Is Roller Coaster Ride Headed for Record High

After getting through possible late-spring frost this weekend, forecasters were noting the possibility of 90 or higher for Tuesday. Here's a new thread for those who want to discuss the possible record warmth, starting with some comments from Randy in Champlain, one of our prize contributors:


Looking at the dew point fields that both the ECMWF and GFS are portraying for Tues at or around 65°to 70°, I wonder if that can be right as relative humidity levels at 925 and 850 mb are less than 50%. Looking deeper the 850-925mb wind fields seem to originate from the Sonora region into west TX and along the lee side of the Rockies as apposed to coming up from the gulf.

This could impact the high temps in a rather dramatic way for Tuesday. If the models are right and we see 65 dews I would expect surface temps to be at or around 90°. However I suspect the Dews will be around 58° and that could allow the surface temps to reach 95°+ which would put us in record territory as the high temp for May 14 is 95°.

So to Tom,Duane and Hammer what are your thoughts?? Oh by the way Tuesday looks to be severely capped by the warm temps aloft. 

Mayday! Mayday! Could There Be Accumulating Snow in May?

Mayday (per Merriam-Webster): an international radio-telehone signal word used as a distress call.

We propose a new meaning: a cry from distressed locals who can't believe what some weather models are suggesting. That'd be S - N - O - W.

Updated Tuesday late afternoon/early evening:

If you do the math, it appears the NWS calling for perhaps 3-5 inches of snow.

KSTP's Dave Dahl forecasts "mainly a cold rain." KSTP has been better than most weather outlets recently.

MPR: "At this point, two to as much as six inches."


At 6:24 p.m. this fine spring Monday evening, here's an excerpt from what the National Weather Service had to say in its forecast discussion:

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WIDESPREAD
3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO FALL...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

What do you say peeps? Could this really happen???

The scene on April 30, 1984, Mr. TMF's first spring in Minnesota.

Anatomy of an April Meltdown

You often hear about snow coming down at the rate of an inch per hour, but today it almost seemed like the snow melted at the rate of an inch an hour. This is a series of photos taken roughly every hour from 8:30 a.m. to 6:30 p.m. By our estimate, the snow depth dropped from an average of about five inches to an average of about one inch. Needless to say, the sun's strength on April 23 is quite potent!

Inside Weather: KSTP's Patrick Hammer Offers Thoughts on Forecasting ... and Possible Monday Night Snow

On Sunday, TMF conducted a Google Hangout (video interview) with KSTP TV morning meteorologist Patrick Hammer. Patrick offered his perspective on weather forecast philosophy as well as a few thoughts on what might be in store for the Twin Cities Monday p.m. into Tuesday (hint: snow). We think you'll enjoy hearing Patrick's perspective -- much more than you will his forecast.