Monday, November 19, 2012

Winter Weather Finally on the Horizon?

For snow and winter lovers, the wait may be almost over. The National Weather Service included the following in their afternoon statement this Monday, Nov. 19:

Long range models are beginning to hone in on the transition to a 
more active regime for next week. The 12z European model (ecmwf) was the most 
bullish in bringing a significant winter storm to the area between 
Monday night and Wednesday. The forecast was consistent with the 
Panhandle Hooker composite for 6+ inch snowfalls at kmsp. The 12z 
GFS trended toward this stormier scenario as well. There is still 
plenty of room for fluctuation in temporal/spatial details with 
this system...but the first notable snowfall of the season is not 
out of the question for early next week.

112 comments:

  1. Ian Leonard just stated (with preview slide to match) "No big storms in sight."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Was he talking about his 7 day forecast? That I could believe. But if he is talking about the 7-10 day, I would only have a confidence factor of 50% on that statement. Lets see. The 11/19/0z run of the GEM model showed it, the 12z run of the Euro showed it, and the 12z run of the GFS was hinting at it along with 4 out of 11 of it's ensemble members that I can find snowfall totals for. Not that all of them were showing a bulls eye for MN but it was close enough that I think I would hedge my bets a bit.

      Delete
  2. I saw it as well. He comes up with four headlines at the beginning of a forecast and one of those said, "No big storms in sight." Seemed to be a general blanket statement that wasn't applicable to the 7-day forecast.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Wow!!! A major change for the GFS, it now shows a full latitude trough over the CONUS and has lost the SE Ridge completely. The only ridging is now over the West coast. It actually dives the 850mb 0°C line into north central TX, the only decent snow's are now showing up over the far NE US. I can't stay up to see what the other models show, but it will be interesting to see when I get up. I wonder how the GFS operational run will look compared to it's individual ensembles.

    ReplyDelete
  4. With what the GFS showed tonight, (20/0z) I went looking for the Euro ensemble forecast for the period in question from it's 19/12z run,I think Ian may be right.

    ReplyDelete
  5. For snow lovers overnight models were a bit sad.... but storm still a week out and it may easily appear again. Watch that AK ridge position

    ReplyDelete
  6. POOF!,Mother Nature giveth and Moture Nature taketh away! Instead of a post that reads winter weather on the horizon?,how about something like,the possibility of 2 straight brown christmases for Minneapolis residents? Spoke way tooo soon Novak,how can you jump on the models so prematurely and declare 12+ inches somewhere in Mn/Wi/Ia when there wasn't a ton of consistencey with the models and the event is over 7 days away,but you weren't the only declaring snow(but you'll be eating the most crow if the storm doesn't come back since you already attached inch amounts).

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hammer is right. How many times have we seen storms show up on models, disappear for a couple days, only to come back again? Yeah it happens. For the 12z runs the system does reappear with some of the models, GEM being the most bullish at the moment. You guys should read the second part of the forecast discussion from La Crosse's office. They have a good explanation of what is going on in the long term and how models will likely struggle until whatever transition is supposed to occur, does occur. This happens all the time with big pattern changes where the models are all over the map. As far as two straight brown Christmas's well it is way too soon to have that thought. I'm not saying it won't happen, but too early to make that suggestion. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Guys,
    get real here: you seem to deny reality. There won't be any significant snowstorm this winter, like there weren't last winter.
    Sell your snowblower and cancel your snow removal contract if you have one.
    This is the new normal. Anoymous (10 AM ) is probably right: I think it is much more likely to have a second straight brown Xmas than any significant snow.
    As I said several times already: we will pay for that Winter 2010-11 for years to come.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "paying" should be used sparsly and relativly. There is NO WAY whatsoever to predict a winter off the previous one. The cruddy winter last year was not because of the great winter the year before, but because there was a low pressure over greenland that kept a high pressure over the atlantic which brought us unusually warm air. Last year's cruddy winter does not mean this one will be cruddy as well. From what I get from you, you seem to be telling me a good winter means a bad winter, and a bad winter mean a bad winter.

      Speaking on behalf of the term "the new normal": There is no way to know WHAT the new normal is. I will not disagree with the fact that there will be a change in our weather, but until it happens, I will be skeptical. One bad winter does not indicate this "new normal", and nor does a good one either. It will take at least a decade to even get an idea of what this so called new-normal will be.

      Finally on the brown Christmas: The probabillity of a brown christmas on average is 25%. We were due for a brown christmas last year, for the four previous Christmases were all white. That is no indication as to this year, but brown christmases are fairly common around here.

