tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post7545099125358431878..comments2024-03-26T10:45:14.207-05:00Comments on The Minnesota Forecaster: Grades for Non-Storm of Late DecemberBillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comBlogger36125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-79236357772131946502012-01-03T06:23:37.261-06:002012-01-03T06:23:37.261-06:00It has snowed in the wintertime for many years her...It has snowed in the wintertime for many years here in Minnesota. Since when is three inches of snow, or lack thereof, news anyway?Dave SPnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-44070362310740984762011-12-31T11:34:34.693-06:002011-12-31T11:34:34.693-06:00@AB I couldn't agree more...and this wasn'...@AB I couldn't agree more...and this wasn't meant to be a slam on the NWS by any means, but more an observation. It would figure though, that we don't see anything what so ever through pretty much the whole first part of winter, just to get something on a busy travel evening.Duanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10787345530045701289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-73451408057678097882011-12-31T10:47:04.655-06:002011-12-31T10:47:04.655-06:00@Duane, the lack of watch/advisory preceding it is...@Duane, the lack of watch/advisory preceding it is a testament to this winter in general. Although Novak saw potential for this storm days ago, the models only picked up on it in the past 24 hours.ABnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-38125450044205753742011-12-31T10:42:48.569-06:002011-12-31T10:42:48.569-06:00Just my personal thinking as well. If this wasn&#...Just my personal thinking as well. If this wasn't New Years Eve, or any other busy travel evening, I think the NWS would have simply gone with widespread advisories. I just think they are really trying to hammer home to anyone thinking of driving tonight to really take it easy out there. People will still be stupid on the roads and crash, but in the NWS's mind, they did all they could do to warn people of today. I will say though, that I think this may be one of the first times I've seen a Winter Storm Warning issued without a watch issued. I have seen upgrades from advisories to warnings, but not a warning right out of the gates. Very interesting indeed. I also echo the props to Novak. Models took a while to really see it, but eventually they came around. Safe travels everyone!Duanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10787345530045701289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-2925825538376000762011-12-31T10:39:08.657-06:002011-12-31T10:39:08.657-06:00@Bill, I'll reply to your #2 in the new thread...@Bill, I'll reply to your #2 in the new thread.ABnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-84567943588710411222011-12-31T10:21:27.836-06:002011-12-31T10:21:27.836-06:00Just set up a new post for revised Saturday evenin...Just set up a new post for revised Saturday evening forecast.<br /><br />Two thoughts:<br />1) Big Daddy, yes it's odd for outlets like weather.com to show less than an inch while showing NWS forecast for considerably more. I guess that must have to do with a legal require or feeling that they need to share the official government-issued forecast.<br /><br />2) Based on collective forecasts surprising they've issued a Winter Storm Warning. If part of that is based on the context of it being New Years Eve, that still seems odd. I thought from an earlier discussion last month that criteria are fairly hard and fast (and vary by location in the country). Anyway, this will be an interesting event from a forecaster analysis perspective.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-57716290466570867492011-12-31T10:15:27.371-06:002011-12-31T10:15:27.371-06:00Wow. This was a surprise to wake up to!
First of...Wow. This was a surprise to wake up to!<br /><br />First off, it's not lost on me that weather.com was one of the few entities to call for little to no snow on Thursday night and they're still calling for an inch or less tonight. Warning or not, I will certainly take this storm with a grain of salt (or a plow truck full of it).<br /><br />Second, a WSW is issued when there is the potential for 6+ inches of snow OR winds are below blizzard criteria but bad enough to lead to whiteout conditions (clearly this is the criteria they're using for tonight's storm). In the immediate metro, with all the buildings and such, these conditions likely won't occur. However, there is life outside the loop! Even Hennepin county has some open rural areas along its far western border, and if you go out to the next ring (Carver, Wright, Scott, etc) whiteout conditions are likely should the snow materialize. <br /><br />Should the snow not materialize, well, then the NWS will have egg on their face, but better to have regret over being too cautious than regret over not being cautious enough.ABnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-43433488172642988022011-12-31T10:02:18.758-06:002011-12-31T10:02:18.758-06:00Big Daddy: I appreciate the props and it feels go...Big Daddy: I appreciate the props and it feels good to see this storm coming together like this. <br /><br /> I always believed that something significant was going to develop over Minnesota along the leading edge of this Arctic outbreak I just wasn't sure exactly where. For me, the upper level features were simply to good to ignore. 