tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post5344355953021739420..comments2024-03-26T10:45:14.207-05:00Comments on The Minnesota Forecaster: We're Not Boston, But Do We Have a Storm?Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comBlogger62125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-75940294637633358622013-02-09T22:34:06.363-06:002013-02-09T22:34:06.363-06:00New thread issued above.New thread issued above.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-47786970293822463262013-02-09T21:00:27.918-06:002013-02-09T21:00:27.918-06:00I haven't looked to see what the surface obser...I haven't looked to see what the surface observations are at this time vs what the models were showing, and that may be a critical error on my part. But based on the 09/12z Euro, the higher 15k resolution of the FIM model suite as of 09/12z and the 09/18z GEM REG model (which by the way was given major upgrade just before the winter season), I am sticking with my 6" at MSP, and in NW Hennepin county more like 8-10" The caveat that I have seen, is that the GEMREG model keeps most of the winter mix south of the metro. AS a matter of fact it stalls this system for about 6 hrs, as the center of the low gets between the metro and Eau Claire. IMO the gem regular was a big winner in the last storm that impacted the ARX county warned area around Madison, and was spot on showing no snow in NW IL, until late. If the 18z run of the GEM is correct we could see a surprise. So my forecast of 6" at MSP and 8 to 10 in NW Hennipen county is above average but not high. randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-67709176721645239812013-02-09T18:00:31.302-06:002013-02-09T18:00:31.302-06:00I am pulling for the Euro model to verify and have...I am pulling for the Euro model to verify and have our totals go up up up! Can somebody post and decipher the next run? <br />It's pretty quiet here considering that we finally have something to look at.ruthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07525132060449687950noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-62799786846059618202013-02-09T16:58:01.691-06:002013-02-09T16:58:01.691-06:00Thank you for info.....keep up the good work,look ...Thank you for info.....keep up the good work,look forward to reading more of your posts.<br />Earlier in the week I told the folks here to relax and wait till Friday for a shift in the models to occur,so that it has a look of heavy snows to our north and west and then the sow shift south begins.....any chance the shift continues and metro gets heavier snows then what is forecasted now.big daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-79551007265583776452013-02-09T15:57:32.287-06:002013-02-09T15:57:32.287-06:005-6 inches is great. I know it's disappointing...5-6 inches is great. I know it's disappointing to some, but what a great February storm this will be!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-53918713698589933752013-02-09T14:21:50.487-06:002013-02-09T14:21:50.487-06:00All forecasts/models have aligned pretty well toda...All forecasts/models have aligned pretty well today. My forecast is up on my webpage. I expect 5-6" at MSP, with slightly less for the SE metro, but more for the NW metro. Although we won't be in the bulls-eye for the heaviest snow, 6" would double the amount we have on the ground now and is definitely better than nothing. <br /><br />@big daddy I am a met who has a degree in Geography/Atmospheric Science. I work for a power company and forecast for wind farms around the country. Randy Hillhttp://www.chasetheplains.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-28019538229262707582013-02-09T13:09:34.160-06:002013-02-09T13:09:34.160-06:00MPR actually put out 3" to 8" Friday eve...MPR actually put out 3" to 8" Friday evening.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-72952486065277786102013-02-09T13:04:09.601-06:002013-02-09T13:04:09.601-06:00Metro is in a warning as of 1257pm, for 4-8 inches...Metro is in a warning as of 1257pm, for 4-8 inches of snow.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-75341151052177327892013-02-09T12:40:50.935-06:002013-02-09T12:40:50.935-06:00NWS has extended Winter Storm Warnings northward b...NWS has extended Winter Storm Warnings northward but not southward. I fully expect for at least most of the metro to be placed in a Winter Weather Advisory for mix tonight. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-10867273035404900252013-02-09T12:38:41.125-06:002013-02-09T12:38:41.125-06:00If it's not going to snow, then please dry slo...If it's not going to snow, then please dry slot us, Mr. Storm. I know it sounds selfish. The metro could use the moisture, but I hate RAIN during the winter so much that I would rather we get the dry slot instead. Frustrated TC Snow Lover. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-49740192155861138422013-02-09T10:47:24.496-06:002013-02-09T10:47:24.496-06:00@Randy Hill,I sure hope what your suggesting will ...@Randy Hill,I sure hope what your suggesting will happen,but I have to ask are you a met,or just a weather enthusiat,did you study meterology in college..........you seem knowledgable in your posts like you should be working at the NWS,you make it sound so simple maybe you should help out the NWS.big daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-92018312610897321502013-02-09T10:23:24.646-06:002013-02-09T10:23:24.646-06:00http://www.crh.noaa.gov/arx/http://www.crh.noaa.gov/arx/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-72285083148861141572013-02-09T10:21:41.864-06:002013-02-09T10:21:41.864-06:00Good stuff, Big Daddy!Good stuff, Big Daddy!Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-48583552166262351832013-02-09T10:11:53.279-06:002013-02-09T10:11:53.279-06:00So, basically they are calling for 1-12 inches. W...So, basically they are calling for 1-12 inches. Well that sure narrows it down. We're less than 24 hours from the event and there remains this amount of confusion. Personally, I think the GFS is going to be right and the real show will occur way out in western MN and the eastern Dakotas. I believe that is what the GFS has been predicting all week, isn't it? Go home folks, there's nothing to see here. