tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post7145129505503217099..comments2024-03-26T10:45:14.207-05:00Comments on The Minnesota Forecaster: "Massive Heat Wave" Off to Tepid StartBillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-91943305153838432272012-06-29T04:55:25.228-05:002012-06-29T04:55:25.228-05:00Thank you for this blog, I'm actually interest...Thank you for this blog, I'm actually interested in following weather updates.<br />I enjoy the heat wave by the way, I love when it's hot outside.Zackhttp://freescrabblehelper.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-35789758393889144952011-07-18T16:27:17.054-05:002011-07-18T16:27:17.054-05:00Just posted new heat wave thread...Just posted new heat wave thread...Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-36357310028481791692011-07-18T15:53:33.461-05:002011-07-18T15:53:33.461-05:00It might be a little off, but Marshall is reportin...It might be a little off, but Marshall is reporting similar numbers. That area is usually the hottest and most humid part of the state and this year it has extremely wet crops and farmland to moisten the air. Currently Madison's dew point is back up to 86 with humidity at 84% and a heat index of 121 while Marshall is currently reporting 82/71/116.ABnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-87993125081922954222011-07-18T14:54:02.394-05:002011-07-18T14:54:02.394-05:00Anyone wonder if the Madison weather set up is kos...Anyone wonder if the Madison weather set up is kosher?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-64241136298746538582011-07-18T14:43:54.957-05:002011-07-18T14:43:54.957-05:0093 with a dewpoint of 81 here in Red Wing right no...93 with a dewpoint of 81 here in Red Wing right now...yesturday we hit 118 thought for sure we were the hottest heat index in state but i was suprised. wouldn't be shocked if we got up to 116 or 117 todayMarcnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-80157472961198564202011-07-18T13:58:58.976-05:002011-07-18T13:58:58.976-05:00Madison, MN looks like it may win the prize again ...Madison, MN looks like it may win the prize again today. Currently they're at 95 with humidity and dew point both at 84. Heat index: 115.ABnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-63320371228832000992011-07-18T12:29:20.999-05:002011-07-18T12:29:20.999-05:00"they showed Minneapolis heat index at 124,se..."they showed Minneapolis heat index at 124,seriously is there any truth to that,have the local mets gone that high?" .......@big daddy, it is possible. Mid 90s with relative humidity at 75% would get it near 120; however, while our dew points have been 75-80, the relative humidity has been hovering between 60-70% most of the time. The real test will be Tue/Wed. With temps nearing 100 degrees, you only need 50-60% humidity for a heat index above 120.<br /><br />Here's NOAA's heat index chart: http://www.weather.gov/om/heat/index.shtmlABnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-6562471763295179302011-07-18T10:03:46.538-05:002011-07-18T10:03:46.538-05:00To Anonymous at 8:15 yesterday...
Be careful what...To Anonymous at 8:15 yesterday...<br /><br />Be careful what you say...<br /><br />http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.htmlbemakinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-28309106076126040082011-07-18T08:12:26.645-05:002011-07-18T08:12:26.645-05:00Bill,was watching the national news this morning(G...Bill,was watching the national news this morning(GMA)when the weather segment came on they showed Minneapolis heat index at 124,seriously is there any truth to that,have the local mets gone that high?big daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-18141298960327398702011-07-17T23:34:23.836-05:002011-07-17T23:34:23.836-05:00yeah anonymous they do seem like they will move so...yeah anonymous they do seem like they will move southwest of metro,well I guess I'll crank that AC at least it wont be a noisy nightbig daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-90169424727689861572011-07-17T23:05:12.937-05:002011-07-17T23:05:12.937-05:00@big daddy: radar trends look like this cell may g...@big daddy: radar trends look like this cell may go just southwest of the metro loopAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-41620520336199250062011-07-17T22:48:54.898-05:002011-07-17T22:48:54.898-05:00nice storm bearing down I-94,within metro I would ...nice storm bearing down I-94,within metro I would say in 2hrs or lessbig daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-91932493759663293542011-07-17T22:00:46.274-05:002011-07-17T22:00:46.274-05:00@Bill ...the ice scraper never leaves the car!!!@Bill ...the ice scraper never leaves the car!!!ABnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-24928416698983459972011-07-17T21:52:38.974-05:002011-07-17T21:52:38.974-05:00@AB I think part of the problem is that forecaster...@AB I think part of the problem is that forecasters are hyper sensitive to every appearance of a storm ramping up or winding down and make their forecasts accordingly. There's an underlying perception that they can be far more precise than they are ... and in a liquid (no pun intended) situation such as this, they just can't be.