tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post3802608825175675893..comments2024-03-26T10:45:14.207-05:00Comments on The Minnesota Forecaster: Hurricane Irene: In Her Own WordsBillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comBlogger31125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-11715363737222591462011-09-11T19:24:41.673-05:002011-09-11T19:24:41.673-05:00Finally posted a fresh post in anticipation of the...Finally posted a fresh post in anticipation of the Jekyll & Hyde weather.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-88099565538488879072011-09-11T18:23:39.686-05:002011-09-11T18:23:39.686-05:00NWS forecast says 34 Wed. morning in Red Wing. It...NWS forecast says 34 Wed. morning in Red Wing. It hit 90 today. <br /><br />Crazy ass state.CWY2190https://www.blogger.com/profile/07489877587725781507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-70881926004372490242011-09-09T17:31:53.891-05:002011-09-09T17:31:53.891-05:00Hmmm....61° dew points today, the effect of the up...Hmmm....61° dew points today, the effect of the upper level low (ie Lee) that puts us on the western edge of the cyclonic flow. As that lift's out we should see more comfortable DP's in the mid 50's that are currently off to our west. I still think that the cool front will come in dry, but the confidence is somewhat lower this afternoon than it was this morning, I'm hoping for significant rain, but I don't think it will happen.randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-62876819591815126552011-09-09T11:59:43.226-05:002011-09-09T11:59:43.226-05:00I here you Bill, but if the euro is right that 103...I here you Bill, but if the euro is right that 1032 high will sit up right over us, meaning little if no wind, that could allow the lower lying spots, to drop down to the magic number. better chances from north metro and points further northrandyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-32203589223387573952011-09-09T11:51:22.602-05:002011-09-09T11:51:22.602-05:00Good info, Randy. Sounds like a "upcoming rol...Good info, Randy. Sounds like a "upcoming roller coaster" blog post may be in order. Will try to do that later in the day.<br /><br />Personally, and this is just a hunch and not looking at any models, etc., it just seems to hard these days to set a record nighttime low temp. Between the ever-increasing urban heat island, seemingly warming climate, etc., it just seems very hard to come by. But maybe Mother Nature just needs to flex a muscle or two.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-80623639597528553162011-09-09T11:26:35.275-05:002011-09-09T11:26:35.275-05:00Are you ready for a weather roller coaster? Temps ...Are you ready for a weather roller coaster? Temps this weekend should be in the mid 80's, with upper 80's expected by Monday.<br /><br />The other shoe drops in on Tues as a cold front works it way down from Canada that will usher in a 1032mb high that will set up over MN by Thursday morning, unfortunately the DP's out ahead of the cold front will be lucky to be around 50, so it will come in dry. <br /><br />Tuesday's high will be doing good if it hits 70°, Wednesday in the upper 50's, Thursday around 60 and 65 by Friday. As the high moves off to the east we should see temps rebound for next weekend back to more seasonal highs, maybe a degree or two above normal. <br /><br />My concern is Thurs and Friday mornings, record low temps may be set both mornings. Thursday record low is 36° last set in 2007, with Fridays low record of 38° set way back in 1873.<br />If the model solutions hold true we may have our first frost advisory issued for Thursday morning.<br /><br />According to the Minnesota Climatology Working Group the Median date for the first frost in Minneapolis is Oct 7th...http://climate.umn.edu/doc/twin_cities/frost_freeze.htm<br /><br />Unfortunately I don't any chance of meaningful rain in the next 10 daysrandyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-82670915279882049582011-09-08T15:55:17.021-05:002011-09-08T15:55:17.021-05:00The NWS says La Nina is back. It is looking like a...The NWS says La Nina is back. It is looking like another cold and snowy winter. It is a weaker La Nina, though, and the effects will be less major. You can still expect a snowstorn like one of the ones we had in december, though.bemakinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-54956561354746930362011-09-07T15:27:07.481-05:002011-09-07T15:27:07.481-05:00As for Katia, the only impacts might be soil erosi...As for Katia, the only impacts might be soil erosion, and it looks like it might cause trouble in Great Britan.bemakinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-49063393438710482832011-09-07T15:00:01.769-05:002011-09-07T15:00:01.769-05:00Now THAT's an honest graphic!Now THAT's an honest graphic!Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-89433707606971760482011-09-07T14:47:08.268-05:002011-09-07T14:47:08.268-05:00Sorry. TS Nate.
Really wish we had an edit butto...Sorry. TS Nate.<br /><br />Really wish we had an edit button lol.CWY2190https://www.blogger.com/profile/07489877587725781507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-86614264588140682462011-09-07T14:46:43.034-05:002011-09-07T14:46:43.034-05:0096L in the Gulf will be TS Lee at 4pm. Interestin...96L in the Gulf will be TS Lee at 4pm. Interesting forecast. It could go west into Mexico or NE towards the AL/MS/FL coast.<br /><br />This map from NWS Fort Worth explains it fairly well.<br /><br />http://i55.tinypic.com/2a0jjg0.gifCWY2190https://www.blogger.com/profile/07489877587725781507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-74418443196713785362011-09-06T18:56:39.492-05:002011-09-06T18:56:39.492-05:00I have been watching that... along with another lo...I have been watching that... along with another low in the gulf... I just really hope that another rally bad storm hits the U.S.<br /><br />As for the la Nina situation in the pacific... It looks more likley that la Nina will redevelop. In fact, the Nino 1&2, 3, and 3.4 all show la Nina conditions. Nino 4 is not far behind.<br /><br />It does not look good for those who dont want a cold and snowy winter.bemakinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-74248973380000363722011-09-05T08:04:53.326-05:002011-09-05T08:04:53.326-05:00Looks like Katia will be a fish storm.
