tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post5818313396160300650..comments2024-03-18T20:11:18.451-05:00Comments on The Minnesota Forecaster: As Minnesota Gets Waterlogged, California's "Rim Fire" RememberedBillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comBlogger43125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-7177827435803826522014-06-26T00:29:24.663-05:002014-06-26T00:29:24.663-05:00Thanks!Thanks!Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-84836074809380538692014-06-26T00:28:10.789-05:002014-06-26T00:28:10.789-05:00New thread set up for potential significant weathe...New thread set up for potential significant weather this weekend.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-36463718221769002072014-06-25T22:45:39.930-05:002014-06-25T22:45:39.930-05:00Good stuff Randy. I agree with all of your commen...Good stuff Randy. I agree with all of your comments.<br /><br />FRI night into SAT appears to be a significant rain period as the Gulf is wide open for business. SUN looks to be the better opportunity for severe as better mid-upper air dynamics come into play.<br /><br />Timing is everything & that will be the case on SUN. Need to watch closely. NovakWeathernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-27006728185011247522014-06-25T21:52:58.826-05:002014-06-25T21:52:58.826-05:00I agree with NovakWeather about this weekend (see ...I agree with NovakWeather about this weekend (see my post in this thread dated 6/20), but there are still many things undecided at this time. For instance will the cap break Friday or Saturday afternoon, if it does all bets are off. The cap that I'm referring to will be found around 700mb as temps at that level could be between 13-15° C, that's warm enough that any updrafts that start to develop will have a hard time breaking through that layer, but it only takes one updraft to break it, than others will follow suit.<br /><br />#2 There will be plenty of convection occurring around the area, say within 200 miles of any one point, will convective debris (ie blow off from those storms) keep us from seeing strong sunshine during the peak heating hours of 12 and 4pm?, if so the area will fail to see the destabilization that most models are showing.<br /><br />Now my attention turns to Sunday evening, and the 06/25 12z model suite is fairly consistent with a cold front slamming into very unstable air over the MN/Dakota's border area during the late afternoon time frame. If that should happen and the models are right in their depiction of things, a severe wind threat is highly possible over much of Central and SE MN. With the soil as saturated as it is, plus with more heavy rain possible before Sunday night, I cringe at the amount of trees that could come down on homes and power lines.<br /><br />One more thing about Friday and Saturday night, while we may be caped during the afternoon and early evening, a nocturnal lower level jet may develop during the overnight hours providing enough lift for heavy to severe storms during the overnight hours.<br /><br />Model output will change considerably during the next two days, and this event will be a moving target, but right now if things hold, Sunday evening looks nasty. randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-65249280958646122352014-06-25T20:40:36.124-05:002014-06-25T20:40:36.124-05:00Thanks for the reply, NovakWeather. I hear you. Th...Thanks for the reply, NovakWeather. I hear you. That's why I check your twitter on a regular basis and this website. You know more than a bunch of them put together, not that I don't also follow noaa. Keep keeping us up to date/informed/educated. I will definitely keep my eye on the skies in the coming days based on your worries re: severe weather.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-62964707224858440242014-06-25T18:41:59.575-05:002014-06-25T18:41:59.575-05:00Anonymous,
I couldn't agree more with you when...Anonymous,<br />I couldn't agree more with you when it comes to AccuWeather & long range forecasts in general. Once you go past the 10-14 day period, it is a crap shoot & any decent weather forecaster knows this. I believe organizations attempt to forecast months in advance to get the ratings without giving a rat's ass about their reputation. <br /><br />Oh, & don't get me going about the 'Farmer's Almanac', Hurricane season forecasting & Dave Dahl's snow annual snow prediction forecasts.NovakWeathernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-50325855617895898972014-06-25T18:37:29.860-05:002014-06-25T18:37:29.860-05:00I'm very concerned that a widespread severe we...I'm very concerned that a widespread severe weather outbreak will occur over much of MN this weekend, esp. Sunday. The Jet is unusually strong for this time of the year & it is slamming into the Upper Midwest as winds near the surface are coming straight from the Gulf of Mexico. This is a classic recipe for severe