tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post23348714603575953..comments2024-03-26T10:45:14.207-05:00Comments on The Minnesota Forecaster: Some Warm Predictions for Next SundayBillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comBlogger66125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-78085187465125665912012-01-22T16:55:07.336-06:002012-01-22T16:55:07.336-06:00From what I can tell, today's high was 24 (per...From what I can tell, today's high was 24 (perhaps it will go a degree higher). I'm thinking this was not the best long-range forecast for any of the weather outlets.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-20811400761184988202012-01-18T12:41:20.768-06:002012-01-18T12:41:20.768-06:00Per latest blog post, I'm curious to gather th...Per latest blog post, I'm curious to gather the group's thinking regarding weather apps: http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/2012/01/lets-talk-weather-apps.htmlBillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-16638645404180029652012-01-18T01:43:09.728-06:002012-01-18T01:43:09.728-06:00I guess sleeping during the day,going to a school ...I guess sleeping during the day,going to a school open house and then back to work you miss alot,wow!Alot was said weatherwise and otherwise from last post and I'm sure we dont want to rehatch it any further,but I second what Randy had to say @Anonymous(who disrespected Novak)put a damn name on it,be mature and stand behind your name......Novak keep up the good work,its been a diffcult winter,all of us have missed in some form or fashion this winter(including the professionals and the NWS),I always look forward to what you have to say cuz we are all weather junkies,now please go find me my snow and bring it home.big daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-961122184094622472012-01-17T22:42:22.834-06:002012-01-17T22:42:22.834-06:00Just up a brand spanking new post to discuss upcom...Just up a brand spanking new post to discuss upcoming sub-zero cold and possible Friday snow.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-58464802356207696552012-01-17T22:34:53.539-06:002012-01-17T22:34:53.539-06:00Interesting. Ian Leonard was just saying the lates...Interesting. Ian Leonard was just saying the latest models hinted that it was coming north, more toward the Twin Cities.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-69270249844407644412012-01-17T22:31:32.061-06:002012-01-17T22:31:32.061-06:00@Novak, this might be like the winter of 2007-2008...@Novak, this might be like the winter of 2007-2008 where it seemed like everything went south and east during the heart of winter. but as the jet stream lifted north in march and april minnesota finally got some decent snowstorms. i think we have to wait until march and april for our big snows this year.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-77053494922365570522012-01-17T22:24:15.320-06:002012-01-17T22:24:15.320-06:00Figures. Could the latest 00z GFS be any more of ...Figures. Could the latest 00z GFS be any more of a buzz-kill for central MN on Friday? The way the models are trending, snow will bypass the whole state of MN. The Arctic air will definitely attempt to suppress this storm to the south. We will have to wait for the 12z runs to see if the track continues to shift further south than expected.<br /><br />Unbelievable.NovakWeathernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-91244414819312208282012-01-17T20:13:00.109-06:002012-01-17T20:13:00.109-06:00The NWS has the word "snow" in almost ev...The NWS has the word "snow" in almost every line of the forecast... but I bet through all those days we get nothing but a dusting.My Bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09892532699917298737noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-40435822083232270042012-01-17T18:55:40.515-06:002012-01-17T18:55:40.515-06:00Looks like forecasters are really adjusting temper...Looks like forecasters are really adjusting temperature outlooks. The forecast high for Thursday in my area is now a balmy +2, and Sunday now looks like it will struggle - as Novak predicted - to get above freezing. Of course, that means any precip early next week would likely be snow. It also means that it will be tougher for precipitation to make it this far north with the colder air in place.ABnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-27745869571519649422012-01-17T15:32:39.053-06:002012-01-17T15:32:39.053-06:00looking at other modeling that has come in this af...looking at other modeling that has come in this afternoon, I think even the GFS is to far north, looks like the favored area will be far sw MN and possibly the far southern tier of counties, looks like now that no Adv/watch will be needed. Cold dry air looks to be the culprit.randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-63583654030991659492012-01-17T15:31:49.427-06:002012-01-17T15:31:49.427-06:00Yes, the Euro is back with the storm again, and ho...Yes, the Euro is back with the storm again, and honestly I am a little surprised it is having the issues that it is trying to get a handle on this system. It just goes to show that trying to forecast things this winter seems to be much more of a pain than in previous winters. If you believe the GFS or ECMWF, then probably the I-90 cooridor would see the highest accumulations. However the NAM and SREF are further north with the system, putting the metro into the heart of things. NAM has been consistant, but so has the GFS. Looks like another waiting game to see what happens after the system comes