05-23T20:56:18.264-05:002012-05-23T20:56:18.264-05:00The rain started at 20:48 at my house. We'll ...The rain started at 20:48 at my house. We'll see how long this lasts.Disco80https://www.blogger.com/profile/15712370163841412634noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-53040813107367123872012-05-23T19:33:54.338-05:002012-05-23T19:33:54.338-05:00Has the stall begun? Looks like storms have ceased...Has the stall begun? Looks like storms have ceased to make eastward progress.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-86719731196576633652012-05-23T19:08:11.507-05:002012-05-23T19:08:11.507-05:00Ahh, ok. It's the ridge that is out to our ea...Ahh, ok. It's the ridge that is out to our east. The ridge is quite strong, and will pretty much slow the advancement of things behind it. This will be the case until the ridge breaks down. I'm sure there are others that can go into even more detail about the specifics, but that is pretty much the basic explination...strong ridge of high pressure out east.Duanenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-22404836889386097472012-05-23T19:03:09.861-05:002012-05-23T19:03:09.861-05:00Yes, models are consistent. But I asked why. Is ...Yes, models are consistent. But I asked why. Is it because the winds are out of the south and so strong?Disco80https://www.blogger.com/profile/15712370163841412634noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-65342873529303017182012-05-23T15:54:49.965-05:002012-05-23T15:54:49.965-05:00Forecast models have been pretty consistent with i...Forecast models have been pretty consistent with it either stalling, or moving east very slowly. It is pretty evident looking at the wind profiles on the models that the front is very slow to move. At this point it looks like it will stall pretty close to the metro area, if not right overtop of it.Duanenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-7437627834293397622012-05-23T12:11:10.168-05:002012-05-23T12:11:10.168-05:00Here's a question. The large amount of rain f...Here's a question. The large amount of rain forecast for today and tomorrow is the result of a stalled cold front. Right now the front isn't stalled -- how do they know that it will stall?Disco80https://www.blogger.com/profile/15712370163841412634noreply@blogger.com