tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post2983392118541452757..comments2024-03-26T10:45:14.207-05:00Comments on The Minnesota Forecaster: Mayday! Mayday! Could There Be Accumulating Snow in May?Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comBlogger86125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-21140126223602259342013-05-10T23:15:59.055-05:002013-05-10T23:15:59.055-05:00Done!Done!Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-24552475830115618502013-05-10T22:46:52.785-05:002013-05-10T22:46:52.785-05:00Bill, I think it's time for a new thread conce...Bill, I think it's time for a new thread concerning the possibility of record high temps on Tues. You may want to start the thread with my comments from above.<br /> randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-6025931150201847042013-05-10T21:46:12.853-05:002013-05-10T21:46:12.853-05:00Concerning Tuesday's high temps.
Attn Hammer,...Concerning Tuesday's high temps.<br /><br />Attn Hammer, Duane and Novak:<br /><br />Looking at the dew point fields that both the ECMWF and GFS are portraying for Tues at or around 65°to 70°, I wonder if that can be right as relative humidity levels at 925 and 850 mb are less than 50%. Looking deeper the 850-925mb wind fields seem to originate from the Sonora region into west TX and along the lee side of the Rockies as apposed to coming up from the gulf.<br /><br />This could impact the high temps in a rather dramatic way for Tuesday. If the models are right and we see 65 dews I would expect surface temps to be at or around 90°. However I suspect the Dews will be around 58° and that could allow the surface temps to reach 95°+ which would put us in record territory as the high temp for May 14 is 95°.<br /><br />So to Tom,Duane and Hammer what are your thoughts?? Oh by the way Tuesday looks to be severely capped by the warm temps aloft. randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-65356753505407672072013-05-10T19:41:43.186-05:002013-05-10T19:41:43.186-05:00From a freeze(early Sunday morning) to 90's(Tu...From a freeze(early Sunday morning) to 90's(Tuesday).......only in Minnesota.....if you don't like the weather just wait 24 to 48 hours and usually there will be a change.<br /><br />So how warm/hot will Tuesday get?......NWS says its being conservative with their highs of mid/upper 80's at the moment.big daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-85030289751477068472013-05-07T09:24:33.669-05:002013-05-07T09:24:33.669-05:00After 5 days the 14+ inches of snow we received is...After 5 days the 14+ inches of snow we received is now a thing of the past except for a few snow piles here and there.DysonGuyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12351540636292459647noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-90542712333385908522013-05-06T13:00:36.438-05:002013-05-06T13:00:36.438-05:00Well after that last snow, I felt the need to leav...Well after that last snow, I felt the need to leave town for a few days to where snow was non existent. I will admit that was a pretty fun record to break and honestly I don't see that record being broken in any of our lifetimes. The models actually did a good job with the snow predictions and that is what shocked me the most. I really thought they were overdoing it because they weren't taking any melting into consideration. I really don't think any forecaster out there would have been comfortable with forecasting 12+ inches of snow on May 1st. Now that we have witnessed that it is possible, that could very easily change how they look at similar storms in future years. This one will be a good one for the archives. The strength of a May sun also showed up, given that the almost 10 inches of snow that we got is pretty much non existent only 3 days later. Looking ahead now, it doesn't appear any more snow is in the forecast. A wicked cold front blasts through Saturday morning that will cool things off for the weekend, before temps moderate again next week. Next week could be the return to better heat and even humidity for the central part of the country so we'll have to watch and see if the severe weather season gets underway as well. The long range is finally starting to look more spring and summer like.Duanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10787345530045701289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-34999459505960584472013-05-03T13:23:04.195-05:002013-05-03T13:23:04.195-05:00@P and others on this site, Sorry for venting off ...@P and others on this site, Sorry for venting off topic, it was "trollish" of me.<br />Cheers, MNPLOWCO<br />@P, I looked at your site suggestion and noaa states "Winter Storm- A snow accumulation of at least 6 inches in 12 hours, or at least 8 inches in 24 hours, in combination with one of the following: rain, freezing rain, sleet, wind, blowing snow or cold (wind chill). I guess my question was should this have been a watch in Henn. county or should it have still been a warning when nothing happened?<br />I'm trying to learn.<br />Cheers, MNPLOWCOAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-51079974698824495792013-05-03T12:15:58.001-05:002013-05-03T12:15:58.001-05:00@P and others on this site, Sorry for venting off ...