Thursday, November 8, 2018

Winter. Is. Back.

After a few teases, winter seems to be taking a major step forward. What say you about prospects for a snowy winter? What are your predictions?

Minor accumulations expected of snow predicted by the National Weather Service.

Saturday, April 14, 2018

Mid-April Blizzard: Historical or Hysterical?

OK, so clearly this storm, now officially a mid-April blizzard, is historical. But how mind-boggling is this? The baseball season is now two weeks old. And let's put to rest once and for all the ill-informed notion that big snowstorms never hit the Twin Cities.





The same storm affecting Minnesota looked like this as the low passed near New Mexico. Howling winds produced blowing and drifting -- just of dust, not snow.

Sunday, April 8, 2018

Will April Start Acting Like April?

Most of the natives, except perhaps not winter/snow lovers, are ready for winter to bid adieu. Might we see a rollercoaster before the month is over?

This is a commentary that your trust blogger had published in the Star Tribune 16 years ago. Perhaps it may yet ring true for 2018.


Saturday, March 31, 2018

Want Some February in Your April?

Most of our winter-weary populace is pining for spring, but a more winter-like pattern continues to persist, bringing near-record cold and several chances for amounts of snow that are significant by April standards.

April is noteworthy for being the "cruelest month," but April 2018 may be particularly cruel.

Sunday, March 18, 2018

Sunday, March 4, 2018

Twin Cities Schools Close Ahead of Storm - Appropriate for the Bold North?

As I write this, it's approximately 12 hours before rain is expected to change to snow in the Twin Cities. Also as of this writing, Twin Cities school are closing like dominoes. It started with St. Paul Public Schools; other systems have followed. Even St. Kate's, whose students wouldn't have the same childcare complications to consider, announced it will be closed.

We all know that this is in response to what happened in St. Paul during the storm in late January, when some students didn't get home until well after the dinner hour. Vigilance is obviously appropriate but it's shocking that so many schools aren't at least waiting until the morning to decide.

From this weather enthusiast's perspective, a heavy snow doesn't appear to be a lock, particularly given the unknowns regarding precipitation changeover. And when you factor in the relative warmth of the last several days and the fact that temperatures are forecast to merely flirt within a degree or two of the freezing mark (meaning chemicals should work well), it just doesn't feel like the potential for a crippling storm (such as what we experienced on Jan. 22) is high enough to merit school closing the night before the event.

The real question is what this means for the future. Despite climate change, it's still going to snow in the Twin Cities. Traffic congestion will only get worse as the area continues to grow. And liability concerns aren't going to go away any time soon. Is it possible that this scenario will play out more often in the future? Will we look back on the Jan. 22 storm as some sort of a tipping point when an abundance of caution surpassed the we-can-deal-with-this attitude on which so many Minnesotans pride themselves?

Put more succinctly: is this still the bold north?

Thursday, February 22, 2018

Snowiest Week of the Year?

Snow lovers in Minnesota can hardly contain themselves as two significant snowstorms, nearly back-to-back, appear headed for the Twin Cities. For some background on the possibilities, check out the video we did with Tom Novak. Happy storm watching!

Monday, February 5, 2018

Post Super Bowl Weather

Now that that big event is out of the way, the focus turns to weather for the last third of winter. What will it bring?

Thursday, January 25, 2018

Big Storm in the Rear Mirror, What's Ahead?

After the Twin Cities received its biggest snowfall in seven years in a storm that seemed to have slightly exceeded expectations, what's left to look forward to? Perhaps we focus on Super Bowl weather and the focus of the national media on the city's arctic reputation.

Friday, January 19, 2018

Probabilistic Thinking

As some of you know, I'm a big fan of probabilistic forecasting and the work of the Capital Weather Gang when it comes to snow forecasts. Here are the high, low and expected snowfall forecasts for MSP as of Friday morning for the Sunday/Monday event.





Did you miss our last video with Novak Weather?

Happy storm track monitoring!


Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Unlikely Possibilities?

A shocking Vikings victory has the local populace thinking all things are possible. Might this include a significant snowstorm for championship weekend?

Thursday, January 4, 2018

Heap of Cold, Ounce of Snow

As the calendar turned to 2018, snow aficionados were wondering if the cold would ever yield a reasonable snowfall. The watch -- and the wait -- continues.