250mb Jet had a nice buckle over the Upper Midwest and the 500mb vort max was strengthening and moving just south of MN. Best of all, we finally have some true Arctic air to work with. The only problem was no concrete surface low tracking south of us.<br /><br />Low and behold, the models finally latched onto that surface low in the 12z runs. Now, we have everything coming together and a deepening surface low that tracks from DSM to Green Bay. The PERFECT track for a Winter Storm over southern/eastern MN. <br /><br />I'm very concerned that travelers will not take warning to what may happen this evening and overnight. With temperatures well above freezing this AM & early PM, it is easy to let your guard down and not believe what is forecasted. Plus, people are going to go out and party no matter what. Simply put, this is bad timing and the public might have less confidence in the weather forecasts, especially after yesterday's debacle.<br /><br />I expect a band of heavy snow to develop around 6pm or so over southern MN. This band will quickly extend northeast and intensify during the evening. As winds kick around to the north, travel conditions will become dangerous by midnight. The accumulating snow will likely be finished by sunrise, but if we get a good 6 to 9 hours of moderate/heavy snow, it will not be a surprise if someone close to the MSP metro has to dig out from 6"+ of snow. Combine this with strong winds overnight and tomorrow and you have a serious problem on hand.<br /><br />I will go with a solid 4"-7" band of snow across the metro. Optimistic, but why the hell not? I love snow.NovakWeathernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-37448889765608091542011-12-31T09:43:36.114-06:002011-12-31T09:43:36.114-06:00What a surprise this morning... I think going with...What a surprise this morning... I think going with a Winter Storm Warning is a bit overdone, and I'm already seeing panic from friends as a result. Would like to see Winter Weather and Freezing Rain Advisories used in place. Just my two rusty cents.<br /><br />@ShakopeeWeatherRyan Schwartzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00540746586735728334noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-42345233317941736042011-12-31T08:31:40.779-06:002011-12-31T08:31:40.779-06:00Wow - what the heck?
Woke up to the weather channe...Wow - what the heck?<br />Woke up to the weather channel with a Wind Advisory (which I knew about from last night) and a Winter Storm Warning. Although the weather channel is not on board as they are predicting 1" - just funny to see 1" and warning used in the same forecast.<br />This gives highway departments and tow truck operators plenty of heads up about later today. The public is not likely to change many plans over 2-4" of snow (think of people that have pre-paid for the evening).<br /><br />A couple of thoughts - (1) I know "Blowing Snow Advisory" is no longer a NWS product, but if it still existed, this seems like the type of event in which it would have been used. (2) If this were last winter and the same forecast, I'm wondering if a Winter Storm Warning would have been issued?<br />But I totally understand the warning given the timing of this event and lack of events thus far this winter. Let's just hope it pans out.<br /><br />Lastly - randyinchamplin, good "jinx" by calling the weather boring. I like your top 5 list. I would like to add a subset to your #1. The highest temp in Jan 2011 at MSP was only 32 (for a couple of hours on the 29th). That is very rare to not go above the freezing mark for the whole month.MN WeatherFanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01344670267965934110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-35094425930592615722011-12-31T06:16:59.146-06:002011-12-31T06:16:59.146-06:00To the regulars and Bill as well,let me ask you yo...To the regulars and Bill as well,let me ask you your opinions,went to check accuweather and weather.com on their take for our potential storm tonight,both have an inch at most for our total,both also have the NWS statement/alert on the winter storm warning,obviously depicting a whole different picture,isnt it confusing the public with two different outcomes on the same page?it just contradicts one another,thoughts?big daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-10581410198436258232011-12-31T06:10:37.685-06:002011-12-31T06:10:37.685-06:00Holy crap! winter storm warnings,in the winter wer...Holy crap! winter storm warnings,in the winter were having,pinch me cant be trueAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-32017715565727914862011-12-31T05:03:04.622-06:002011-12-31T05:03:04.622-06:00@Duane oh I totally got what Randy was saying,sorr...