ashore.Duanenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-53635919684084294222012-01-17T13:11:58.814-06:002012-01-17T13:11:58.814-06:00Simply put....Thanks BillSimply put....Thanks Billrandyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-40159953519789869952012-01-17T13:09:29.871-06:002012-01-17T13:09:29.871-06:00The ECMWF is now back with the Friday storm. If t...The ECMWF is now back with the Friday storm. If the track of this storm is true to model predictions, expect 5" to as much as 8" south and east from a line from Mankato to Eau Claire, this would include Reg Wing. What will ARX and MPX do??? If the data keeps presenting itslef as it does now, I think a Watch would be warranted overnight on Wednesday or early Thursday morning. At this time my gut tells me it will mostly be a miss for the metro. But will it do what has happened almost all season??? My gut tells me yes. Personally I'm going with a non Nam solution.randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-82922810452189646122012-01-17T12:56:43.487-06:002012-01-17T12:56:43.487-06:00@Everyone .... Stimulating conversation here.... a...@Everyone .... Stimulating conversation here.... and in the words of Rodney King, let's all try to get along. :-)<br /><br />A few passing thoughts:<br /><br />There is obviously a difference between forecasting as a "public awareness heads up" and forecasting as "sport." I initially set this blog up to grade and evaluate forecasters based strictly on their accuracy (and more specifically, for forecasts at a single location: MSP Airport). For lack of a better way of saying it, I wanted to "out" forecasters, primarily television mets, who tended to the extreme -- i.e., predict excessively hot or cold temperatures, excessive drought or precip, or simply suggest things that my gut felt an overwhelming sense of "really??" I'd hoped to gather data that would verify or contradict my suspicions. At some point, sooner than later, I'd like to write up something about what I've learned in the process. Friends often ask me, "so who do you think is the most accurate?" and I feel compelled to give them an in-depth response, as I don't think it's a simple answer.<br /><br />Anyway, it's clear to me that there are people who share the strict forecast skill assessment perspective as well as people who want to talk about the models, theories, data, etc., and I welcome that as well. I'm pleased that this blog seems to cater to both interests.<br /><br />I also take pride in this being a clean, "intelligent" blog that focuses attention on weather and forecasters, and steers clear of any personal attacks. I'm reluctant to delete comments as I'm a fan of open discussion, but I will delete opinions that seem to go beyond those criteria.<br /><br />Not sure what all I'm saying, but those are a few thoughts I wanted to share.<br /><br />Onward and upward!Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-85653586827279325542012-01-17T12:48:08.030-06:002012-01-17T12:48:08.030-06:00I agree with Plymouth 110% and the others who have...I agree with Plymouth 110% and the others who have responded to Anonymous's sophomoric posts. Bring on the weather model discussion and speculation!DysonGuyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12351540636292459647noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-28947082287457147272012-01-17T12:40:17.425-06:002012-01-17T12:40:17.425-06:00You know what, I come to this board because I am a...You know what, I come to this board because I am a weather lover, as my user name indicates. I will not let a troll get under my skin. The fact that I even acknowledged this person here is more than I should do. With that said, I think that Bill should remove his posts, at least the ones with the inappropriate language and references. I don't read this board to be offended. <br /><br />Novak--You Rock!! I know there have been busts this year. But let's keep talking about the next potential storm. I live for that. If a model or chart shows it, then talk about it. I am not alone when I say that I look forward to the next comment from Novak. Please do not stop posting here. I follow his Twitter page and hope that he posts as often as he can. Don't buy into the trolls, Novak. They sit back and enjoy it when they get under someone's skin. Don't give them that satisfaction!<br /><br />So...what is the most recent on the next couple of snow events??Plymouth Weather Lovernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-2131619094149570702012-01-17T12:20:50.829-06:002012-01-17T12:20:50.829-06:00By the way, all of this talk does bring up an inte...By the way, all of this talk does bring up an interesting question:<br /><br />If MOS statistics/data shows that the MSP airport will get 3.5" of snow tonight, yet an MSP forecaster neglects to forecast snow, is this considered irresponsible even if we DON'T receive a flake?NovakWeathernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-69600415592801914642012-01-17T12:16:19.296-06:002012-01-17T12:16:19.296-06:00Anonymous: You are clueless AND gutless.
