tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post792435184250390675..comments2024-03-19T03:07:49.422-05:00Comments on The Minnesota Forecaster: As Sub-Zero Subsides, Will "Warmth" Herald More Snow?Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comBlogger171125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-10230837301409570942014-02-23T22:07:19.705-06:002014-02-23T22:07:19.705-06:00All: I had to change requirements for posting comm...All: I had to change requirements for posting comments because of spam. I changed it to "registered" so those commenting as "Anonymous" may not longer be able to do so. If you're have any problems, email me at mnforecaster@gmail.comBillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-28646878941307265102014-02-23T20:25:19.914-06:002014-02-23T20:25:19.914-06:00absolutely wrong.
The official reporting station f...absolutely wrong.<br />The official reporting station for temps and precip has been at Chanassen from 2000 to 2004.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-15595938346792368892014-02-23T11:18:10.515-06:002014-02-23T11:18:10.515-06:00The reporting station was never at Chanhassen. It...The reporting station was never at Chanhassen. It moved from downtown Minneapolis to the airport.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-27276743341877943132014-02-23T11:08:59.512-06:002014-02-23T11:08:59.512-06:00Thanks Randy, so in other words cold and dry for t...Thanks Randy, so in other words cold and dry for the foreseeable future, not what I wanted to hear......was hoping for some more white gold. I know some of you have had enough winter already but our summers are hot enough another month of winter won't kill anyone.bigdaddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-80039134567071486722014-02-23T01:07:30.152-06:002014-02-23T01:07:30.152-06:00@bigdaddy, to answer one of your questions January...@bigdaddy, to answer one of your questions January 23, 1982 holds the record for snow depth at MSP with 38". As of today we are at 23" with no real melting in sight, so if we happen to receive another major winter storm before any warm-up we could threaten that record or at least make a run at it.Samnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-66628264389416358792014-02-22T23:05:54.913-06:002014-02-22T23:05:54.913-06:00@ bigdaddy to answer your question about next week...@ bigdaddy to answer your question about next weekend. I have been watching the GFS and GEM operational models vs their ensemble means at the 500mb level. The ensemble means have been showing a stronger southeastern ridge than the operational runs. I was thinking that the GFS operational was holding the ridge in place a bit longer that would happen thus giving us a winter storm, while the GEM operational was breaking the ridge down to fast and taking the storm track way to far south. While I was typing this the GFS model came in and has a major hit over IA. I think this is more likely to be closer to reality. After all, that has been the pattern this winter when we get a cold dome of air over us. However as we get into the 2nd and 3rd weeks of March all bets are off.<br /><br />I Hope that all makes sense.randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-3344432720699684842014-02-22T22:28:13.216-06:002014-02-22T22:28:13.216-06:00Aviation safety is why most ASOS stations are at a...Aviation safety is why most ASOS stations are at airports. Sure they report temperature, but more importantly the observations include things like visibility, precip (eg freezing rain at airport but snow at Chanhassen), and cloud coverage/height. CWY2190https://www.blogger.com/profile/07489877587725781507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-19167948865602101962014-02-22T16:32:25.055-06:002014-02-22T16:32:25.055-06:00Does anyone know why the official reading doesn...Does anyone know why the official reading doesn't come out of the NWS office, it used to for many years.......why the change back?.......I would think Chanhassen is a more accurate reading of what is going on around the TC then the airport.<br />On the weather front I'm hearing rumblings of a potential storm for next weekend....Novak, Duane, or Randyinchamplin whats your take?<br /><br /><br /><br />bigdaddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-74753827300452590562014-02-22T16:15:07.666-06:002014-02-22T16:15:07.666-06:00You make a good point. I have often thought that ...You make a good point. I have often thought that the official temperature data were misleading as compared to many of the suburbs. I just checked current temps in your area. Lakeville is 10 degrees and the official temperature in Minneapolis is 14 degrees.