      And Finally: There is no way to verify reality until it happens. Models failing on many storms does not mean that they will fail on the next one too. I take any model with a grain of salt, wheather it predicts good or bad weather. Its weather, there is no way to guarentee what will happen, much less say that nothing will ever happen is a "reality".

      Delete
    2. Well, you speak very well, almost out of a textbook, and in general I cannot argue with most of what you are saying.
      But the problem is that you seem to be missing is that "unusually" warm air, is not that unusual anymore. we are going to have a few days of cold, then the first week of december it warms again in the 40s. This did not happen 10-15 years ago. There is no sustained cold anymore. The proverbial minnesota winters are becoming myths, instead of reality.
      The new 30-year averages 1981-2010 that were upgraded last year are in some cases 3-4 degrees higher than the 1971-2000.
      The evidence is already here. This is what I mean by new normal: 40s in December, 60s for Thanksgiving. The so called January thaw will go extinct simply because there won't be anything to thaw out.

      Delete
    3. The way you suggest is what is predicted to be in 2100, not 2012. In order for winters to average in the forties and thanksgiving in the sixties is to increase the global average by 7.5 degrees, not 1.3, as it is now. I read an article about how minnesota's climate will change and the 2100 threshold was equvalent to what Illinois experiences in winter and what Kansas expierences in the summer.
      And once again, I will stress my point, there is no way to verify "reality" unitl it happens. What is projected is not neccesarily true. Studies also indicate that over the past thirty years there has been an increase in cloud cover and precipatation. Water vapor is the number two greenhouse gas (methane is first). What this means now: more storms of all kinds, including snowstorms.

      To make another point: I am not saying climate change does exist, but I do believe that its values are a little overinflated. For one, drawing on information on the paragraph above, and my own knowlage on weather, I can say that increased cloud cover has prevented more dropout, downright cold nights which happen in calm, clear, weather. For two: the urban heat island. Most weather observations come from urban areas. As we all know, the urban heat island is warmer then the surrounding air. This means that certain areas are more favored to be observed then others, and thus there is not a true and accurate world averge temperature.

      Delete
  9. We have a good old-fashion heavyweight bout brewing:

    Novakweather's "I have no doubt that a massive storm will get squeezed out"
    VS.
    Ian Leonard's "No big storms in sight"

    Who's your money on?
    Vegas should look into weatherman forecast gambling for big cities in the US.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My money is on the TV expert Leonard(even though I dont like him).

      Delete
  10. I would like to add this guys:

    I have watch the models repeadetly flicker with the snow and the trough push with no snow. Even if the models show nothing now, then that does not mean there will be noting later. All Ian is doing is trying to get media attention. That is his job. The real people that are the most truthful in predicting is the NWS, for that is THEIR job. So I will go with the NWS prediction of this storm: a PONTENIAL for a storm.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Storms back.......but at a lesser degree.....and at the moment a track that may just nip SE Minnesota with snow,we'll see what happens!

    ReplyDelete
  12. Winter storm has reappeard on the GFS, the UKMO, and the NOGAPS. The rest are still going with the "big trough, no snow" variation.

    Also: maybe a little clipping of snow the day after Thanksgiving?

    ReplyDelete
  13. Anybody notice the 850 temp tomorrow. It dropps 16 degrees in 6 hours! from +9 to -7 from 12z to 0z. Jeez!!

    ReplyDelete
  14. @Hammer For those of us who aren't as weather-educated as we'd like to be, what's the significance of a big drop like that at the 850 level? (Realizing that refers to winds approximately 5,000 feet up.)

    ReplyDelete
  15. @Novak,you still liking the setup for early next week?is there still no doubt that a massive storm will develop and head in our direction?is the blizzard potential you speak of still there?and is someone in MN/WI/IA still going to see 12+ inches.......you came out with a flurry of uppercuts with your statements and now without a sound from you in the middle rounds,its like your down on the canvas,come on get up and at least bob and weave!,get back into the fight!

    ReplyDelete
  16. Bill, thats just a rapid decrease in temp at 5,000 feet. 16 degrees in 6 hours in a level of of the free atmosphere with out much effect from the land below is impressive

    ReplyDelete
  17. I don't see anything sticking out on the 12Z EWCMF in the way of a storm.

    ReplyDelete
  18. The only model at this point that has that storm is the Canadian model. Euro and GFS have it much weaker, and more towards the Ohio River Valley and northeast coast. While I'm starting to lose hope with this one, nothing is a lock yet. The inital set up the models were showing of a southwest flow is one that is great for us to get big storms up here. Let the waiting game continue.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This mornings run of the NOGAPS had it well south and east of here. I've never really been a big fan of the Navy model anyway but I will look from time to time.

