tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post2796539667135072482..comments2024-03-26T10:45:14.207-05:00Comments on The Minnesota Forecaster: The Curtain is Closing (on >50 that is)Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comBlogger73125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-21171452107741077782014-11-09T10:10:38.113-06:002014-11-09T10:10:38.113-06:00Yup, NWS keeps upping totals (and assuming ALL sno...Yup, NWS keeps upping totals (and assuming ALL snow), but the news media seems to be going more conservative, in the 4-8 inch range. Then there is Paul Douglas who has no shame in flat-out saying "WE DON'T KNOW." He has outlined a scenario that brings 4-8 and one that brings a crippling storm; said his gut is to go with the bigger solutions and that the current model mean is about 10 inches.ABnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-79863564633479528442014-11-09T10:05:54.565-06:002014-11-09T10:05:54.565-06:00So it seems like we have a media vs NWS battle hap...So it seems like we have a media vs NWS battle happening. NWS seems by far the most aggressive (although I have seen every stations forecast). The AFD from Chanhassen seems very confident.CWY2190https://www.blogger.com/profile/07489877587725781507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-18295411894657393762014-11-09T09:58:38.648-06:002014-11-09T09:58:38.648-06:00I agree way too much hype surrounding this storm, ...I agree way too much hype surrounding this storm, it will end up being your run of the mill 6" snowstorm for the metro area, if you can even call it a storm for the metro, rain/mix is moving further north and will cut into totals, yes most everyone will see snow but this wont be severe in the metro, points from St. Cloud to northern Wisconsin will see a STORM play out the metro will be an average deal, everyone throwing out stupid model numbers and then say WOW after seeing them is not for the core metro, we will survive and the day will go on just will take a little extra time to get there is all.Marknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-10895057860193022782014-11-09T09:23:06.772-06:002014-11-09T09:23:06.772-06:00The trend has been north and even watching the fut...The trend has been north and even watching the future casts of a few stations, they seem to be ovepredicting snowfall relative to the model. Some show a lot of mixing in the south metro with snow not really getting going until late Monday afternoon. But as I am not someone who sits and studies the models, I don't know if the models have settled in and Yuhas is going against them or if they are continuing to wobble.ABnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-23285358893026403212014-11-09T09:19:37.924-06:002014-11-09T09:19:37.924-06:00I'm not sold yet. Storm seems to be moving a ...I'm not sold yet. Storm seems to be moving a little further north and temps could be an issue initially over southern metro. Could be a bust as far as a huge storm for at least half of the metro. True is will be a disruptive first snowfall, but I'm not sold it will be a huge 8+" storm across metro.Not Paul Douglashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16778922218590382489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-17667851619631603622014-11-09T09:13:08.327-06:002014-11-09T09:13:08.327-06:00Now that we’re convinced of tomorrow’s significant...Now that we’re convinced of tomorrow’s significant snowfall, is this part of the effect of bombogenesis and do you think we’ll be seriously affected by the predicted deep freeze to follow? -MM ;-)<br /><br />http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/polar-plunge-arctic-air-could-impact-250-million-americans/<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-58180792807782005912014-11-09T08:54:00.459-06:002014-11-09T08:54:00.459-06:00So is the storm shifting more north.....Jonathan Y...So is the storm shifting more north.....Jonathan Yuhas at KSTP has the MSP airport in a 2-4" band and the rest of the 494/694 loop in a 4-6" band, he has the 10+ band north of Anoka county. But NWS has metro area in a 10-14", and Weather Channel has us in a 8-12" band.....so who do we believe?....time will tell.bigdaddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-22131772410767447922014-11-08T23:24:35.907-06:002014-11-08T23:24:35.907-06:00Right on @Sam, so true! I have never seen it eithe...Right on @Sam, so true! I have never seen it either and I have followed weather for over 30 years and living in many snowy cities.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-16286898476818636302014-11-08T22:50:09.868-06:002014-11-08T22:50:09.868-06:00Nah, NWS didn't wait to long to hoist a watch ...Nah, NWS didn't wait to long to hoist a watch did they, seriously tell me a time that anyone on here has seen a watch be hoisted 6 hours before a warning, I never have, they are trying really hard to make up for lost time, especially when they use wording like "roads can be impassable if you get stuck". They won't admit it nor will most of you here, but I can see what their doing and read between the lines. Be safe all.Samnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-13471755802746558452014-11-08T22:42:01.433-06:002014-11-08T22:42:01.433-06:00This is getting just too much. It seems like the ...This is getting just too much. It seems like the storm is massive enough, without MSP being on the border of a sharp cutoff of snow that many will see quite a pile of snow. Amazing since we just entered November and it was so warm this fall. Who would have thought! This is just too good to be true. It seems like the wobble will settle right over the metro. That's my kind of wobble!! Bring it!! Plymouth Weather Lovernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-88788363210068608992014-11-08T22:31:29.781-06:002014-11-08T22:31:29.781-06:00Yikes!!!! both the GFS and Nam have locked on to t...Yikes!!!! both the GFS and Nam have locked on to the JMA solution, we couild see 12-16 across the Northern metro. I this trend continues we could be in record territory.randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-50772350671949336792014-11-08T21:56:45.363-06:002014-11-08T21:56:45.363-06:00AB he highlights a model run that shows 4-8. Here ...AB he highlights a model run that shows 4-8. Here is his text:<br /><br />"And the rumors are true: it's going to snow tomorrow. The air and ground will be cold enough for that snow to stick. Traffic may be a mess by afternoon. A plowable snowfall is likely; my concern is will it be 5 