tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post4756657694961638345..comments2024-03-26T10:45:14.207-05:00Comments on The Minnesota Forecaster: Forecasters Honing in on Thursday Event and Possible Storm for Next WeekBillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comBlogger70125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-77547629384138332252018-09-25T03:47:48.248-05:002018-09-25T03:47:48.248-05:00goodgoodAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05478799083887053263noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-33684091908879353072011-03-04T11:11:14.453-06:002011-03-04T11:11:14.453-06:00I suggest moving future comments to the most recen...I suggest moving future comments to the most recent blog post.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-66139360350174580902011-03-04T10:56:20.656-06:002011-03-04T10:56:20.656-06:00GFS pecip is now at about .65GFS pecip is now at about .65randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-2195757976398708782011-03-04T10:53:42.033-06:002011-03-04T10:53:42.033-06:00Novak
This could be a anomaly, we will have to se...Novak<br /><br />This could be a anomaly, we will have to see, i don't know if the upper level jet outruns the storm or not, but I do know upper level jet (200mb) has dropped to the south, and now the track has taken a more southern and easterly diprandyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-64772318797544410172011-03-04T10:39:57.284-06:002011-03-04T10:39:57.284-06:00Something smells with next week's storm. Do y...Something smells with next week's storm. Do you see how the 12z GFS blows this thing up in the Plains on Tue. then cuts off the moisture source a bit as it heads east into the Midwest on Wed.? It appears that the Jet dynamics outrun the storm by mid-week. I know we shouldn't put too much faith into one model run, but this is a bit alarming.<br /><br />Definite BIG snows (12"+) west of MN, but here? I would be cautious on this one at this juncture.@NovakWeather on Twitternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-89410190399240567232011-03-04T10:11:22.664-06:002011-03-04T10:11:22.664-06:00Weather on the front page of the Stat Tribune. Too...Weather on the front page of the Stat Tribune. Too soon for totals?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-32687817345157334352011-03-04T09:35:22.982-06:002011-03-04T09:35:22.982-06:00The previous comment above from 'Anonymous'...The previous comment above from 'Anonymous' is fantastic and so true. We all have access to the same data and it is interesting how we all interpret the data and come to our own conclusion.<br /><br />What I find interesting over the last month or so is how close the Polar Vortex is to the lower 48. Whenever the Polar Vortex is close to MN in March, that usually means trouble. Often, the Polar Vortex will oscillate from one area (Gulf of Alaska, Yukon) to another (James Bay, Siberia, etc.). However, it seems like northern Canada and James Bay has been the bullseye for the Vortex (cold core of air) much of this winter season. My bet is that Siberia has been much warmer than average over the last few months.@NovakWeathernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-27125889233699704912011-03-04T08:37:41.962-06:002011-03-04T08:37:41.962-06:00Do you guys sleep?! Don't get me wrong, I lov...Do you guys sleep?! Don't get me wrong, I love that you guys are up all night watching the models and giving me something weather-realted to read when I get into the office! <br /><br />I do want to thank you guys for level-setting all the various forecasts out there. You are shedding light on the fact that weather forecasting is difficult and nowhere near exact. It's like all the weather guys out there are playing in the same sandbox with the same raw data, but they're all building their own sandcastles. <br /><br />PhunnyfarmAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-51091562139817730502011-03-04T05:27:55.440-06:002011-03-04T05:27:55.440-06:00Randyinchamplin,
Thank you for your through post(v...Randyinchamplin,<br />Thank you for your through post(very informative)but the Euro has been back and forth and very wishy-washy with regards to the first system,while the GFS has been very consistent with its solutions,with almost every run the last 3 days,I can see the total QPF come down some but nothing less then 1 inch,with time the Euro is coming inline with the GFS,not the Gfs coming inline with the Euro,but either way you look at it it will be a dumping of at least a foot,I know the second storm is in the models dream state right now but it is close and like you said worth watching,what did you think of that 53" figure(did you read PD's blog)but with temperatures below average thru most of the month most of these systems will fall as snow.big daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-89957330249782169452011-03-04T03:16:00.404-06:002011-03-04T03:16:00.404-06:00Big Daddy
I hate to burst the snowmaggedon bubble ...Big Daddy<br />I hate to burst the snowmaggedon bubble but my confidence level on the 2nd storm is 3 out of a possible 10, the European puts the precipitation down across WI at this time, but it is something to watch carefullyrandyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-75754033628963574402011-03-04T03:05:07.948-06:002011-03-04T03:05:07.948-06:00Concerning next week
The European and the GFS are...Concerning next week<br /><br />The European and the GFS are now on almost the same track bringing the surface low over the Qaud Cites area of Iowa up over the WI IL border, but I noticed that the Euro only has .72" of precipitation in it as compared to 1.37 for the GFS. That peeked my curiosity to say the least so I went digging deeper and found 3 major differences.<br /><br />#1<br />As the surface low passes over the WI IL border the GFS has it at 1000mb which is slightly deeper than the European at 1004mb so the GFS has it stronger.<br />#2<br />Both models have a upper level low accompanying the surface low, this upper level feature on both model moves into sw SD. From there the European dissipates this feature while the GFS allows it to move into sw MN and extends it to the Brainerd Lakes area early Tues evening to Wednesday morning. It is no small coincidence that during that time is when the GFS puts down almost a inch of the 1.37" storm total. <br /><br />#3<br />Because of the presence of the upper level low (at 500mb heights) the Vorticity Max is in the +8-12 range on the GFS and only around +2 or so for the Euro. In addition at that same time frame the 700mb vertical velocity is in the 10 plus range on the GFS as compared to the 0-2 range on the Euro.