Wide Disparity in Forecast for Dec. 3-4 Snow Event

With winter precipitation expected to begin by midnight, here’s the latest summary from the various forecasters. KSTP has the most aggressive forecast with 6-10” forecast. Accuweather and Minnesota Forecaster in-house forecaster Tom Novak were on the lower side. As we’ve seen fairly often over the last several years, KSTP is at the high end for TV forecast outlets and KARE is at the low end. (It’s been suggested that you can take half the KSTP forecast and arrive at the KARE forecast; that seems to be the case in this instance.)

We were struck by the NWS comment regarding their confidence in the forecast. A tweet at 3:04 p.m. this afternoon stated, “Confidence where that rain/snow line will setup is below average this close to the event.)”

Finally, if you’d like to learn more about the atmospheric dynamics causing the upcoming storm scenario, view our video with forecaster Tom Novak.

The all-important jet stream.

WCCO: 3-6 (5 p.m. news)
KSTP: 6-10” (late afternoon blog update)
KMSP: Either missed it or no totals were mentioned
KARE: Says 2-5” but shows model data depicting 5” (4:57 website video)
MPR: 3-7 per 4:07 blog update
NWS: 4-9” (weather.gov – Minneapolis)
TWC: 5-8 per map on NBC News
Accuweather: 1-3”
Tom Novak: 2-4”
Strib: 2-4” (blog last updated 8:42 a.m.)

A Forecast in Flux

As of late Monday night, predictions for a possible snow event Tuesday night into Wednesday was, as MPR’s Paul Huttner put it, “a forecast in flux.” Although the National Weather Service issued a Winter Storm Watch mid-afternoon Monday, there was a sense that many forecasters were not quite buying into such lofty possibilities. However, there was also a sense that the storm was taking a more southerly route, which would bring heavier accumulations closer to the Twin Cities from the north.

Here’s our recap of forecasts gathered late Monday night for snow possibilities Tuesday night into Wednesday.

WCCO: 1-3” but more possible later on Wed.

KSTP: 3-5” (10:40 p.m. on news)

KMSP: No specific amounts mentioned in 10 p.m. news

KARE: 2” (10:40 video posting on website)

NWS: 3-6”

MPR: “Early hunch” 1-6” from south to north (Updraft blog 10:46 p.m.)

Strib/Paul Douglas: 2-4” (11:21 p.m. update)

Accuweather: 1.67” (we added the 12-hour amounts posted on the site)
The Weather Channel: <1” (weather.com)

Side note: We did want to bring attention to what we consider one of the better weather blogs for a Twin Cities television forecaster (i.e., excepting MPR and Strib weather columns). KMSP's Cody Matz provided some nice graphics and an accompanying explanation of how and why the expected heavier snow accumulations have moved south in this blog.

Finally, a reminder that you can find us on Twitter and Facebook.

KARE11

WCCO

NWS

Weather Channel (weather.com)

A Test of Mid-Range Forecasts: Forecasters Calling for Arctic Air Next Weekend

With unusual unanimity for a forecast so far out, local meteorologists warned upper midwesterners to gird for some arctic temps NEXT weekend. As of Friday night, some forecasters were warning of sub-zero low temps and single digit high temps. We were surprised to see that old-school forecaster Craig Edwards, who typically doesn't discuss weather beyond 5-7 days out, noted the model forecasts for next weekend. Here's a sampling of what we could find.

Accuweather

Weather Channel (weather.com)

Paul Douglas/Strib

Most Forecasts Expecting Little More Than Coating for Thursday Night

Here’s a recap of forecasts for Thursday night’s possible snow. As much as possible, we’re using forecasts closest to 24 hours before onset as the forecast of record. Several forecasters have told us that 24 hours before snow onset is the time when you can best separate the men from the boys.

That said, for Thursday night’s forecast, there’s really not a lot of separation. As best we could determine, the NWS was the most liberal with snow forecasts (mentioning 3” on the top end of the range) while WCCO and KSTP seemed to poo poo the possible snow the most.

Herewith, the less than staggering snow forecast for the evening of Thursday, November 21, 2013:

WCCO: Coating to an inch (5 p.m. news)

KSTP: Coating to an inch

KMSP: Total accumulations look very light with around an inch in the metro and generally 2 inches or so for southern Minnesota. (Source: website post at 5:04 p.m.)

KARE: Said 1-2”. Showed 2” for MSP on graphic (6 p.m. news)

MPR: Coating to 2” (blog post at 5:01 p.m.)

NWS: 1-3” (Source: weather.gov/55111, zipcode for MSP airport)

Star Tribune: 1” possible (from blog with posting date of 12:17 a.m. on Nov. 20)

AccuWeather: 1.06” (Source: accuweather.com for zipcode 55111)