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-89676838268238905032014-02-22T16:10:34.429-06:002014-02-22T16:10:34.429-06:00This shows what a heat island the Twin Cities are,...This shows what a heat island the Twin Cities are, at least at the official recording station at the airport. The TC average temperature for this winter is more than 2 degrees warmer than Eau Claire and 4 degrees warmer than St. Cloud. I live down near Lakeville and it's definitely been colder down here most days/nights this winter when compared to the official temperatures at the airport. <br /><br />http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mpx&storyid=100665&source=0Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-41705606370935259282014-02-21T12:38:28.137-06:002014-02-21T12:38:28.137-06:00Novak is the only one who got this right, who actu...Novak is the only one who got this right, who actually put out a forecast showing these snowfall totals and not just showing us what the models were predicting.Joel Fischerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16151003904789150403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-39032922052878797972014-02-21T11:57:46.573-06:002014-02-21T11:57:46.573-06:00Awesome storm.....10 inches in Golden Valley.....I...Awesome storm.....10 inches in Golden Valley.....Im beat and tired after the graveyard shift and sitting in traffic and then shovel/blow for two hours....Im hitting the sack with earplugs because the kiddos are home due to the damn schools cancelling.<br />Though I would like to have abit of fun with numbers...I too tired to find out....but Im sure one of u fellow snowlovers can find out, since the snow has been around since early December....what is the longest stretch of snowcover at MSP and what is the record for snow depth at MSP, since it seems like were approaching 30", its been so cold the snow hasnt melted much nor will according to all long range models.<br />Also btw @Bill and @Duane.......Minnesota 61....Jersey......57......its a back and forth barn burner.....but the spread isnt covered, so keep the white coming!bigdaddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-33623989735357861322014-02-21T11:00:51.578-06:002014-02-21T11:00:51.578-06:00The storm had always been predicted to strengthen ...The storm had always been predicted to strengthen over Wisconsin.<br />To me it looked like a matter of the slow down and the further west displacement of the heavier bands with the initial surge of moisture.<br />Originally 3pm-9pm was supposed to be the height of the storm with 1+"/h rates.<br />MSP at 6 pm had 2.4". 6 hours later at midnight it had 8.4. So exactly 6 inches in 6 hours for a perfect average of 1"/h. <br />One can say that the height of the storm simply moved 3 hrs later: 6pm-midnight instead of 3pm-9pm. <br />So I am not sure I agree with you 100% that the system delivered the totals in a different way than originally forecast, but I certainly agree with you that it slowed down, and as a snow lover myself, I totally agree with you and loved that the dry slot moved over Wisconsin!<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-12124660854302728052014-02-21T10:24:15.639-06:002014-02-21T10:24:15.639-06:00I completely agree with Novak's comment above....I completely agree with Novak's comment above. However, while the snowfall totals did end up validating many of the forecasted projections, I think many of the mets actaully got lucky with their forecasted totals, and here's why. This system did not produce these totals in the way that many of the meteorologists initially suggested. The system was VERY slow to get organized, and the initial surge of moisture streaked across western & centeral MN. If you watch the radar loop from the afternoon, that moisture streaking across MN just continued to intensify as it began to slowly fill in to the east. As it began to fill in to the East over the Twin Cities, we had 2+ hours of a rain/sleet mix before completely changing over to snow by 3:00. This also was not in the forecast, and likely robbed the twin cities of a couple of inches of snow. By 6:00, the western edge of the snow shield was within 100 miles of the twin cities and most locations had 2-5 inches. Then came the part that was simply unbelievable. As the low deepened over Wisconsin, the snow shield just sat, and sat, and sat. There was rotation, but it was moving so little that the snow really began to pile up from 6:00-12:00. I did not see one meteorlogical forecast that showed the system just squat down on top of the metro and not move - as heavy bands just kept developing and dissipating. Because of this system stalling on top of us, we received the snow totals that were in line with the initial forecasts. Had this system not slowed down an acted like the models suggested, I think we would have seen a lot of 3-6 inch totals.<br /><br />I am a snow lover, and I LOVED that the dry slot moved in over Wisconsin and not over us!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-25265566128041207982014-02-21T08:13:32.218-06:002014-02-21T08:13:32.218-06:00Down here in Rochester I believe we got 9-10 inche...Down here in Rochester I believe we got 9-10 inches. Hard to tell With the heavy wet snow followed by the high winds we lost power in many parts of the city. We lost power twice here and the power has flickered on/off a few times this morning and the winds continue to howl. You throw in the snow from last Saturday's and Monday's events and we got well over a foot of snow just these last 6 days! Now here comes another batch of arctic air! Thunder snow, blizzard conditions, huge drifts,and on and on. What a winter!DysonGuyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12351540636292459647noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-11359381207954851952014-02-21T08:08:07.879-06:002014-02-21T08:08:07.879-06:00Actually I think the 18" numbers are more an ...Actually I think the 18" numbers are more an error in the display/understanding of the point forecast. When it stated 4-8 during the day and 6-10 during the evening, normally the higher end during the day would lead towards the lower end during the evening.