      Delete
  19. must have clicked the wrong link...

    ReplyDelete
  20. Changing weather as I type........10 degree drop in an hour.......radar is lighting up to the west....NWS now calling for rain over to snow with up to an inch.........we'll see what happens.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Only in Minnesota can you go from 61(right after midnight)to moderate sleet(weather as I just stepped out) in the same day!

    ReplyDelete
  22. Already a white ground in the NW metro where I'm Thanksgiving-ing. I wouldn't be surprised to see another 0.5-1 inch before it's over. What a crazy surprise! Did the front come through earlier? Stronger? I thought accumulating snows were supposed to stay Brainerd and northward.

    ReplyDelete
  23. The originally mentioned storm obviously has fizzled for Minnesota; heck, there is a better threat of flurries/light snow here in GA in the North Georgia Mtns into NC, but temps will be dicey thus a cold rain for the most part. The Thanksgiving Day record high of 60F to upper 20s and light snow was very impressive and 'sneaky' to some, but several folks were aware of the cold front/winds days in advance. The threat of flurries then light snow become more apparent late Tuesday into Wednesday as forecast models indicated as such. Just enough moisture was present to be acted upon by the rapid change in temps from the surface to mid-levels along with upper level energy clearly showing up on guidance.

    Obviously, the Twin Cities was impacted as seen, but data did suggest this was possible especially the northern burbs which overall verified per tonights reports. The fact the front sped up in timing from Thursday evening to midday was a sign of the slightly stronger than anticipated system and snow developing over the western part of the state Thanksgiving morning/early afternoon. That energy migrated east and voila -- light accumulating snows. Maybe its years of experience and pattern recognition seeing this and not relying on precise numbers and colors on various models. A look at water vapor imagery helped to verify this situation on Wednesday with several disturbances aloft appearing helping to verify short range model guidance as the system rolled across the Dakotas/southern Canada.

    And, with all the hoopla this evening already -- another batch of snow has formed over central MN and rotating SE toward the Twin Cities area this evening as the back edge of PVA moves through the area; NVA will take over shutting off the precip by early Friday morning. Fun for those those folks standing in line at Best Buy tonight that is for sure. :)

    What was very interesting was the rapid drop in temps -- aided by the snow and evap cooling. Maybe? Either way, it was impressive and fun to watch from afar. It reminded me in some of ways of two weekends ago when I was in town and just a few miles from the tornadic cells in Burnsville/Eagan and then seeing cold temps and snow the following day (Sunday) and even colder temperatures and more light snow with traffic issues Monday morning.

    Gotta love Minnesota weather.

    Now prepping for the cold front to approach and pass here in metro Atlanta Friday night ushering in that Canadian air, albeit modified, but still chilly for these here parts. Lows dip into low 30s by Sat/Sun and highs in the 40s/near 50s -- good raking weather. My non-Minnesota neighbors won't be thrilled, of course.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oh, and thanks to Randy in Champlin for the URL to Tom H now of NWS Chanhassen work on the meteorology of the SS Edmund Fitzgerald event of Nov 10, 1975. I forgot to say thanks earlier.

      Delete
    2. your welcome

      Delete
  24. yesterday afternoon and night was fun with the changing weather,and the surprise snowfall,and yes it was a surprise,NO OUTLET mentioned accumulations,just the "possibility of flurries and scattered snow showers" leading up to Thanksgiving,only when the NWS saw the precip out in western MN did they go from 50% chance of rain and snow to snow likely and up to an inch forecast when the precip was on top of us,that's not forecasting that's nowcasting,even my amauter eye can do that,the roads and conditions for so many traveling to Thanksgiving dinners were far worse then expected,it was a blown forecast.
    Now that we got our first inch of snow out of the way......what's next?........I looked at the extended and many outlets have rain next weekend(really?that sucks),wundergroud has a high of 64 next Saturday is that true?,is it possible?....say it ain't so........I was hoping winter was here to stay.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, no outlet mentioned the accumulations to the degree it happened, but the data suggested the potential which is what I was mentioning. There are other times when similar situs can happen with little or no snow. Definitely fun to watch the event unfold yet not for those out on the roads. However, it is Minnesota, its mid to late November so any threat of flurries and/or light snow whether it be hours or days in advance should be at least listened to. Tough call.

      Its a long winter so don't get too discouraged as its only late November. :)

      Delete
  25. Car crashes, ice dams, influenza, OH MY!

    At any rate, yes, Wunderground is predicting 64 for next Saturday, but the GFS says 36. Euro says 43, but 55 for Sunday 12/2.

