|Eddie, official TMF dog (Oct. 4, 1995 - Dec. 21, 2012)|
|From MPR weather blog|
|National Weather Service|
|A dusting of snow fell on ornamental grass in St. Paul on Friday.|
Long range models are beginning to hone in on the transition to a more active regime for next week. The 12z European model (ecmwf) was the most bullish in bringing a significant winter storm to the area between Monday night and Wednesday. The forecast was consistent with the Panhandle Hooker composite for 6+ inch snowfalls at kmsp. The 12z GFS trended toward this stormier scenario as well. There is still plenty of room for fluctuation in temporal/spatial details with this system...but the first notable snowfall of the season is not out of the question for early next week.
|A hazy, smoke-enhanced sunset heralded the end of a 99-degree day in St. Paul.|
There are a couple reasons why we do surveys. One is if there is a great deal of interest (usually by the media and public) in what caused the damage (that is a subjective call on our part). We also will do a survey if we are trying to figure out scientifically what happened, so that we can review the radar data and other environmental clues and learn something for the next time. Even if we have had warnings in place, it is still important to learn something about what we’ve seen on radar etc.Having said that, there will be times when we do not perform a survey every time there is damage somewhere. Sometimes staffing is such that we cannot spare anyone to go take a look. Or maybe more severe weather is anticipated and we need to remain at the office. Or maybe somebody has provided pictures/video of a tornado or downburst and it is patently obviously what caused the damage. Or the scenario is obviously a certain type of damage (e.g. the Goodhue County storm damage on June 14 – see http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/mpx/NewsStory_June14.pdf).
|An analysis of predicted starting and stopping times revealed that RainAware was the most accurate.|
|This photo was taken on April 30, 1984 outside Lakewood Cemetery in Minneapolis. So yep, it can happen.|
|MPR Updraft weather blog|