tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34836147678226938752024-03-18T20:11:19.402-05:00The Minnesota ForecasterWho's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.comBlogger397125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-23832765188386582152024-03-18T15:16:00.004-05:002024-03-18T15:16:30.562-05:00Don't Look Now But....<p>Is it ("it" being winter) better late than never? It's looking like snow fortunes are about to change. Are you happy about this or do you just want to get on with spring? What say you?</p>Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-15216334112668920382024-01-10T22:01:00.003-06:002024-01-10T22:01:38.873-06:00Is it Time?<p>Wow, nearly half the "winter" is gone since the last post. Seems there's some talk that a late-week storm could materialize into something interesting. What are your thoughts?</p><p>Meanwhile, if you're wondering where the Minnesota snow has been, look to the far southwest. This has been the landscape for the last week in the foothills outside Albuquerque, New Mexico. We're trying to send it Minnesota's way.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiifVhyuhMHM1BNQis7u85VROgm7gX24cyo4HaAYXSM0_uOYGRmtNojpd9YmNJ75lNVKRuqM539UBzwAM5sxHy75rrSFW5E3oWFAL46L50mEGRldoVJ_BlYQLJZn2Q3l6CnGeD2Ef8bHRxbVCeA5uad9hcXhshBL-PfSjH0M6E67GGp-QhBv2TRgh80RFI/s4032/IMG_1862.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="4032" data-original-width="3024" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiifVhyuhMHM1BNQis7u85VROgm7gX24cyo4HaAYXSM0_uOYGRmtNojpd9YmNJ75lNVKRuqM539UBzwAM5sxHy75rrSFW5E3oWFAL46L50mEGRldoVJ_BlYQLJZn2Q3l6CnGeD2Ef8bHRxbVCeA5uad9hcXhshBL-PfSjH0M6E67GGp-QhBv2TRgh80RFI/s320/IMG_1862.jpeg" width="240" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p>Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com107tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-87688720015275841702023-11-28T13:27:00.002-06:002023-11-28T13:27:40.184-06:00The Hunt for Snow<p>As we near December, and with temps closer to what one would expect for the season, the hunt for significant snow is on. When might that happen?</p>Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com64tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-80853523749245421382023-10-26T16:55:00.003-05:002023-10-26T16:55:42.198-05:00First snow of 23-24 season?<p>Hope everyone had a great spring and summer! </p><p>Looks like the first flakes are in the forecast, so its time to fire up the blog again. The national weather service says we may see a flurry Saturday with other scattered chances as we fall into a cool pattern from the weekend to later next week.</p><p style="text-align: left;">Temper the expectations though as the NWS goes on to say: “<span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto;">bottom line, first snowfall for southern Minnesota<br /></span>is looking likely, but little to no accumulation expected.”</p><p>Even if this is just a few flurries, it seemed like a good chance to let people check in after the many months away. Welcome back and hopefully we have a snowy winter ahead!</p>Davehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07641837835880841251noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-21873958349504501762023-04-14T19:47:00.004-05:002023-04-14T19:47:38.663-05:00Snow After 80s?<p> A shocking downturn in the summer-like warmth is coming. Will it bring any late, late-season snow?</p>Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com44tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-5185532471488685852023-03-29T09:30:00.002-05:002023-03-29T09:30:34.733-05:00Late Week Slop to Add to Snow Tally?<p> In a winter that keeps giving, more white gold may fall from the sky late this week. Your thoughts?</p>Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com132tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-27314060302785319912023-03-12T21:46:00.003-05:002023-03-12T21:46:45.605-05:00Late-week storm to help MSP move up the snowfall ranks?<p>As one commenter aptly put it, the chase to land a new snowfall record at MSP is akin to a football team trailing by 10 late in the fourth quarter (and there are no XFL rules). The team would appear to need a touchdown vs. a few field goals. Might a late-week storm put the record more within reach — or possibly take the prize? We shall see....</p>Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com151tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-61162441557651249802023-03-06T13:15:00.003-06:002023-03-06T13:20:24.790-06:00Snow Record Chase Continuing Later This Week?<p>The bounty of the season may continue — in some abundance — later this week. Track it here.</p>Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com95tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-4135805743244171172023-03-04T14:05:00.002-06:002023-03-04T14:05:25.200-06:00Snow to the North<p> There is a decent system setting up to the north that the NWS gives a 20% chance of impacting the metro. </p><p><br /></p><p>There are no watches yet anywhere near the metro but it seemed worth a thread.</p><p><br /></p><p>Enjoy!</p><p><br /></p>Davehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07641837835880841251noreply@blogger.com19tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-47172886099604467542023-02-23T11:16:00.003-06:002023-02-23T14:39:14.458-06:00Snowstorm Debrief<p>The much-anticipated snowstorm is ending. With all the twists and turns, how do you think forecasters did? And what other thoughts do you have about the storm?</p><p>It’s a weird feeling to be a former Minnesotan/snow lover closely watching a storm take place in such a familiar place that’s 1,574 miles away (as the southwestern jetstream flies) from where I live in Albuquerque, New Mexico (where the storm created winds gusting to 63 mph, visibility down to one mile in dust and snow squalls that just make for a pretty picture).