tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post9009254614072061968..comments2024-03-26T10:45:14.207-05:00Comments on The Minnesota Forecaster: Early March Warmup In the Cards? Depends.....Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comBlogger49125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-74403283536811786012012-03-08T20:39:15.481-06:002012-03-08T20:39:15.481-06:00watching a great hockey game but I thought I would...watching a great hockey game but I thought I would put this together while I'm watching it.<br /><br />How many records will fall next week??? The temps and year of occurrence are off the Minnesota Climatology Working Group site. Here are my thoughts on the percentages that the highs will fall.<br /><br />Day/Date High Temps/ Year Chances that record will fall<br /><br />Sa/10th 59/1878 70%<br /><br />Su/11th 61/1902 70%<br /><br />Mon/12th 69/1990 0% rain<br /><br />Tu/13th 66/2007 40%<br /><br />We/14th 64/2010 70%<br /><br />Th/15th 69/1927 20%<br /><br />Fr/16th 71/1930 50%***<br /><br />*** at this time the GFS shows just under 60 whereas the ECMWF shows 75+randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-68240573204126872432012-03-08T16:48:25.300-06:002012-03-08T16:48:25.300-06:00Isn't this just appropriate for the '11/&#...Isn't this just appropriate for the '11/'12 winter season? Any other year, that storm pulling out of the SW on Sunday would dump heavy snow over MN. This year, no question, liquid.<br /><br />Where in the **** is the Arctic air?NovakWeathernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-37762647045844045892012-03-08T02:16:08.093-06:002012-03-08T02:16:08.093-06:00I believe it hit 60 on Tuesday. I'm just as su...I believe it hit 60 on Tuesday. I'm just as surprised as you. <br /><br />Wunderground BestFirecast was indeed the best forecast.MN WeatherFanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01344670267965934110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-85622678039263149622012-03-07T20:43:02.585-06:002012-03-07T20:43:02.585-06:00what happens after the warm up of course is up in ...what happens after the warm up of course is up in the air, but looking at those 850mb temps to the nw of us I wonder. Will they drop down??? seems likely to me, but who knows. <br /><br />http://i960.photobucket.com/albums/ae84/arpetersonembaqcom/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240gif037.gifrandyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-80522984344602090762012-03-07T19:50:03.792-06:002012-03-07T19:50:03.792-06:00I remember a 9.7-inch storm on April 29-30, 1984.....I remember a 9.7-inch storm on April 29-30, 1984.... not saying that's going to happen but I'd bet the house money that we get at least 3 more inches of snow this year.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-29258772393226019522012-03-07T19:45:00.180-06:002012-03-07T19:45:00.180-06:00@Bill the writing is on the wall,winter and snow i...@Bill the writing is on the wall,winter and snow is over,when DD is commenting about severe storms and not looking into his crystal ball and saying something with the mention of snow its a pretty done deal.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-67303636592285163632012-03-07T18:31:49.651-06:002012-03-07T18:31:49.651-06:00@Novak: I've been watching that, but what wil...@Novak: I've been watching that, but what will happen when the other shoe drops in. Both the GFS and ECMWF bring substantial cape values over our area (for this time of year). This is the last paragraph off the NWS AFD " IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW...A VERY WARM AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW<br />WILL ENVELOP THE REGION. HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WERE A<br />50/50 BLEND OF ALLBLEND AND BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF. THIS RAISED<br />HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER<br />60S ON WEDNESDAY. ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE OUR REAL THUNDERSTORMS<br />FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE<br />DAKOTAS."<br /><br />and this from Dave Dahl's Blog " There's even a slight chance that a few of the storms late Friday could become strong or possibly even severe. It's very early to be talking about severe weather, but with the way the season has gone so far to our south, it's probably not too far off.randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-71706087639275598642012-03-07T13:24:30.298-06:002012-03-07T13:24:30.298-06:00Euro Temperature anomalies are positively through ...Euro Temperature anomalies are positively through the roof next week. It shows 25+ avg. temps stretching from the Upper Midwest north the James Bay and much of eastern Canada for almost all of next week. This is too obvious to ignore.<br /><br />I wouldn't be surprised if much of the Upper Midwest including MN meet or exceed record highs starting this weekend through next weekend. That would be nearly a 7 day stretch of 20+ degrees above avg. highs. Sure, we may have a short bump in the road on SUN or MON, but this is absurd.NovakWeathernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-33523496835834891782012-03-07T13:21:36.763-06:002012-03-07T13:21:36.763-06:00absolutely...
