tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post3041109542377584713..comments2024-03-26T10:45:14.207-05:00Comments on The Minnesota Forecaster: I Only Have Ice For YouBillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comBlogger64125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-43943697679291036282012-03-01T22:09:17.458-06:002012-03-01T22:09:17.458-06:00Answering my own question... Ken Barlow went with ...Answering my own question... Ken Barlow went with a high of 35 next Thursday, just as Dave Dahl forecast.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-62984420248915047562012-03-01T21:12:46.517-06:002012-03-01T21:12:46.517-06:00If anyone can stay up late enough to report on Ken...If anyone can stay up late enough to report on Ken Barlow's extended forecast (assuming he's working tonight; he may not be) tonight, it would be interesting to see. On Thursday, Dave Dahl is FAR cooler than all other forecasters. If KB is working, his Thursday prediction will tell us whether: 1) He's as big on the European model as Dave Dahl, or 2) How comfortable he is issuing a different forecast, one that he'd almost undoubtedly forecast if he were still at KARE. Hey, you gotta get your suspense somehow.....Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-41160356198690507842012-03-01T20:53:08.491-06:002012-03-01T20:53:08.491-06:00Yea, I know I need a new thread and some sort of g...Yea, I know I need a new thread and some sort of grading/assessment of the last storm (but hey, I have a day job). Meantime, check out this difference among the forecasters for a potential warm-up next week: http://yfrog.com/mg30536779pBillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-20242905314924320582012-03-01T19:48:07.008-06:002012-03-01T19:48:07.008-06:00I doubt it PLW from what I'm seeing, at the sa...I doubt it PLW from what I'm seeing, at the same time I am seeing cape values off the GFS at maybe 200, I'm seeing the Euro with nothing. Of course that all could change. I hate to discuss severe potential here for the most part. What I posted earlier about SPC outlooks is a reminder of severe threats, that is all. I choose to do it at this time because the severe threat looms large over the SE USA for tomorrow, and the outlook showed about all the risk that could be put out.randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-48092922074494225942012-03-01T19:24:52.582-06:002012-03-01T19:24:52.582-06:00@PWL hang on I was looking at that earlier, let me...@PWL hang on I was looking at that earlier, let me revisit it.randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-48063683553102190692012-03-01T19:22:52.272-06:002012-03-01T19:22:52.272-06:00look at the NW flow that the Euro shows, bringing ...look at the NW flow that the Euro shows, bringing -10°c<br />850 mb temps over our snow pack. That looks cold to me.<br /><br />http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_12z/f72.gifrandyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-22017371060936125922012-03-01T19:13:28.870-06:002012-03-01T19:13:28.870-06:00@ Big Daddy, I have no Idea what March will bring,...@ Big Daddy, I have no Idea what March will bring, right now the GFS is blow torch warm, through the 16 day period, with maybe a day or two near normal. The Euro shows at or below normal temps for the first 5 days or so. Than it brings a quick warm up for about a day and half around the 6th and the 7th. Than starting around March 8th, it drops a huge trough down that extends all the way to the Gulf. We may get some snow there depending on how quick the cold air drops in, if it holds off it may meet with a low pressure area coming up, if the cold comes first the precip with stay to our south and east. After that the Euro puts a big block up and could leave us in the cold sector for a day or two or longer...So snowfall for March around 5". It could be 3" to high or 5" to low.<br /><br />Yikes!! I just checked something...before I was talking about HIGH temps at or below average for the first week. I just looked at the predicted lows of the Euro. Wow it now shows temps below zero overnight with the possibility of double digit below zero!!!randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-26709932698536270522012-03-01T18:59:21.722-06:002012-03-01T18:59:21.722-06:00Any thoughts about March 8 and 9? The NWS discuss...Any thoughts about March 8 and 9? The NWS discussion page says that the severe weather center is "lighting up" a bit during this time???Plymouth Weather Lovernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-86486644428066275672012-03-01T18:53:51.210-06:002012-03-01T18:53:51.210-06:00One more thing. All of the negative-nellies out t...One more thing. All of the negative-nellies out there--where are you now? Now that you have seen that this storm did have a major impact on this area, you are amazingly quiet. Don't get me wrong--I dont' want that to change if you are going to continue to be negative. I have made it clear how I feel about that. However, own up to your end as well. Accept some of your criticism/forecasting as wrong and our respect level will go up. Something to consider.Plymouth Weather Lovernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-405670027928217562012-03-01T18:51:18.275-06:002012-03-01T18:51:18.275-06:00I