tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post237775253269196199..comments2024-03-26T10:45:14.207-05:00Comments on The Minnesota Forecaster: "Dumbbell" Weather Pattern to Threaten Minnesota on SundayBillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comBlogger68125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-62788728134333957812014-01-28T21:08:47.428-06:002014-01-28T21:08:47.428-06:00New video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ip6xwRU...New video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ip6xwRUYwhI<br />Please leave feedback if you're inclined!Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-70976156912030410682014-01-28T15:09:30.025-06:002014-01-28T15:09:30.025-06:00Continuing to watch this system for Thursday. Upp...Continuing to watch this system for Thursday. Upper level dynamics not looking all that bad and somewhat of a northerly trend is happening in the model runs. 18z NAM still showing an impressive jet streak to the south, with parts of MN and WI in a favorable area for snow development. At this point it's tracking a surface low across the MN/IA border on east towards La Crosse, WI. An upper level trough moves through as well, which should help to enhance lift across the area. It's still far too early to put any bullseyes down, but this system still is certainly worth watching since it would likely affect the Thursday morning commute.<br /><br />In regards to the travel impact maps, those are mostly for people who will need to go out and commute in this. Moderate simply means that you should anticipate some problems. It doesn't specify amounts or says it will be a huge storm or anything like that. We know that even 1 to 3 inches of snow can cause big issues during rush hour. I have a feeling though, that those "moderate" problems will eventually need to be bumped north a bit if the models continue to trend things to the north. We'll keep on watchin' it!Duanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10787345530045701289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-12395843561981125942014-01-28T11:33:06.718-06:002014-01-28T11:33:06.718-06:00hearing lots of 2-4 amounts south of TC, NAM and G...hearing lots of 2-4 amounts south of TC, NAM and GFS picking up on the event with 2-4 and some 4-6 in extreme southern MN. Novak is on a good string as of late and he has a moderate travel impact on wens-thurs snow. would like to hear more discussion on the possible weekend storm.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-71454919508966186562014-01-28T10:56:57.529-06:002014-01-28T10:56:57.529-06:00Except for Mr. Novak has MSP and points south in h...Except for Mr. Novak has MSP and points south in his "moderate" travel impact zone, whatever that means!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-45081325225032500102014-01-28T10:53:31.222-06:002014-01-28T10:53:31.222-06:00I havent seen anything that suggests more than jus...I havent seen anything that suggests more than just a dusting for MSP tomorrow.CWY2190https://www.blogger.com/profile/07489877587725781507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-29311086460454736832014-01-28T09:07:01.748-06:002014-01-28T09:07:01.748-06:00NWS not really saying the metro will receive snow ...NWS not really saying the metro will receive snow tommorrow night(20%) and their graphic keeps any snowfall south of metro.....yet just heard Dave Dahl's radio spot on KS95 and he said 2-4" of snow tommorrow night "from the Twin Cities on south", also Mike Lynch on WCCO radio said "light snow will affect the AM rush Thursdy morning"......so any truth to this?, will we be receiving measurable snow after all?<br />Also whats the deal with Saturday....EURO shows snow with an inverted trough, according to the NWS discussion.....any legs with that one?<br />Thoughts anyone?bigdaddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-53215073553998757762014-01-27T17:32:00.299-06:002014-01-27T17:32:00.299-06:00It's not so much wanting the snow as much as i...It's not so much wanting the snow as much as it is not wanting the cold. I echo bigdaddy's thoughts. I enjoy snowmobiling as well as other outdoor winter activities but it is difficult to get out and enjoy the snow that we have with temperatures constantly being frigid. <br /><br /> I do enjoy snowstorms though, and would prefer that they happen on weekends that don't involve a lot of travel. Yeah, someone always has somewhere they have to be but the lower traffic times are usually ideal. I also like the snow because it will at least help some in regards to some drought issues we have across the area. Maybe some lakes and rivers will get a bit more water in them. I would be very curious to see how much water is actually in the snow we have. It seems like most of the snow's source has been from clippers which usually don't care much moisture with them at all. Still need to think about spring and farmers needing moisture for their fields. Frost depth has to be pretty deep given how cold things have been, so the more moisture we can have available the better since the initial melting stuff will likely just run off.Duanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10787345530045701289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-88635449393312344652014-01-27T12:18:10.587-06:002014-01-27T12:18:10.587-06:00Oh don't get me wrong I'm not complaining ...Oh don't get me wrong I'm not complaining @anonymous(9:27am).....I definitely am aware of those numbers and love those numbers!