Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?
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Tuesday, March 10, 2026
Will Mid-March Deliver? (Plus time for a fresh thread)
Wow, it's been two months since the weather seemed worth of a post. Not sure it's worthy now, but it might be — and a change of scenery is always good. With that, let's look at mid-March snow prospects.
Thanks for the new thread, Bill. "Who knows?" I'd love a big snowstorm on my birthday weekend, but I repeat: "Who knows?" Mr. Novak has put out a map on his FB page that shows the MSP area on the northern fringe of the 'bullseye' for potential snowiness, but ???? Time will tell as I always say. If PWL could dance up a 'storm' literally...... maybe we will get walloped. I can't wait to see the discussion here.
After looking over the latest 00Z data I fulling expect WINTER STORM WATCHES issued this morning for the weekend system. I know we’re weather enthusiasts and it’s hard to taper the expectations cuz of disappointing storms from our past, all I can say is the storm on it’s current projections has the potential to deliver the biggest snowfall for MSP in over 3 years!! Stay tuned
Yes! Even NOAA, which is usually way behind Mr. Novak, has a chance of '5-9" for the metro this Saturday night???? And 55 mph winds possible tonight (no 'calm' before stormy weather approaches, eh?)..... I hope we do get our 'biggest snowstorm in three years' as anonymous says above. Keep us posted, Bigdaddy. I still look at the blog list on the right and see how some years there were so many discussions/active weather events..... and look at the trend the past several years of not much weather to talk about/not as much snow to enjoy. BRING IT, Old Man Winter/Mother Nature.
Need to apologize, I did jump the gun a bit to quickly on the call for Winter Storm Watches, since this isn’t suppose to begin until Saturday evening the 48hr threshold was not met yet which would mean by this afternoon we should see Watches posted. Some of this morning’s 06z models showing still impressive snowfall amounts in the 12-18+ category. Time will tell!
Correctly called, Bigdaddy. As Travis notes above, on top of our high wind warning, we now have the winter storm watch. If this monster comes to be....... woo hoo amazing. Stay safe with the incoming winds. Hoping our power grids hold tonight/tomorrow morning.
Okay, even NWS is pushing out insane totals in the metro. Is this really true or are they hallucinating? I can't wait to see what all of you who study the models see.
Some strong wording from the NWS:(for those who didn’t see it)
Guidance has continued to increase both the areal footprint of snowfall and also amounts as QPF continues to climb as guidance tries to resolve separate moisture sources from the Pac NW and Gulf, with overall QPF amounts exceeding 1.25-1.5`` for much of the area. There will be a gradient of precipitation and therefore snowfall with lower amounts in central Minnesota increasing for southern Minnesota, with the overall highest amounts generally expected from southern Minnesota through northern Wisconsin and into the UP. Snow ratios are going to be a bit tricky with this event, as we know locally that systems containing this much moisture often struggle to produce snow ratios exceeding 10 to 1, but even with this factored in there will be a large area from southern MN through western WI of amounts in excess of 12-18`` with 20``+ amounts possible for mainly eastern MN and western WI. Winds will be increasing especially towards the later part of Sunday which could slightly diminish snow amounts, however this seems most likely for southwest to southern Minnesota where the overall strongest gusts of around 30-35mph are expected. No matter which suite of guidance you try to look at the ensemble percentiles and probabilities are absurd with chances of 6+ inches (10:1 snow ratio) at 90-100% across most of the area and 12+ of 70-80% over eastern Minnesota into western WI.
Given the overall forecast trend of increasing QPF and snow amounts and the overall powerful dynamics of the approaching system, we have expanded the Winter Storm Watch to the rest of the MPX CWA with the only real headline question being if we will end up needing Blizzard Warnings for a period of time Sunday with Winter Storm Warnings all but a certainty at this point. The bottom line no matter what headline ends up being issued is that travel will be next to impossible on Sunday as snow continues to pile up, with our recommendation being to avoid travel within the region if at all possible during this window. Recovery efforts may be slow due to the amount of snow, which could bleed into Monday morning and beyond as temperatures will not reach above freezing again until Wednesday at the earliest. Please consider altering travel plans and staying off the roads on Sunday if at all possible and riding out the storm.
Chance at 20”+…..might as well make a run at the Halloween Blizzard at this point and reset the record books!!
I agree, Bigdaddy! I was reading the NWS discussion for Rochester, which said historic snow amounts are a real possibility from the Twin Cities to Rochester. They also mentioned winds could gust to 50 mph on Sunday. The NWS is predicting 9-13 inches for Saturday night and 8-12 inches for Sunday here in Plymouth. We picked up 21 inches during the Tax Day Blizzard here in April 2018. That is the most snow I have ever seen from a storm in MN. I have lived here since the summer of 1992, so I regretfully missed out on the '91 Halloween blizzard. Fingers crossed for a big one and what a Happy Birthday that would be for WeatherGeek!
I lived through the 1991 storm so there are stories to tell, and it would be epic to get a 24-hour total that’s bigger. The 1991 storm was a multi-day event. My eyes are popping at the NWS totals that could go past 2 feet if it holds together. That’s why it’s so hard to believe but hey, it’s been 35 years since that storm in ‘91. Maybe we can call this the St Paddy’s day storm a couple of days early ha. Dance PWL so that this birthday is one to remember!!!
This is so fun and unbelievable! Even on the low ends, this storm will bring us a foot plus. Even that is huge! I give credit to my dancing. I have been doing the “Bring it” dance all week. I’m tired, now in shape, and am still dancing.
I want to be so happy and excited, but I dread a 'bust' or 'gradient' that affects it all........... Mr. Novak still hasn't posted on FB and he's my 'guru/GOAT' for this stuff.......... Hoping, hoping, hoping.......
You're reading my mind, WeatherGeek. I so want to be really excited about this storm, but far too many times we have had the rug pulled out from under us here in the metro at the last minute. I am very cautiously optimistic at this point. While I have my fingers crossed this storm delivers (even though it is at the end of the season and there is absolutely no existing snowpack) my real prayer is to experience a real old fashion MN winter again where there is in fact a hefty snowpack this time of year. I am not confident that will ever happen, but that is my sincere hope!
