tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post518501274773919450..comments2024-03-26T10:45:14.207-05:00Comments on The Minnesota Forecaster: Boring Weather to Become More Active?Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comBlogger196125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-11666960489312325042020-03-06T17:14:04.829-06:002020-03-06T17:14:04.829-06:00I shot a FB message to Bill re: the blog having a ...I shot a FB message to Bill re: the blog having a new thread and the suggested title. WeatherGeekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14741160280149154934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-82821833555857644282020-03-06T12:03:09.610-06:002020-03-06T12:03:09.610-06:00It's time for some mildness. Last winter was ...It's time for some mildness. Last winter was awful. The flooding situation was a nightmare. It's still bad, but easing somewhat this year. With any luck, I may not have to worry about my basement.<br /><br />Bring stress-free weather! BRING IT!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-17707982413195072772020-03-06T10:07:58.923-06:002020-03-06T10:07:58.923-06:00Bill,Time for a new thread? Maybe call it "th...Bill,Time for a new thread? Maybe call it "the bet".Gregnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-51870415747576589472020-03-06T09:54:25.874-06:002020-03-06T09:54:25.874-06:00Pray tell, where? I want to hear their sweet whine...Pray tell, where? I want to hear their sweet whine.WeatherGeekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14741160280149154934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-75254723110407714162020-03-06T08:50:02.716-06:002020-03-06T08:50:02.716-06:00...mosquitos are out...mosquitos are outAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-18294950819106814042020-03-06T06:57:25.011-06:002020-03-06T06:57:25.011-06:00Yes, a wimpy winter it has been. What a difference...Yes, a wimpy winter it has been. What a difference a year makes. This time last year the Twin Cities officially had about 20 inches of snow on the ground; had not seen a temperature above freezing since the first of February, and had several days with highs in the single digits, including in March, over the past month. I was reading the EPO, as opposed to the AO, might actually be much more of a factor in determining whether MN has a real winter or a wimpy one. It appears a -EPO is possibly a very significant driver for a real winter. This winter we have had a +EPO. Schnee Meisternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-15942024243077898902020-03-06T04:50:40.635-06:002020-03-06T04:50:40.635-06:00As Paul Douglas says on his weather blog today: &...As Paul Douglas says on his weather blog today: "A positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation responsible for unusually mild weather is forecast to linger well into April. Our mild bias may hang on well into spring. ...<br /><br />No storms, no floods, no polar vortexes. What a winter.""WeatherGeekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14741160280149154934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-87635981976729072322020-03-05T10:36:05.759-06:002020-03-05T10:36:05.759-06:00This seems a rude response. PWL is not a hype make...This seems a rude response. PWL is not a hype maker. He is just a soul who loves winter and loves snow. Why do you have to be so rude and make assumptions about his life and/or 'tell him what to do.' ????????WeatherGeekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14741160280149154934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-50236080680749336422020-03-05T09:05:59.693-06:002020-03-05T09:05:59.693-06:00I agree with you (btw I hold a Commercial Pilot Li...I agree with you (btw I hold a Commercial Pilot License so I am very aware of FAA requrements).<br />I was not questioning why you should have a reporting station at the airport, of course you need one to issue METARs etc.<br />What I have been puzzled about is why the NWS does not consider adding other reporting stations that already exist and are automated, and average the results to give a more accurate picture of the actual weather in the TC metro for official record keeping.RigiKentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-66924409487810216482020-03-05T08:01:50.802-06:002020-03-05T08:01:50.802-06:00Lots of articles on the topic of why weather stati...Lots of articles on the topic of why weather stations are at airports. Google it and you'll find your answers. Part of it is FAA and airplane safety. It's also partly because large flat areas are good for weather sensors.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-92132959157386711932020-03-05T07:50:33.349-06:002020-03-05T07:50:33.349-06:00At last a good post bringing up good points instea...At last a good post bringing up good points instead of the many ridiculous 'oh it will snow" "oh it does not snow" hysteria, as though Mother Nature really cares about people's 'dancing' or what not.