<br />@Disco.....totally agree theres more then enough snow to partake in winter activities....problem is you can't enjoy it when its subzero temps or windchills(unless your bundled like the pillsbury dough boy and walk like a penguin).<br />As a snow lover I always want more snow and to track storms and their various solutions that go with them, that fascinates me....and it is no secret that I have talked about a snow competition that me and my brother have yearly which we wage on.....so yeah I need the snow to keep coming, yes it does mess up.commutes but if were comparing -15 and snow....I will take snow everytime over arctic air.bigdaddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-46902412262268666922014-01-27T09:59:43.387-06:002014-01-27T09:59:43.387-06:00I'll take -15 over snow. The cold weather doe...I'll take -15 over snow. The cold weather doesn't impact my commute as much as even a quarter inch of snow; it's safer getting my child to pre-school. There is enough damn snow for winter activities (sledding, skiing, etc.), so why exactly do you want more snow? Just for bragging rights or what...?<br /><br />As bigdaddy mentions, even the NWS is getting in on the whiny game:<br /><br />as mentioned in the first paragraph...the shifting of the atlantic<br />ridge to the west will set the stage for more significant precip to<br />our south in early february. well...right now...both the gfs/ecmwf<br />snow a significant winter storm coming out of the srn plains and<br />heading into the great lakes around the 4th or 5th of february. of<br />course while this is going on what will we be doing? staring down<br />the throat of another 1050 mb high with h85 temps down around -30c<br />coming out of canada of course! Disconoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-56882578625036329702014-01-27T09:37:55.988-06:002014-01-27T09:37:55.988-06:00Love the perspective!Love the perspective!Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-87392029576716565202014-01-27T09:27:57.523-06:002014-01-27T09:27:57.523-06:00You guys are never happy. MSP is sitting at 33.3 i...You guys are never happy. MSP is sitting at 33.3 inches which is for a change above average as of today. Last year we had 17.4 and we ended up with 67.<br />There are 13 inches of snow on the ground.<br />What else do you want?<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-55521908429230708502014-01-27T08:34:01.093-06:002014-01-27T08:34:01.093-06:00If your a fan of more snow and less arctic air you...If your a fan of more snow and less arctic air you will be depressed to read, like me, the last paragraph of this morning's NWS area discussion!bigdaddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-24312610162551403152014-01-27T01:53:19.847-06:002014-01-27T01:53:19.847-06:00Nice post Duane, attention now really turns to the...Nice post Duane, attention now really turns to the Feb 4th and 5th time frame. All three models now show a large storm coming out of southern TX dropping heavy snows from OK through southern KS into northern Missouri through IA and the Chicago area. I don't think it can cut up this far north due to the position of the axis of the EPO ridge, that would have to retrograde about another 300 miles or so to the west. However the pattern change that has been talked about looks to be real. Here is the the ensemble mean off the GFS for that time frame, that is fairly impressive this far out, that storm to me looks real.<br /><br />http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014012700/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_33.png<br /><br />BTW that site updates the GFS ensemble means by midnight.<br /><br />http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/<br /><br />randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-55678797387626561132014-01-26T23:59:51.755-06:002014-01-26T23:59:51.755-06:00Once again, nice job to Dr. Novak on calling for t...Once again, nice job to Dr. Novak on calling for this blizzard days ago and really stressing how dangerous conditions were going to be today. I would say that this system from a wind perspective really lived up to its billing. Many roads continue to be closed across Minnesota due to the blowing snow. The only thing that was off a bit was the fact that the heavy snow band actually set itself up along and east of the Mississippi river in Wisconsin. Not anyone's fault with that one, because even right up to the snow developing most of the short term models had the band further west. More proof that nature doesn't always do what the models say even a few hours before the event. <br /><br />5.2 inches of snow fell here and quite frankly it was about as perfect of snow making conditions as you can get. Flakes were big and it piled up quickly and was a high ratio snow (very very light and fluffy). It was