Sunday, March 18, 2018

Does Winter Have Any Gas Left in the Tank?

Snow lovers in the Twin Cities are hoping that winter has one last gasp. Does it?

98 comments:

  1. Everything is pointing towards central and northern Minnesota for the "real event" for Friday/Saturday. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if the metro sees more snow this Monday night then next weekend!

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  2. Paul Douglas:
    A more significant period of rain coupled with 40's will accelerate snowmelt later this week, and models hint that a cold rain may end as wet snow next weekend!
    Translation :
    Too warm for an all out snowstorm, very wet and raw system that may end with flakes flying or coating colder surfaces in the metro.

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  3. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 18, 2018 at 9:01 PM

    KSTP saying this tonight for the Saturday wording: "SATURDAY…………………38 / 20 Cloudy and windy with rain and snow – heavy snow accumulation is possible in spots."

    I will take the "heavy snow accumlation possible in spots" language.

    This is getting exciting!! Bring it!!!!

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    1. Models have backed off of heavy snow thoughts and are leaning mostly mix or rain for weekend. Sorry to burst your bubble @PWL.

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  4. Novak jumping on board with the system on the weekend, what are thoughts on the system? Temp profiles still all over the place?

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  5. Too warm, metro sees a slushy coating to 1".

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  6. Dry easterly fetch will keep all the significant snows to the west and south of Minneapolis. All the models are showing it. Lucky if MSP gets an 1".

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  7. Winter storm watch posted 48 hours out..... they must know something the rest don't. PWL where you at? lets get it pumped up in here

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    1. That's a very tentative winter storm watch, did you actually read the discussion in it? No confidence what so ever in it, and I'm sure the very tight gradient is not lost on anyone either. Slightest shift south and poof!, there goes your winter storm watch. Dry air wins every time, which will erode how far east the accumulating snow gets.

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    2. Agreed re discussion. Just watched Ian L. on Ch 9 say he is surprised the watch is out since he is predicting the heavy stuff SW of the metro/we're on the cusp. Time will tell. Maybe if PWL dances a bunch, it will wobble and slam us?? "Bring It!!!!!"

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  8. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 21, 2018 at 5:24 PM

    I am dancing AND prancing this time!! This has the potential to be a big, big deal or a big, big nothing based on the tight gradient. My "shift to the northeast" dance has begun. Spring storms are the most fun and the most frustrating to watch unfold. I think a watch make sense as the conditions are there and it could happen. My dances work! Bring it!!!!

    Video? I would love to hear about the evolution of this storm and the possible storm for Monday. Two in a row, baby. #tireddancer

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    1. No model is showing accumulating snow on Monday for the metro area, just a raw cold rain!

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  9. Novak just posted a video on his FB feed..... expecting it to come here soon!

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  10. Put the snowblowers and shovels away! 00Z NAM and GFS both came in with virtually no metro core snow. The snow jackpot is southwest and southern Minnesota. Dry air is a bitch!!

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    1. Not everyone on this site lives in the core metro.

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    2. Well then I wasn't talking to you then, enjoy the snow. All others bring on spring!

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  11. Winter Storm Warning for 2-3 inches forecasted? Hmmm...

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  12. Buckle-up! 12z NAM coming in & it is utilizing a better sample of data now that the main energy is coming ashore the west coast.

    I'm confident that decent chunk of real estate in so. MN will receive 8"-12"+ of white concrete by noon Saturday. Gut feeling is that this will include portions of the MSP metro.

    Of course, the razor sharp SW to NE snow gradient will be a bear to 4cast. There will be a 12"+ snow gradient over a 50 mile distance! Needless to say, there will be some ticked off snow lovers AND folks who will be swearing at the skies after this one.

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  13. Seriously. The GFS is either going to be a hero or a zero. WTF?

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  14. @Novak, the other models are no where near supporting your forecast or the 12z NAM. Both the 12z Canadian and to a lesser degree the GFS have considerable less snow/qpf for metro and points south, in fact the Canadian doesn't produce an inch of snow in MSP. So go with the NAM sir, and either you will be the hero or the zero!

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  15. The Euro? What does the Euro say?
    That’s that matters, all other models spew random crap, the euro gives facts.