Storm appears to be shifting south. Still expecting 10 inches or so in the metro, but the hopes of an historic snowfall in the metro appears to be waning.
NWS update @ 10:31AM today: "[H]eavy snow with a broad area of 10 to 16 inches likely, and a narrow swath of 15 to 20 inches. Totals across portions of western and central Wisconsin could approach 2 feet. The heaviest snow will fall Saturday evening and overnight, with rates of 2 inches per hour possible. Winds will start out of the northeast at 20 to 30 mph."
Okay, PWL. Keep the updates coming. I still wonder why Mr. Novak is quiet on his FB page. He is obviously studying all the models a lot. I'm hoping he does a video over there later today or tonight. Take care and keep dancing, please.
There’s a reason Novak is absolutely quiet on all the platforms, being almost 24 hours out from the storm and he hasn’t made any videos or even put out a forecast map of his own. Also most models like the HRRR NAM EURO have moved the heavy snow north of MSP. Goodbye anything historical and if the north trend continues MSP be lucky to get 6”.
Jon with his "brilliant" take without acknowledging the fact that the HRRR and NAM models have without a doubt with every storm this year have had a 100+ mile northern bias until 12ish hours out from the storm.
While I can see that the NAM and HRRR have trended a notch north, the 12z EURO has not budged - the bulls eye of Minnesota is right over the Cities. And that is the most recent EURO.
Novak will post soon. This is a significant forecast and I’m sure he’s looking at all the data which is still more than 24 hours away!
There's some good info here on the MPR blog. Looks like 8-24." Rooting for you guys! https://www.mprnews.org/story/2026/03/13/sunday-snow-blitz-wide-snowfall-range-likely-across-minnesota-dangerous-travel-weather-sunday
Still nothing from Novak. He is maintaining radio silence. WCCO just said the storm is shifting south, so 18+ in Rochester and close to two feet in central and eastern WI. He showed 10-14 for the metro.
Everyone commenting on Novak's silence...it could simply be that he's focusing on providing updates to his paying clients today. I don't think this is the first time he's gone quiet before a storm.
Very true, so very true. He already put out his map the other day of probable 'bullseye' and surrounding areas, and now that I know the storm is still forming out west, he is probably waiting/watching/studying/etcetera. He actually messaged me when I said I'd sent some more friends his way on FB and said after I told him that for me he is the GOAT of winter weather forecasting: "Much appreciated. Not easy with a storm like this." So I'm calling it quits early tonight after being up since 3 with those howling winds, and tomorrow I will see what all the posts say. Have a good night everybody.
Novak has spoken and it’s not good, his messaging doesn’t sound enthusiastic at all: “ Still lots of questions & worries on snow gradients & exact storm track, but I like how this latest 00z NAM3k looks. There is going to be some ICE & DRY air in southern MN. Meanwhile, people will be upset because this storm will NOT unfold as expected. Stay tuned.”
Those aren’t words of an historic storm! So we can come off our snow high now!
Thanks for the update. And so it goes. It will still snow and still be pretty, so we who love snow will have to enjoy what we get. 'Dry slots' and 'tight gradients' are 'dreaded words' that I have come to learn about from Mr. Novak over the years. Bring what you've got, Old Man Winter/Mother Nature. Stay safe everyone. And thanks for this blog over the years, Bill.
NWS forecast this morning: Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 12 and 18 inches, with locally higher amounts possible near the Twin Cities metro. ❄️❄️🤞
Novak: "Still, lots of questions & worries on snow gradients & exact storm track, but I like how this latest 00z NAM3k looks."
The 00 Nam3k showed 12 inches for the metro. The latest model (06 Nam3k) is down to 10 inches for the metro. I sure hope we aren't sniffing a big disappointment brewing for the TC metro.
Of course some will be disappointed. They always are as not everywhere will get a foot +. There is always a dry slow and tight gradients. Always. And March storms bring in sleet and mixing on the south side of the storm. But did you all see the bulls eye?!?! Right over the Twin Cities. What more could we ask for?
I’m still personally predicting that this will be in the top 10 snowfalls in Minneapolis history. Which means 16 inches plus.
Ok fellow snow enthusiasts let’s have some fun as we wait for the first flakes of this beast to arrive. Since we have all seen the colorful maps of very large snow totals being put out where do you thing we will land in terms of historic snowfalls(now keep in mind this is for MSP airport where records are kept and we all know by now they don’t always record what we folks record/get). Let me know what place you’re thinking and add in your prediction if you like. Top 10 ⬇️
1. 28.4 inches: 1991 October 31 - November 3 (Halloween Blizzard) 2. 21.1 inches: 1985 November 29 - December 1 (Thanksgiving Weekend) 3. 20.0 inches: 1982 January 22 - 23 4. 17.4 inches: 1982 January 20 - 21 5. 17.1 inches: 2010 December 10 - 11 (Domebuster) 6. 16.8 inches: 1940 November 11 - 13 (Armistice Day) 7. 16.7 inches: 1985 March 3 - 4 (Largest March snowstorm) 7. 16.7 inches: 1940 March 10 - 14 9. 16.5 inches: 1982 December 27 - 28 10. 16.0 inches: 1917 January 20 - 21 10. 16.0 inches: 1999 March 8 - 9
Yes, thank you for the lists Bigdaddy. I held up a big measuring stick by my granddaughter’s leg to show how high different amounts could be on her leg. I don’t think she’ll grasp it till she sees it. Great fun.
Come on peeps! Nobody’s given a solid prediction yet(PWL….i need something more concrete then 16+….give me a number my man).
I’ll be honest I am very skeptical of the high numbers but reading a lot of posts on this storm and people’s snow maps and NWS discussion I just have a sneaky suspicion this will land in Top 3….i say 20.5”. But a part of me wishes if we can get that high why not have a stalled band on us and get the top spot of 28.4”. I’m waiting and intrigued on how this will play out, we are at Mother Natures mercy now!
We just went to Blizzard Warning ‼️ And are calling for parts of Eastern MN approaching 2 Feet!!! Guys I don’t know about you and I I know we have been burned by big storms in the past but this has potential to rival the Halloween 🎃 Blizzard!