However 95...Looks like Katia will be a fish storm.<br /><br />However 95L near Africa could be one to watch. Ridging builds in over the Atlantic and should keep it further south.CWY2190https://www.blogger.com/profile/07489877587725781507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-40172265327272634082011-09-04T18:10:35.120-05:002011-09-04T18:10:35.120-05:00Looks like the Cape Hatteras weather office is inc...Looks like the Cape Hatteras weather office is incorporating mention of at least some effects from Katina:<br /><br />Remnants of Lee appear to fizzle out or get absorbed by middle week as attention turns to Katia. Official track keeps it well east of area. <br />However error Cone brushes NC. Tropical storm force wind probabilities are increased over area. Have upped winds to account for higher probability of stronger winds.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-51917524288863628892011-09-03T10:26:49.128-05:002011-09-03T10:26:49.128-05:00Lee doesn't look very tropical.
In fact put i...Lee doesn't look very tropical.<br /><br />In fact put it over Minnesota and you'd think its a winter storm.CWY2190https://www.blogger.com/profile/07489877587725781507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-52899574582365523142011-09-02T21:43:54.615-05:002011-09-02T21:43:54.615-05:00Bill....I am afraid of that scenario, national att...Bill....I am afraid of that scenario, national attention goes to what's happening now, not looking forward...I will still stay with my 20% chance until the models come in tonight and in the morning, but I'm afraid I would need to ramp that up 30% or higher...I sure hope notrandyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-58224045024183613702011-09-02T20:35:31.014-05:002011-09-02T20:35:31.014-05:00Wouldn't it be kind of ironic if the storm tha...Wouldn't it be kind of ironic if the storm that hasn't gotten much attention turns out to be one worthy of all the hype...Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-80178780871891652222011-09-02T20:29:04.639-05:002011-09-02T20:29:04.639-05:00Here is the 12z run of the Euro, notice that the o...Here is the 12z run of the Euro, notice that the outer wind bands come real close to Cape Hatters (sp?)<br /><br />http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical500mbSLP192.gif<br /><br />notice at this time that it is at 936 mb.<br /><br />so now 24 hours later look how it intensifies this thing to 931mb http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical500mbSLP216.gif<br /><br />and to boot, it takes it about 30° to the northeast...I'm normally a Euro fan, best model in the world...but something looks fishy to me, how can something that strong change course that quick<br /><br />comments anyone? I'm I nuts? or could this really be a fish storm?randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-34954215242237636222011-09-02T13:22:36.225-05:002011-09-02T13:22:36.225-05:00Bill:
Yes I do, and what concerns me is a 500mb l...Bill:<br /><br />Yes I do, and what concerns me is a 500mb low pressure system that both the GFS and The Euro are showing over the Tennessee Valley, the GFS shows it completely cut off on the evening of the 8th, whereas the Euro shows it imbedded into a unusual deep 500mb trough, that will hold back the Atlantic high, the GFS eventually does so as well but not before the East cost feels the effect of the outer wind fields. This whole thing (at this time) appears to depend on the trough forming, time will tell.<br /><br />This morning run of the GFS for the evening of the 8th...http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTNA156.gif<br /><br />Last night's run of the Euro for the same time..<br />http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro500mbHGHTNA168.gif<br /><br />and the results<br />GFS http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTNA174.gif<br /><br />Euro http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro500mbHGHTNA192.gif<br /><br />at this time chances are low, but definitely not zero, i would say 20% at bestrandyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-19467208718725332012011-09-02T12:16:12.393-05:002011-09-02T12:16:12.393-05:00Well, I'm thinking its more likely then it was...Well, I'm thinking its more likely then it was yesterday and by more likely I mean not 0%. Lets see if they keep moving west.<br /><br />Really worried about that gulf system though. HPC precip map puts out 16" of rain over New Orleans over the next 5 days.CWY2190https://www.blogger.com/profile/07489877587725781507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-23428886728987410872011-09-02T11:23:59.931-05:002011-09-02T11:23:59.931-05:00Think Katia might actually be a threat to the US n...Think Katia might actually be a threat to the US now?Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-83635240491594293982011-09-02T11:17:37.702-05:002011-09-02T11:17:37.702-05:00Models are doing the opposite with Katia are they ...Models are doing the opposite with Katia are they did for Irene. Moving west with every run.<br /><br />Also looks like soon to be Lee will cause some major flooding problems. Not sure how well New Orleans can handle 15" of rain.CWY2190https://www.blogger.com/profile/07489877587725781507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-44878750946488111682011-08-31T12:59:20.877-05:002011-08-31T12:59:20.877-05:00All info previously given is now probably invalidAll info previously given is now probably invalidbemakinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-69254256256489151912011-08-31T09:03:58.053-05:002011-08-31T09:03:58.053-05:00Thanks, Tom!Thanks, Tom!Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-48711608954763569292011-08-31T07:46:52.457-05:002011-08-31T07:46:52.457-05:00I truly enjoy your writing Bill. Hopefully you ha...I truly enjoy your writing Bill. Hopefully you have sent this story up the line and can get it published elsewhere. Good timing.NovakWeathernoreply@blogger.com