was thinking about this whole storm thing from y...I was thinking about this whole storm thing from yesterday. I want to throw my two cents out there. Remember, this storm was seen as a "monster" about 7 days before it happened. Most media outlets were at least mentioning it as something to watch. All of that information came from the models, as far apart as they may have been at that time. Seven days out and models can bring a storm that isn't even close to a particular specific city and be within a few hundred miles or less is amazing. Strength and general location was astounding. As it got closer, it was still amazingly accurate. The rain/snow line is crazy to predict. You could even see times, during the storm, that the snow was like a donut wrapped around the cities. Rain in Plymouth.....snow in SE Metro before making another shift to the opposite. Big picture is that is amazing. I think the NWS handled it extremely well and I think you would agree if you lived in the west or north metro. When you see the snow and see the intensity, it rings home a little more. However, I think the NWS should have stuck to their guns and stayed with a Winter Strom Warning or at least should have upgraded back up to that once it got worse.<br /><br />One more thing....the NWS service said the storm would do almost what it did regarding its NE movement and then shift to a straight east movement for a while. This is what caused the snow to start earlier and further south than in later forecasts. Amazing that it did that when storms usually don't. The NWS even recognized that in their early morning weater discussion on Wednesday morning.<br /><br />Overall, I don't know how I would grade this thing, but when you look big picture, it was pretty amazing.Plymouth Weather Lovernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-90945011521932443772012-03-01T16:05:03.735-06:002012-03-01T16:05:03.735-06:00Anybody want to comment on the duster that is comi...Anybody want to comment on the duster that is coming in tonight? Thanks!groundtechmnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10688839399028056518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-47105357161731489482012-03-01T12:34:31.801-06:002012-03-01T12:34:31.801-06:00according to the GFS spring is about to spring ove...according to the GFS spring is about to spring over much of the US over the next two days. if areas can loose snowcover widespread 50s and even 60s will be possible!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-19372200152386763852012-03-01T11:25:27.220-06:002012-03-01T11:25:27.220-06:00As we transition from winter to Spring I thought t...As we transition from winter to Spring I thought this would be a good time to remind us, or introduce to some of the readers, the products that the Storm Prediction puts out. Have any of you wondered what it means when your favorite media meteorologist say "the Storm Prediction Center has put us in a Slight Risk Area? (or occasionally a Moderate Risk?)<br /><br />First of all they put out a 1-8 day severe weather threat. On Days 4-8 you will rarely see a area highlighted, if you do they have detected a region that they believe has a 30% chance or greater for a severe threat.<br /><br />During days 2 and 3 you may see a area that has See Text on it. That would generally mean garden variety thunderstorms. You can also look at the probabilistic forecast for that area and you would generally see a 2 or 5% chance of severe weather. But more importantly you could also see a area of Slight Risk or even a Moderate to High Risk. When looking at the probabilistic outlook for that region you may see a 10,15,30,45 or 60% chance of severe weather within the depicted area. Those are the percentages of seeing severe weather within 25 miles of any point within the risk area. (60% is the highest and is very rarely used.) You may also see a area that is hatched, that means that there is a GREATER than 10% chance of seeing significant severe, EF2 or stronger tornado, 2" diameter hail or larger, or winds in excess of 65kt's.<br /><br />Day one is the same except you can see the probabilistic chances for Tornado, Wind and Hail.<br /><br />To make sure that I didn't misrepresent any of those terms I would like to direct to the SPC's Definition Page. Please take the time to read it.<br /><br />http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html<br /><br />This is the outlook for Friday March 2nd, 2012. It doesn't get much worse than this. My thinking right now is that there may be one or more Tornado Watches issued by the SPC tomorrow carrying the high alert possible called a PDS Watch (Particular Dangerous Situation.) <br /><br />http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/day2otlk_0700.gif<br /><br />http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/day2probotlk_0700_any.gif<br /><br />If you know anyone in the risk are, you may want to alert them.<br /><br />Here is the SPC home page, just click on the convective outlook tab, then choose whatever day you wish to see.<br /><br />http://www.spc.noaa.gov/randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-82609647030392612172012-03-01T10:02:59.153-06:002012-03-01T10:02:59.153-06:00@AB it was me who commented about Duluth,I didn...