I was just messaging a friend on FB who lives there. I should give her a heads up! Holy Moly. Thanks for the info, though that would make me sad. So goes Mother Nature. Like Mr. Novak said, this storm is tricky.
It's been a long time since I have posted here. Looking at the mosaic radar returns, phase one of this storm is behaving as modeled as snow has broken out all along the warm front. The surface low is in CO, the Upper level trough is digging behind it and getting very impressive, it will start going negatively tilted picking up the surface low and dragging to the NE over Iowa. Phase two will develop and will put eastern MN in the deformation zone on the NW side of the mid to lower level surface low. The last of the short term CAM models ( 3km Nam 18z ) has fallen into place.
The extremely consistent ECMWF ensemble ( consisting of 51 members whose initiation has each been tweaked ever so slightly) vs the deterministic run continues to show a mean QPF 1.5 to1.7" over the metro. Some of those show less some more.
I'm going on the heavier side, 22" at MSP. Somewhere near the metro could challenge the Halloween storm.
Lots of models with the 0z run showing the very heavy snow a decent jog south of MSP near Red Wing to Rochester now. Why cant we just have one big storm where it goes to plan? Ridiculous
NWS at MSP and Chan 'only' had 5" as of midnight? That does not sound like much to me, but maybe there has been more since then? It doesn't seem to be snowing much right now where I am, either, and the radar is showing more intense precip in southern MN ..... I'm thankful most everyone still has their power on........... Let's see what falls today, fellow snow lovers.
Just woke up to some disappointment here in the Brooklyn Park area. Yes, it is snowing but we have only picked up about 5 inches since the snow started around 5PM yesterday. We had 3 inches at 10:45 last night when I saw my neighbors come home. At 2:15 this morning I looked out the window and could still see their tire tracks in the driveway. I knew right away it had snowed very little over the preceding four hours. It was predicted to snow very heavily overnight. Clearly it did not. Looks like the storm shifted south.
People in Rochester must be happy. Initially for several days the prediction was they would get the heaviest snow down there. Then yesterday the forecast changed to them getting a mix and then turning to snow today. That would have significantly lowered their snow totals. I see now they are supposed to get another foot or so today and there is no longer any mix at all in their forecast.
"Historic", "Halloween blizzard", "Walz mobilizes the national guard", "Some cities pre-calling snow emergencies," "bullseye over metro", "apocalyptic," etc. -- very surprised only woke up to 7 inches in mpls. if that. Beautiful snow, though!
I'm still satisfied over here in SLP. Novak didn't put out a lot of the hype, and I think the snow emergencies are good because it's a mess in my neck of the woods, especially after this heavy band just moved through. And yeah, down in Rochester I see reports of the thunder snow, and my pal in Red Wing is getting walloped from what I see on radar/maps. But again: it's still a good snow event and a mess out there even in parts of the metro. Have a good day everyone. I'm staying put because I am lucky enough to not have to go out.
I agree it’s beautiful outside this morning. I love snow, so I always welcome it when we can get it. However, at least so far this snowfall is pretty run of the mill like most others. Nothing special. Definitely nothing historic. Not even close. Here in Minnetonka it has yet to snow heavily during this storm, despite the predictions to do so. We also have had no wind at all. North central and northeast WI appear to be the big winners with 2-3 feet when it’s all said and done. The far southern TC metro will do fairly well too. Oh well, the way the past three winters have gone here, beggars can’t be choosers. We will take what we can get. Enjoy!
Just caught Novak’s 10 AM weather update video. He confirmed what we already know. The storm shifted south. The big snows will be in the Rochester area northeast into north central and northeast Wisconsin. If you recall, several days ago that was the initial forecast before they started moving the heavy snow totals north to the metro. For those of us north of 395 in the metro, what we have is pretty much what we’re going to get, around 5-6 inches. Very very disappointing given that last night they were still predicting a good 12+ inches here. Novak said many places in southeast MN, around Rochester and just north of Rochester, are already reporting 16 inches or more of snow and they’re supposed to get another 6 inches or so today and tonight. better luck next winter, Metro.
About an hour ago my niece in Wausau sent me a picture of her deck. She had a yardstick measuring 29 inches so far! She said the winds have not really kicked in yet, so this was all on the level. They are expecting another 12-14 inches between now and tomorrow morning!
Now THAT is hitting a jackpot! Now I'm obsessed with looking at their live webcams. I do see traffic moving. And I just checked NWS and they have three reports from there: 22, 21.1 and 20.4" so far around noon today. Amazing. Thanks for the report. I'm jealous, not jealous.
Final total for Crystal/Plymouth area is around 9.5 inches. A very nice total, but I must admit I was a little disappointed because the predictions were about twice that amount. It was a very pretty snowfall. Be safe out there, including when shoveling. The snow is heavy and wet.
Copy/Paste from FB. And while we will get another 2-3 (if lucky) more inches tomorrow/tomorrow night, this is probably 'it' for we who love snow. So again, thanks Bill for this blog as always through the years, and see you all back her next 'winter' in Minnesota. Have a safe spring/summer/fall.
Preliminary storm total snowfall as of 7 PM Sunday: MSP: 8.8" NWS Chanhassen: 10.5" St. Cloud: 4.0" (as of 7AM) Eau Claire: 12.5" (as of 1 PM)
I know most of you are probably not looking here any longer, but I keep reading about 'Super El Niño' possibilities for next winter. Paul Douglas mentioned the winters of 2015-16 and 1997-8 and upon checking I found the snowfalls to be way below normal. I always say, 'Let's see what happens,' every year, but winters have definitely changed in my humble opinion.
Don’t be throwing in the towel just yet @WeatherGeek and others! Winter makes a comeback this week with colder AND snowy conditions and yes I believe we will be measuring snow not once but possibly twice…..late Wednesday into Thursday and Saturday into Sunday….if these pan out and deliver snowfall we can exceed our seasonal average of 54”. Remember April has delivered some big snows in the past!!