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    1. Euro took it on the chin in DC the other day. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/03/21/the-european-weather-model-just-had-its-virginia-moment-in-march-madness/?utm_term=.3556f2a2e5a8

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    2. Big bust also in New England.

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    3. 12Z EURO is similar to the GFS, showing 1-3" for the core!

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  16. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 22, 2018 at 6:35 PM

    I just have a very good feeling about this. Don't know why, but just do. Bring it!!!

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    1. PWL, I wish I shared your sentiment. Unfortunately, for the most part I feel that the metro will be odd man out. Perhaps the west metro will get an inch or two.

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    2. 18z NAM went with all other global models. MSP 2" or less. Their not feeling it either PWL. You and Novak are on an island on your own. I would think very little snow is a good thing, with the rain coming Sunday/Monday everything would be all gone!

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  17. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 22, 2018 at 9:42 PM

    How about the 00 NAM? Didn't that just come out at 9:30 pm?? If so, it has the west metro in almost the bullseye. 12+ inches of snow. Am I missing something??

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  18. the storm shifted west more actually, the East Metro and the airport now has zero with 2.5 west metro.

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  19. I don't believe I predicted 8"-12" for the core metro. What I'm saying is that there will be a 12"+ gradient across the MSP metro from SW to NE. In other words, Carver gets the concrete while Washington gets blanked. You can figure out what happens in between.

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  20. As far as my GFS comment is concerned, it is NOT showing any convective snows over so. MN. If this verifies, then it will be a hero. If convective snows develop over so. MN, like the other guidances show, then the GFS will be a zero.

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  21. Really crazy to see the GFS hanging out on its own. Props to Novak for putting out a forecast with incredibly tight gradients and a fairly narrow overall path. If he hits it within 50 miles either way that is very solid. Will be fun to watch.

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  22. The easterlies are going to present a huge problem. They have not only ruined winter forecast's , they have even fooled the the SPC at times over the last 6 years or so, when we have had a enhanced or even a moderate risk of severe weather 2 days out.

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  23. With all the 00Z model runs in I would be very surprised that anyone in the core and east-northeast from there measures an 1" or greater. These places in about 24 hours will be wondering what all the fuss is about.
    One major snowstorm this winter has not broken the trend that more often then not the core metro usually misses the major snowstorms, this one tomorrow will be no exception. Sorry snowlovers, as they say in sports-maybe next year or better luck next year.

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    1. This is an inaccurate assessment.
      if that were the case the metro snow total would be significantly below average; instead it is just 1.5" below (and some of that may be covered tomorrow).
      The thing that people keep missing is the belief (which I don't really know where it comes from) that the core metro is somewhat a very snowy place that gets hit by major snowstorms all the time.
      It is not. It never has, and it never will.

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    2. The metro more often then not misses the major snowstorms is an accurate statement. In the last ten years tell me how many 10+ storms MSP got hit with(to me major is 10+). I know MSP doesn't get hit with majors that often and that's my point, they are often close to MSP but wind up going north or south(like the one tonight)

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    3. Yes, what I am trying to say is that it should not be news. MSP has always missed on major snowstorms, it is not something new.
      if the 120 years average is about 45" snow per winter there must be a reason.

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    4. Unless decades-long data shows that MSP averages less snow than immediately surrounding areas, it's inaccurate to say MSP just misses storms that adjacent areas get. I think you're thinking subjectively rather than with objective data.

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    5. It may be an "accurate" statement, but it's not a meaningful statement. 10-inch snowfalls are rare in most places.

      It would be just as accurate to say that tornadoes miss MSP more often than not -- of course they do. Tornadoes are statistically rare.

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  24. Dry easterly fetchMarch 23, 2018 at 7:47 AM

    My NWS point forecast now says under 1 inch total for the "storm." And a high of 40 on Saturday. Hmm... I'm just north of the airport, not far from where the official measurements will be taken.

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  25. MSP remaining dry throughout this event would NOT be a surprise. In fact, latest 12z guidance continues the trend of moving the heavy snow band ever so slightly further SW. Even a subtle 20 miles is going to make a huge difference in the metro. The only area that I'm worried about is Carver & Scott counties. That is where the tightest gradient likely sets-up.

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    1. Good. Baseball starts in two weeks and we don't need any more flippin snow.

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    2. Snow and more cold is forecasted right thru the first week of April, now if we get any snow is a different situation. Like today so close yet so far away.