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-89109516443575384502013-02-09T09:32:27.625-06:002013-02-09T09:32:27.625-06:00I highly doubt the dumb names are going anywhere. ...I highly doubt the dumb names are going anywhere. TWC has succeeded in at least getting people to use the #nemo hashtag.Disco80https://www.blogger.com/profile/15712370163841412634noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-22896719836159759852013-02-09T09:26:47.220-06:002013-02-09T09:26:47.220-06:00Yikes! It's not looking real promising for us ...Yikes! It's not looking real promising for us folks in the southern metro. I need to start dancing....pronto! PWL, quick, teach me some good moves!! Everybody join in and dance for the entire metro. There is nothing like being on the razor's edge...uugghhSnow Misernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-66659589290355914962013-02-09T08:59:38.427-06:002013-02-09T08:59:38.427-06:00My thinking really hasn't changed a whole lot ...My thinking really hasn't changed a whole lot from Thursday night. The Euro, other than some minor shifts, really hasn't moved a whole lot. Now as the 12z NAM comes out you'll finally see that it has aligned with the Euro from this morning. The surface low should track somewhere close from Norfolk, NE to Algona, IA to Winona, MN, which would still put most of the Twin Cities in line with at least 6" of snow, and more possible in the northern suburbs. <br /><br />It looks that the majority of our snow in the metro will come from 2-3 very heavy snow bands that will rotate through between 6am - 3pm tomorrow. These will have the potential to be convective, and drop snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour. The only concern I have with precipitation mode will be with the first band of heavy precipitation that moves in tomorrow morning. This could be rain for the southern half of the metro, and would cut back on total snowfall amounts there. Colder air works in after that changing all precipitation over to snow. Overall, the heaviest snows will still fall across eastern SD and far western MN. I still think a foot or more will be possible here. I will have my updated forecast up on my site in a few hours. Randy Hillhttp://www.chasetheplains.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-76748477887007104642013-02-09T08:55:49.556-06:002013-02-09T08:55:49.556-06:00Good summary, bigdaddy!! I am doing my "foot...Good summary, bigdaddy!! I am doing my "foot dance." I want a foot right here in Plymouth and everywhere possible around here. Bring it!!! Foot! Plymouth Weather Lovernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-46738339880005285622013-02-09T07:51:15.981-06:002013-02-09T07:51:15.981-06:00@Bill,this is what I was able to pull from the var...@Bill,this is what I was able to pull from the various outlets on our winter storm:<br />weather.com(current) 1-3"<br />accuweather(current) 3-6"<br />wunderground(current) 4"<br />strib(11pm Friday) 1-3"<br />NWS(AM UPDATE) 3-6"se 6-9"nw (graphic from website)<br />KSTP(Friday PM blog Johnathan Yuhas) 1-3 3-6 1-3 Total:5-12"<br />WCCO(10PM News Friday) 6-8"<br />Kare11(10PM News) 1-3"<br />MPR(6AM Craig Edwards)*an whole update on the storm(which is amazing since its the weekend)and not one mention of snow totals,they did put up the NWS graphic,but that is just plain lazy,at least give a prediction like everyone else,were 18hrs from onset of precip and they can't give a prediction.<br />This storm feels like no one really has a grasp of whats going to happen,just by looking at the wide variations above,to me any thing is still possible in the metro,I feel this is going to be one of those storms where when you look out the window one kind of precip is falling and then a half hour later another type will be falling,I'm rooting for snow and some heavy dynamic cooling of the atmosphere.<br />Hope the info helps!<br />Btw....keep dancing PWL!<br />big daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-33178316964783466062013-02-09T07:32:13.049-06:002013-02-09T07:32:13.049-06:00As of 7:23 this morning, HPC 1-3 day QPF has most ...As of 7:23 this morning, HPC 1-3 day QPF has most of MN at .75 or more. Guys (and gals)...the moisture is there for good snows. Looks like, as been the case ALL season, will be the mid-level temps, dynamic cooling, etc.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-90435106613603988302013-02-09T07:31:11.930-06:002013-02-09T07:31:11.930-06:00ARX is the La Crosse NWS office abbreviation. ARX is the La Crosse NWS office abbreviation. CWY2190https://www.blogger.com/profile/07489877587725781507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-8502469735642332862013-02-09T07:29:03.284-06:002013-02-09T07:29:03.284-06:00Who is ARX?Who is ARX?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-45532921244007995252013-02-09T06:27:59.355-06:002013-02-09T06:27:59.355-06:00Looks like we're hosed for the metro. Even AR...Looks like we're hosed for the metro. Even ARX, who is usually quite accurate, has changed its graphics from showing the metro in the potentially heavy snow zone to instead a mix and maybe 1-2 inches of snow from this system. They have the northwest metro in a band of 4-7 inches and of course western MN in the bull's eye, just like the models have been saying for days. Let's face it boys, this isn't going to be our storm. I just hope that our current snow cover doesn't get washed away. Sadly, I don't see any real remaining hope of a December miracle replay. We will have to sit on the sidelines and watch New England and western MN's blizzards. So close, but yet so far away. Bummer!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-72570164833087291562013-02-09T01:20:54.075-06:002013-02-09T01:20:54.075-06:00yes, but channel 4 and 5 are a little bit more bul...yes, but channel 4 and 5 are a little bit more bullish on this one. Don't pay attention to channel 4's weather graphic, listen as to what she has to say. Jonathan over at channel is quite bullish with this randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-53814162669973348372013-02-09T00:56:17.986-06:002013-02-09T00:56:17.986-06:00we need to get you a cell phone with internet acce...we need to get you a cell phone with internet access,how can we live without randyinchamplin's prospective on our storm for a whole day! ;)big daddynoreply@blogger.com