Yaaaas! I loved it yesterday when Novak posted on FB that 'winter isn't over yet' and the comments proliferated. Thanks for the update, Bigdaddy. Bring it and PWL, start dancing, please.
Temps are going to be marginal at best for these events, radiational cooling will be a must and timing of course if precip comes in predominantly at night. MSP currently sits at 48.5” for the seasonal snowfall if we can pick up 5.5” this week we hit the average, even though it may seem like underwhelming winter we are close to if not average season it’s just that we started out strong fizzled in January and just been limping along with warmer weeks followed by occasional snowfalls since February.
Thanks again for this new update. Precip is good; we who love snow would just like those big white flakes v rain, right?Someone posted on FB that Mr. Novak needs to stop living up to his moniker of 'Snovak'.....but no posts yet re: possibilities of where snow may fall nor quantities from what looks like a multi-day event.
I’m quite excited about these rounds of moisture that’ll be coming our way over the next week or so. Weather is a fun thing. But my hopes for a lot of snow look to be not very strong right now. Things seem to be trending northward.
I am quite concerned about freezing rain and sleet that could make for quite hazardous conditions. I will be curious what Novak says about things as we go through the next 24 hours.
Nice to see you PWL..... yes, we need precip but I too am worried about a potential half inch of sleet tomorrow night and another half inch of sleet Thursday morning. Tough to stay upright and cars/trucks to not slam into each other. Lucky folks up north get the 'all snow' it looks like. I too am watching for Mr. Novak to weigh in. We had the advisory starting tomorrow night in the metro. Dance and maybe by a miracle the snow/cold will shift over the metro, too....... Agreed though it's great to get moisture.
00Z HRRR says 5-8” from MSP on to north metro, every other model says an inch or less. HRRR has performed terribly as of late so I wouldn’t hang my hat on it being correct.
The way it is looking with the most recent models is if you want snow go north of St. Cloud. That is where both systems will deposit several inches of accumulating snow. The TC Metro will receive mostly rain with some sleet, snow occasionally mixed in, perhaps a dusting/coating? Temperatures will be marginal for any wintry precip at all in the TC Metro, and the best chance for wintry precip will be during the overnight and early morning hours.
Thanks, Not That Bill. I see Novak posted later this morning the snow will be up north (no surprise) and the Twin Cities will receive mostly rain (again...no surprise).
Bigdaddy summed up this winter nicely. A lot of potential. Got out of the gate fast. Started to really stumble in January and has pretty much fallen flat on its face ever since. The official forecast was for a colder and snowier than average winter. The forecast missed its mark by a couple hundred miles. In contrast, my friends in northern lower Michigan are ecstatic! They have had quite the winter with consistently cold (below average temperatures) snowy (above average) weather. They still have at least two feet of snow on the ground and have continuously had several inches on the ground since December. I told them we have had bare ground here since mid-February, with the exception of a handful of days. They said November was the last time they had bare ground and pavement. Close but no cigar, southern MN/Twin Cities. Location, location, location.
See you all in October, though I do not have high hopes for next winter being El Nino will be present, and a possible Super El Nino at that.
Looking forward to the discussion shifting to the weekend after this current systems moves through. PWL - I'm dancing with you!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the new thread, Bill. "Who knows?" I'd love a big snowstorm on my birthday weekend, but I repeat: "Who knows?" Mr. Novak has put out a map on his FB page that shows the MSP area on the northern fringe of the 'bullseye' for potential snowiness, but ???? Time will tell as I always say. If PWL could dance up a 'storm' literally...... maybe we will get walloped. I can't wait to see the discussion here.
ReplyDeleteLooks like there is a decent chance we could have our biggest snowstorm in 3 years!
ReplyDeleteAfter looking over the latest 00Z data I fulling expect WINTER STORM WATCHES issued this morning for the weekend system. I know we’re weather enthusiasts and it’s hard to taper the expectations cuz of disappointing storms from our past, all I can say is the storm on it’s current projections has the potential to deliver the biggest snowfall for MSP in over 3 years!! Stay tuned
ReplyDeleteYes! Even NOAA, which is usually way behind Mr. Novak, has a chance of '5-9" for the metro this Saturday night???? And 55 mph winds possible tonight (no 'calm' before stormy weather approaches, eh?)..... I hope we do get our 'biggest snowstorm in three years' as anonymous says above. Keep us posted, Bigdaddy. I still look at the blog list on the right and see how some years there were so many discussions/active weather events..... and look at the trend the past several years of not much weather to talk about/not as much snow to enjoy. BRING IT, Old Man Winter/Mother Nature.
DeleteNeed to apologize, I did jump the gun a bit to quickly on the call for Winter Storm Watches, since this isn’t suppose to begin until Saturday evening the 48hr threshold was not met yet which would mean by this afternoon we should see Watches posted. Some of this morning’s 06z models showing still impressive snowfall amounts in the 12-18+ category. Time will tell!
ReplyDeleteWatch just posted for tonight and another through Monday.
ReplyDeleteCorrectly called, Bigdaddy. As Travis notes above, on top of our high wind warning, we now have the winter storm watch. If this monster comes to be....... woo hoo amazing. Stay safe with the incoming winds. Hoping our power grids hold tonight/tomorrow morning.
ReplyDeleteOkay, even NWS is pushing out insane totals in the metro. Is this really true or are they hallucinating? I can't wait to see what all of you who study the models see.
ReplyDeleteSome strong wording from the NWS:(for those who didn’t see it)
ReplyDeleteGuidance has continued to increase both the areal footprint of
snowfall and also amounts as QPF continues to climb as guidance
tries to resolve separate moisture sources from the Pac NW and Gulf,
with overall QPF amounts exceeding 1.25-1.5`` for much of the area.
