tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post8685349908101940726..comments2024-03-18T20:11:18.451-05:00Comments on The Minnesota Forecaster: Forecaster Grades for February 2011 Monster StormBillhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-49768996310931221122011-02-23T20:22:25.392-06:002011-02-23T20:22:25.392-06:00PD mentions nothing about sunday monday....wcco ha...PD mentions nothing about sunday monday....wcco has it staying south...kare11 is non commital about the track as is kstp...but the caveat is that it could easily swing further north giving us many inches..I love this site BTWJohnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-89072422959128506872011-02-23T17:20:03.651-06:002011-02-23T17:20:03.651-06:00actually i think the gfs outpreformed the euro thi...actually i think the gfs outpreformed the euro this last storm. Euro was always the furtherest south with the nam way north and the gfs right in the middle.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-90771373229652464972011-02-23T16:12:17.090-06:002011-02-23T16:12:17.090-06:00Well Dave D probably relies on the Euro because it...Well Dave D probably relies on the Euro because it's the "Champ" this winter.....rather than the 'Good For Show' GFS.<br /><br />Really, I'm sure KSTP has their own in-house model, plus they also use the globals.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-47827093061711649782011-02-23T15:23:58.469-06:002011-02-23T15:23:58.469-06:00It seems as though PD relies on the GFS while Dahl...It seems as though PD relies on the GFS while Dahl looks at the EC model. Also if you add Tom Skilling as a friend on facebook he does a nice job posting snapshots of both models on fb. Although he deals with chicago weather, a lot of the maps include MN.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-10385925675262973732011-02-23T13:31:26.313-06:002011-02-23T13:31:26.313-06:00Randyinchampin...glad someone else brought that up...Randyinchampin...glad someone else brought that up, I see as well most of the area forcasters are "wataching" a storm on Sunday-Monday that if it slides any further Northwest could leave us in the bullseye. I must say though, the way the GFS looks im suprised their not saying more about it, it looks closer to us than they're making it out to be. I'd defintly start to watch this closly. <br /><br />I might also add, PD has posted on his blog yesturday and the day before almost an inch of liqid precipitation is being printed out from his models around March 6-9. If that turns out to be something, I think Paul should get some credit...a little suprised Dahl hasn't mentioned anything about it, he seems to act quickly with long range things as well...hhmm.Marcnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-56134156509443717902011-02-23T12:41:48.388-06:002011-02-23T12:41:48.388-06:00I am glad to hear that PD often blogs on potential...I am glad to hear that PD often blogs on potentials that usually never come true - I sure hope his long range temperature comments aren't going to come true - staying below freezing through the middle of March - the flood risk is really getting worse and below average cold followed by a sudden onset of spring, as opposed to a slower gradual transition, is not good. Apparently the jet stream is showing signs of sticking around and staying cold. I have heard they are warning people living along metro creeks - Minnehaha, Purgatory, Nine Mile, etc., not just the bigger rivers in the region. My prayers are already with those that are going to endure the stress of this.<br /><br />As for personal (and growing collective) opinion, winter is just getting really, really old. There are far more people than not that simply don't care for winter, period, but this year is ridiculous. "Snow rage" is starting to manifest - people are depressed, irritable, and just plain on edge. We all need spring! Away with the snow, away with the jet stream to the north, and away with the below freezing temperatures. We are done with it, but I'm not so sure it wants to give up - it's looking like it might not be done with us. Boo hoo.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-53244655515567095772011-02-23T08:46:19.520-06:002011-02-23T08:46:19.520-06:00most outlets are now commenting that they are watc...most outlets are now commenting that they are watching the Sun-Monday System. Best explanation this morning that I saw is at KARE..click on weather, than forecast, they have a nice right up on it, and show it in the webcast.randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-13443342310540585292011-02-23T06:07:17.694-06:002011-02-23T06:07:17.694-06:00If I might add.....hope that 2/28 storm trends a b...If I might add.....hope that 2/28 storm trends a bit west/NW. Could give us a good storm.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-41614067975862989382011-02-23T06:00:18.249-06:002011-02-23T06:00:18.249-06:00I'm an avid reader of the AFD's from the W...I'm an avid reader of the AFD's from the WFO's in the region.... MPX, FSD, ARX and sometimes other WFO's during extreme events, interesting reading. <br /><br />"Anonymous said...<br /><br /> I am a federal meteorologist - I can try and answer questions through the day on how the NWS operates if anyone has any.