<br /><br />The official reporting station for the Twin Cities were as follows:<br />Downtown St Paul from 1884 to 1891.<br />Downtown Minneapolis from 1891 to 1938.<br />MSP airport from 1938 to 2000.<br />Chanhassen NWS from 2000 to 2004.<br />and back to airport since 2004.<br /><br /><br />It is beyond doubt that having the official reporting station at the airport has downplayed official temperatures (and to some extent snowfall averages based on my personal analysis of the data) and I cannot find other reasons than the heat island factor. If variablities were simply due to the randomness of weather it would show in the data, and it does not, so it clearly a systematic cause (again most likely the urban heat island effect).<br /><br />I have been an advocate for some years to use the already existing grid of automated reporting stations around the metro area (NW, N, NE, W, the Downtowns, E, SW, S, and SE and simply average the findings.<br />I am sure the NWS must have good reasons not to do it but it clearly is misleading.<br />RigilKentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-3477857564693976322020-03-05T07:33:47.303-06:002020-03-05T07:33:47.303-06:00OK I found it - moved to the airport in 1938. Wea...OK I found it - moved to the airport in 1938. Weather.gov's site is not working right now (what a surprise), so here's a google cache of it:<br /><br />https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:332p-01LynwJ:https://www.weather.gov/media/ilx/History/minnesota_wb.pdf+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=usAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-57934112279224975652020-03-05T07:31:30.376-06:002020-03-05T07:31:30.376-06:00I looked into that once. The station used to be d...I looked into that once. The station used to be downtown, then shifted to the airport I think in the 1940s. I'll see if I can find that info.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-12180624584683591232020-03-05T07:31:21.708-06:002020-03-05T07:31:21.708-06:00Just like no one can know for sure if there will b...Just like no one can know for sure if there will be a snowstorm within the meteorological snow season, no one can know for sure that there won’t be. But I am putting my money on weather patterns that are wildly unpredictable in March and into April. And Novak agrees with me based on recent comments on Facebook. I think we will see the other shoe drop in the next 10 days to two weeks. I am not predicting snow today or through this weekend! As a result, I’m not missing any ingredients. I know it can’t snow when it’s this warm. I am referring to the future and I am banking on statistics as a pertains to the snow season we are still in and how weather typically works in Minnesota in March. Time will tell and this will be fun to watch.<br /><br />Also, you mean there isn’t coronavirus lurking in my basement? That’s awesome to know because now I can go down there. <br /><br />Snowstorm....Bring it!Plymouth Weather Loverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05646038566118661073noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-44027220162174535072020-03-05T07:30:51.970-06:002020-03-05T07:30:51.970-06:00This is the link if anyone wants to review the cur...This is the link if anyone wants to review the current and historical weather data for the Airport and Chanhassen NWS. https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/twin_cities/index.htmlSchnee Meisternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-80931572513797328542020-03-05T07:27:32.093-06:002020-03-05T07:27:32.093-06:00I reviewed the monthly temperature averages for th...I reviewed the monthly temperature averages for this meteorological winter (December-February) at both the MSP Airport (official reporting station) and at the Chanhassen NWS(formerly the official reporting station). The temperatures at the airport appear to always be warmer, sometimes significantly warmer, than at Chanhassen. I am surmising this is due to the heat island effect. Here are the December - February average monthly temperatures at the Airport, followed in parenthesis by the departure from average: 23.2 (+3.5), 20.6 (+5), 21.1 (+.3). Chanhassen NWS: 20.4 (+2.3), 17.9 (+3.6), 17.5 (-1.6). The coldest temperature reported each month was at least three degrees colder at Chanhassen than at the Airport. The difference in the two locations even resulted in February 2020 officially being reported as having above average temperatures (+.3), while if Chanhassen was still the official reporting station February 2020 would have gone down in the books as being more than 1.5 degrees BELOW average. I have not conducted an exhaustive review into this, but I cannot help to wonder how changing the reporting station location has affected the official average monthly temperature reports for the Twin Cities over the years. Does anyone know when the Airport became the official reporting station? I just find all of this rather fascinating...and potentially misleading.Schnee Meisternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-48593094337438866842020-03-05T07:08:01.073-06:002020-03-05T07:08:01.073-06:00Seriously guys, is there really someone out there ...Seriously guys, is there really someone out there that seriously believes it is going to snow 6+ inch this season in the MSP metro?