tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post6738116285745416928..comments2024-03-26T10:45:14.207-05:00Comments on The Minnesota Forecaster: Monday Monday, What Will You Bring?Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comBlogger156125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-24388909234797889092016-01-03T23:11:09.392-06:002016-01-03T23:11:09.392-06:00Done!Done!Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-37365764907248748592016-01-03T22:50:07.423-06:002016-01-03T22:50:07.423-06:00Novak mentioned something earlier today about the ...Novak mentioned something earlier today about the mix potential for end of the week. Bill how about a new thread for the end of the week?Not Paul Douglashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16778922218590382489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-9304947776902919962016-01-03T08:58:47.270-06:002016-01-03T08:58:47.270-06:00Another case of disappointment for snowlovers on t...Another case of disappointment for snowlovers on the horizon? Last night NWS had all snow chances from Wed thru Sat. now they have introduced rain as well with temperatures climbing above freezing. Rain in January means two things, we don't get more snow and two it takes anyway whatever snow that is on the ground.<br />@randyinchamplain I love the mention of 'cold air filtering in'!filtered cold anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-22477020899778697242016-01-02T22:51:49.740-06:002016-01-02T22:51:49.740-06:00There has been some conversation regarding next Fr...There has been some conversation regarding next Friday and Saturday in respect to a winter storm. The 01/02 12z models depicted 3 different results. The Euro would dump the heaviest snow over the metro, the GFS over SW MN and the Gem over the state of Missouri, into far southern Iowa.<br /><br />Looking at the 01/02 12z teleconections shows some consistency between the models, however I don't have the Euro idea for the AO (Arctic oscillation), but the Gem and and the GFS seem to point to a negative solution which would lead to colder air filtering in. All three models are in agreement in regards to a -EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) prevailing during that time frame. These two teleconnections would strongly hint at the Gem solution being the correct one. As a matter of fact the 01/03 0z run of the GFS has moved the track of the surface low way south, more in line with the Gem. <br /> <br /> <br />randyinchamplinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07607833493422286368noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-75047393899921522092016-01-02T21:07:29.272-06:002016-01-02T21:07:29.272-06:00DD was very close ... Just 1/2" off! The 0.5&...DD was very close ... Just 1/2" off! The 0.5" on 12/23/15 at least made the landscape white but not quite enough for an official 1" on the ground per NWS. The 12/23 event was a definite underachiever which many thought would get MSP to official White Christmas status since cold enough temps afterward would keep the melting at a minimum. Maybe next year. <br />DDwx (Daniel) DDwxhttp://www.twitter.com/DDwxnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-81160358808585928472016-01-02T15:05:11.487-06:002016-01-02T15:05:11.487-06:00At the end of the day, shouldn't we give DD th...At the end of the day, shouldn't we give DD the benefit of the doubt?<br />He was really off by less than a day with his guarantee of a White Christmas...<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-29681238424868577182016-01-01T15:57:23.476-06:002016-01-01T15:57:23.476-06:00Happy New Year to all the weather(snow)enthusiasts...Happy New Year to all the weather(snow)enthusiasts on this board. Hope 2016 treats you well and delivers good health to you and your loved ones and of course delivers <br />whatever weather your heart desires....for me of course is a lot more snow!<br />Snow fantasy update:<br />Golden Valley,MN.....13" (+12" spread)<br />Jackson,NJ(central NJ).....0"<br />25-0.....my brother is fuming because not even a hint of winter there but I keep telling him 13" for me is a pretty sub par year and one Noreaster for him and he's right back into the game...especially when it looks like the pattern to a stormy/colder east is setting up by mid-January.bigdaddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-72607894226244042152016-01-01T01:24:04.611-06:002016-01-01T01:24:04.611-06:00Great note, Daniel. I, and I'm sure others, lo...Great note, Daniel. I, and I'm sure others, look forward to your input. I'm also endeavoring to do a better job keeping out the mean-spirited riff raff.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-91322088444883333042015-12-31T19:52:42.766-06:002015-12-31T19:52:42.766-06:00Dan, those were some great suggestions and comment...Dan, those were some great suggestions and comments. I look forward to your ideas and posts in the future. As a amateur weather nut I say the more mets on here in the future the better. The low tracks at 850/700/500mb's are huge. Especially when you track the winds upstream. Does the amount of humidity that the models show at each level make sense considering their origin? Once again thank you for stopping back. randyinchamplinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07607833493422286368noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-87577542292525799952015-12-31T17:02:36.637-06:002015-12-31T17:02:36.637-06:00Well said Dan. Thanks.Well said Dan. Thanks.Novak Weathernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-22634101620640069842015-12-31T16:21:24.666-06:002015-12-31T16:21:24.666-06:00Fun to read all the comments albeit some a little ...Fun to read all the comments albeit some a little mean-spirited/angry regarding the winter event. Most of us thankfully enjoyed it, especially those in the southern metro including myself. :-) It's nice