    ReplyDelete
  26. As DDwx noted, the front did seem to speed up more than anticipated. Even as of noon, the hourly forecasts for the rest of the day were well warmer than what the temps turned out to be. Here's a graphic and commentary: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=501316729901969&set=a.223618651005113.61903.172523749447937&type=1&theater

    ReplyDelete
  27. my source for the Euro for next weekend is showing mid 50's,
    possible we could see upper 50's, at this point in time however it's just a trend, nothing more, nothing less.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hate to say it but the 24/0z run of the GFS is now in the Euro camp for blow torch warmth next weekend, still it's just a trend, lets just wait until the models have a few more runs at this.

      Delete
    2. Randy,can you say BORING weather and while your at it BROWN Christmas(again!)

      Delete
    3. @anonymous-

      WAY WAY too far out. Not even the long range models go that far out. Rediculous claim to make. Odds are in favor of a white christmas.

      Delete
  28. Does anyone know if Novak has put out a snowfall map yet for the Tuesday/Wednesday storm he talked about earlier in the week,was wondering if he pinned down where that 12+ inches was going to fall,man I cant wait till it snows,just too brown around here and dying to use the new snowblower my wifey got me last week for my birthday,Friday morning was a tease but I hope Tuesday is the real deal!

    ReplyDelete
  29. Serves me right to not read what evryone has posted,guess storm isn't coming,that's a bummer!

    ReplyDelete
  30. How does Wunderground make their long-term forecasts? They're saying 70 next Sunday!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I asked Wunderground about this a few months ago. Here's what they had to say:

      "The deal is that all forecast outlets dampen out anomaly in
      the long range forecasts. We simply let our algorithm spit out a high, without pushing the number toward climatology.

      So, we have a strength there, and a weakness. The strength is better verification, and better prior warning of extreme events. The weakness, everyone calls you crazy! And sometimes you are wrong!"

      Delete
    2. I should add, they are predicting 55 where I live. They also predict a high of 68 in Mahtomedi. 13 degree difference within five miles! I don't think so unless there is a catagory two tornado or somthing.

      Delete
  31. Well, I'm really pulling for at least 60. Huttner will owe me a beer if we reach that temp :)

    ReplyDelete
  32. So after reading what Bill posted about Wunderground,which national weather outlet do you find to be the most dependable,accurate,and credible?who do you guys most often visit to get our local weather?
    Keep in mind this,Wunderground had mid 30's today,were stuck in the mid/upper 20's today......next Saturday they had a high of 64 yesterday,already cooled down to 50 as of an hour ago,but yes Sunday spiked to 70(a joke!),what I'm getting at is Wunderground is very unpredictable ..........on the other had Accuweather has highs of 44 and 46 next weekend and Weather Channel is cooler yet with 38 and 39 respectively!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. NWS. Period.

      The job of the NWS is to provide dependable forecasts for the public.

      The job of all the others is to show us advertisments that are unrealated in order to make money.

      Delete
    2. Careful -- last time somebody on here called Wunderground's forecast a joke ate crow for lunch! :)

      (p.s. that was me)

      Delete
    3. btw, their forecast has moderated substantially. They're now saying 46/48 Sat/Sun.

      Delete
  33. @bemaki,I agree with you too about the NWS.....but I'm asking of the national outlets(Accuweather,Weather Channel or Wunderground)who does everyone think is the most dependable,accurate and credible when it comes to forecasting our weather.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I really do not like any of them. They are all vying for attention, and this is what detracts from an accurate forecast.

      Of the national outlets, I like intellicast the best.

      Delete
  34. Boring quiet weather=brown Christmas,2011 revisited!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am not even going to try.

      Delete
  35. There is a storm at the end of the 12z model run, but it is not the GFS, it is the ECMWF! The ECMWF does the best predicting in the fall/early winter timeframe, and the fact that the ECMWF has somthing indicates that our luck might be starting to change...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. IT currently thinks that it will be a rainstorm, but that could change very easily.

      Delete
    2. Dave Dahl says rain as well on his blog,I guess for the drought its good because the ground hasn't completely froze yet,but snowlovers are hating the maps.

      Delete
  36. It was the ECMWF last week (220 hours out) that was predicting the a large storm this upcoming week but that changed as fast as it had risen. I'm not going to get too excited yet.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Do you remember that?! A week ago ECMWF had a blizzard for us tomorrow!! I still see a trend for more blocking in about 8 - 10 days that should shake up the pattern.

    ReplyDelete
  38. Last December the high temperature was at, or above freezing for 20 out 31 days.
    I think this year we will have at least 10, maybe 15.
    Bill, can you imagine how much more fun would this blog have been in Marquette, MI, with lake-effect snow almost every other day??

