tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post2171757749054802870..comments2024-03-18T20:11:18.451-05:00Comments on The Minnesota Forecaster: Snowy Start to MarchBillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comBlogger58125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-25757092181081831432019-05-04T07:11:07.128-05:002019-05-04T07:11:07.128-05:00Have you been thinking about remodeling your home?...Have you been thinking about remodeling your home? Keep in mind that you can often achieve your goal without a giant expense. 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Shoveled for ten minutes and asphalt driveway is all white again. <a href="https://proweb365.com" rel="nofollow">Minnesota Design</a>Alice Grayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08455832208942839451noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-25724959205564140542019-03-04T00:23:26.437-06:002019-03-04T00:23:26.437-06:00New thread for what might be coming this weekend.New thread for what might be coming this weekend.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-6619919175868706292019-03-03T18:09:26.550-06:002019-03-03T18:09:26.550-06:00Yeah, it's already getting a lot of hype. I as...Yeah, it's already getting a lot of hype. I asked on Mr. Novak's FB page if there are any 'signs' because of all the talk about next weekend... but I haven't had a chance to go back into FB to see if there is a response. I can't believe how many times we have said to Bill, 'Time for a new thread' the past month due to snow, snow, and more snow. :+)WeatherGeekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14741160280149154934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-41007593607766186132019-03-03T18:02:14.667-06:002019-03-03T18:02:14.667-06:00KARE11 weekend weather person said there was growi...KARE11 weekend weather person said there was growing confidence for significant snow Saturday. Typical TV nonsense. It’s almost a week out. GFS shows decent show, Euro is a little more north. Too early to get excited. At least it will be getting warmer. Not Paul Douglashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16778922218590382489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-55057535426162728942019-03-03T15:54:34.770-06:002019-03-03T15:54:34.770-06:00NWS has some skin in the game already for Saturday...NWS has some skin in the game already for Saturday. Going with a “snow likely” forecast and saying in their discussion another impactful accumulating snow event is “trending up”. Buckle up!Samnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-24690982604149987832019-03-03T11:49:40.738-06:002019-03-03T11:49:40.738-06:0012Z GFS already showing a foot of snow for next we...12Z GFS already showing a foot of snow for next weekend! Potential growing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-59954836253567467822019-03-03T10:16:48.791-06:002019-03-03T10:16:48.791-06:00Weather channel app already has 4-8” for Saturday,...Weather channel app already has 4-8” for Saturday, a little premature in my opinion but it shows the potential is there! Keep watching everyone my gut feeling is your snow piles in your yard will be getting much higher.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-12602690222863221972019-03-03T08:14:18.296-06:002019-03-03T08:14:18.296-06:00Yup, especially Saturday looks like a negative til...Yup, especially Saturday looks like a negative tilted powerhouse panhandle hooker headed our way. Heavy snow with blizzard conditions not out of the question in fact chances are increasing but were still 6 days out....Joenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-54108334186496971732019-03-02T20:17:06.434-06:002019-03-02T20:17:06.434-06:00More snow talk later next week! Thursday and Satur...More snow talk later next week! Thursday and Saturday has snowy potential near MSP! The winter that keeps on giving....Samnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-58490808794894790122019-03-02T16:58:19.392-06:002019-03-02T16:58:19.392-06:00Thanks for sharing how you do your forecasts (not ...Thanks for sharing how you do your forecasts (not that it all makes sense to me ha ha)..... I think it's also an 'art' and not just science in that you make it work right for you based on that configuration of rules above, and you are very gifted at it in the winter. Truly gifted at putting the science, smarts, models and rules together time after time. I am happy I discovered this blog and your forecasts several years ago, and I thank Bill for having this blog up and running.WeatherGeekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14741160280149154934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-53018230117000746322019-03-02T11:41:28.217-06:002019-03-02T11:41:28.217-06:00Oh, one last rule...and it is an important one.