to experience the storms creating all the discussion rather than watching from afar in Atlanta as done in years past. Looking at all the forecasts from the various outlets noted in precious posts I can't say there was a total bust or abhorrent failure in any of them. The Twin Ciites is a lot like metro Atlanta where storm tracks have a real knack for splitting the metro into portions for snow (or precip type, etc) received and thus makes the task of forecasting a good challenge. <br /><br />I see a lot of references to the models and this and that to the nth degree yet rarely see some good discussion of the current situ at the surface and aloft as well as satellite (IR, water vapor) and radar (standard and DP products). These topics help a ton in diagnosing whether model x, y, or z are truly initializing and handling the wx correctly. Also, missing even from the newer meteorologists trained heavily on model dependence are the old but still very reliable forecast techniques left to sit on the dusty tool shelf. Cooks Method, Magic Chart, Garcia Method, 850/700/500 low tracks, pressure rise/fall couplets, orientations of such and several other techniques are never mentioned. These use current/observed and/or model prognostic data. <br /><br />Granted this season has been a good challenge due to some abnormal weather patterns and intensity of such and subsequent storms, but really hammering out the details of current weather analysis of the aforementioned factors can still help considerably. I admire those who are weather aficionados looking at the charts on the Internet and can make some nice interpretations; however, truth be told the trained meteorologists that know the model nuances and can really analyze current weather and base some experience with that and climatology, too, definitely have a step up as they should due to the additional training. I know a decent amount about gadgets and data but will never be offended if someone with years of training corrects or informs me of the truth about something --I expect him/her to do so. The same can and should be expected in weather forecasting. <br /><br />I will try I to re-engage a little more on this forum as I used to when living in Atlanta as winter storms are the reason I got into meteorology nearly 30 years ago when weather maps and models were only available in wx offices on divas dot matrix printers with the Batotropic then LFM then NGM and AVN models in black and white useful. You HAD to know your meteorology that is for sure with such limited information compared to today. <br /><br />So, let's have fun and learn from each other. Sign in with a real name or at least a cool handle and contribute. I think we have enough crappy websites out there where people rip each other to shreds. If I have that much anger and frustration I just take it out at the dojo on the heavy bags and my workout partners ... Well, not too bad, anyway. :-) <br /><br />By the way, I officially measured 7" here in southeast Rosemount -- it was awesome to see it falling and actually accumulating. <br /><br />Thanks Bill for keeping the website going. <br /><br />DDwxDDwxhttp://www.twitter.com/DDwxnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-83743544940485461582015-12-31T00:01:16.141-06:002015-12-31T00:01:16.141-06:00Just got back from a nice trip to sunny Southern C...Just got back from a nice trip to sunny Southern California. It was warmer than I expected! <br /><br />I was following a bit on facebook (though not here) the snowstorm that came through. NWS was somewhat breathless with the 8-12 predictions for the core metro. Then they backed off, but just a little.<br /><br />I'm in Roseville. I came home to probably five inches in the driveway, and that includes whatever fell over the weekend. (Yes, I understand it gets compacted.) But hell, even the plow didn't make the driveway impassible!<br /><br />As a bonafide snow hater who just came from a run on the beach at Santa Monica, I'll take five inches over what we could've gotten!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-52153273786135839312015-12-30T12:37:09.810-06:002015-12-30T12:37:09.810-06:00A several years ago, forecasters were perplexed by...A several years ago, forecasters were perplexed by how far off they were when forecasting daytime highs during the month of January (by 10 - 20 degrees). This particular year, January had little to no snow. What was happening was the computer models were basing their calculations on 12"+ inch snow depth. Once the "Mets" figured this out and plugged in the zero snow variable, forecasting temps became accurate again.<br /><br />I wonder if something like this is occurring and a code needs to be tweaked.MNMOXIEhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09600760336033593129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-74856321514017785542015-12-30T10:33:09.448-06:002015-12-30T10:33:09.448-06:00The WPC probabilistic forecasts have been way too ...The WPC probabilistic forecasts have been way too high this year for MN systems. I'm guessing since that is a pure model ensemble forecast (it takes over 100 model runs), it is over doing QPF. Getting 1" of precip in Minnesota in winter is really really hard to do.<br /><br />I was in Lake City for this storm. I noticed during the peak of the storm, the crystals were very very tiny. I'm thinking it wasn't just melted crystals from a warm nose as the snow was very dry. Maybe it was some dryer air or lack of lift in the dendritic growth zone. The number of flakes flying was large enough for some big totals, but they weren't big enough to pile up.CWY2190https://www.blogger.com/profile/07489877587725781507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-91300581965111726402015-12-30T09:06:08.472-06:002015-12-30T09:06:08.472-06:00Good point PWL.