    ReplyDelete
  39. How about doing some forecast high temp comparisons for Saturday thru Tuesday:

    Forecasts recorded Monday 11/26/2012. NWS only offers 7 days.

    --------------------------------------------------
    Forecast high for Saturday 12/01/2012
    --------------------------------------------------
    50 - ECMWF
    43 - GFS
    50 - Wunderground
    47 - NWS

    --------------------------------------------------
    Forecast high for Sunday 12/02/2012
    --------------------------------------------------
    37 - ECMWF
    47 - GFS
    43 - Wunderground

    --------------------------------------------------
    Forecast high for Monday 12/03/2012
    --------------------------------------------------
    52 - ECMWF
    51 - GFS
    52 - Wunderground

    --------------------------------------------------
    Forecast high for Tuesday 12/04/2012
    --------------------------------------------------
    50 - ECMWF
    36 - GFS
    43 - Wunderground

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good stuff, Disco. We'll have to remember to check back on this info after the days pass.

      Delete
  40. Guess the snowfall totals is now up on the Strib web site. I know I posted here that I was going with 38", but that included a 6+" snowfall for Dec. I now longer think that will happen, when I enter my season snowfall (sometime before the end of Nov.), I may have to lower that prediction.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Here we are again sliding ever so softly, slowly and passively...into another "winter". Yes, it has been cold for a few days recently but the good ole longer range forecast has what now seems like our annual December thaw already scheduled (beginning this weekend and running through at least mid-December!). Of course that will be in addition to, not in lieu of, the January thaw, and given the way "winter" works around here anymore I am confident that we will have a February and March thaw too. Call me gun shy. Call me cynical. Call me what you will. I know it's still early in the season but I am developing that all too familiar nagging and uneasy feeling about this "winter". Nobody loves winter more than I do. I told my wife that we are moving to Fairbanks, Alaska if winter is going to continue to fail to make its annual pilgrimage to Minnesota, as it once did like clockwork. I would love nothing more than to be first in line to eat my words, but......

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Can't agree with you more.
      I have lost hope on this one already. I think there's a good chance we'll actually see even less snow that last winter.
      I am also ready to move somewhere else, most likely the UP Michigan where lake effect snow never disappoints.

      Delete
  42. Forecasts recorded Tuesday 11/27/2012

    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Forecast high for Saturday 12/01/2012
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    46 - ECMWF
    42 - GFS
    52 - Wunderground
    47 - NWS
    46.75 - Average

    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Forecast high for Sunday 12/02/2012
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    45 - ECMWF
    44 - GFS
    50 - Wunderground
    48 - NWS
    46.75 - Average

    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Forecast high for Monday 12/03/2012
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    59 - ECMWF
    53 - GFS
    59 - Wunderground
    52 - NWS
    55.75 - Average

    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Forecast high for Tuesday 12/04/2012
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    39 - ECMWF
    38 - GFS (temp falling thru the day)
    37 - Wunderground
    38 - Average

    ReplyDelete
  43. Yearning for a white Christmas,well look no further then the most reliable forecast in town,Accuweather has three different snow events with accumualations totaling 11 inches from said events with temperatures climbing no higher then 39 degrees after this Monday,don't you just LOVE how they can put out a 25 day forecast with precise precip totals.

    ReplyDelete
  44. Mr.Dahl and Mr. Hammer over at KSTP are hinting at a pattern change after reading their blogs last night and this morning,saying by the end of next week it will be snowier and colder,which is a complete opposite of what PD is offering on his blog saying 40's and 50's much of next week with no storms looking out next 2 weeks.......don't you just love contradiction.

    ReplyDelete
  45. The pattern changing? Joe B from WeatherBell shared something on twitter that is interesting ...
    http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/273787882475515904/photo/1

    ReplyDelete
  46. Oh it never fails. I drive to Chicago most Christmases. I harbor no illusions that it will not a 10-hour white-knuckler. It always is. You being to see why I loathe winter.

    Anyway, here are the forecast updates. I removed Tuesday because it appears that a cold front will sweep thru during the early hours of that day. The temp may fall into the low 20s by late in the day.

    Forecasts recorded Wednesday 11/28/2012

    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Forecast high for Saturday 12/01/2012
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    46 - ECMWF
    45 - GFS
    52 - Wunderground
    48 - NWS
    47.75 - Average

    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Forecast high for Sunday 12/02/2012
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    48 - ECMWF
    42 - GFS
    54 - Wunderground
    47 - NWS
    47.75 - Average

    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Forecast high for Monday 12/03/2012
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    59 - ECMWF
    57 - GFS
    61 - Wunderground
    54 - NWS
    57.75 - Average

    ReplyDelete
  47. The national weather service hinting at a more active pattern, mentioning multiple weak systems. Also mentioning chance of snow after five day. First signs that a drought will break start with weak moisture starved systems gradually gaining strength as the air gradually gains that moisture. If that happens, we may finally start to see some decent storms.