There will be a gradient of precipitation and therefore snowfall
with lower amounts in central Minnesota increasing for southern
Minnesota, with the overall highest amounts generally expected from
southern Minnesota through northern Wisconsin and into the UP. Snow
ratios are going to be a bit tricky with this event, as we know
locally that systems containing this much moisture often struggle to
produce snow ratios exceeding 10 to 1, but even with this factored
in there will be a large area from southern MN through western WI of
amounts in excess of 12-18`` with 20``+ amounts possible for mainly
eastern MN and western WI. Winds will be increasing especially
towards the later part of Sunday which could slightly diminish snow
amounts, however this seems most likely for southwest to southern
Minnesota where the overall strongest gusts of around 30-35mph are
expected. No matter which suite of guidance you try to look at the
ensemble percentiles and probabilities are absurd with chances of 6+
inches (10:1 snow ratio) at 90-100% across most of the area and 12+
of 70-80% over eastern Minnesota into western WI.
Given the overall forecast trend of increasing QPF and snow amounts
and the overall powerful dynamics of the approaching system, we have
expanded the Winter Storm Watch to the rest of the MPX CWA with the
only real headline question being if we will end up needing Blizzard
Warnings for a period of time Sunday with Winter Storm Warnings all
but a certainty at this point. The bottom line no matter what
headline ends up being issued is that travel will be next to
impossible on Sunday as snow continues to pile up, with our
recommendation being to avoid travel within the region if at all
possible during this window. Recovery efforts may be slow due to the
amount of snow, which could bleed into Monday morning and beyond as
temperatures will not reach above freezing again until Wednesday at
the earliest. Please consider altering travel plans and staying off
the roads on Sunday if at all possible and riding out the storm.
Chance at 20”+…..might as well make a run at the Halloween Blizzard at this point and reset the record books!!
I agree, Bigdaddy! I was reading the NWS discussion for Rochester, which said historic snow amounts are a real possibility from the Twin Cities to Rochester. They also mentioned winds could gust to 50 mph on Sunday. The NWS is predicting 9-13 inches for Saturday night and 8-12 inches for Sunday here in Plymouth. We picked up 21 inches during the Tax Day Blizzard here in April 2018. That is the most snow I have ever seen from a storm in MN. I have lived here since the summer of 1992, so I regretfully missed out on the '91 Halloween blizzard. Fingers crossed for a big one and what a Happy Birthday that would be for WeatherGeek!
ReplyDeleteI lived through the 1991 storm so there are stories to tell, and it would be epic to get a 24-hour total that’s bigger. The 1991 storm was a multi-day event. My eyes are popping at the NWS totals that could go past 2 feet if it holds together. That’s why it’s so hard to believe but hey, it’s been 35 years since that storm in ‘91. Maybe we can call this the St Paddy’s day storm a couple of days early ha. Dance PWL so that this birthday is one to remember!!!
DeleteThis is so fun and unbelievable! Even on the low ends, this storm will bring us a foot plus. Even that is huge! I give credit to my dancing. I have been doing the “Bring it” dance all week. I’m tired, now in shape, and am still dancing.
ReplyDeleteLet’s go!!!
Bring it!!!
I want to talk about this for years to come! I want to talk about this to my future grandkids!!
ReplyDeleteBring it!!!
Yes, indeed. I’m out and about out right now but can’t wait to see what Mr Novak puts on FB today.
DeleteHas the chance to be a generational storm rivaling the metro dome buster.. I mean while we are at it let's go for the Halloween blizzard record right?
ReplyDeleteIt's been a long time since I've seen 'expected amounts' listed this much- https://www.weather.gov/mpx/winter
ReplyDeleteI want to be so happy and excited, but I dread a 'bust' or 'gradient' that affects it all........... Mr. Novak still hasn't posted on FB and he's my 'guru/GOAT' for this stuff.......... Hoping, hoping, hoping.......
ReplyDeleteYou're reading my mind, WeatherGeek. I so want to be really excited about this storm, but far too many times we have had the rug pulled out from under us here in the metro at the last minute. I am very cautiously optimistic at this point. While I have my fingers crossed this storm delivers (even though it is at the end of the season and there is absolutely no existing snowpack) my real prayer is to experience a real old fashion MN winter again where there is in fact a hefty snowpack this time of year. I am not confident that will ever happen, but that is my sincere hope!
ReplyDeleteStorm appears to be shifting south. Still expecting 10 inches or so in the metro, but the hopes of an historic snowfall in the metro appears to be waning.
ReplyDeleteNWS update @ 10:31AM today: "[H]eavy snow with a broad area of 10 to 16 inches likely, and a narrow swath of 15 to 20 inches. Totals across portions of western and central Wisconsin could approach 2 feet. The heaviest snow will fall Saturday evening and overnight, with rates of 2 inches per hour possible. Winds will start out of the northeast at 20 to 30 mph."
I knew it. When Mr Novak doesn’t post on FB yet then something is up. Too good to be true. Color me sad. Thanks for the update.
DeleteI had the same thought, WeatherGeek. I thought it was odd Novak is being so silent.
ReplyDeleteHold on now. The NAM latest runs are actually NORTH. And the latest GFS has MSP right in the bullseye.
ReplyDeleteMost models between midweek to now have had us on the northern edge. With the NAM being more north, I think we might be in the bullseye.
Bring it!
Okay, PWL. Keep the updates coming. I still wonder why Mr. Novak is quiet on his FB page. He is obviously studying all the models a lot. I'm hoping he does a video over there later today or tonight. Take care and keep dancing, please.
DeleteI hope you're right, PWL! As you would say, "Bring It!" Please don't stop dancing!
ReplyDeleteI have close relatives that live in Door County (WI). I just checked their forecast. The NWS is predicting 28 to 35 inches for them!!
There’s a reason Novak is absolutely quiet on all the platforms, being almost 24 hours out from the storm and he hasn’t made any videos or even put out a forecast map of his own. Also most models like the HRRR NAM EURO have moved the heavy snow north of MSP. Goodbye anything historical and if the north trend continues MSP be lucky to get 6”.
ReplyDeleteJon with his "brilliant" take without acknowledging the fact that the HRRR and NAM models have without a doubt with every storm this year have had a 100+ mile northern bias until 12ish hours out from the storm.
DeleteWhile I can see that the NAM and HRRR have trended a notch north, the 12z EURO has not budged - the bulls eye of Minnesota is right over the Cities. And that is the most recent EURO.
ReplyDeleteNovak will post soon. This is a significant forecast and I’m sure he’s looking at all the data which is still more than 24 hours away!