@AB it was me who commented about Duluth,I didn't exactly laugh it off,I never said they weren't going to get snow,I just said the snow is having a hard time getting there,which in the end since it took so long for the snow arrive their forecast is abit of bust when their going forecast was 16-20 inches and they only received 9 inches,I know I said only,and I would love to have gotten 9 inches yesterday,but 9 is far less then 16-20. @Duane love to see you back and your insight is much appreciated,though your comments are less then thrilling since they are not conducive to more snow,but hey anything is possible,I've seen 90 degrees and snow 6 days apart here one April so the snow season is not done yet,cuz Gods knows I don't want that humidity anytime soon.big daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-90784080352811689442012-03-01T09:02:41.730-06:002012-03-01T09:02:41.730-06:00No doubt a difficult storm. I didnt monitor every ...No doubt a difficult storm. I didnt monitor every mets forecast and it seems everyone wants to grade how well the forecast was as long as it was close enough. And maybe I have to change my expectations as to how well a forecast was 48 hours out. I believe based on liquid amounts, most forecasts were excellent. But let's not forget, as of Sunday aftn, the NWS had all of the metro getting 10+". Based on that (and this is just my opinion) it was a busted forecast. From that point on, forecasts where changing every couple of hours. The lack of accumulating ice in the forecast, as well as a 2-4" forecast of snow on Wednesday that never materialized from the metro and points east it almost made this a double busted forecast. Anyway, people to the north and west are going to grade this an "A". For me, just 10 miles SE of MSP I wouldn't give the NWS a grade higher than a "D". Maybe my expectations are too high. I'm still going to use the NWS as my main weather source as well as this site. <br />And I'm the first to defend meteorology to my coworkers, family, etc. I am often explaining "it's too early to know" or "it only shifted 50 miles" and how difficult it is to get a forecast accurate for any particular location - especially winter weather. <br />Anyway -love all the input, especially the technical terms which adds to my knowledge base.MN WeatherFanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01344670267965934110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-12913733172276072452012-03-01T07:00:12.926-06:002012-03-01T07:00:12.926-06:00I think, ultimately, we have to look at the temper...I think, ultimately, we have to look at the temperature gradients we were dealing with. Had it been 2-3 degrees warmer on Tuesday afternoon/evening, NO metro schools, with the exception of possibly the north metro, would have had any delays, let alone closures. Had it been 2-3 degrees colder on Tuesday afternoon/evening, ALL metro schools, with the exception of maybe the far south metro, likely would have been closed. On a normal day, do any of us notice if the forecasted high is even 5 degrees off? Probably not, but this week it was the difference between a rain storm and 18 inches of snow. <br /><br />With what they had to deal with, I think our mets did a great job...their precipitation forecasts were all very close to the 1.5+ inches of liquid we got, regardless of what form it fell in. If they'd forecasted all snow and a temp of 28 or all rain and a temp of 40, I'd be more critical, but most forecasted highs between 33-36. The actual high was 33; it just didn't stay above freezing as long as they anticipated it would. I guess my only criticism would be the NWS, located in the heart of the ice storm, that didn't undo their downgrade when it became obvious by 7-8pm that we were dealing with a dangerous situation out here.ABnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-77387690113360374752012-03-01T03:18:08.387-06:002012-03-01T03:18:08.387-06:00A couple things I wanted to mention...first of all...A couple things I wanted to mention...first of all @big daddy I wasn't upset about you asking for my opinion, or at you at all. My frustration was pointed more towards the hecklers (who should be eating crow right now because I would say Novak's map was pretty damn close as far as travel may want to be changed) Hundreds of accidents and spin outs...yeah the roads were terrible. This particular system was next to impossible to attempt to forecast the snow amounts especially near the metro area since that is pretty much where the main mixing line set up (I think I mentioned that several posts ago, btw). Those who were full into the cold sector and got all snow the storm unfolded just as planned...and I think the fact that this storm could produce totals in the one to two foot range, and also spawn an EF-4 tornado in Illinois proves the incredible dynamics of this storm. I had been watching this time frame for weeks now for a big system to come through...and it ended up coming to pass. I'm happy this was an intense system and that it lived up to its "hype". Others may disagree, but that's my opinion. Now...for the longer term, it would appear as though we