@P and others on this site, Sorry for venting off topic, it was "trollish" of me.<br />Cheers, MNPLOWCOAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-88212518094287637902013-05-03T11:49:49.409-05:002013-05-03T11:49:49.409-05:00Drove around the southern part of Red Wing today. ...Drove around the southern part of Red Wing today. The tree damage is amazing. Branches down in most peoples yards and there are many larger (10+ diameter trees) that have split down the middle.<br /><br />By far the most damage I remember seeing from a snow storm.Cody Ynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-28455183530697624682013-05-03T11:38:42.776-05:002013-05-03T11:38:42.776-05:00@Anonymous, It is simple, it was a miss in the me...@Anonymous, It is simple, it was a miss in the metro. Period. That is all I am saying. As to paying for a Met., I always appreciated everyone on this site. Most of the talk here is way over my head (as is the snow). I only have 45 years in the business, as an successful owner, but what do I know. As for FREE, I have stated that this site needs a donation site and would gladly pay for the insight that this group brings.<br />And if you think NWS is FREE or that advertising and product buying are FREE to have Mets on staff at stations is Free....recheck your math. With great respect for whomever you are and for all of you putting forth an effort to inform,<br />Cheers from MNspeechmakerCO<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-49568827676389399102013-05-03T10:34:30.225-05:002013-05-03T10:34:30.225-05:00Not even a Short Term Forecast from the National W...Not even a Short Term Forecast from the National Weather Service this morning on this DEFINITELY more than expected snow event today. Already 3" more in Owatonna today. Did the NWS go into hibernation for the winter?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-19687946048061637342013-05-03T09:42:02.258-05:002013-05-03T09:42:02.258-05:00For the MSP core, the morning snow seems as much a...For the MSP core, the morning snow seems as much a force already than Wednesday's ever did.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-60166872545733521402013-05-03T09:33:16.103-05:002013-05-03T09:33:16.103-05:00Still moderate snow now in Golden Valley.........l...Still moderate snow now in Golden Valley.........lawn and trees already coated......will MSP get in on the record breaking fun a day late?..........good slug of moisture moving due north along I-35.big daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-69861536077358694552013-05-03T08:34:18.466-05:002013-05-03T08:34:18.466-05:00Moderate(borderline heavy snow) now falling in Ede...Moderate(borderline heavy snow) now falling in Eden Prairie............big daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-551145793551261372013-05-03T02:17:27.756-05:002013-05-03T02:17:27.756-05:00The area of heavy snow, not surprisingly, did not ...The area of heavy snow, not surprisingly, did not perfectly align with forecasts. It rarely does. The precision required just isn't their with our (humanity) current understanding of how the atmosphere works and ability to model it.<br /><br />Verification would be a good topic for this site to explore and give the anonymous trolls some tangible information to digest. Yes, meteorologist can be wrong - that is inherent when you are trying to predict the future of a non-linear system. That doesn't mean that great, and I do mean great, effort does not go into minimizing the error and improving forecasts. That is the main thrust of modern meteorology since its inception 150 years ago.Phttp://p.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-11505264006715725812013-05-03T02:11:14.686-05:002013-05-03T02:11:14.686-05:00No. A watch would precede a warning or advisory. H...No. A watch would precede a warning or advisory. Having a watch in effect within 12 hour of the expected even defeats the purpose. A watch should either be converted to a warning, advisory, or dropped. It is never carried into and through an event. You can read up here: http://www.weather.gov/directives<br /><br />The trolls on here are pretty annoying, guess they got that going for them.Phttp://p.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-49724528026388125182013-05-03T01:47:18.611-05:002013-05-03T01:47:18.611-05:00Hey MNPLOWCO...We can all appreciate that weather ...Hey MNPLOWCO...We can all appreciate that weather forecasting is not a perfect science. If it was, this board would not exist.<br /><br />I appreciate that you have a business to run. <br /><br />Respectfully, if your business is dependent on accurate weather forecasts then you should spend the money to hire a weather professional of your choice. If you can find one that's better, more accurate and more profitable for your business than NWS or media sources... than spend the cash.<br /><br />To kvetch about "tax dollars" rings hollow when you are essentially using a free weather service for your business (NWS) who's mission is "the protection of life and property."<br /><br />Most media sources did not forecast a "plowable" snow for the west metro.<br /><br />The fact is, weather forecasts are accurate and useful as much as 90% of the time within 24 hours of an event, and this saves U.S. businesses as much as 4 - billion dollars annually.