    ReplyDelete
  48. Plymouth Weather LoverNovember 28, 2012 at 6:50 PM

    This is what I am talking about!! Get that jet stream in the right position and drive those snowstorms our way. Bring it!

    ReplyDelete
  49. Late next week into the following weekend there still are signs of our first significant snowfall here in the Twin Cities. Instead of the jet stream splitting over the center of the country as it did last year, it's holding together, which usually means colder weather. This also gives us a better chance for getting moisture, because the storm track isn't diverted southward by a split in the jet stream. Our chances for snow should start to increase next week.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. right off dave dahl's blog.
      let us hope he is right.

      Delete
  50. @Disco,enough already,we get! Thanks for the time and research on the milder temperatures coming,but its only for 3 days,40's for the weekend,50's on Monday,this is not unheard of nor is it in record territory.With the utmost respect I think most of us visiting here would like to see some snow and be tracking snowstorms,its almost December,we can talk about your warmth again in April.Talk to me about winter related topics,what do you think about what Dave Dahl wrote on his blog,I for one like the fact that he is looking beyond the warmth and talking snow.There is one silver lining to Disco's warmth if you havent raked leaves yet or hung up Christmas lights I would think this would be the last best weekend for it!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wunderground is predicting 63 for Monday, which would be a record.

      Delete
  51. @Sam G,reading the KSTP blog this morning(Mr.Hammer)it seems by his wording they may be backing off abit on the snowier pattern shift,saying " PERHAPS a little bit of snow late week",doesnt sound as encouraging as "there are signs of our first significant snowfall here in the Twin Cities",but I guess if you get more then a inch(which is what we got to date)it becomes significant.
    I'm with PWL just bring it already this is boring to have to go thru this 2 winters in a row,man it seems like 2010 was lightyears away.

    ReplyDelete
  52. I really think a big shift in the pattern is coming likely after next week so not really backing off, just pushing it back a tad. 0z GFS was awfull and I noticed HPC is going with Euro which was more optimistic.

    ReplyDelete
  53. Forecasts recorded Thursday 11/29/2012

    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Forecast high for Saturday 12/01/2012
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    46 - ECMWF
    47 - GFS
    48 - Wunderground
    47 - NWS
    47 - Average

    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Forecast high for Sunday 12/02/2012
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    43 - ECMWF
    46 - GFS
    46 - Wunderground
    47 - NWS
    45.5 - Average

    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Forecast high for Monday 12/03/2012
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    61 - ECMWF
    53 - GFS
    63 - Wunderground
    54 - NWS
    57.75 - Average

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you Disco for your reasearch. I know that it takes time to compile a list like this. I really apprciate you sacrificing your time so that we do not have to spend as much ourselves looking up these things.

      Once again, thank you.

      Delete
  54. Here we go...
    GFS predicting warm up then a snowstorm after the cooldown tuesday...
    Will check ECMWF...

    ReplyDelete
  55. ECMWF also hints at a storm... but about 48 hours later... and weaker. (GFS about 192hrs, ECMWF about 240hrs)

    ReplyDelete
  56. Bemaki, your throwing darts. 192 and 240? When its at 72, wake us up.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. True dat, fellow Anonymous!

      Delete
    2. Look, There has not been a dart thrown that has hit since 2010. One has got to hit eventually. In addition, there is a pattern change that is occuring. We ate going into a more active pattern. Thus this storm is more justifiable than the others.

      I would like to add: don't be a prick. We weather enthusiasts like to hope for SOMTHING.

      Delete
    3. "I would like to add: don't be a prick."

      Says the guy who posted that awesome bit of sarcasm up above. Keepin it classy.

      Might I remind you that apparently the original intent of this blog was to verify forecasts. Bill seemed to have endorsed my forecast summaries a few days ago.

      I'll spare you any more of it, bemaki. I know you're hoping for 250 inches this winter. OK, fine. I'm a weather enthusiast too, and the "something" that I'm hoping for is a warm snowless winter. Deal with it.

      Delete
  57. All right, make the snowstorm hunt official: wunderground is predicting four inches of snow thursday night, December 6th (At least in the north metro.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What the heck...

      For that very night, winderground predicts 17 degress for north metro and 34 degrees for Saint Paul, with rain instead of snow. I guess that is what happens with their equaiton.