storms as dry air off the Rockies slams into moist air from the Gulf. <br /><br />NovakWeathernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-86509212736418758442014-06-25T10:26:38.063-05:002014-06-25T10:26:38.063-05:00I never rely on Accuweather; I refer to them as &#...I never rely on Accuweather; I refer to them as 'innaccuweather' after learning a few years back how unreliable they are. That is why I cherish this website, and people like Novak, randyinchamplin and others who put forth far more accurate predictions and discussions. I know this site isn't as 'busy' spring/summer, but I appreciate the chance to check it for updates, discussions, and its lively winter information. I continue to thank Bill for keeping it alive after his move out west.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-9627657460913828302014-06-24T16:15:16.070-05:002014-06-24T16:15:16.070-05:00As this site is dedicated to good and accurate wea...As this site is dedicated to good and accurate weather forecasting does anyone else think that Accuweather's month forcast is a joke. This morning they were forecasting 94 for July fourth and this afternoon it is down to 80. Why even do it? It should be embarrasing to them. They bounce tempatures all around with wild swings Is that really forecasting? Please tell me if I am missing something.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-6074986336284953342014-06-22T09:25:20.356-05:002014-06-22T09:25:20.356-05:00One record that sure will be broken today or befor...One record that sure will be broken today or before June ends is most rainfall for the month of June.....the record is 11.67"(set back in 1874), we are sitting on 10.76".......a mere .91" away and with rain in the forecast practically everday for the rest of the month that record for sure should fall.<br />Still no 90° high yet........woo-hoo!!!..........but June is now running above average for the month, our consecutive streak may come to an end.bigdaddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-30272150617637463082014-06-20T22:51:52.320-05:002014-06-20T22:51:52.320-05:00It's way to early to get into specs, but next ...It's way to early to get into specs, but next weekend, say from Friday evening into Saturday evening, depending on what model you chose, things could get very interesting around here.randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-68610576379228629072014-06-20T22:04:14.397-05:002014-06-20T22:04:14.397-05:00I was looking at visible satellite this evening an...I was looking at visible satellite this evening and the cap came close to breaking just west of the metro, I think the outlook was warranted, although this was a tough forecast. randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-21534779664758756912014-06-20T21:30:00.234-05:002014-06-20T21:30:00.234-05:00if there was a hall of fame for unwarranted weathe...if there was a hall of fame for unwarranted weather watches, tonight would be exhibit 'A.'Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-51990128922512343552014-06-18T16:41:48.813-05:002014-06-18T16:41:48.813-05:00the CAP broke last night. The are several trigger...the CAP broke last night. The are several triggers that can "get things going" however, if the upper layers of the atmosphere are capped (warm air at all levels) T-Storm development is limited until the cap "breaks" and several factors can do this. The last night storm, tonights, and probably tomorrows will be due to the upper layer cooling as the sun sets although tomorrows activity will be due to a cold front.<br /><br />The storms you speak of - the afternoon variety, usually happens when there is no cap present or there are other factors that can erode at the cap quite quickly. The most common factor is the cold front running into the warm moist airmasses.<br /><br />There is a lot of science to this and more than I know or want to get into however, it is fascinating stuff.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-36233636788299678852014-06-18T09:27:25.020-05:002014-06-18T09:27:25.020-05:00Quick question for the mets. What is the final fa...Quick question for the mets. What is the final factor in kicking off the storms last night, and the ones slated today? Last night, the storms started popping around 10PM over southern MN. Why 10PM, vs. 2:00 or 4:00 or 6:00 when the sun was baking the atmosphere? I guess I just don't understand what the last factor that causes these storms to pop. The NWS says that storms will pop between 7PM-12AM tonight. Why so late? I would have imagined the storms to start popping while the sun was still up. I was under the impression that storms tended to lose their severity and punch as the sun sets. The storms last night and tonight appear as they are setting off and strengthening without the help of the sun. Thoughts?