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  26. Please, snow lovers, don't jump off the bridge. Our chat with @NovakWeather https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9j3nTMc2No

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    1. I like your videos and all, but it won't be snowing in my neck of the woods(maybe a fleeting coating), so I'm choosing to stay away from viewing the agony, angst and disappointment of this non-core storm !

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    2. Understandable... though you're missing the chance to see our scintillating personalities. Haha....

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  27. Well even though MSP won't be getting any snow from this storm. GFS is showing lots of cold air into April so winter isn't done yet.

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    1. I'm sure Mother Nature will spin up a blizzard and tease MSP with a direct hit 5 days out, only to settle on a tight gradient snowfall again and leaving us with our classic 1-3" forecast!

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  28. Dry east wind wins every time....every time. Not even flurries in the forecast for MSP!

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  29. Anyone know how to find where the NWS grades itself?

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    1. Here is the link. They gave themselves above 80% on the early March storm that did not start until really late that first afternoon.https://www.weather.gov/mpx/winterstormgrades

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    2. sorry for the weird spacing.....

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    3. Thanks! Wonder if they grade events that really never materialized after a watch was issued. :-)

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    4. Or even an Advisory that went poof a few hours ago.

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    5. I think they only grade storms for locations that were under winter storm warnings

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  30. Came for the whining, was not disappointed. Thanks guys!

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    1. Ha! TOO funny. :)

      Sometimes I really love this BLOG.

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  31. No worries on grading for warned areas only because this system is busting big time in those areas as well. Its almost 1am and no snow has fallen in the warned areas or advisory areas of the MSP metro. East wind was totally underestimated!

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    1. Which planet do you live in?
      Widespread totals in excess of 10” inches are being reported in the warned areas.

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    2. Follow along young grasshopper, some warned areas got only 1-3". Don't disrespect again. Just follow the observations and you will see the answers.

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    3. Looking at this link it looks like the winter storm warning was placed exaclty where it was supposed to. It aligns perfectly with the areas that received 6+ inches.
      https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?sid=mpx

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    4. I'll give you two cities, Wilmar(Kandiyhoi county) and Glencoe(McLeod county).....sat in a winter storm warning throughout the entire event. I won't do all the work for you, but go ahead and tell me how much more snow they needed to reach the warning level criteria?

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    5. @Dry east wind, I got this one. They needed 6" because neither got any snow. This storm played havoc on many meteorologists, everytime I looked the watches/advisories/warnings kept getting trimmed back to the south and east, they couldn't keep up and then in the end I think they just gave up and figured let's see how things shake out, but yeah I agree with you some very big misses for sure!

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  32. Do I need vision correction of the GFS 1st week of April looks like taken from January?
    Just a quirk or something to it in terms of teleconnection indices, etc?

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    1. Quite a rare setup to have prolonged cold in late March to early April that's for sure.

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  33. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 25, 2018 at 8:15 PM

    Are you talking about temperatures or SNOW?? The NWS discussion talks about the possibility of a bigger system for Easter weekend! Bring it! Bunnies and Easter!!

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  34. Well, the NWS graded themselves an "F" on the weekend storm: https://www.weather.gov/mpx/23Mar2018grade

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    1. Totally onboard with the 59% scoring, storm played havoc with their going forecast. They even acknowledged it in their summary. That's what I was alluding to with my remarks during/after the storm.

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  35. Anonymous @ 03/25 4:20 pm. Your right when asking about teleconnections. Current teleconnections forecast through the first weak of April suggest a cold pattern. The PNA (Pacific North American Index) is progged to be strongly negative which means a trough in the western US, and a strong one at that. That would normally suggest that a strong ridge should develop over the central US.

    However if we look further to the Northwest somewhere near the Gulf of Alaska, we see the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is also progged to go strongly negative. That correlates to a strong area of high pressure with a clockwise spin. This strong clock wise spin pulls cold air down from the NW and flatens out any ridging that wants to build in from the SW as the -PNA would indicate. The result is that we get stuck in a NW flow aloft. Like a graph that was shown the other day from KMPX, spring is on break.

    https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html

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  36. Who says when given the choice significant snowstorms miss MSP proper! Just this week one storm just south and now tomorrow just north. And don't try to sell me on the one hit we had this year, it didn't break the trend!