      Delete
  58. Wunderground is as unreliable as Accuweather,Disco loves it because their always on the warm side of things,and most of the time they are wrong,case in point you remember the 70 they threw out there a few days again for this weekend that Disco has been tracking,it will be cloudy with rain around we would be lucky to reach the mid 50's on Monday.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Really?

      http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/2012/09/game-set-and-match-weather-underground.html

      Delete
    2. Yeah really?,when you go out on a limb so often your bound to get one right,even you got to see how incredible their temperatures move all over the place from one day to another,yeah these are some really trustworthy numbers reported by you:
      For Sunday 70 43 50 54 46
      For Monday 52 59 61 63
      Yep I'm going to hang my hat on that! Be true to yourself you love warmth and no snow so of course going to follow Wundeground,but with those numbers they are no better then Accuweather.

      Delete
    3. Dude, I think you're taking it too seriously. It will not break my heart if Wunderground is wrong. I have no money riding on this. Now, I wonder if we could develop an Intrade for weather predictions :)

      The point is to track the various models over the days and gauge the accuracy. That's all it is. Nothing sinister.

      We do agree that Accuweather is evil though.

      Delete
  59. Now for a more serious discussion. I am getting more and more concerned about this surface to 700mb ridge that continues to sit over the far eastern Pacific just southwest of HI all the way to west coast of the USA, and sometimes protruding as far east as CO. Something has to break this, until that happens the vortex we are seeing along the NW coast of the USA and to some degree in the GOA will not be able to drop south, that will essentially keep the northern tier of the US in a more zonal flow with the possibility of some quick moving cold snaps. It looks to me that the ski resorts in the CO area will be set up to get a big hurt this year. This will have a very large effect on the downstream area effecting this sub forum.

    I still think ARX will get more snow than MSP because I think it will have one major snowfall. For MSP I was going for 44". I started thinking in Oct that we would see one event in Nov that would produce a 6" event at MSP, with two more in Dec, putting us near normal for the season. But the last few days of Oct convinced me that we would not see a major accumulating snowfall in Nov, but one or two in Dec of around 6". So therefore my winter forecast issued late in OCT called for 38" But now it looks like the two 6" snowfall in December will not happen, so I am seriously thinking of lowering my seasonal snowfall totals to around 25-28." At MSP two straight winters of less the 30......" :cry:

    This was a post that I posted at americanwx.com..

    the direct link to the tread is here....http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/36904-long-term-disco/page__st__840#entry1889523

    ReplyDelete
  60. To be honest I do not understand all this hassle.
    Where you really thinking it was going to snow this winter? I mean seriously?
    2 6" inches snowfall in December? I mean come on.
    I was never in any doubt this winter would most likely end up with same or less snow than last one. I actually think we do have a great shot at breaking the least snowy record of 14.2.

    ReplyDelete
  61. A coach once said - "The attitude in this town sucks!" What a bunch of negative Nancies.

    By the way, after last year's predictions I'm not getting worked up over anyone's predictions this year!

    -----
    2011

    The pro's:
    Dave Dahl 75"
    Paul Huttner 50-60"
    Paul Douglas 50-55"
    Ian Leonard 60-70" (at least I think that is what he said during his winter special, although he didn't say I am forecasting that much he strongly hinted at it)
    ACCU 56"

    The am's

    Bill 43.1"
    Rigil 61"
    Randyinchamplin 71"

    ReplyDelete
  62. @Disco,this is why Wunderground is a joke! Going forecast for next Saturday 12/8 calls for: clear,chance of snow,fog overnight.chance of snow 20%,snow up to 2inches........are you kinding me what a joke.
    So what is it?is it clear?if its clear then how can you have snow AND fog?and those same clear skies are going to produce 2inches of snow,when there is only a 20% of it happening,not 50%,not snow likely,but 20%.
    Come on their Accuweather II!

    ReplyDelete
  63. In the meantime, nobody has really noted that the so-called pattern changer of next weekend is diminishing in intensity and increasing in warmth by each model run.
    By the time we get there it will probably be sunny and 50 degrees.

    ReplyDelete
  64. Never mind Disco,your ever-changing blink and it will be gone Wunderground has done it again,next Saturday night is simply clear and 14,no fog or snow,no 20% chance of anything or even 2 inches of your least favorite precip,BTW @bemaki,your Thursday snow is now 48 and rain on the proverbial Wunderground,their a joke,they change forecasts as fast as my grandma changes her dentures.I will stop going to their website now,I was just doing it for a good laugh anyway!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I in no way trust wunderground, or any forecaster. What happens, happens. If anything, I sure trust it more then accuweather.