inches, or closer to a foot? Right now I'm leaning toward the latter (greater) solution, with some 6-12" amounts in the metro, maybe more just to the north/west of MSP"randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-83060035144963745602014-11-08T21:37:18.815-06:002014-11-08T21:37:18.815-06:00Paul Douglas is showing a more northerly shift wit...Paul Douglas is showing a more northerly shift with lower numbers (4-8 over the metro). Still plenty of snow, but perhaps not as debilitating as what NWS is calling for. Where is this difference from?ABnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-66633820824998793622014-11-08T21:24:37.638-06:002014-11-08T21:24:37.638-06:00Winter Storm Warning is now out for the entire met...Winter Storm Warning is now out for the entire metro area. MPX pulled the trigger, rightfully so.randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-17365682340407420072014-11-08T21:09:04.392-06:002014-11-08T21:09:04.392-06:00The 09/0z run of the nam
http://i960.photobucket....The 09/0z run of the nam<br /><br />http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/instantweathermaps_zpsc00b9b12.gifrandyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-91985559927787535082014-11-08T20:09:08.228-06:002014-11-08T20:09:08.228-06:00Wow, I'm very humbled. I had no idea how clo...Wow, I'm very humbled. I had no idea how close that forecast was to what the NWS Twin Cities had put out.<br /><br />http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/NWSsnowfallforecast_zpsc3e4e2e1.png randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-53935250323994295602014-11-08T19:57:53.518-06:002014-11-08T19:57:53.518-06:00Love the specificity of your MSP prediction!Love the specificity of your MSP prediction!Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-20778970953415263682014-11-08T19:43:20.314-06:002014-11-08T19:43:20.314-06:00Ok it's time. In honor of bringing Floyd of R...Ok it's time. In honor of bringing Floyd of Rosedale back to MN in a very convincing way, it time to bring a snowfall forecast to MN.<br /><br />As most of you know the models have had a horrible time consolidating on a solution. Almost all of them have been taking the heaviest QPF north on one run than south on the other run. However there is one model that has been extremely consistent and that is the JMA which is run by the Japanese, normally I only use that model for seasonal forecasting but for this event I am using it. The JMA has consistently shown the highest QPF from the northern metro to St Cloud.<br /><br />So lets look at the Euro. The 11/08 0z run had the heaviest snows and QPF north of the metro, but the 12z run moved a bit to the south.<br /><br />The Nam was also north but with the 18z run on 11/08 it moved a bit south.<br /><br />The Models that had shown the heavy snow to the south have now shifted somewhat to the north with their 18z runs.<br /><br />So my thinking is that the models are now starting to converge on a JMA solution, and that includes the UKMET which is one of my favorite models.<br /><br />So for the southern metro I expect 5-7" and that would included the Elko to Lakeview area. The core of metro between the 494-694 corridor should see between 8-10" including MSP which should see about 9.5". Northern Hennepin and southern Anoka county should see between 10-13". The Jackpot should be near ST Cloud to Hinckley that could see 13-16".<br /><br />I reserve the right to change this forecast when the models do converge, not the location but the amounts. It's very difficult to find Skew T plots of these model's as compared to the GFS and Nam, so temp profiles thru the columns are still in question.randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-89878961009623289312014-11-08T19:19:33.409-06:002014-11-08T19:19:33.409-06:00I don't like how far north this has moved sinc...I don't like how far north this has moved since yesterday. Joel Fischerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16151003904789150403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-69924547846564468862014-11-08T16:54:20.181-06:002014-11-08T16:54:20.181-06:00Can you say washboard roads Tuesday onward if MNDO...Can you say washboard roads Tuesday onward if MNDOT doesn't get the roads all clear.bigdaddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-12766371907940270282014-11-08T14:52:02.557-06:002014-11-08T14:52:02.557-06:00Guys.....we can all calm down now and discuss when...Guys.....we can all calm down now and discuss when a watch should or should not be put out on a different day......because the NWS has put the entire metro under a watch for 8-12".....SEND IT!bigdaddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-68238668680215344952014-11-08T14:50:58.884-06:002014-11-08T14:50:58.884-06:00Watch is up for all but the extreme southern count...Watch is up for all but the extreme southern counties of the NWS Twin Cities region. Surrounding offices have not yet issued advisories.ABnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-6712106944465329922014-11-08T14:45:51.836-06:002014-11-08T14:45:51.836-06:00@AB, so are you okay with lets say for argument sa...@AB, so are you okay with lets say for argument sake at the next update for NWS their forecast reads for Monday cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow! after forecasting 5-11" earlier in the same day. Your point about coinfidence in a watch holds no water when their able to state large amounts of snowfall in a forecast. I agree they have waited to long to post a watch, I have read the discussions the past few days and they wanted to hoist a watch last night but I believe they are being swayed by other nearby offices.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-83672875996517271282014-11-08T14:44:30.012-06:002014-11-08T14:44:30.012-06:00They put totals out based on current projections, ...They put totals out based on current projections, but they have been very clear that their confidence is still LOW. If they were to put out the watch last night only for it to not materialize over the majority of the watch area, you same people would be criticizing them for their "bust."ABnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-57322842934203908042014-11-08T14:36:49.116-06:002014-11-08T14:36:49.116-06:00Not everyone is in tune with the weather, you woul...Not everyone is in tune with the weather, you would be surprised the amount of people that will wake up Monday morning and be like "what the hell is this".Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com