tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post5284275174956211699..comments2024-03-26T10:45:14.207-05:00Comments on The Minnesota Forecaster: Class is in SessionBillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-6082555576972865102010-12-20T17:49:24.560-06:002010-12-20T17:49:24.560-06:00Looks like the 12z NAM run was right with the most...Looks like the 12z NAM run was right with the most snow being over SC Minnesota. Most sources had the most snow north of the cities.<br /><br />http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2010/12/20/12/NAM_221_2010122012_F24_PCPIN_24_HR.png<br /><br />4.4" in St. Paul<br />5.2 in Chanhassen.CWY2190https://www.blogger.com/profile/07489877587725781507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-18841293636860362372010-12-20T17:16:28.356-06:002010-12-20T17:16:28.356-06:00Agreed. I bet the airport doesn't go over 5 in...Agreed. I bet the airport doesn't go over 5 inches.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-37292280320277958112010-12-20T17:12:15.556-06:002010-12-20T17:12:15.556-06:00NWS MPX was probably right with their discussion t...NWS MPX was probably right with their discussion this morning. They suspected that it might not reach warning criteria.<br /><br />MODELS ALL<br />CONSISTENT WITH WIDE SWATH OF AROUND 0.5 INCH QPF THROUGH<br />TONIGHT...AND WITH SNOW RATIOS RANGING FROM 10:1 TO 14:1...THIS<br />SUPPORTED SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA.<br />WITH 200 MB WAA RANGING FROM 10 TO 16 DEG C/12 HR...THE COOK METHOD<br />WOULD SUPPORT SNOW TOTALS SUCH AS THIS. LOOKING AT THE GARCIA<br />METHOD...THE SPEC HUMIDITY ON THE ISENTROPIC SFC OF CHOICE /295 K/<br />IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 3 G/KG...WHICH AGAIN SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF 5<br />TO 7 INCHES ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THIS WOULD MAKE CURRENT SNOWFALL<br />PROJECTIONS A BORDERLINE WARNING AT BEST...WITH LOCATIONS EAST OF A<br />LINE FROM BELLE PLAINE TO MILLE LACS LAKE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL<br />SHORT OF 6 INCHES. TOSSED AROUND THE IDEA OF TRIMMING SOME OF THESE<br />COUNTIES OUT OF THE WARNING...BUT DID NOT LIKE THE IDEA OF REMOVING<br />COUNTIES BEFORE THE FLAKES EVEN BEGIN TO FLY. PLUS...FROM THE IMPACT<br />PERSPECTIVE...THIS ONE SHOULD BE RATHER HIGH...AS ALTHOUGH WE ARE<br />ONLY EXPECTING 5 TO 7 INCHES...THAT SHOULD ALL FALL IN A 4 TO 6 HOUR<br />WINDOW. WITH RATES OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR...CWY2190https://www.blogger.com/profile/07489877587725781507noreply@blogger.com