Hang in there everybody!
Bring it!
There's some good info here on the MPR blog. Looks like 8-24." Rooting for you guys! https://www.mprnews.org/story/2026/03/13/sunday-snow-blitz-wide-snowfall-range-likely-across-minnesota-dangerous-travel-weather-sunday
ReplyDeleteGreat link, Bill. Thanks for posting, and thanks for rooting from afar, too. Much appreciated.
DeleteStill nothing from Novak. He is maintaining radio silence. WCCO just said the storm is shifting south, so 18+ in Rochester and close to two feet in central and eastern WI. He showed 10-14 for the metro.
ReplyDeleteEveryone commenting on Novak's silence...it could simply be that he's focusing on providing updates to his paying clients today. I don't think this is the first time he's gone quiet before a storm.
ReplyDeleteVery true, so very true. He already put out his map the other day of probable 'bullseye' and surrounding areas, and now that I know the storm is still forming out west, he is probably waiting/watching/studying/etcetera. He actually messaged me when I said I'd sent some more friends his way on FB and said after I told him that for me he is the GOAT of winter weather forecasting: "Much appreciated. Not easy with a storm like this." So I'm calling it quits early tonight after being up since 3 with those howling winds, and tomorrow I will see what all the posts say. Have a good night everybody.
DeleteI had the same thought.
DeleteTotally agree, SWMplsGirl and WeatherGeek. Let’s take a pause and see how things look tomorrow morning.
ReplyDeleteNovak has spoken and it’s not good, his messaging doesn’t sound enthusiastic at all:
ReplyDelete“ Still lots of questions & worries on snow gradients & exact storm track, but I like how this latest 00z NAM3k looks. There is going to be some ICE & DRY air in southern MN. Meanwhile, people will be upset because this storm will NOT unfold as expected. Stay tuned.”
Those aren’t words of an historic storm! So we can come off our snow high now!
Thanks for the update. And so it goes. It will still snow and still be pretty, so we who love snow will have to enjoy what we get. 'Dry slots' and 'tight gradients' are 'dreaded words' that I have come to learn about from Mr. Novak over the years. Bring what you've got, Old Man Winter/Mother Nature. Stay safe everyone. And thanks for this blog over the years, Bill.
DeleteNWS forecast this morning:
ReplyDeleteHeavy snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 12 and 18 inches, with locally higher amounts possible near the Twin Cities metro. ❄️❄️🤞
Novak: "Still, lots of questions & worries on snow gradients & exact storm track, but I like how this latest 00z NAM3k looks."
ReplyDeleteThe 00 Nam3k showed 12 inches for the metro. The latest model (06 Nam3k) is down to 10 inches for the metro. I sure hope we aren't sniffing a big disappointment brewing for the TC metro.
Of course some will be disappointed. They always are as not everywhere will get a foot +. There is always a dry slow and tight gradients. Always. And March storms bring in sleet and mixing on the south side of the storm. But did you all see the bulls eye?!?! Right over the Twin Cities. What more could we ask for?
ReplyDeleteI’m still personally predicting that this will be in the top 10 snowfalls in Minneapolis history. Which means 16 inches plus.
Doing my top 10 dance!
Bring it!!
Thanks for the updates everyone and dance fast and furiously, PWL! I'm going to enjoy every flake of it. :+)
DeleteNovak just posted the highest totals
ReplyDelete(10-14+) will be through the TC metro into central WI.
Ok fellow snow enthusiasts let’s have some fun as we wait for the first flakes of this beast to arrive. Since we have all seen the colorful maps of very large snow totals being put out where do you thing we will land in terms of historic snowfalls(now keep in mind this is for MSP airport where records are kept and we all know by now they don’t always record what we folks record/get). Let me know what place you’re thinking and add in your prediction if you like. Top 10 ⬇️
ReplyDelete1. 28.4 inches: 1991 October 31 - November 3 (Halloween Blizzard)
2. 21.1 inches: 1985 November 29 - December 1 (Thanksgiving Weekend)
3. 20.0 inches: 1982 January 22 - 23
4. 17.4 inches: 1982 January 20 - 21
5. 17.1 inches: 2010 December 10 - 11 (Domebuster)
6. 16.8 inches: 1940 November 11 - 13 (Armistice Day)
7. 16.7 inches: 1985 March 3 - 4 (Largest March snowstorm)
7. 16.7 inches: 1940 March 10 - 14
9. 16.5 inches: 1982 December 27 - 28
10. 16.0 inches: 1917 January 20 - 21
10. 16.0 inches: 1999 March 8 - 9
Also to break it down even further if you don’t think we land in the Top 10, I present to you Top 25 ⬇️
DeleteTop 25 Snowfalls in the Twin Cities: 1884-2023
Top Snowfalls for Twin Cities
1. 28.4 inches: 1991 October 31 - November 3 (Halloween Blizzard)
2. 21.1 inches: 1985 November 29 - December 1 (Thanksgiving Weekend)
3. 20.0 inches: 1982 January 22 - 23
4. 17.4 inches: 1982 January 20 - 21
5. 17.1 inches: 2010 December 10 - 11 (Final "Domebuster")
6. 16.8 inches: 1940 November 11 - 13 (Armistice Day)
7. 16.7 inches: 1985 March 3 - 4
7. 16.7 inches: 1940 March 11 - 14 (tie)
9. 16.5 inches: 1982 December 27 - 28
10. 16.0 inches: 1917 January 20 - 21
10. 16.0 inches: 1999 March 8 - 9 (tie)
12. 15.8 inches: 2018 April 13-16 (Thunder Blizzard)
13. 15.3 inches: 1886 November 16-18|
14. 15.1 inches: 2023 January 2-5 (Big Mess)
15. 14.7 inches: 1985 March 31
16. 14.3 inches: 1991 November 29 - 30 (Black Friday)
17. 14.1 inches: 1952 March 22 -23 (tie)
17. 14.1 inches: 1983 November 27 - December 1 (tie)
19. 14.0 inches: 1899 March 10-12
20. 13.8 inches: 2011 February 20-21
21. 13.6 inches: 1966 March 22-23 (tie)
21. 13.6 inches: 1983 April 14 (tie)
23. 13.4 inches: 2023 February 21-23
24. 13.1 inches: 1983 December 13-15
25. 13.0 inches: 1907 April 27-28
I stick to haven’t have predicted. 16+
ReplyDeleteBring it!