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-9153391721807938702014-06-18T08:04:12.379-05:002014-06-18T08:04:12.379-05:00Mankato received almost 4 inches of rain from the ...Mankato received almost 4 inches of rain from the storm last night. ground is very saturated and with more storms today and tomorrow flooding will be a major concern down here. Jerradnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-44798718582512162812014-06-17T23:03:54.657-05:002014-06-17T23:03:54.657-05:00From the SPC meso disco that I mentioned earlier.....From the SPC meso disco that I mentioned earlier......"DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS INTENSIFYING STORMS OVER NRN WI AND<br /> THE PRICE COUNTY WISCONSIN STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HAIL PER<br /> WDSS-II MESH IMAGERY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND INTENSIFYING<br /> CONVECTION ARE EVIDENT FARTHER WEST IN S-CNTRL MN AS ISENTROPIC<br /> ASCENT LIFTS PARCELS TO THEIR LFC. THE WIND PROFILE IS<br /> SUPERCELL-SUPPORTIVE AND THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS MAY ACQUIRE<br /> STORM-SCALE ROTATION. STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY /2500 J PER KG<br /> MUCAPE/ ACCORDING TO THE 00Z MPX RAOB WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR<br /> A LARGE HAIL THREAT AS A WARM FRONTAL ZONE GRADUALLY ADVANCES NWD<br /> TONIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECTING ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE<br /> HAIL-PRODUCING STORMS TO DEVELOP.'<br /><br />sorry they use all caps.randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-71672814962577430292014-06-17T22:58:42.864-05:002014-06-17T22:58:42.864-05:00By the way nice job by all four members of the HOP...By the way nice job by all four members of the HOPWRF model in showing that, the timing was about right, the location not bad.randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-62134251717029619702014-06-17T22:50:11.844-05:002014-06-17T22:50:11.844-05:00The cap was broken about 10:20 pm just sw of Hutch...The cap was broken about 10:20 pm just sw of Hutchinson, a Meso disco is now out for MSP, not sure what to expect but things could get interesting.randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-14485935743994169522014-06-17T21:27:41.152-05:002014-06-17T21:27:41.152-05:00Hi Jason. I am not a researcher. But it sounds lik...Hi Jason. I am not a researcher. But it sounds like people with some knowledge have come forth.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-80933281308055889632014-06-17T13:50:48.378-05:002014-06-17T13:50:48.378-05:001993 May have been Mt. Pinatubo.1993 May have been Mt. Pinatubo.Joel Fischerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16151003904789150403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-47464694832628620332014-06-17T09:57:51.823-05:002014-06-17T09:57:51.823-05:00It depends how you're measuring it and what hi...It depends how you're measuring it and what historical range you're using. I keep records of high and low temps, and I have a script that averages each of them, and compares them to the long-term average. So for May 2014, for example, the combined hi/lo average was +0.45. The average high was -0.70 compared to the 1891-current average. The average low was +1.15.<br /><br />According to my data, November 2013 was almost dead-on average.<br /><br />I think the NWS might be using 1980-2010 for averages, or a similar, more current range than what I use. The climate has changed since 1891, but I like to look at all the data together.<br /><br />The other question is, are you looking at just daily highs and lows, or hourly readings, or some other frequency?<br /><br />It's really not cut and dried.Disconoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-35246078058763252902014-06-17T09:24:36.437-05:002014-06-17T09:24:36.437-05:00@Bill, so who can help with this, are you a resear...@Bill, so who can help with this, are you a researcher??, is bigdaddy or disco correct on our consecutive cooler then average month streak. Just curious is all, I find it interesting that there are two sets of numbers being thrown around, which I don't think is possible, it either is or isnt, temperature averages seem pretty cut and dry to me.<br />Jasonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-29216868033588365762014-06-17T02:26:40.172-05:002014-06-17T02:26:40.172-05:00@Disco, not sure where you get your records from b...@Disco, not sure where you get your records from but according to the NWS Twin Cities May was 0.6 below average effectively keeping our consecutive streak of cooler then average temps going on 7 months dating back to November 2013!bigdaddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-10053765588056618082014-06-16T11:44:58.504-05:002014-06-16T11:44:58.504-05:00Yes of course. 1993 was the great floods on the M...Yes of course. 1993 was the great floods on the Mississippi. Cant reley on memory any more.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com