</p><p>Here are some random thoughts and observations:</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Except for actually shoveling snow and constantly dabbing at a runny nose, it’s amazing how much you can experience a snowstorm virtually — thanks to news stories, pictures from friends, traffic cameras, etc.</li><li>As one commenter suggested, it seems to make more sense to see this storm as two separate storms given the amount of time between. If one views it that way, it seems that there was a middling storm (4”) followed by clean-up, followed by a legitimately heavy, but not blockbuster, snow.</li><li>Taken literally, the forecasts seemed generally quite accurate — except for the “heavy at times wording.” From my review of MSP observations, there was never an official report of “heavy snow.” However, I sensed that the net impact didn’t quite measure up to the message that was communicated by the NWS.</li><li>Reports from rural areas notwithstanding, the storm didn’t seem to be as paralyzing as one might expect for the total accumulation (again why it seems more appropriate to see this as two storms) nor truly historical.</li><li>As one who lived through the Halloween blizzard, I was secretly hoping that this didn’t end up as a record setter. (I want to keep the glory.)</li><li>Patience is always a virtue, but especially so when waiting to see if a snowstorm fully flowers.</li><li>Model data should be consumed with a pound of Morton salt.</li></ul><p></p><p>But all in all, it was a good show!</p>Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com57tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-85307360334323643942023-02-17T19:44:00.003-06:002023-02-17T19:44:28.612-06:00All Eyes on Next Week<p>Model consensus is amazingly high for large winter system that could strike midweek. Will it materialize as forecast?</p>Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com241tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-85440690575608631612023-02-11T17:37:00.003-06:002023-02-11T17:37:25.664-06:00Rain and Snow later this week<p>NWS forecasts a couple of systems moving through beginning Valentine’s day and bringing some mixture of snow and rain, with the chance for some accumulations.</p><p>Should be one to keep us guessing!</p>Davehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07641837835880841251noreply@blogger.com62tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-72654122100002186492023-01-16T08:48:00.001-06:002023-01-16T08:48:20.219-06:00Increasing chances for snow Wednesday Evening to Thursday<p>Nothing like a Viking playoff loss and a healthy shot of rain to kick off January!</p><p>Hopefully we can turn around this bad luck with a snow system that is aiming for Southern MN but may creep up to toss a few inches on the metro. </p><p>So will we get that northern shift or watch it pass below the metro?</p>Davehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07641837835880841251noreply@blogger.com49tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-44619538652139412252023-01-07T16:42:00.003-06:002023-01-07T16:42:15.331-06:00Thread for a quiet period<p>Thanks to everyone who joined the discussion leading up to the last storm. It’s been a fun winter of overachieving systems and I have enjoyed reading your commentary.</p><p>It looks like nothing is on tap over the next week or so, but I wanted to have a new thread up for anyone to discuss any potential upcoming systems. </p><p>I will start a new thread once we see a storm worth discussing!</p>Davehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07641837835880841251noreply@blogger.com19tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-38658629908338966712022-12-29T04:36:00.003-06:002022-12-29T04:36:24.644-06:00A storm to kick off 2023 - but will it be rain or snow?<p>NWS says with 99% confidence that a storm will bring significant moisture early next week. However, there will be the classic “rain/snow” line that could spell wildly different results depending on where that axis lands. </p><p>Will everyone north of Iowa see snow? Or will the metro receive liquid precipitation? </p><p>Time to prognosticate!</p>Davehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07641837835880841251noreply@blogger.com125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-89083508991792038752022-12-23T22:23:00.000-06:002022-12-23T22:23:51.177-06:00More Snow Before Warmth?<p>Before the bitter siege ends, there may be one more shot at measurable snow on Christmas night before the weather pattern warms and perhaps yields ... wait for it ... liquid.</p>Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-54145902066278876412022-12-18T11:00:00.004-06:002022-12-18T11:01:51.714-06:00A snowy lead up to Christmas?<p>After another storm that beat at least my own expectations, and ensuing cold, the metro looks to be on track for a white Christmas. </p><p>Now the question is - is more in store in the next week?</p><p>From the 12/18 AM NWS forecast discussion summarizing the current state of mid-week models:<br /></p><pre class="glossaryProduct">Suffice it to say that great uncertainty remains </pre><pre class="glossaryProduct">on the precipitation potential from midweek on.