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    1. Because the real estate of where a storm can go is of several degrees of magnitude larger compared to the real estate of the Twin Cities, and so it is just a matter of pure probabilitilies.
      It is the same idea of thunderstorms or severe weather: chances of tornados in MN this year: 100%
      chances a given area will be hit: very low.
      Snowstorms are larger but still not large enough as compared to the area that they could hit.
      And it will be always more likely that a storm will miss you rather than hit you.

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  37. The system is trending so much more to the north and west but the metro would be warm enough for rain instead of snow anyway.
    So better to be dry-slotted.

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  38. System now looks to be trending further south again.

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  39. GFS shows direct hit for Metro.. Game on!

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    1. Um no game on! NWS says less then inch. And there is no Advisory or warning or anything.
      GFS=FAKE NEWS

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    2. HRRR is starting to lean with Gfs now.

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  40. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 30, 2018 at 7:05 PM

    Bring it! Maybe the southern shift will actually benefit us this time! Shift baby! Bring it!

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  41. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 30, 2018 at 8:30 PM

    Novak-You have snow total map you can share on Twitter? Or discuss here? Would love to see it. Bring it!!

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  42. Not looking good for anyone near Duluth, looking like a big bust up there.

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  43. Holy cow .....anyone seeing this radar...looks like heavy snow coming right into the core!

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  44. Sam, I was just out in it when you posted your last comment, my current thinking is that Hen. county needs to be added to the winter advisory. However it wouldn't surprise me to see northern Hen. ending up with warning criteria snowfall.

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  45. Temp dropped to 31 with heavy snow currently in St Louis Park with a solid coating on everything. If this keeps up a good bust could be on our hands. NWS just upped the point forecast to 2-4 tonight.

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  46. WOW.... With the way the models are looking tonight, this could easily go down as a top 10 April as far as snowfall, not saying it will happen at MSP but a new record April snowfall is possible somewhere is Minnesota.

    https://files.dnr.state.mn.us/natural_resources/climate/twin_cities/april_msp_rank.html

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    1. Ramsey and Henn. counties now in advisory

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  47. Warning in Washington county now!

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  48. NWS should earn a dorky grade again on this one in my opinion. That's a whole lotta white out there in St. Louis Park. Let the shoveling begin. I like Novak's weather chart, too, that had 'low' impact for the metro, but his annotation of 'no need to panic; just pay attention' sure paid off on this one. Yes, pay attention. Mother Nature has her own plan. Hope you got some good snow, PWL, and hope Monday's 2 to 4 inches for the metro pans out, too. We may as well 'go for it' before the winter season ends. Off I go to get ready for some shoveling. Have a good holiday weekend, fellow weather enthusiasts.

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  49. A solid surprise 4 inches here in Plymouth! The snow is like concrete despite temps in the mid-20's. Be careful shoveling. Take it slow. Looking forward to winter's final push over the next couple of weeks. Then it's time for sunny and 70 until what will hopefully be an even better winter (more snow) next season! I heard that the Twins opener might be the coldest or at least one of the coldest ever this Wednesday. That's some chilly baseball! Have a safe holiday weekend everybody!

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  50. Ooopps, Twins Opener is Thursday, not Wednesday!

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  51. Solid 4" here in Golden Valley as well. That was some heavy wet snow, my back feels it. And I hear we are not done yet. You do you Mother Nature!

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  52. We aren't out of the woods yet. Another storm on Tuesday!

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  53. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 31, 2018 at 5:51 PM

    1-3, 1-3, 1-3. Add that up and we have 3-9 baby! But I want more in a shorter timeframe. Here’s hopin!! It may be April but if we can get a big one, bring it! Any thoughts on the NWS discussion that seems to be saying the dynamics won’t come together for a huge one but that all the dynamics are in place??

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    1. Well the GFS 12Z is trending significant for Mon-Tues they 8-12" for the entire metro!

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  54. Don't look now but a week from tomorrow another impressive snowstorm is lurking for Minnesota, it's coming up on many models.

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  55. What is amazing is all this cold air. It’s April tomorrow and we are seeing February like lows. We need a warm up - enough of winter!

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    1. It is quite amazing, and looking towards Friday's highs if we get as much snow as the gfs model believes. We will crush any april records for record low highs and lows in general.

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  56. Just started a new thread for February.... I mean April.

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