<br /><br />If you have a better source for weather, then pony up and pay for a weather service that you believe will make your business more profitable.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-35471175506337903492013-05-02T21:39:51.456-05:002013-05-02T21:39:51.456-05:00I guess this blog should be renamed MSP Forecaster...I guess this blog should be renamed MSP Forecaster. Minnesota weather in general seems far too broad of an interest for those here.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-75979374911480732072013-05-02T19:23:27.344-05:002013-05-02T19:23:27.344-05:00I live in Red Wing. While you in the cities think ...I live in Red Wing. While you in the cities think this was a bust, this storm was underforecasted. <br /><br />This is not only historic for being in May, this storm would be historic ANY month of the year! Official reports say 10', but our radio station KWING confirms our storm total in the southeastern side of town is 17 inches. This is the least of it. <br /><br />Power has been out sense 2AM, and hundreds in our city are without it until tomorrow at 6PM, restaruants that are open are packed with people, the tree damage is UNREAL, it looks like a tornado ripped through the city. At one point today almost everybody except the north side of town was without power and like I said hundreds are still without for another 24 hours. Earlier this morning if you were to stand outside all you would hear is the cracking of trees and branches falling. There were literally uprooted trees throughout the town. Historic storm for sure! <br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-41543518342669980582013-05-02T10:06:23.184-05:002013-05-02T10:06:23.184-05:00Visit my twitter feed for a few - https://twitt...Visit my twitter feed for a few - https://twitter.com/aWeatherNerd/status/329973815734046720/photo/1 DysonGuyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12351540636292459647noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-72922057470808393002013-05-02T08:39:27.434-05:002013-05-02T08:39:27.434-05:00DysonGuy, send us folks here in the TC some pics!DysonGuy, send us folks here in the TC some pics!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-61760929015363033002013-05-02T08:36:57.729-05:002013-05-02T08:36:57.729-05:00Amazing looking outside right now in Rochester. J...Amazing looking outside right now in Rochester. Just plain amazing. DysonGuyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12351540636292459647noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-32155921046140193012013-05-02T08:27:11.940-05:002013-05-02T08:27:11.940-05:00Wow, the forecast for southeast Minnesota and west...Wow, the forecast for southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin is for heavy snow through this afternoon with additional accumulations of 6+ inches! A lot of towns have already picked up 10-15 inches! It looks like those "wild" snow figures the models were putting out a day or two ago were right on the money.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-2038128953851060412013-05-02T08:16:10.083-05:002013-05-02T08:16:10.083-05:00I do need a good therapist .
This is how I've ...I do need a good therapist .<br />This is how I've always seen it<br /><br />"The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma is tasked with identifying areas favorable for severe weather.<br /><br />If SPC forecasters think conditions are favorable for severe weather in the coming hours, they'll issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch or Tornado Watch.<br /><br />Once severe weather is occurring or imminent, it's up to the local National Weather Service to issue a "Severe Thunderstorm Warning" or "Tornado Warning" for a specific storm."<br /><br />Cheers<br /><br />MNCRAZYCOAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-13459369627366498002013-05-02T08:13:00.752-05:002013-05-02T08:13:00.752-05:00I agree that with so much uncertainty with the for...I agree that with so much uncertainty with the forecast a winter storm watch would have been better suited for the Twin Cities core metro. I am being concise because the official 13 county Twin Cities metro area now includes the WI counties of Pierce and St. Croix. A winter storm warning brings a strong degree of certainty, or at least it used to. That is why there is a distinction between a winter storm watch (caution, monitor the situation closely) and a winter storm warning (prepare because it's coming!), just as there is a distinction between a yellow light (caution) and a red light (stop!). It never seemed to be in doubt that areas such as Red Wing and points south and east would get hit hard. However, by listening to the NWS forecasts throughout the day and evening yesterday it appeared that they were always very confident of at least a few inches of snow falling over most of the metro, particularly from downtown Minneapolis/St. Paul and points south and east. I understand that weather forecasting isn't easy and that it's part science and part art. I get that. However, this goes down in the books as a big miss for all but the extreme southern and eastern fringes of the metro...plain and simple.Snow Misernoreply@blogger.com