What does the NWS say about this winter?
Given the talk of another La Nina forming -- and Accuweather's already infamous prediction of another brutal winter for these parts -- we were curious to know exactly how strong the correlation is between La Nina and a cold, snowy winter for Minnesota. We checked with the Twin Cities branch of the National Weather Service and this is what they told us:
It is true that there are signs of a La Nina returning for this winter out in the equatorial Pacific. About 70-80% of the time there is a La Nina, temperatures in MN for the Dec/Jan/Feb 3-month season are below normal (with about 60-70% of those winters experiencing above-normal snowfall). The Climate Prediction Center shows the historical correlation to the ENSO phase and temp/precip patterns across the US at this site.
Our own guess -- based on gut, not science -- is for average temperatures, slightly below normal snowfall and one to two short tropical getaways.
What are your gut thoughts on the winter ahead. Will it take a while to get going? Will it start with a vengeance? Will it feel like a St. Louis winter?