<br /><br />Looking at the archived zone forecasts, the forecast for Minneapolis was 10-12", which is what occurred:<br />http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/validProds.php?prod=ZFP&node=KMPX<br /><br />And looking at the archive of Winter Storm Warnings, they consistently stated 6-12" all day yesterday.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-4367643701595705932014-02-21T08:02:39.724-06:002014-02-21T08:02:39.724-06:00This storm appeared to track just a bit further we...This storm appeared to track just a bit further west than expected; hence the impressive snow totals in the western metro & points further west like STC, MKT, BRD, etc. People in western WI are likely upset since they did not receive the jackpot like we all had predicted. However, areas near DLH & Ashland, WI really got hammered. So, the storm behaved about as well as we could've expected given the circumstances.<br /><br />What is frustrating is when a storm pulses. Bands of heavy snow develop & dissipate, just like lines of T'Storms. This occurred right over the MSP metro late in the afternoon & fooled quite a few people. This is nearly impossible to predict.<br />NovakWeathernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-90865723730143614612014-02-21T07:49:52.667-06:002014-02-21T07:49:52.667-06:00exactly what I was saying all day yesterday. I ha...exactly what I was saying all day yesterday. I have a good recipe for Crow if anyone wants it....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-85644844302940649592014-02-21T06:35:19.012-06:002014-02-21T06:35:19.012-06:00I'm calling it 10" for MSP International(...I'm calling it 10" for MSP International(officially 9.9").....impressive storm...it had everything from 1/4 mile visibility in heavy snow to 40+ mph winds to thunder and lightning.<br />I do have one negative comment......for all of you who were calling bust on this storm SO EARLY in the game....WTF!....yes storms do bust but my advice is let the storm play out before you open your mouth....now you just look like fools....this storm delivered pretty much on all fronts...except maybe when the numbers were starting to get out of hand(I believe I saw/heard 18" on the top end for parts of the metro).bigdaddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-57788394842825369432014-02-21T04:27:41.393-06:002014-02-21T04:27:41.393-06:00Roughly about 18 hours since the first flakes flew...Roughly about 18 hours since the first flakes flew, its still snowing...albeit a light snow. 9" here in Eden Prairie.<br />Dr. Novak kudos to you, I tip my hat you were the FIRST to see the higher potential of this storm for the metro(MSP) and the FIRST to predict the higher totals(yes others followed suit), your 8-12 band seems spot on with all the snowfall numbers coming in....including MSP International which at 12am reported 8.4(which will not be the final tally since its still snowing).<br />I guess now onto the cold....there are some impressively cold numbers being forecasted for next week, NWS says records could be threatened. Some are dubbing it Polar Vortex lll .big daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-74342020081454825752014-02-20T22:54:23.694-06:002014-02-20T22:54:23.694-06:007.5" so far here in Somerset give or take...i...7.5" so far here in Somerset give or take...it's starting to blow so hard the trees are bent sideways The drifts out here in the country are going to unbelievable....JMigzhttp://facebook.com/josh.migz.5noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-32839034335110562612014-02-20T19:46:42.899-06:002014-02-20T19:46:42.899-06:00Snow is beautiful...caked on everything and snowin...Snow is beautiful...caked on everything and snowing hard in Golden Valley!bigdaddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-59971325216579863872014-02-20T19:44:45.179-06:002014-02-20T19:44:45.179-06:00Also worth noting just how strong the low is, whic...Also worth noting just how strong the low is, which of course is the reason behind the blizzard warnings. Currently 981mb forecasted to be 976 in a few hours. Thats pretty much a category 1 hurricane over Central Wisconsin.CWY2190https://www.blogger.com/profile/07489877587725781507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-43391946886067177342014-02-20T19:33:57.543-06:002014-02-20T19:33:57.543-06:00Looks to me like this storm has slowed down over t...Looks to me like this storm has slowed down over the past hour, with the snow cutoff hardly making any movement eastward as it continues to spin.ABnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-83118252970118375622014-02-20T19:30:31.618-06:002014-02-20T19:30:31.618-06:00it appears the defamation zone has set up right ov...it appears the defamation zone has set up right over the metro and will be there for a few hours. Radar looks good and confirms this. Per Randy Hill tweet...1-2" per hour for a whileAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com