I don...Anonymous: You are clueless AND gutless.<br /><br />I don't know of anybody on this BLOG board that would come straight out and guarantee a "dumping" 6 days in advance. Hell, I don't know of anybody on this board who guarantees snow even 1 day in advance. We all know (except for yourself) that a bust can occur at anytime, even as the storm is on top of you. Nothing is a given in the weather forecasting industry. <br /><br />Once again, one of the goals on this board and in the weather forecasting industry in general is to alert readers/public of the "potential" for weather. No weather forecaster, in there right mind, would guarantee a forecast. If you can't take our industry with a grain of salt, then you are truly incompetent and should leave this board.<br /><br />By the way, we all would love to hear your day by day interpretations of what will happen the rest of the winter, so have at it. I'm sure it would be comical.NovakWeathernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-71781084136346338632012-01-17T12:00:55.752-06:002012-01-17T12:00:55.752-06:00Marc, here is another great site for more models, ...Marc, here is another great site for more models, but use the weather underground site for snowfall amounts for the ECMWF.<br /><br />http://wxcaster.com/models_main.htm<br /><br />about 2/3rds of the way down you will see this<br /><br />00 and 12Z Model Forecast Charts (entire CONUS) from ECMWF, UKMET, JMA JP35, and GEMrandyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-385316605304717912012-01-17T11:55:26.882-06:002012-01-17T11:55:26.882-06:00Time for me to get on the soapbox as well. I real...Time for me to get on the soapbox as well. I really have no problem when people come in here and call a bust for what it is, after all it's called a forecast and not a certain cast. What gets me going is when someone puts the tag Anonymous on their post and then proceeds to rip a individual to no end. IMO that is a shallow, cowardly act and should not be permitted on this site. Most of us that come here do so for 3 reason's. 1) they relay on winter for a income, 2) they partake in the recreational opportunities that winter has to offer or 3) they are just flat out weather enthusiast.randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-53077001468121585332012-01-17T11:54:09.876-06:002012-01-17T11:54:09.876-06:00I think Migz said it best in a comment he left on ...I think Migz said it best in a comment he left on Jan 14th: <br /><br />"And I was really surprised to find the wide spectrum of interpretations. Now I just read, take in the parts I can fathom, and thank ya'll for making your posts and helping a total amateur weather junkie/storm chaser understand, bit by bit, what goes in to making a forecast."<br /><br />Anonymous, I think you need to relax and put things in perspective. This is a site for WEATHER FANATICS. Some are amateurs, like me, who just like to read what these guys think about the models and local forecasters. Some have been reading model data since I was in diapers.<br /><br />I think you are confusing "hype" for "excitement". There are TV-guys (and blog guys) who are notorious for hyping. They'll tease the 10pm news with a quip like "Is there a mega snowstorm brewing for next week?!" The guys on this site report what the models are saying, will OPENLY admit that there's room for interpretation, but will sometimes let it out that they are excited for the possibility of a storm. <br /><br />On a personal note, I am VERY thankful to Bill and all the guys for contributing what they do to this site. I don't just go to Accuweather and blindly accept it as forecast-truth anymore. I check here to see what all the sites, stations, and weather-junkies in the area are forecasting and take them all with a grain of salt!JAWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07135780354845476308noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-38224726068352132572012-01-17T11:21:44.491-06:002012-01-17T11:21:44.491-06:00@Marc If you go to wunderground, and take a look a...@Marc If you go to wunderground, and take a look at their wundermap, they have access to some of the data the European (ECMWF) has. It is a fairly basic navigating site, but if you need any assistance just let me know. Enjoy!Duanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10787345530045701289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-86646251786509022782012-01-17T11:04:18.174-06:002012-01-17T11:04:18.174-06:00Sooooo, anyone see any good movies lately?Sooooo, anyone see any good movies lately?MarkyMark (No Funky Bunch)noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-28533498640590497792012-01-17T11:00:40.457-06:002012-01-17T11:00:40.457-06:00Focusing some attention to Thursday night-friday s...Focusing some attention to Thursday night-friday storm... The NAM and GFS models are really getting my hopes yet. I don't have the access to the other models or I just can't find them, but it looks as if we could see a nice 6+ inches for somebody around me (Red Wing) come Friday. Don't know why the NWS and the others are quiet on the storm when the models are looking so impressiveMarcnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-59123161056338392922012-01-17T10:54:16.670-06:002012-01-17T10:54:16.670-06:00"No one hypes anything on this board" WT..."No one hypes anything on this board" WTF Novak? You are Hype-in- Chief procurer. A guy comes here to look and see what the weather might be and all you read is that 4-8 inches of snow is a real good bet for the TC and not one Met ever mentioned it. Yet you vagabond bond friends of Indie PC model watchers think were going to get a dumping 6 days from now. <br /><br />I personally don't care if you can't predict what will happen, but don't disguise your hype for snow as a public service to the "Little People" as fair warning when my morning piss has more moisture value then a Mon/Tuesday snow storm.<br /><br />If you all want snow.....great, let it snow like a mother effer. Just don't hide your like for snow as a public service for all us dweebs! <br /><br />Have a good day Mr. Novak.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com