Thanks for the list, Bigdaddy! Here's hoping for a top 10 snow tonight/tomorrow!
ReplyDeleteYes, thank you for the lists Bigdaddy. I held up a big measuring stick by my granddaughter’s leg to show how high different amounts could be on her leg. I don’t think she’ll grasp it till she sees it. Great fun.
ReplyDeleteCome on peeps! Nobody’s given a solid prediction yet(PWL….i need something more concrete then 16+….give me a number my man).
ReplyDeleteI’ll be honest I am very skeptical of the high numbers but reading a lot of posts on this storm and people’s snow maps and NWS discussion I just have a sneaky suspicion this will land in Top 3….i say 20.5”. But a part of me wishes if we can get that high why not have a stalled band on us and get the top spot of 28.4”. I’m waiting and intrigued on how this will play out, we are at Mother Natures mercy now!
I am going with 15.4 inches for the airport (MSP). I hope it’s more!!
ReplyDeleteWe just went to Blizzard Warning ‼️ And are calling for parts of Eastern MN approaching 2 Feet!!!
ReplyDeleteGuys I don’t know about you and I I know we have been burned by big storms in the past but this has potential to rival the Halloween 🎃 Blizzard!
That’s fair, BigDaddy. I say 16.5”
ReplyDeleteSnow has already begun, earlier than models forecasted. At least here in the east metro.
ReplyDeleteHERE. WE. GO!!!!
ReplyDelete16.5 inches
BRING IT!!
I'm not liking these last minute 18Z runs. Looks like a decent shift to the SE. Bullseye Red Wing now?
ReplyDeleteI was just messaging a friend on FB who lives there. I should give her a heads up! Holy Moly. Thanks for the info, though that would make me sad. So goes Mother Nature. Like Mr. Novak said, this storm is tricky.
DeleteThe shift in the 18Z mentioned by anon is FAKE NEWS. Literally not true ALL 18z models have the bulls eye on the twin cities.
ReplyDeleteStill want to call it fake? Its unfortunate but we will still have a good amount. Just not historic
DeleteIt's been a long time since I have posted here. Looking at the mosaic radar returns, phase one of this storm is behaving as modeled as snow has broken out all along the warm front. The surface low is in CO, the Upper level trough is digging behind it and getting very impressive, it will start going negatively tilted picking up the surface low and dragging to the NE over Iowa. Phase two will develop and will put eastern MN in the deformation zone on the NW side of the mid to lower level surface low. The last of the short term CAM models ( 3km Nam 18z ) has fallen into place.
ReplyDeleteThe extremely consistent ECMWF ensemble ( consisting of 51 members whose initiation has each been tweaked ever so slightly) vs the deterministic run continues to show a mean QPF 1.5 to1.7" over the metro. Some of those show less some more.
I'm going on the heavier side, 22" at MSP. Somewhere near the metro could challenge the Halloween storm.
Thank you PWL and Randyinchamplin for the updates.
ReplyDeleteThanks Randyinchamplin.
ReplyDeleteNot a bad start, 1st 6 hr measurement that started with very light snow now getting heavier 2.25"
ReplyDeleteofficial measurements are to be taken at 6 hr intervals to account for compaction.
ReplyDeleteLots of models with the 0z run showing the very heavy snow a decent jog south of MSP near Red Wing to Rochester now. Why cant we just have one big storm where it goes to plan? Ridiculous
ReplyDeleteBand of heavy snow setting up in Dakota County on south. Wouldn't call it a bust but boy are some people going to be pissed off in the morning.
ReplyDeleteThe bust is in play, heavy band setting up south of MSP. Not good for all those metro snowlovers!
ReplyDeleteNWS at MSP and Chan 'only' had 5" as of midnight? That does not sound like much to me, but maybe there has been more since then? It doesn't seem to be snowing much right now where I am, either, and the radar is showing more intense precip in southern MN ..... I'm thankful most everyone still has their power on........... Let's see what falls today, fellow snow lovers.
ReplyDeleteThe current heavy band moving through is beautiful/awe-inspiring.
ReplyDeleteJust woke up to some disappointment here in the Brooklyn Park area. Yes, it is snowing but we have only picked up about 5 inches since the snow started around 5PM yesterday. We had 3 inches at 10:45 last night when I saw my neighbors come home. At 2:15 this morning I looked out the window and could still see their tire tracks in the driveway. I knew right away it had snowed very little over the preceding four hours. It was predicted to snow very heavily overnight. Clearly it did not. Looks like the storm shifted south.
ReplyDeletePeople in Rochester must be happy. Initially for several days the prediction was they would get the heaviest snow down there. Then yesterday the forecast changed to them getting a mix and then turning to snow today. That would have significantly lowered their snow totals. I see now they are supposed to get another foot or so today and there is no longer any mix at all in their forecast.
"Historic", "Halloween blizzard", "Walz mobilizes the national guard", "Some cities pre-calling snow emergencies," "bullseye over metro", "apocalyptic," etc. -- very surprised only woke up to 7 inches in mpls. if that. Beautiful snow, though!
ReplyDeleteI'm still satisfied over here in SLP. Novak didn't put out a lot of the hype, and I think the snow emergencies are good because it's a mess in my neck of the woods, especially after this heavy band just moved through. And yeah, down in Rochester I see reports of the thunder snow, and my pal in Red Wing is getting walloped from what I see on radar/maps. But again: it's still a good snow event and a mess out there even in parts of the metro. Have a good day everyone. I'm staying put because I am lucky enough to not have to go out.
ReplyDeleteI agree it’s beautiful outside this morning. I love snow, so I always welcome it when we can get it. However, at least so far this snowfall is pretty run of the mill like most others. Nothing special. Definitely nothing historic. Not even close. Here in Minnetonka it has yet to snow heavily during this storm, despite the predictions to do so. We also have had no wind at all. North central and northeast WI appear to be the big winners with 2-3 feet when it’s all said and done. The far southern TC metro will do fairly well too. Oh well, the way the past three winters have gone here, beggars can’t be choosers. We will take what we can get. Enjoy!