i think it was the 2007-08 winter (o...absolutely...<br />i think it was the 2007-08 winter (or 08-09) when we had 6+ inches of snow the last day of March, following a day with highs in the low 60s.<br />but...given the pattern this winter, I'd say it is pretty unlikelyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-57973076801120729442012-03-07T12:01:26.702-06:002012-03-07T12:01:26.702-06:00@Anonymous That's a good idea. Just need to fi...@Anonymous That's a good idea. Just need to find the time to go through the info and prepare such a wrap up.<br /><br />And as for winter being over, I'm still not convinced we won't get some snow later in March. People sometimes focus too much on the short-term.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-28139173526729939642012-03-07T11:57:11.684-06:002012-03-07T11:57:11.684-06:00WInter is clearly over (although how can something...WInter is clearly over (although how can something that never really started be over?)<br /><br />Bill, I would suggest a new post with a recap of all failed forecasts for thois winter, from the ridicolus 75 inches by Dave Dahl to the unlikely boldness by Ian Leonard in predicting far below average temps for Jan and Feb.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-62947234161455569072012-03-07T06:30:36.287-06:002012-03-07T06:30:36.287-06:0063 in Red Wing and Rochester, so here in Lake City...63 in Red Wing and Rochester, so here in Lake City it was somewhere in there as well. Time to think about what to plant in the garden.Dennisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-78830321010968381732012-03-06T09:51:00.953-06:002012-03-06T09:51:00.953-06:00It's hard to believe it can get reach 60 today...It's hard to believe it can get reach 60 today with the snow on the ground but I suppose stranger things have happened. While I just have 2-3 inches of snow in my yard, it's very water-heavy and I can't see it all melting today. But, we'll see.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-15264740528256667372012-03-06T08:41:13.271-06:002012-03-06T08:41:13.271-06:0060° today??? underground best forecast says 61, Eu...60° today??? underground best forecast says 61, Euro has been steady for days now on that, quickly cooling by the time you get to the north metro. We could see a 10-12° difference.randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-49970739464661785612012-03-05T19:16:19.009-06:002012-03-05T19:16:19.009-06:00R.I.P. WINTER OF 2011-2012!!!!!R.I.P. WINTER OF 2011-2012!!!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-40787651110317245932012-03-05T18:30:05.818-06:002012-03-05T18:30:05.818-06:00Mercifully this boring winter is coming to an end,...Mercifully this boring winter is coming to an end,50's and 60's,showers and thunderstorms all over the maps the next 2 weeks,sound the spring alarm and lay this winter to rest.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-66401410103580113682012-03-04T23:22:37.775-06:002012-03-04T23:22:37.775-06:00I should clarify on my previous post that I counte...I should clarify on my previous post that I counted days from Dec 1 through Feb 29...aka meteorological winter.Duanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10787345530045701289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-78199547905505081252012-03-04T22:23:18.130-06:002012-03-04T22:23:18.130-06:00@MW yes there is a 500mb cut off low wandering ar...@MW yes there is a 500mb cut off low wandering around next weekend, the GFS takes it south and and then lifts it out to the NE, the Euro up around the Dakotas and than kicks it out NE over MN. We will just have to wait to see where it goes and how the surface will react to it. Right now it's not impressive at all.randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-21701584018992542042012-03-04T20:36:50.788-06:002012-03-04T20:36:50.788-06:00The most recent runs of the Euro have come around ...The most recent runs of the Euro have come around to the GFS's thinking of not digging the east coast trough nearly as much...which should mean we don't see as much of a push of colder air come the end of the week. Overall long range still looks warm with more rain than snow chances in there. That low will get cut off from the longwave trough that will will be coming across the area on Wednesday/Thursday. Where it goes from there is still too far out to be determined. It is pretty much just going to be waiting until another trough comes in and scoops it up. Until then, things look to stay fairly quiet for this neck of the woods. This week will certainly take a good chunk of whatever little snow pack we have. @mnmom2four, I took a peak at the airports data for highs and lows at MSP, and I counted 32 days that had sub freezing highs. Days that saw 32 for a high I did not count...only days of 31 and lower. I hope that helps.Duanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10787345530045701289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-88639154991428746512012-03-04T18:45:32.049-06:002012-03-04T18:45:32.049-06:00I have a questions for all you weather fact expert...I have a questions for all you weather fact experts.... How many 24 periods have had this winter below freezing? My best guess is about 5-6 at the most. It sure hasn't seemed like many at all.<br />Thanks--mnmom2fournoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-50906327381884724722012-03-04T15:59:45.474-06:002012-03-04T15:59:45.474-06:00@Randyinchamplin what is the NWS talking about for...@Randyinchamplin what is the NWS talking about for Sunday in their latest discussion,talking about a cutoff low coming up from the southwest,I believe that was what bemaki was alluding to.MWnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-40538797475737200022012-03-04T13:52:17.087-06:002012-03-04T13:52:17.087-06:00Thanks @Duane and @Randyinchamplin...I guess its t...Thanks @Duane and @Randyinchamplin...I guess its time to flush the snowblower of gas and start tuning up the lawnmower....what a sad winter(22 inches)worst since I moved here in 1996.big daddynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-65869883014588773152012-03-04T12:56:04.208-06:002012-03-04T12:56:04.208-06:00@ Duane, nice graphic on the the "lake swirl&...@ Duane, nice graphic on the the "lake swirl" snows.<br /><br />@ Big Daddy, Ive been looking at some of the teleconections out there and I really don't see much of a chance of a "plowable event" in our future, if you want the details, I will be glad to share my interpretation of what I think will happen.randyinchamplinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-80584739660200045912012-03-04T12:06:15.824-06:002012-03-04T12:06:15.824-06:00My gut is telling me we are done with the major wi...My gut is telling me we are done with the major winter storms (6+ inches) in southern MN (including the metro) and western WI. However, I know how crazy things can change around here with the changing of the seasons...but I personally think any of the events we get down here will be rain/thunder storms instead of snow. It honestly wouldn't shock me to see our first severe storms come early April, but that is more of a gut feeling. I have no evidence to back that one up.Duanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10787345530045701289noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-58640367632000805052012-03-04T12:05:44.114-06:002012-03-04T12:05:44.114-06:00Thanks bemaki.....hopefully the warm stays away an...Thanks bemaki.....hopefully the warm stays away and we still get a dumping.......weather.com now showing snow for Wednesday,trend???big daddynoreply@blogger.com