</pre><pre class="glossaryProduct"><a href="https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MPX&issuedby=MPX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1" target="_blank">Full Discussion from NWS</a> </pre><pre class="glossaryProduct"> </pre><div class="glossaryProduct" style="text-align: left;">What are your thoughts? </div><div class="glossaryProduct" style="text-align: left;"> </div><div class="glossaryProduct" style="text-align: left;"> </div><div class="glossaryProduct" style="text-align: left;">[Programming note - I will be traveling from 12/20 to 12/31. Bill has kindly agreed to keep an eye on the site and post a new thread if needed.] </div>Davehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07641837835880841251noreply@blogger.com85tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-52110902777733030792022-12-07T16:31:00.009-06:002022-12-14T16:46:02.486-06:00Snow chances Thursday into Friday, and early next week<p>NWS has the southern metro and much of southern Minnesota in the area for accumulating snow Thursday night into Friday.</p><p>Looking ahead, the long range forecast discussion talks of a system from Monday to Wednesday with a lot of uncertainty.</p><p><br /></p><p>From NWS:</p><div class="glossaryProduct" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-size: 20px; text-align: left;">at this point it looks like
mainly snow to start later on Monday, with a transition to mixed
precipitation during the day on Tuesday from south to north. Tuesday
night as the column cools it looks like the forecast area will
transition back to snow and remain mainly snow on Wednesday. How much
snow could we potentially get? That will depend on the track of the
<a href="https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=cyclone" style="background-color: white; font-weight: bold;">cyclone</a>. </div>Davehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07641837835880841251noreply@blogger.com64tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-43969662203785636212022-11-30T10:10:00.001-06:002022-11-30T10:10:12.524-06:00Snow train to roll again?<p>After Tuesday's snow that made the Twin Cities the bullseye, it seems that more snow may be in the offing in a few days. Your thoughts?</p>Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-54908061848576272532022-11-28T09:09:00.003-06:002022-11-28T09:09:33.326-06:00Tuesday Snow?<p>The smoke signals are a little hard to read, but it appears that snow, potentially significant, is on the way for Tuesday.</p>Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com21tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-3277625344384818482022-11-13T20:41:00.002-06:002022-11-13T20:41:38.957-06:00First Real Snow of the Season?<p> What's more exiting: the Vikings win in Buffalo or this week's expected snow? There's probably more anticipation over the snow. What are your thoughts on what this suddenly cold/maybe snowy week will bring?</p>Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02905775514055182861noreply@blogger.com22tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-12273982031502791172022-03-28T17:09:00.004-05:002022-03-28T17:09:18.845-05:00Mid-week Storm<p> I was on vacation and haven’t been monitoring the weather but I received a couple of notes requesting a new thread. </p><p>“<span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.25); -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; caret-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; word-spacing: 1px;"> Some of us are hoping you will start a new thread in anticipation of a blast of snow that somebody may get around here....”</span></p><p><br /></p><p>So have at it!</p>Davehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07641837835880841251noreply@blogger.com35tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-818410064267014682022-02-27T08:52:00.002-06:002022-02-27T08:52:35.661-06:00Potential Storm Friday into Saturday<div>I have not had the chance to read up much on this, but the NWS says we could see a decent storm with some type of wintry precipitation. </div><div><br /></div><div><br />They provide this warning in the forecast discussion:</div><div><br />“Model consistency has improved markedly since yesterday, with the deterministic runs all exhibiting similar solutions. Being 5-6 days out, details are still very likely going to change leading up to it”</div><div><br /></div><div>Will March deliver?</div>Davehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07641837835880841251noreply@blogger.com69tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-16086108362236437332022-02-17T06:44:00.005-06:002022-02-17T06:44:39.129-06:00Some weather this weekend into next week<p> From the National Weather Service - let’s see what happens the next few days!</p><p><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: white; font-family: Oxygen, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">Brief, but heavy, snow showers are possible Friday along with gusty winds. Confidence is increasing in accumulating snow early next week.</span></p><p><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: white; font-family: Oxygen, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></p>Davehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07641837835880841251noreply@blogger.com90tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3483614767822693875.post-70574300834923668882022-01-21T17:41:00.003-06:002022-01-21T17:41:20.227-06:00Multiple Rounds of Snow<p>Sorry for getting this up late, I am still trying to get the hang of when to begin a new thread. </p><p><br /></p><p>I will probably start up a new “in between” thread after a storm concludes just so there is a new place to start looking ahead.</p><p><br /></p><p>That said, we have a few chances for snow in the coming days, and the level of snow I am currently seeing in St Paul made me think I should have started a thread a couple days back!</p>Davehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07641837835880841251noreply@blogger.com31