@Duane oh I totally got what Randy was saying,sorry if I sounded like a smartass,I knew he was just being sacrastic about our lame winter and lack of snow and were getting excited over 3 inches,I would take any snow at this point.<br />.....Talking of snow,believe it or not WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN PLACE AND YES IT INCLUDES THE METRO.Everyone should look at the NWS discussion page its a very good read and explains alot on their thinking and what they see happening today,at the highest end they have 5 inches(so Randy that may not bow so well for your trib prediction),but as noted by Duane QPF'S are rising(AB your memory of 2006 may hold true here as well)in the NWS discussion they state if changeover happens quicker and the band stalls higher amounts could be realized,in any event Novak I hope you dusted yourself off very quickly,your chance to redeem yourself is right in front of you(weather is funny business you can go from goat to hero in 48hrs)and Novak props for recongzing the potential of this storm several days ago when most everyone only cared about the warmth,you saw thru that and said somewhere near will have to deal with pretty bad conditions,well as of now that spot is eastern minnesota which includes the metro,everyone be safe if your out and about tonight. Bill looks like you need to turn around and start a new post,who would have thunk it in our boring winter you would have 3 posts in a matter of 3 days.big daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-7378013046918584122011-12-31T04:09:23.314-06:002011-12-31T04:09:23.314-06:00Well, honestly this is a little unexpected. I fig...Well, honestly this is a little unexpected. I figured the advisories could be issued due to the travel period and potential for reduced visibilities...but now the NWS is apparently issuing Winter Storm Warnings for certain areas. It has to be for the reduced visibilities, but I'm not exactly sure why they didn't just go with advisory across the whole area. I guess they are really trying to get the point across for those on the road. Anywho...stay tuned to this one.Duanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10787345530045701289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-12576750022250219932011-12-31T02:50:36.487-06:002011-12-31T02:50:36.487-06:00@big daddy...I think Randy was implying that he co...@big daddy...I think Randy was implying that he couldn't believe that, at the end of December, we would be looking forward to a 3 inch snowfall potential...meaning that we should have already seen several of these types of systems and it would be just another average day. I hope that makes sense. Now...a couple other things. The 06z NAM is coming in, and it doesn't appear to be changing things all that much, other than perhaps showing a tad bit more QPF. Another model that somewhat has my attention is the RPM model (sorry, this one isn't available to the public) It is showing a pretty nice area of snow blossoming near or west of the metro, and moving through. In fact, it actually has a band of perhaps 4-6 inches of snow north of the metro, up in the Hinkley/Duluth area...metro area it has 2-4. It also has the lake effect snow machine in full swing, with these cold winds blowing over the warm waters. The UP of Michigan will be likely be digging out from easily 12+ inches of snow (great snowmobiling up there, by the way). I'm still very curious to see if the models are overdoing things or not. The wake of this system still looking very windy. Don't be shocked to see several reports of gusts over 50mph in the open wind prone areas on Sunday. Oh, and in case anyone was wondering, 00z GFS data in Bufkit showing around 2 inches of snow for MSP.Duanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10787345530045701289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-44191227265199705832011-12-31T02:14:51.698-06:002011-12-31T02:14:51.698-06:00@Anonymous at 12:52am,watch the weather and stay o...@Anonymous at 12:52am,watch the weather and stay off the roads if they are bad and you want to be safe,we all take a risk leaving our houses daily,accidents can occur anytime,any place,I get that accidents rise in inclement weather,thats why you stay abreast to the forecasts/radar/nowcast and make a decision if you will venture outdoors with the drunken idiots and possible new snowfall on the ground,have a plan B,have a cocktail with the wife and watch the ball drop on TV,thats what I'll be doing,and watching the radar for that high QPF from Duane.big daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-23538956879146319242011-12-31T01:14:05.752-06:002011-12-31T01:14:05.752-06:00@randyinchamplin,because we are sick and tired at ...