tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post2383541234485261309..comments2024-03-26T10:45:14.207-05:00Comments on The Minnesota Forecaster: Stunning Disparity Among Forecasters in Long Range ForecastBillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comBlogger69125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-81865999217370007432013-12-18T13:46:32.128-06:002013-12-18T13:46:32.128-06:00Saturday's -- https://www.facebook.com/TheWeat...Saturday's -- https://www.facebook.com/TheWeatherCentreDysonGuyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12351540636292459647noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-15770095915250952392013-12-18T13:43:40.292-06:002013-12-18T13:43:40.292-06:00For Thursday's system or Saturday's?For Thursday's system or Saturday's?JAWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07135780354845476308noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-53091988482233974342013-12-18T13:17:31.996-06:002013-12-18T13:17:31.996-06:0012Z EMCWF has actually moved NW to agree with the ...12Z EMCWF has actually moved NW to agree with the GFS! Somewhat shocking. DysonGuyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12351540636292459647noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-40310615715166407722013-12-18T12:52:10.881-06:002013-12-18T12:52:10.881-06:00Amen to that!Amen to that!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-53677426953935703942013-12-18T12:00:13.898-06:002013-12-18T12:00:13.898-06:00Just a few days until one of my favorite days of t...Just a few days until one of my favorite days of the year: the winter solstice. Headin' back towards spring/summer very soon!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-55727677764166568152013-12-18T08:16:48.191-06:002013-12-18T08:16:48.191-06:00Remains to be seen, but it looks like last week...Remains to be seen, but it looks like last week's met.no forecast high of 36 for today might be correct. The Norwegians did something right!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-65017258462414066782013-12-18T07:56:45.810-06:002013-12-18T07:56:45.810-06:00With the last 5 runs of the deterministic ECMWF an...With the last 5 runs of the deterministic ECMWF and the lastest ECMWF ensembles following suite I don't know how you could bet against it. Therefore, its almost a certainty that this large storm stays south / southeast of MN.DysonGuyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12351540636292459647noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-24575890723283392082013-12-18T05:11:39.236-06:002013-12-18T05:11:39.236-06:00@Randyinchamplin your favorite Canadian GEM model ...@Randyinchamplin your favorite Canadian GEM model brings headline worthy snows into MSP for this weekend....verifying Dr.Novak nervousness on how close this storm can get to MSP.....are you buying/agreeing with it or you sticking with most everyones favorite the Euro model which keeps us high and dry(btw...the GFS is between the two)......NWS has introduced a slight chance(20%) of snow as far northwest as Red Wing for this weekend when yesterday it was all dry for the entire CWA.....heres hoping for another model wobble northwest.bigdaddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-17797521853464457102013-12-17T21:23:14.033-06:002013-12-17T21:23:14.033-06:00Maybe this storm will bring the dome down and save...Maybe this storm will bring the dome down and save all of us tax payers some deconstruction project costs!JAWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07135780354845476308noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-20444339398377412942013-12-17T19:49:46.571-06:002013-12-17T19:49:46.571-06:00Keep dreaming, very rare MSP gets 12 inches in a s...Keep dreaming, very rare MSP gets 12 inches in a storm these days let alone 20 inches. Move to Vermont or Maine they get a couple of those a year, here the planets need to aline.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-54428815243789630652013-12-17T18:30:23.272-06:002013-12-17T18:30:23.272-06:00I've already cancelled all of my plans this we...I've already cancelled all of my plans this weekend, assuming that it's going to move a couple hundred miles north and nail MSP with 20 inches of snow.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-2753234230603378842013-12-17T17:57:21.013-06:002013-12-17T17:57:21.013-06:00I can't believe nobody in the metro saw any sn...I can't believe nobody in the metro saw any snow at all last night. That is shocking to me. Like I said before, I went back and looked at radar and there were some decent returns that showed up over parts of the metro area. Tough to forecast that exact of a location, but maybe going with lower percentages would have covered for the spottiness of the snow.Duanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10787345530045701289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-68365680105532111522013-12-17T16:50:03.509-06:002013-12-17T16:50:03.509-06:00I hope you're right. Belinda on KARE 11 just ...I hope you're right. Belinda on KARE 11 just said maybe some light snow showers from the Thursday system and that's all. Dahl said earlier only a light dusting. Let's do the snow dance, everybody!