<br />Aside what you'd love to happen, but looking at reality? Seriously anyone?<br />I would probably have won 'the bet' with PWL even if the threshold was 3 inches instead of 6.<br />Come on...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-16169540706848219512020-03-05T06:10:18.473-06:002020-03-05T06:10:18.473-06:00Well weather boy, you might want to look at the te...Well weather boy, you might want to look at the temps because you are missing some ingredients to your dinner soup. Maybe get back to MSNBC and worry about COVID19 in your basement burrow. Hype maker! Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-76151984771339604112020-03-05T04:51:45.335-06:002020-03-05T04:51:45.335-06:00I know you love snow, as do I. When I check my lit...I know you love snow, as do I. When I check my little 'timeanddate' site that I wrote about on a different blog, sometimes I see a future prediction of 8+ inches and get all excited. Then after a day or two it has disappeared from the next computer run. I don't know.... it just doesn't feel like any big snow events are on the horizon. We have had years where there is 'early spring' and this feels like one of them.... keep dancing, PWL, but don't hold your breath at the same time. We need your continued presence on the blog, snowstorms or not. "Bring it," indeed.WeatherGeekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14741160280149154934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-88407393555521875252020-03-04T20:35:06.900-06:002020-03-04T20:35:06.900-06:00Models looking more interesting in the long term. ...Models looking more interesting in the long term. The pattern change coming on late Sunday into next week will lead to the big storm I have been betting on. It is early March people. <br /><br />Bring it!!Plymouth Weather Loverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05646038566118661073noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-37960909965765202902020-03-03T08:38:28.926-06:002020-03-03T08:38:28.926-06:00I would.
Snow is done for the season, whether snow...I would.<br />Snow is done for the season, whether snow-lovers like it or not or whether snow-haters love it or not.<br />Done.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-60671301065464010602020-03-02T10:51:16.000-06:002020-03-02T10:51:16.000-06:00I wouldn’t sleep on the Monday/Tuesday timeframe(9...I wouldn’t sleep on the Monday/Tuesday timeframe(9th/10th), global models except for the GFS are showing heavy wet snow(around 6”) near Minneapolis...currently in central Minnesota. It’s a week out so it’s something to watch(and dance too)!Samnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-22724305961952399172020-03-01T14:59:40.218-06:002020-03-01T14:59:40.218-06:00Melting snow is one of my favorite things to watch...Melting snow is one of my favorite things to watch/experience in weather. What a day!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-23897330531946041582020-03-01T13:53:44.463-06:002020-03-01T13:53:44.463-06:00We officially hit 50 for the first time since 10/2...We officially hit 50 for the first time since 10/26/2019.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-79410763289979753702020-03-01T07:41:47.352-06:002020-03-01T07:41:47.352-06:00I think what you are missing PWL is that the patte...I think what you are missing PWL is that the pattern is completely different.<br />And one of the few consistent things about weather science is that patterns, once entrenched, are extremely difficult to dislodge.<br />This winter the predominant pattern by far has been split flow and ridging which does not bring big snowstorms to the region.<br />So true, you can have extremely snowy March and April like we've seen to some extent last year, and especially the year before, but you also can have snow season ending on Feb 5th and 70 degrees by St Patrick's Day as it happened 5-6 years ago.<br />This year's pattern is much more similar to the one that brought us 70 degrees by mid-march.<br />So, I actually agree with Tim: forget the 6+ inch: I am starting do doubt that we even get any snowfall at all.David L.noreply@blogger.com