Friday, May 10, 2013

Is Roller Coaster Ride Headed for Record High

After getting through possible late-spring frost this weekend, forecasters were noting the possibility of 90 or higher for Tuesday. Here's a new thread for those who want to discuss the possible record warmth, starting with some comments from Randy in Champlain, one of our prize contributors:

Looking at the dew point fields that both the ECMWF and GFS are portraying for Tues at or around 65°to 70°, I wonder if that can be right as relative humidity levels at 925 and 850 mb are less than 50%. Looking deeper the 850-925mb wind fields seem to originate from the Sonora region into west TX and along the lee side of the Rockies as apposed to coming up from the gulf.

This could impact the high temps in a rather dramatic way for Tuesday. If the models are right and we see 65 dews I would expect surface temps to be at or around 90°. However I suspect the Dews will be around 58° and that could allow the surface temps to reach 95°+ which would put us in record territory as the high temp for May 14 is 95°.

So to Tom,Duane and Hammer what are your thoughts?? Oh by the way Tuesday looks to be severely capped by the warm temps aloft.