      Just for fun, here is how I would rank forecasters:

      1. NWS
      2. WCCO
      3. KSTP
      4. KARE
      5. KMSP
      5. Novak weather, and other local mets who give it a shot that are credible (tie).
      6. intellicast
      7. wunderground
      8. forcea
      9. accuweather
      10. Myself and any pessimistic person who likes to predict sunny and 50 degress eight days ahead of time.

      Delete
    2. Interesting and fun assessment, Bemaki. Looks like you forgot Strib/Paul Douglas and The Weather Channel? I would agree that the NWS is the forecast you take with you when you're stuck on the proverbial desert island. From data that I've seen (nationally), TWC should be right up there. Also, Foreca is a real champ on the international front. I've not assessed their forecasts much for MSP purposes.

      Delete
  65. Also, not sure if you wanted to single out MPR as well?

    ReplyDelete
  66. Is Novak a meteorologist or just a weather guru / hobbyist ?

    ReplyDelete
  67. Here's how I would stack them:
    1. NWS
    2.MPR
    3.Star Tribune
    4.TWC
    5.KSTP
    6.WCCO
    7.KARE
    8.Randyinchamplin
    9.KMSP
    10.Intellicast
    11.Wunderground
    12.Novakweather
    13.Accuweather

    ReplyDelete
  68. @Disco so how do you think your research turned out........I would say one thing no one gave any credit on how tough low clouds and fog are to shake,no one thought we would get stuck in the 30's today.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Everybody was close for Saturday. NWS nailed Saturday all the way from last Monday.

      Nobody did well for Sunday. Euro's Thursday forecast was closest with 43 -- the actual high was 40. We've seen the "cloudy means cooler" botched forecast many times before. But Saturday was cloudy too, and the forecasts were correct. Not sure what to say about that.

      All I know is, we picked the right night for the Hollidazzle. Saturday evening was great downtown.

      Delete
  69. Well, here we go again. Snow lovers will once again be eying each and every model run as we watch for our first potential decent snowstorm of the season. Those wanting the storm will be shouting to the hills "bring it on" and "it's about time" while the not so optimistic will completely discount it and not give it a chance. "We're overdue" says one side, while the other says "never snow again in the winter". Ok, a little extreme I know. Just trying to have a little fun here. I would consider myself a realist here, so here's my untrained thoughts on it. Yes, I realize this is a week away but quite frankly I'm bored. Ok, first I will say why I actually have hope for this system. First, the GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and GEM all have this storm system. All vary in strength and exact location but all have a decent impact on the area. Second, the AO and NAO. They are near the neutral point now, but are forecast to take a dive well into the negative. When both go negative, you can expect the polar jet to sink on south, bringing the storm track and arctic air right along with it. Euro's solution shows exactly this, with a big shot of arctic air with it (by far the coldest of the season). The ECMWF lines up with what the NAO and AO are showing so this makes sense. There is also a snow pack in Canada, which just cools the air even more, creates a stronger temp contrast, and eventually a stronger storm. Now, why I'm not holding my breath. First it is a week away...much too far to say anything is certain. We all know how much models can change from run to run so I would consider it to be more of a "hey, heads up". Second, look at the pattern we have been stuck in for pretty much all of 2012. Seriously, think back on the year and overall how quiet it has been. Our dull pattern has seriously lasted pretty much since last winter. Patterns can be tough to break, but as I mentioned above with the AO and NAO, that change still appears to be on track. Third...all of the models have picked up on a storm or two for us before this fall, only to see it vanish into thin air. Fourth, this is the first this system has really shown up this well although the GFS has been trying to hint at it for a few days now but has changed it's thinking with each and every run. So, there you have it. Both sides of the coin there. The question is...heads or tails? There's no sense in trying to go into further details with it until next weekend gets closer. Personally I like to wait until it gets into the NAM's range (84 hours out) before starting to figure out more exact details with it. Again, I want to stress that I am NOT calling for a big snowstorm next weekend. This is merely a little heads up for people so the weather lovers can watch for it. I know a few won't believe me, but I still have faith that a white Christmas can happen this year. Ok I'm done with my novel now.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Great post/read Duane.........yes I'm bored as well,need some weather around these parts,more specifically winter weather.........I saw the storm you speak of but didn't. Want to say a word about it,so as to not jinx it or maybe it would disappear,but I see NWS commented about its potential in this mornings discussion...I believe a lot of us have our collective fingers crossed for this one!

      Delete
  70. Regarding Sunday's snow.

    Hutter posted a meteogram generated at 06Z. The model avg shows about 4in for Sunday. The current meteogram shows only about 1.3in.

    ReplyDelete
  71. New thread set up for the possible snow next Sunday.

    ReplyDelete