You'd never hear of a bust whe...Good point PWL.<br />You'd never hear of a bust when the prediction is less than actual.<br />I believe people tend to believe that forecasters (especially in tv stations)generally 'hype' a storm and so are less flexible when you overforecast and miss.<br />It is also to be noticed that according to my (incomplete) tracking there is evidence of a tendency to overforecast snowfall amounts by an average of 15%. I would like to know where that comes from: a bias in the models? forecasting approach (although we know it does not apply to KARE)?Rigil Kentnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-9104742809137426762015-12-30T08:00:40.838-06:002015-12-30T08:00:40.838-06:00Excellent comments, PWL. Bill, thanks again for pr...Excellent comments, PWL. Bill, thanks again for providing this forum for us weather enthusiasts. I am impressed that you kept it going even after moving to the Left Coast, ummm, I mean California. <br /><br />I just reviewed the forecasts at the beginning of this blog. Everyone, except weather.com, nailed it for us here in the south/southeast burbs. We picked up 8 inches in Apple Valley/Rosemount. Obviously, the fly in the ointment was that the GFS was correct all along in predicting that the storm would shift east. Several forecasters, including the NWS, kept saying that the GFS was the outlier. Although, to be fair, the NWS did initially hesitate in posting Warnings, at least partially due to the GFS prediction. The shift east clearly substantially affected the northern metro and to a lesser extent the core metro. I agree that the forecasters were accurate regarding the intensity of the storm. However, it was the placement of the heaviest snow that caused some problems. On the other hand, last week the NWS predicted 3-5 inches for us down here, but we only picked up an inch. Mom Nature can be quite fickle at times. <br /><br />As for Green Bay, yes, that was a big surprise. My sister-in-law and her family left here Sunday morning to go back home to Sturgeon Bay (Door County). I was telling her about our pending storm. She was a little disappointed that she was going to return to brown ground and that there was little in the way of snow in her forecast. She called yesterday and said that they picked up a foot of snow and that friends of hers in Green Bay got 13.5 inches! For some reason that never seems to happen here in the metro. If anything it always seems to be just the opposite. lol On that note, it would undoubtedly be exciting for us to have predictions of little to no snow and instead receive a big snowfall. However, the other side of me, for planning and safety reasons, almost prefers a substantial over prediction versus a substantial under prediction. Of course, I much prefer an accurate prediction, but we are dealing with nature after all. Oh well, just a quick detour thought. At any rate, at least all of the metro now has at least some snow on the gorund. My little sister in Delaware is a snow junkie like me. The Delaware/Philly area has barely seen a flake this season. All of the rain and extremely warm temperatures are really bumming her. While some of us didn't get much snow from this storm, just keep in mind that things could be much worse! <br /><br />It's time to turn all eyes to the horizon in search of the next snowstorm. Unfortunately, it looks very quiet here for the next week. Happy New Year, everyone!Snow Meisternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-67771379410801422742015-12-29T23:08:44.365-06:002015-12-29T23:08:44.365-06:00So, I will take a stab at this and give my post-st...So, I will take a stab at this and give my post-storm analysis.<br /><br />I think it is interesting how the word "bust" is used so differently by people. I just looked up the word on dictionary.com and it means, in this use, "a complete failure." That is the only definition that would come close to matching its use in this context. One could use this in several ways pertaining to a storm system. If one said that this "storm was a bust" that that would not be accurate in this case as the storm did happen and happened as expected in terms of its intensity and massive impacts on a large scale basis across the Midwest (and elsewhere). If one were to say that the "forecast was a bust" that would be a little better use of the word and would actually be something that could and should be discussed. I think this is more than semantics. The storm was not a bust. It was as intense as most models predicted. The forecasters ranged in their predictions as did the models. I would argue that the models were a bust, to some extent. They nailed the intensity of the storm but they missed by about 30-50 miles in what was expected on this side of the storm. That is still not a "complete failure" in my opinion. <br /><br />Another example: Green Bay was suppose to get an inch as late as the Sunday forecast. (I have a brother who lives there and I monitor his weather as well.) Within 12 hours, that forecast had changed to state 6-10 inches and ultimately switched, once the storm began, to 12-14 inches. (They ended up with around 12 inches.) There are not too many people there calling the forecast or the storm a bust. Why? Because it happened the other way. Not much forecasted, storm shifted, increased totals, kept snowing, increased totals more, and everyone was somewhat surprised versus incredibly disappointed/angry. This is an interesting phenomenon to me--the feeling attached to under predicting versus over predicting.<br /><br />Bottom line: This storm was not a bust. Some forecasts struggled with getting the right prediction, especially as the storm was showing signs of shifting. Were some forecasts a "complete failure"? I suppose some, but not the ones that we have come to follow the most: NWS and Novak being the main two we tend to follow on here. When you look back to the lead-in to this blog entry, most of the predictions from the various weather outlets did not meet the definition of a bust. In fact, most were pretty dang close if not spot on.