<br /><br />Because of these differences I may have to lower my snowfall prediction from the 10-15" range to 8-12". We will see what tomorrow afternoon brings.<br /><br />One a side note, there are 3 other medium range models that create a near miss or a miss altogether with this system. However I don't give them much credence at all because they have performed very poorly this year at best, when this far out.randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-36202205810810315532011-03-04T02:11:57.917-06:002011-03-04T02:11:57.917-06:00TRULY UNBELIEVABLE! the numbers that PD just threw...TRULY UNBELIEVABLE! the numbers that PD just threw out on his blog,we are roughly 4-5 days out from this potential 'blizzard'( term was used by DD in his evening blog) and he is saying 12-20 inches(based off the current models I know),but man is this thing blowing up or what! he even mentions the storm after this one(that DD spoke of yesterday) and get this(using info from another website)he puts a graphic showing southern mn(including metro) with snow totals of 30-53 inches between now and March 18th.like I said truly unbeleivable March we have ahead of us if these storms pan out,that record wont even stand a chance,oh and that thaw that Mr. Paul H(mpr) was calling for starting weekend of 3/12 with a high of 56 a few days later,GONE!why to hype the warmth Paul,mother nature isnt giving up winter easy like it did last year,nothing higher then 35 degrees next 15 days,and if anybody is looking for another record to break(as if 98.6 inches of snow wasnt enough)we are 44 days away from breaking the concusetive days in a row with at least 1" of snowcover.WOW what a winter,I guess I'll be filling sandbags next week! Enjoy the snow and the falling records,something you can tell your grandkids.big daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-71155131580118084382011-03-03T22:55:51.823-06:002011-03-03T22:55:51.823-06:00I noticede PDs 15 day forecast is constantly chang...I noticede PDs 15 day forecast is constantly changing..and often contradicts his blog...why bother..Johnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-18385299742175736372011-03-03T22:29:22.945-06:002011-03-03T22:29:22.945-06:00John,updraft(Paul H) speaks of heavy rain cuz he i...John,updraft(Paul H) speaks of heavy rain cuz he is looking at one models long range forecast that shows a high of 56(10 days from now)Paul Douglas does that often as well looks 10-15 days out and says things like 'extended thaw coming?' but the very next day the temps cool off,we very well may have heavy precip then but could fall as snow then,temps arent going to warm up that drasctic(I could see 40's,but also colder then normal temps are in the cards for late March-early April(according to several long-long range forecasts.big daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-39150163272801343382011-03-03T21:51:45.523-06:002011-03-03T21:51:45.523-06:00Updraft is talking about the possibilty of heavy r...Updraft is talking about the possibilty of heavy rain week after next....yikes...Thanks for the insight Duane..Johnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-54665382822617197372011-03-03T20:11:26.569-06:002011-03-03T20:11:26.569-06:00John, he said that because it is still a ways away...John, he said that because it is still a ways away and plenty can happen between now and then. I don't think he sees anything that would make him think it would fall apart, it's just the usual uncertainty of long range forecasting. Most of the major models, however, are pointing at a pretty good size storm...so that is going in a snow lovers favor.Duanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10787345530045701289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-25314388547166214342011-03-03T19:43:35.312-06:002011-03-03T19:43:35.312-06:00DD says the tuesday wednesday storm has a chance t...DD says the tuesday wednesday storm has a chance to fall apart...any reason why he thin ks this?Johnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-80120049329008338332011-03-03T18:18:55.700-06:002011-03-03T18:18:55.700-06:00however I do like the nam moss for temps etchowever I do like the nam moss for temps etcrandyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-29317687030719826512011-03-03T18:16:18.783-06:002011-03-03T18:16:18.783-06:00Mr Novak...the nam has been sitting in the snow ba...Mr Novak...the nam has been sitting in the snow bank here for some time....I retrieve occasionally but more often times it ends up right back where I got it from lolrandyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-1368385616225694262011-03-03T16:12:10.213-06:002011-03-03T16:12:10.213-06:00Marc...your welcomeMarc...your welcomerandyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-83950010755519336742011-03-03T15:56:46.905-06:002011-03-03T15:56:46.905-06:00randyinchamplin...that's what I've been lo...randyinchamplin...that's what I've been looking for for a while now. Thanks much!Marcnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-46069886663108179732011-03-03T15:48:07.124-06:002011-03-03T15:48:07.124-06:00Marc you can also go here http://en.wikipedia.org/...Marc you can also go here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_airports_in_Minnesota...to get the other airport codes, airport codes are always 4 letters and all begin with the letter K. often times you will see them referd to by only the 3 letters such as MSPrandyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-56549823330997031662011-03-03T15:40:23.619-06:002011-03-03T15:40:23.619-06:00Marc....goggle gfs 16 day text forecast, it will b...Marc....goggle gfs 16 day text forecast, it will be your first choice...there will be a box next to where it says gfs 16 day plots, clear that box out and insert the air port code for the minneapolis airport, that code is kmsp<br /><br />enjoyrandyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-23293406335407892502011-03-03T15:06:32.172-06:002011-03-03T15:06:32.172-06:00Anyone know where PD gets his texture models? Paul...Anyone know where PD gets his texture models? Paul Huntner also has them on his blog sometimes. I was wondering if those were open to the public or not. They are the ones that he often points out "potential thaws" or "Potential Cold Snaps" with.Marcnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-87744505187986349672011-03-03T11:13:13.656-06:002011-03-03T11:13:13.656-06:00Seriously, I'm damn near ready to throw the NA...Seriously, I'm damn near ready to throw the NAM out the window. This flip-flopping is absurd!@NovakWeathernoreply@blogger.com