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-28110599856016911892013-12-17T16:15:51.998-06:002013-12-17T16:15:51.998-06:00It is getting closer https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.aka...It is getting closer https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn2/1511869_621823394532384_1851319715_o.pngDysonGuyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12351540636292459647noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-58917632268678985152013-12-17T16:02:01.664-06:002013-12-17T16:02:01.664-06:00Clearly, TWC outdid the NWS last night. https://tw...Clearly, TWC outdid the NWS last night. https://twitter.com/MNforecaster/status/413066260486684672/photo/1<br />Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-50831261281329466652013-12-17T15:04:34.489-06:002013-12-17T15:04:34.489-06:00It's bad in the far western metro; not so much...It's bad in the far western metro; not so much anymore, but visibility was significantly reduced late morning/early afternoon.ABnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-89735362571739525042013-12-17T14:11:18.809-06:002013-12-17T14:11:18.809-06:00Doesn't seem like it to me, though I live in t...Doesn't seem like it to me, though I live in the urban core. Almost seem as though the NWS just wanted to dig into their bag of tricks.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-65306298325437485032013-12-17T14:08:56.299-06:002013-12-17T14:08:56.299-06:00Is this Weather Advisory for this afternoon really...Is this Weather Advisory for this afternoon really warranted?DysonGuyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12351540636292459647noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-3030262293357771502013-12-17T13:07:05.406-06:002013-12-17T13:07:05.406-06:00Euro model is in, and it does expand the deformati...Euro model is in, and it does expand the deformation zone closer to the area, but it's still SE of the metro. If anything, it brushes far SE Minnesota. Models have been fairly consistent with developing this major winter storm, and all the ingredients seem to be coming together. Trough coming through takes on a negative tilt, northern and southern jet phase, good temp contrast, and a good connection with the Gulf. All these things, plus several other things need to happen for this storm (or really any big storm) to happen. Remove one, and it becomes less impressive. I'm remaining hopeful that the models shift this thing even further northwest but the ridge in the southeast would have to build up more or the phasing would have to happen sooner to allow for the low to turn more to the northwest. Anyway, here's a look at the Euro for Sunday. Of note, the other models are further south with the Thursday snow, but that looks more like a 1 to 3 deal at the moment. <br /><br />http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m203/duanewolter/ecmwf_tprecip_mw_27_zps852e0b0c.pngDuanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10787345530045701289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-48257374907168110942013-12-17T12:21:36.384-06:002013-12-17T12:21:36.384-06:00Just to add my two cents, I also saw the NWS forec...Just to add my two cents, I also saw the NWS forecast last night for 100% chance of snow. However, at least here in Rosemount this morning there were no indications of any fresh snow. The cars, sidewalks, steps, roads, etc. showed no signs that snow or anything else had fallen. Schnee Meisternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-36028380532022530302013-12-17T12:01:13.787-06:002013-12-17T12:01:13.787-06:00What is also scary is that the 12z GFS AND 00z Eur...What is also scary is that the 12z GFS AND 00z Euro have the best 700mb dendrite growth zone dangerously close to MSP.NovakWeathernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-69613651379346303932013-12-17T10:42:15.808-06:002013-12-17T10:42:15.808-06:00I'm getting nervous about this weekend's s...I'm getting nervous about this weekend's storm system. 12z GFS continues the trend of shifting the track NW. Plus, jet structure looks fantastic for this storm, even over the Upper Midwest with phasing & a coupled environment. Gut feeling is that this is going to be a monster over the Midwest. I'm just not sure how far NW to pull the significant snow band. Right now, WI, IL & eastern IA look most favorable, but that could easily shift further north into MN with successive model runs.<br /><br />Anxiously awaiting for the 12z Euro to come out.NovakWeathernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-15336507275020334882013-12-17T10:05:15.152-06:002013-12-17T10:05:15.152-06:00Emphasis on the word "micro."
Honestly,...Emphasis on the word "micro."<br /><br />Honestly, I expect to see every single salt truck in the free world on our roads today, given that it's their one chance to clear the ruts. I'm not giving up hope, though I haven't seen any yet. There are still many roads in very bad shape. The annoyingly frequent small bursts of snow haven't helped matters.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-14741384635222677642013-12-17T09:57:56.480-06:002013-12-17T09:57:56.480-06:00Surprising that nobody forecast the micro-thaw ove...Surprising that nobody forecast the micro-thaw overnight.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-70499157070098812882013-12-17T09:43:40.008-06:002013-12-17T09:43:40.008-06:00If this, is, in fact true, then it must have been ...If this, is, in fact true, then it must have been a situation where the snow wasn't reaching the ground. I went back and checked the radar loop from overnight and there were some decent returns over the metro area (Eagan included). It looked like there should have been some snow falling, but the 1-2 inch total was probably a bit much. The snow blossomed nicely as it was crossing over into WI. We saw another nice little burst of snow that lasted just under an hour here overnight. Duanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10787345530045701289noreply@blogger.com