will transition back to an above average pattern come mid March. The MJO is forecast to head into phase 6 by mid March. The AO's ensembles are pretty scattered, but the majority keep it positive...as do the NAO's. The PNA which recently went negative and gave us our more lively pattern is forecast to head back to neutral and eventually positive which flips the troughing and ridging. As long as that ridge builds far enough into the central US (and I think it will), then I believe the last couple weeks of March will be above to well above normal. This is my uneducated opinion (emphasis on uneducated). If I am wrong...so be it, but as I said I enjoy hearing other people opinions on what they think the weather will do down the road and not just people poking fun at other for being wrong.Duanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10787345530045701289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-55105630461861505112012-03-01T02:06:39.561-06:002012-03-01T02:06:39.561-06:00@AB,weather.com,the ones that you say is the most ...@AB,weather.com,the ones that you say is the most accurate/reliable has snow showers everyday from the 7th-9th,with temps in the mid to upper 30's,something brewing for then???corresponds with DD's talk of active late next week,but of course DD always says that so dont know how much stock you can put into it.big daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-5066581879529493772012-03-01T01:48:27.970-06:002012-03-01T01:48:27.970-06:00@Randyinchamplin,ok now February is in the books,I...@Randyinchamplin,ok now February is in the books,I think your prediction for MSP was pretty close wasn't it,I think you said 3 to 4 inches and what did they get,was it 6in.Anyway thats pretty damn good,what do you see for March?any snowstorms on the horizon,most outlets are trending warmer for temps next week(40's and 50's)not really snow weather.big daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-24142084455637055852012-02-29T23:47:11.864-06:002012-02-29T23:47:11.864-06:00Quite a storm -- entertaining and adrenalin absorb...Quite a storm -- entertaining and adrenalin absorbing for sure!!!DDwxhttp://www.twitter.com/DDwxnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-27746322930690530322012-02-29T18:23:59.443-06:002012-02-29T18:23:59.443-06:00I find it hard to believe any storm on the 8th wou...I find it hard to believe any storm on the 8th would be snow considering forecasts flirting with 50 for the 6th/7th. <br /><br />In other news, there could be residual closings tomorrow due to power outages. I just drove through both Chaska and Waconia and portions of both cities were without power...note that neither was without power when I first drove through mid-afternoon.ABnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-63934189179789229762012-02-29T18:19:07.907-06:002012-02-29T18:19:07.907-06:00Stayed in Siren, WI last night and woke up buried....Stayed in Siren, WI last night and woke up buried. Close to 15", plows stuck in the parking lot until they brought out the bobcats. Crossing the St.Croix River heading towards Rock Creek the roads weren't plowed at all, was quite the adventure in driving.<br /><br />At home in East Bethel, maybe 8 inches of very wet, heavy snow to plow and build snowmen with. Perfect snow for a fun snow day. Hope we get a few more like this before winter officially calls it quits!JMigzhttp://13sradio.com/jmigz.htmlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-20013535422391150852012-02-29T17:09:02.705-06:002012-02-29T17:09:02.705-06:00Very sad about the tornadoes this storm is causing...Very sad about the tornadoes this storm is causing.<br /><br />EF4 tornado in Illinois in February...no wonder we got rain.CWY2190https://www.blogger.com/profile/07489877587725781507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-26284643350093115272012-02-29T16:27:04.823-06:002012-02-29T16:27:04.823-06:00To those of you who saw my last forecast posted at...To those of you who saw my last forecast posted at 6pm last night, I blew that one, should have stayed with my mid morning update. Heaviest snows ended up in west central Wisconsin, I thought that was coming to the metro, my bad. Looking at Friday's system out of the corner of my eye. But what could happen around the 8th has caught my eye as well. GFS and Euro both have it. GFS weaker and more progressive, Euro slower and stronger, but that difference between the models is expected. And yes we have some ponding of the water at the intersection's of the city streets here in Champlin. When all is said and done, what a interesting storm it was.randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-12425488663959606702012-02-29T15:02:08.999-06:002012-02-29T15:02:08.999-06:00@P Thanks for the information. Well taken. In the ...@P Thanks for the information. Well taken. In the final analysis, I think that most people (perhaps including the NWS) were not expecting the degree to which power was lost from fallen trees, etc., and whatever it took to communicate that could have been helpful for those needing to prepare for loss of electricity, etc. Quite clearly, this was about the most difficult forecast imaginable.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com