fun watching it getting kicked up by the winds as I watched it out my patio door. I just hope that people stayed off the roads, and those who had to go out stayed safe. Arctic chill will be around for the next few days with us not seeing zero until probably Wednesday. <br /><br />No major storms in sight now, but we'll be watching a system that could develop and pass by to our south at the end of the week. Not much to it yet, but certainly could evolve into something. After that, we watch for that pattern shift of more troughing in the west and ridging in the east. The coldest air will be pushed just north of the border but not far enough that we won't have to worry about it again. It will be lurking around up there and I imagine any big storm system wouldn't have a problem pulling it south again. Weather service touched on this pattern shift with their overnight Saturday/early Sunday morning discussion. It may be that the main battle zone ends up setting up too far south leaving us back in a lull of a pattern but we'll see. It will be a snowy month for some. Also of note, the more snow places to our south get the more difficult it will be for us to warm come March and April with the southerly winds passing over snow pack and cooling. Certainly something to watch as we head into the month of February. Stay warm everyone!Duanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10787345530045701289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-2801081138560715102014-01-26T19:01:13.683-06:002014-01-26T19:01:13.683-06:00It looks like the core of the strongest winds is m...It looks like the core of the strongest winds is moving SE thru IA and NE right now. May not get much worse here.Disconoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-72374840252024860162014-01-26T15:53:58.810-06:002014-01-26T15:53:58.810-06:00Expanding the blizzard warning was the right call....Expanding the blizzard warning was the right call. Central Carver County has had sustained winds of 33 mph gusting to 45 for a couple hours now. MnDOT has the entire metro area listed as hazardous driving conditions. Chance the NWS expands the warning further east?ABnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-48886845462558845532014-01-26T13:27:55.003-06:002014-01-26T13:27:55.003-06:00If you can hold your own through February, you can...If you can hold your own through February, you can make a good stretch run in March (and April, if like last year). It's gonna be a horse race!Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-75252909312562841652014-01-26T13:19:50.538-06:002014-01-26T13:19:50.538-06:00As of today...I'm ahead 37-31(but he has the 2...As of today...I'm ahead 37-31(but he has the 20pt spread).....looks like a close one this year!bigdaddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-62432500914203700542014-01-26T10:00:57.868-06:002014-01-26T10:00:57.868-06:00I was wondering how the competition was going. Loo...I was wondering how the competition was going. Looks like a tight race this year.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-89404595022688242192014-01-26T09:37:13.664-06:002014-01-26T09:37:13.664-06:00As CWY2190 alluded to clippers do add up. MSP tota...As CWY2190 alluded to clippers do add up. MSP total was 3.4 from last night/this morning, that puts MSP 1.6" above average now even after a very slow November and almost double where we were at this time last year and we all know how long snow continued to fall last winter/spring.bigdaddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-66696933774759771652014-01-26T09:03:27.105-06:002014-01-26T09:03:27.105-06:002" in Golden Valley......now I appreciate the...2" in Golden Valley......now I appreciate the fact were getting snows but my bro is on my tail for our snow competition, I need some heavier storms to hit our area....some are saying February will be a better opportunity for us, I hope so!bigdaddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-16263858174495857192014-01-26T07:37:48.324-06:002014-01-26T07:37:48.324-06:00Yet were still 9" above average since Dec 1 a...Yet were still 9" above average since Dec 1 and at average since July 1. Those clippers add up.CWY2190https://www.blogger.com/profile/07489877587725781507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-44842751650010486942014-01-26T07:27:12.806-06:002014-01-26T07:27:12.806-06:00What's the biggest snow we've had this sea...What's the biggest snow we've had this season @ MSP? Is it only 4.4 inches? Kinda strange to almost be in Feb and not have had at least a 5 inch storm.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-61566562291740295652014-01-26T07:12:51.622-06:002014-01-26T07:12:51.622-06:00Maybe slightly over 2 in Mpls? Very nice morning o...Maybe slightly over 2 in Mpls? Very nice morning out there. Already got it plowed. No wind. Very calm. Roads are pretty good.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-40596683758111503872014-01-26T07:05:03.869-06:002014-01-26T07:05:03.869-06:00A solid 3 inches here in Apple Valley/Rosemount ov...A solid 3 inches here in Apple Valley/Rosemount overnight. How did everybody else fare?Schnee Meisternoreply@blogger.com