- ...Oh, one last rule...and it is an important one.<br />- Don't be lazy! Just looking at QPF and/or potential snow output from a guidance & going with it will ALWAYS get you in trouble. Justify your 4cast with hard work & evidence = put time into your 4cast.Novak Weatherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04729250774037146864noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-17222420029896029122019-03-02T11:39:01.539-06:002019-03-02T11:39:01.539-06:00I have a handful of rules that I live by when 4cas...I have a handful of rules that I live by when 4casting winter storms. They are:<br />- Always forecast from the top of the atmosphere then work your way down. <br />- The last parameter you should focus on is model QPF. (Don't trust it).<br />- Dynamics rarely ever lie.<br />- Concentrate on jet streaks & know how to utilize them.<br />- When there is no guidance consensus, place more weight in the Euro. Novak Weatherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04729250774037146864noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-85269584788289641702019-03-02T07:11:58.782-06:002019-03-02T07:11:58.782-06:00This points out the problem with many of the TV fo...This points out the problem with many of the TV folks. They look at the latest model runs, read the numbers, and they have their forecast. Dahl seems to at least take chances, probably because he’s done it for so long. <br /><br />Novak is having a superstar like winter. Pretty amazing and he has explained his reasons before the storms. I hate all of the snow (sorry PWL) but it has been fun to watch the storms. <br /><br />Now can we please warm up so I can think about golf?Not Paul Douglashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16778922218590382489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-43454828729980619602019-03-02T06:02:05.580-06:002019-03-02T06:02:05.580-06:00And, I'd like to add one more bit of data: MSP...And, I'd like to add one more bit of data: MSP airport snow totals this season: 62.4 inches: 20.3" over the normal averageWeatherGeekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14741160280149154934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-11461317419109778192019-03-02T04:46:21.249-06:002019-03-02T04:46:21.249-06:00MSP airport final for yesterday: 5.6"; Chanha...MSP airport final for yesterday: 5.6"; Chanhassen: 5". Excellent forecast from Mr. Novak.<br />WeatherGeekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14741160280149154934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-25016758334561731552019-03-02T01:09:21.621-06:002019-03-02T01:09:21.621-06:00Many locations close to 6”. Did anyone but Novak f...Many locations close to 6”. Did anyone but Novak forecast that?Joel Fischerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16151003904789150403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-83698009561970055382019-03-01T23:42:06.669-06:002019-03-01T23:42:06.669-06:005.5” Golden Valley 5.5” Golden Valley bigdaddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-5090290829535350912019-03-01T21:11:13.432-06:002019-03-01T21:11:13.432-06:005.1” near Long Lake. Lightest snow I’ve ever shov...5.1” near Long Lake. Lightest snow I’ve ever shoveled!JAWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07135780354845476308noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-80128032757164696362019-03-01T19:44:59.710-06:002019-03-01T19:44:59.710-06:00As of 7:15 p.m. tonight NWS MSP airport: 3.9"...As of 7:15 p.m. tonight NWS MSP airport: 3.9"; Chan: 4.0"WeatherGeekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14741160280149154934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-13475691195934454942019-03-01T18:07:10.981-06:002019-03-01T18:07:10.981-06:00Just heard Laura Betker on KARE 11 say that we got...Just heard Laura Betker on KARE 11 say that we got more snow than they were predicting, which was 3-4 inches. She showed some 5 and 6 inch reports. I would like to point out that Mr. Novak nailed the forecast again (4-6+ inch forecast)! Nice job, Novak! We appreciate your expertise!Schnee Meisternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-48146130412671045882019-03-01T17:09:28.275-06:002019-03-01T17:09:28.275-06:00Damn it!!! I really wished this was a leap year. W...Damn it!!! I really wished this was a leap year. We could be challenging our all time snowiest month ever right now! I like breaking records especially when you get soooo close. Oh well the snow is surely coming down nice and pretty! Good job Novak!bigdaddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-53268728572290037252019-03-01T17:08:10.234-06:002019-03-01T17:08:10.234-06:005” in Lino lakes area at 5 pm and still coming dow...5” in Lino lakes area at 5 pm and still coming down hard. Jasonnoreply@blogger.com