<br /><br /> As for the technical discussion - called the Area Forecast Discussion or AFD - they are updated at least eight times daily: four to discuss the overall forecast (4AM, 10AM, 4PM, 10PM, plus or minus an hour); four to discuss the aviation forecast for MSP and other nearby airports (6AM, 12PM, 6PM, 12AM). Sometimes the AFD is updated more frequently if there are any other changes that want to be communicated.<br /><br /> -P"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-38022890635269615212011-02-22T16:15:22.252-06:002011-02-22T16:15:22.252-06:00Re: the KARE11 weather treatment... We're hopi...Re: the KARE11 weather treatment... We're hoping to line up a visit with Sven Sundgaard to get a better understanding of their forecasting philosophy.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-80977868140109386502011-02-22T13:27:15.651-06:002011-02-22T13:27:15.651-06:00@federal meteorologist Thanks for your valued inpu...@federal meteorologist Thanks for your valued input! Feel free to email us at mnforecaster@gmail.com in the future if you have improvement suggestions.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-42913362941577582642011-02-22T13:20:49.034-06:002011-02-22T13:20:49.034-06:00@Big Daddy, Our self-imposed deadline didn't a...@Big Daddy, Our self-imposed deadline didn't allow enough time to grade the NWS. We'll work on it.<br />@Annonymous, Follow this link for the cumulative grades: http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/p/report-cards-to-date.html. Note that it's not fully up to date.<br /><br />Thanks for the feedback, all!Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-8598895419699251642011-02-22T13:05:39.991-06:002011-02-22T13:05:39.991-06:00I agree with the KARE grade. I watch, and like the...I agree with the KARE grade. I watch, and like the news portion for their broadcast. I don't like how they conduct their weather segment. I find myself going to other outlets to find the detailed information I want.<br /><br />I do agree with Paul D's grade. I think it was fair considering he was monitoring the storm daily well before others were mentioning it. He shouldn't be dinged that much for relaying what the models were saying at that given time. And for that matter he wasn't trying to be an alarmist.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-52432407002802388182011-02-22T09:29:58.342-06:002011-02-22T09:29:58.342-06:00I am a federal meteorologist - I can try and answe...I am a federal meteorologist - I can try and answer questions through the day on how the NWS operates if anyone has any.<br /><br />As for the technical discussion - called the Area Forecast Discussion or AFD - they are updated at least eight times daily: four to discuss the overall forecast (4AM, 10AM, 4PM, 10PM, plus or minus an hour); four to discuss the aviation forecast for MSP and other nearby airports (6AM, 12PM, 6PM, 12AM). Sometimes the AFD is updated more frequently if there are any other changes that want to be communicated.<br /><br />-PAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-59389974524348763542011-02-22T07:34:14.753-06:002011-02-22T07:34:14.753-06:00I totally agree with your comments about KARE. It&...I totally agree with your comments about KARE. It's so frustrating to listen to their forecasts. I'm a loyal Paul Douglas reader because I do enjoy actually looking at the various models, which he posts on his blog for us to see.<br /><br />Thanks for doing this Bill.. it's pretty awesome!Jeff Gassmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06069959796187996286noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-65082745967885193842011-02-22T07:20:17.880-06:002011-02-22T07:20:17.880-06:00Wow, if Paul Douglas gets a B-, I want you to be m...Wow, if Paul Douglas gets a B-, I want you to be my instructer for every class I ever take for the rest of my life!!! Maybe you can do my performance reviews at work too? Called off the storm completely, said a foot looks doubtful, said heaviest go to the north and was wrong, wrong, and wrong in a HUGE way and he gets a passing grade? Are you two related or something?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-43417868360296046992011-02-22T05:53:06.858-06:002011-02-22T05:53:06.858-06:00Bill, where's the running grade totals with a...Bill, where's the running grade totals with average grades?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-48106535966172469892011-02-22T01:51:52.706-06:002011-02-22T01:51:52.706-06:00Bill where is your analysis of the NWS?Bill where is your analysis of the NWS?big daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-44645738380026866562011-02-22T00:30:48.747-06:002011-02-22T00:30:48.747-06:00Bill, great analysis. I personally don't have...Bill, great analysis. I personally don't have as much time as I would like to analyze all the media outlets, so this is a great summation. Before finding your blog (last week) I used the NWS website for the bulk of my weather tracking. Since then I am now following your blog, MPR and Paul Douglas.<br />Speaking of the NWS, I thought they did a fairly good job. They do give some technical insight with their "forecast discussion" which I wish they updated more frequently. Thanks for keeping me up late at night montioring all of this!MN WeatherFanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01344670267965934110noreply@blogger.com