@randyinchamplin,because we are sick and tired at looking at the brown crap out our windows,I for one would love to see 3 inches,oh sorry 2.6 before midnight,and then like the Halloween blizzard of 1991 another 17 inches after midnight to ring in the new year(I know it wont happen but we could all dream big cant we?)maybe mother natures' resolution this year is to bring a bunch of snow to the snow lovers of MSP.big daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-90566944220505370842011-12-31T00:52:57.030-06:002011-12-31T00:52:57.030-06:00OK, show of hands! How many here are on their kne...OK, show of hands! How many here are on their knees, praying for a big snowfall on what is already one of the most dangerous driving nights? How many would like to ring in the new year with a bit of slip-sliding fun we had last New Year's Eve?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-16492346855827116432011-12-31T00:42:47.098-06:002011-12-31T00:42:47.098-06:00GEM and European models starting to increase QPF a...GEM and European models starting to increase QPF amounts for tomorrow night. It does look like there could be enough to warrant an advisory...should be interesting to see what the 12z model runs show.Duanenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-52049620098144525342011-12-30T23:00:01.938-06:002011-12-30T23:00:01.938-06:00http://204.2.104.196/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-S...http://204.2.104.196/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_48HR.gif<br /><br />Why in the H are we getting excited about a 3" snow fall LOLrandyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-11570011362145713052011-12-30T22:54:45.134-06:002011-12-30T22:54:45.134-06:00http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSN...http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_48HR.gifrandyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-38729158118974639382011-12-30T22:51:21.099-06:002011-12-30T22:51:21.099-06:00wow Duane except for a three hour timing diff the ...wow Duane except for a three hour timing diff the GFS seems to agreerandyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-48841817841779294592011-12-30T22:42:52.119-06:002011-12-30T22:42:52.119-06:00ok guys wish me luck...my dec snowfall guess on th...ok guys wish me luck...my dec snowfall guess on the star trib site was 8.2 we have 5.6...I need 2.6 by midnight on the 31st looks like it could be close...if at midnight we have 8.1 for the month I loose I can't go over.....LOLrandyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-14716752556346448142011-12-30T22:36:43.304-06:002011-12-30T22:36:43.304-06:00AB, I always judge the winter season as a whole in...AB, I always judge the winter season as a whole in the next years weather events, unless there is a record breaking snowfall, or record cold in the current year. sorry the record low snowfall and brown Xmas will go hand in hand into 2012, but I am kind of worried about the severe season next spring. So far the record low precip, rain or snow to Jan 1st I have to include into the drought, I hope that makes senserandyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-21115472567432518242011-12-30T22:24:56.633-06:002011-12-30T22:24:56.633-06:00Just in case anyone wanted a visual reference as t...Just in case anyone wanted a visual reference as to what I was talking about, here it is. One is the HiRes NAM "future radar", and the other is the precip type. Please note that the precip type doesn't show the intensity of the rain/sleet/snow. Looks like it has the low pass right over the La Crosse area, which is a good track if the change over can happen soon enough. <br /><br />Precip type: http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m203/duanewolter/cld28.gif<br /><br />Future radar: http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m203/duanewolter/rad28.gif<br /><br />I highly doubt that 10 inches of snow will fall from this, at least anywhere close to home, but that sure would be something. Taking a peak at the NAM data on Bufkit, it totals between 2.5 and 3 inches of snow for MSP. While overall totals shouldn't bee too high, I do wonder if the weather service will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for areas due to potentially a quick burst of snow, potential for reduced visibilities because of the increasing wind, and the fact that it is New Years Eve, and plenty may be on the road. Overnight and tomorrow's 12z runs will need to be watched closely for any drastic changes, much like our failed system yesterday.Duanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10787345530045701289noreply@blogger.com