ReplyDeleteJust caught Novak’s 10 AM weather update video. He confirmed what we already know. The storm shifted south. The big snows will be in the Rochester area northeast into north central and northeast Wisconsin. If you recall, several days ago that was the initial forecast before they started moving the heavy snow totals north to the metro. For those of us north of 395 in the metro, what we have is pretty much what we’re going to get, around 5-6 inches. Very very disappointing given that last night they were still predicting a good 12+ inches here. Novak said many places in southeast MN, around Rochester and just north of Rochester, are already reporting 16 inches or more of snow and they’re supposed to get another 6 inches or so today and tonight. better luck next winter, Metro.
ReplyDeleteAbout an hour ago my niece in Wausau sent me a picture of her deck. She had a yardstick measuring 29 inches so far! She said the winds have not really kicked in yet, so this was all on the level. They are expecting another 12-14 inches between now and tomorrow morning!
ReplyDeleteNow THAT is hitting a jackpot! Now I'm obsessed with looking at their live webcams. I do see traffic moving. And I just checked NWS and they have three reports from there: 22, 21.1 and 20.4" so far around noon today. Amazing. Thanks for the report. I'm jealous, not jealous.
DeleteFinal total for Crystal/Plymouth area is around 9.5 inches. A very nice total, but I must admit I was a little disappointed because the predictions were about twice that amount. It was a very pretty snowfall. Be safe out there, including when shoveling. The snow is heavy and wet.
ReplyDeleteCopy/Paste from FB. And while we will get another 2-3 (if lucky) more inches tomorrow/tomorrow night, this is probably 'it' for we who love snow. So again, thanks Bill for this blog as always through the years, and see you all back her next 'winter' in Minnesota. Have a safe spring/summer/fall.
ReplyDeletePreliminary storm total snowfall as of 7 PM Sunday: MSP: 8.8"
NWS Chanhassen: 10.5"
St. Cloud: 4.0" (as of 7AM)
Eau Claire: 12.5" (as of 1 PM)
I know most of you are probably not looking here any longer, but I keep reading about 'Super El Niño' possibilities for next winter. Paul Douglas mentioned the winters of 2015-16 and 1997-8 and upon checking I found the snowfalls to be way below normal. I always say, 'Let's see what happens,' every year, but winters have definitely changed in my humble opinion.
ReplyDeleteDon’t be throwing in the towel just yet @WeatherGeek and others! Winter makes a comeback this week with colder AND snowy conditions and yes I believe we will be measuring snow not once but possibly twice…..late Wednesday into Thursday and Saturday into Sunday….if these pan out and deliver snowfall we can exceed our seasonal average of 54”. Remember April has delivered some big snows in the past!!
ReplyDeleteYaaaas! I loved it yesterday when Novak posted on FB that 'winter isn't over yet' and the comments proliferated. Thanks for the update, Bigdaddy. Bring it and PWL, start dancing, please.
DeleteTemps are going to be marginal at best for these events, radiational cooling will be a must and timing of course if precip comes in predominantly at night. MSP currently sits at 48.5” for the seasonal snowfall if we can pick up 5.5” this week we hit the average, even though it may seem like underwhelming winter we are close to if not average season it’s just that we started out strong fizzled in January and just been limping along with warmer weeks followed by occasional snowfalls since February.
DeleteThanks again for this new update. Precip is good; we who love snow would just like those big white flakes v rain, right?Someone posted on FB that Mr. Novak needs to stop living up to his moniker of 'Snovak'.....but no posts yet re: possibilities of where snow may fall nor quantities from what looks like a multi-day event.
DeleteI’m quite excited about these rounds of moisture that’ll be coming our way over the next week or so. Weather is a fun thing. But my hopes for a lot of snow look to be not very strong right now. Things seem to be trending northward.
ReplyDeleteI am quite concerned about freezing rain and sleet that could make for quite hazardous conditions. I will be curious what Novak says about things as we go through the next 24 hours.
Nice to see you PWL..... yes, we need precip but I too am worried about a potential half inch of sleet tomorrow night and another half inch of sleet Thursday morning. Tough to stay upright and cars/trucks to not slam into each other. Lucky folks up north get the 'all snow' it looks like. I too am watching for Mr. Novak to weigh in. We had the advisory starting tomorrow night in the metro. Dance and maybe by a miracle the snow/cold will shift over the metro, too....... Agreed though it's great to get moisture.
Delete00Z HRRR says 5-8” from MSP on to north metro, every other model says an inch or less. HRRR has performed terribly as of late so I wouldn’t hang my hat on it being correct.
ReplyDeleteThe way it is looking with the most recent models is if you want snow go north of St. Cloud. That is where both systems will deposit several inches of accumulating snow. The TC Metro will receive mostly rain with some sleet, snow occasionally mixed in, perhaps a dusting/coating? Temperatures will be marginal for any wintry precip at all in the TC Metro, and the best chance for wintry precip will be during the overnight and early morning hours.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Not That Bill. I see Novak posted later this morning the snow will be up north (no surprise) and the Twin Cities will receive mostly rain (again...no surprise).
ReplyDeleteBigdaddy summed up this winter nicely. A lot of potential. Got out of the gate fast. Started to really stumble in January and has pretty much fallen flat on its face ever since. The official forecast was for a colder and snowier than average winter. The forecast missed its mark by a couple hundred miles. In contrast, my friends in northern lower Michigan are ecstatic! They have had quite the winter with consistently cold (below average temperatures) snowy (above average) weather. They still have at least two feet of snow on the ground and have continuously had several inches on the ground since December. I told them we have had bare ground here since mid-February, with the exception of a handful of days. They said November was the last time they had bare ground and pavement. Close but no cigar, southern MN/Twin Cities. Location, location, location.
See you all in October, though I do not have high hopes for next winter being El Nino will be present, and a possible Super El Nino at that.