<br /><br />As for tomorrow, make sure you have an ice scraper handy in your car. :-)Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-69786701180344420812011-07-17T21:32:03.788-05:002011-07-17T21:32:03.788-05:00This weather is crazy! Forecasters can't even...This weather is crazy! Forecasters can't even settle on a forecast for tonight. One minute they're saying partly cloudy, the next minute they're saying torrential rains, and then back again. The same can be said about tomorrow. Sunny and scortching hot or stormy and miserably humid or both? The weather's been unpredictable since our first snowfall in November. So, do I wear shorts tomorrow? Jeans? Bring an umbrella? Sunglasses? Oy!ABnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-15363805267109263772011-07-17T20:20:25.497-05:002011-07-17T20:20:25.497-05:00current DP in golden valley is 81,highest I have e...current DP in golden valley is 81,highest I have ever been in,down right disgusting,oh how I wish it was 50 degrees air temp right now.big daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-51893284829996056212011-07-17T20:15:03.475-05:002011-07-17T20:15:03.475-05:00easy up people looks like "garden variety&quo...easy up people looks like "garden variety" storms,nothing we havent seen before or produce an f2 or greater tornado,relax!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-33832054386706822072011-07-17T19:51:28.213-05:002011-07-17T19:51:28.213-05:00Hello I have a question for the pros on this site,...Hello I have a question for the pros on this site, I just looked at the meso analysis page from the SPC , I see 26-29°C at the 850mb level. Is that to warm for convection to get going?randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-1019698452540130462011-07-17T17:31:12.307-05:002011-07-17T17:31:12.307-05:00wow look at this, if convection does get going cop...wow look at this, if convection does get going copious rain are possible <br /><br />http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s13/pwtr/pwtr_sf.gif?1310941651306randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-62061209151542453682011-07-17T15:26:38.103-05:002011-07-17T15:26:38.103-05:00sorry... forgot explanation... (fron SPC in Norman...sorry... forgot explanation... (fron SPC in Norman, OK)<br /><br />A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective bulk wind difference (EBWD), effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH), 100-mb mean parcel CAPE (mlCAPE), 100-mb mean parcel CIN (mlCIN), and 100-mb mean parcel LCL height (mlLCL).<br /><br />The index is formulated as follows:<br /><br />STP = (mlCAPE/1500 J kg-1) * ((2000-mlLCL)/1500 m) * (ESRH/150 m2 s-2) * (EBWD/20 m s-1) * ((200+mlCIN)/150 J kg-1)<br /><br />When the mlLCL is less than 1000 m AGL, the mlLCL term is set to one, and when the mlCIN is greater than -50 J kg-1, the mlCIN term is set to one. The EBWD term is capped at a value of 1.5, and set to zero when EBWD is less than 12.5 m s-1. Lastly, when the effective inflow base is above the ground, the entire index is set to zero. A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1 within an hour of tornado occurrence, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RUC analysis proximity soundings. <br /><br /><br />Additional information can be found here. (Please open this link in another browser window.)bemakinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-11793479613033211662011-07-17T15:21:32.459-05:002011-07-17T15:21:32.459-05:00Staggering... take a look at this. If you are fami...Staggering... take a look at this. If you are familliar with this, you will be amazed...<br /><br />http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=13#bemakinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-22085245955939951272011-07-17T13:34:13.456-05:002011-07-17T13:34:13.456-05:00Currently in Waconia: 89/105 with a dew point of 7...Currently in Waconia: 89/105 with a dew point of 79. The temperature has gone up 2-3 degrees per hour. Could still reach the low 90s. The storms seem to be fizzling a little as they hit the hottest air.<br /><br />Yes, the high temperature predictions appear to be off due to the amount of clouds around, but the heat index is what matters and it's right where they said it would be. A few degrees "cooler" temperatures will NOT reduce the severity of this heat wave.ABnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-46151215304212005682011-07-17T12:12:10.842-05:002011-07-17T12:12:10.842-05:00from the SPC in Norman OK
IF THE
SCENARIO EVOL...from the SPC in Norman OK<br /><br />IF THE<br /> SCENARIO EVOLVES AS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE MDT RISK AREA<br /> MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FARTHER SE INTO MORE OF MN...AND POSSIBLY<br /> EVEN NW WI FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-11426529214483934862011-07-17T11:43:11.631-05:002011-07-17T11:43:11.631-05:00Storms building/popping out west,looks like high t...Storms building/popping out west,looks like high temps won't be realized today with those moving east,man is it gross out,weather channel is live at target field today talking about our heat and comparing it to the last time they were here when we were approaching -30 below wind chills,I would take that weather then this any dayBig daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-26807619773776812922011-07-17T11:36:19.472-05:002011-07-17T11:36:19.472-05:00@NovakWeather Concern for severe weather in MSP as...@NovakWeather Concern for severe weather in MSP as well or just north and east?Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com