Tuesday, April 15, 2014

A Final Later Winter/Early Spring Curve?

The winter that never quits seems to pose one last possible spoiler to those wishing for sustained warm weather (or just sustained non-winter weather!). Snow advisories now dance around the northeastern Twin Cities metro and the National Weather Service forecasts 1-3" for the central core of the area. What will happen and what's the latest model data suggest? Share your thoughts here on what almost has to be the last possibility of snow this season (famous last words).

Monday, March 31, 2014

Late Week Snow in the Cards?

While your proud host is in transit from Minnesota to California, we had a chance to talk with Tom Novak about the prospects for snow late this week. Even this far out, Tom has the Twin Cities in a high risk for a significant winter storm.

Use this space to share your thoughts on the possibility of a late-week storm.

Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Snow. Again. And Why Not, It's Only Mid-March.

As of Monday evening, the stage seemed set for another bout of winter weather according to virtually all local weather outlets. There were moderate variations in the predictions but all weather gurus agreed amounts would be higher in the northwest Twin Cities and lower in the southeast Twin Cities. Here's a recap as of late Monday evening.

WCCO: 1-3" SE, 3-6" NW -- (3" for the core metro)
KSTP: 3-6"(4.5" for core metro)
KMSP: 3-5" (4")
KARE: 2-5" (3.5")
NWS: 3-5" (4")
Star Tribune: 3-5" (4")
MPR: 3-7" (5")
Accuweather: 2-4" (3")
Weather Channel: 2-4" (3")
Novak Weather: 4-8" (6")

A reminder that you can track with us on Facebook and Twitter.

Thursday, March 13, 2014

And Seemingly Out of the Blue May Come More White

Wednesday's sunset after another melty day.
Our last blog entry created some buzz about the value of mid- to long-range forecasts. We all want to know if winter is effectively over or if more snow and cold lurks. Many weather outlets -- both television and the major Twin Cities blogs -- mentioned just yesterday (and even this morning) that conditions were not ripe for significant snows over the next several weeks (though many did include caveats about March snowstorms often popping up out of nowhere).

Commenter Disco, a frequent contributor to the blog, mentioned that statistician Nate Silver's book, The Signal and the Noise, details how forecasts nine days out and more are actually less accurate than if climatological norms were predicted. We researched this concept and found a great description here. It's worth the read, as is Nate Silver's book, and will leave you wondering why anyone bothers trying to forecast beyond nine days -- at least given the current state of the science of meteorology.

And... drum roll... as if on cue, mother nature appears to be trying to teach a lesson to those who would make general statements about weather beyond a week out. The latest weather models are suggesting that "a storm to watch" will head into the Midwest by around Tuesday of next week. Here's Tom Novak's first take on the scenario.