<br /><br />My 2.5 cents.<br /><br />Now bring it to the next storm......Plymouth Weather Lovernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-47953080858665082432015-12-29T22:36:13.667-06:002015-12-29T22:36:13.667-06:00Thanks for these great details Randy. This is why ...Thanks for these great details Randy. This is why I'm here. Jasonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-78915112045379745662015-12-29T21:34:40.136-06:002015-12-29T21:34:40.136-06:00As far as model predictions for this storm. First ...As far as model predictions for this storm. First of all I hate the NAM model, it has been woefully inaccurate on cold season storms since 2008 when I started to look at the models. The ECMWF used to be pretty darn good at this latitude, until it received a upgrade a couple of years ago. Since then I think its cold weather forecast has become questionable ( I have no evidence of this.) I now hate it when the Nam and the Euro agree with a cold season storm and all other guidance is different with 12-48/ hours. The question is can you trust the Nam that far out? if your answer is no, than out of necessity you shouldn't quote the Euro either. <br /><br />I also had a question regarding cold and drier air being injected into the storm, but that was just looking at the mass fields. Working 9 out of the last 10 days did not allow me to take a closer look, thus I was quiet about any forecast. <br /><br />randyinchamplinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07607833493422286368noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-47016651296059308522015-12-29T21:00:30.222-06:002015-12-29T21:00:30.222-06:001st of all my comments on the direction this threa...1st of all my comments on the direction this thread was headed the last few days. In respect to filtered cold anonymous, I loved the way you so passionately believed that cold air, (however I would describe it better as drier air) would keep the system at bay. I think most of the posters were having a problem following you when you were posting as just anonymous. It may help to post a link to what you are seeing, you don't have to draw on it, but a written description should suffice. Also a good forecaster apologies when he is wrong and remains silent when he/she is right, unless someone compliments them, at which time a proper response would be something like.... I followed so and so model as I thought it depicted the dry air intrusion at whatever level correctly.<br /><br />Secondly, it was encouraging to see so many people expressing their thoughts on the storm while signing some sort of name. The passion for winter storms was well evident. I would hope all poster here would help direct traffic to this site, not only for winter but also for the severe season. randyinchamplinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07607833493422286368noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-5562892853760714912015-12-29T20:07:15.968-06:002015-12-29T20:07:15.968-06:00Why don't you give us your total number for th...Why don't you give us your total number for the season instead of being so arrogant and disrespectful of anyone you disagree with?<br />Also those who actually make forecast can get them wrong.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-20137404851739884042015-12-29T18:20:00.303-06:002015-12-29T18:20:00.303-06:00The big busts were the northern counties. St. Clo...The big busts were the northern counties. St. Cloud barely got anything. Everyone bombed that big time.CWY2190https://www.blogger.com/profile/07489877587725781507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-70652043310140121232015-12-29T18:12:38.180-06:002015-12-29T18:12:38.180-06:005.5 at MSP now. I missed by .6". Dumb luck, b...5.5 at MSP now. I missed by .6". Dumb luck, but I was going with the GFS and the storm tracking a little further south. <br /><br />Filtered cold anonymous - love the name. <br /><br />Hope everyone can chill and focus on the weather. Fun board and I enjoyed following this for the last three days. Novak did a nice job on his video last night. I agree that missing by 30 - 50 miles is pretty impressive over the 3 days.<br /><br />Bill thanks for keeping this going. I came so close to the free chowder. Not Paul Douglashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16778922218590382489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-29305244045877983592015-12-29T16:21:02.315-06:002015-12-29T16:21:02.315-06:00@Randy Hill, I applaud you for coming on here and ...@Randy Hill, I applaud you for coming on here and just saying you were wrong, don't hear that too often, definitely havent heard it from Novak(even though his graphics as late as Monday had St. Cloud and Hinckley receiving 5-8" and then 3-5", which never happened).<br />As far as your comment about least snow, it wasn't me but I definitely believe we will fall far short of average. And your outlook for Jan/Feb, don't know what you call typical but January will be extremely quiet and boring unless we can get some over performing clippers(which we haven't had any yet), most storms will begin to sail way south of us and begin hammering the east coast.<br />So in ending enjoy whatever snow you do have in your yard/town because a quiet/boring January is shaping up, case in point look at the first ten days of the new year not much there!<br />@Neil/Jason I'm done, the proof lays in the comments abovefiltered cold anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-85592013000134839692015-12-29T16:05:58.406-06:002015-12-29T16:05:58.406-06:00Any idea what the location nearest to 26th and Ple...Any idea what the location nearest to 26th and Pleasant reported? I have no idea how to find this info. My forecast was for 2.7". Joel Fischerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16151003904789150403noreply@blogger.com