Saturday, March 31, 2018

Want Some February in Your April?

Most of our winter-weary populace is pining for spring, but a more winter-like pattern continues to persist, bringing near-record cold and several chances for amounts of snow that are significant by April standards.

April is noteworthy for being the "cruelest month," but April 2018 may be particularly cruel.

75 comments:

  1. We should start a pool on how many Twins home games will be postponed. They have games here on Thursday and Saturday. Right now both days are forecast to have highs in the 30s.

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    1. Is there some MLB protocol that is too cold to play baseball? If the weather isn't inclement I say play on!

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    2. Lots of games are postponed due to cold. Today's White Sox / Royals game won't happen.

      I think the issue is that nobody would go to the game, and they wouldn't sell any concessions.

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    3. I don't think they will postpone the opener. Here is a fun article about 'which opening days have been coldest' and it looks like a 35 (above) predicted high on Thursday. https://www.twinkietown.com/2014/1/8/5287884/coldest-games-in-minnesota-twins-history

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  2. 18Z NAM slipped south a bit....metro core in bullseye with 10-12". Bit aggressive but it is inline with GFS and Canadian thinking of the main snow being more southern and eastern Minnesota then central MN, they both show about 5-8" snow.

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  3. Question: why aren't there any watches out? It looks like a lot of inches are possible starting tomorrow and going for two days? It looks like WWA territory or more. I must be missing something, novice that I am.

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    1. I was just going to say the same thing....over the next 48 hours they are forecasting some areas in the CWA 6-9". But there are no headlines anywhere, there are watches up in central Wisconsin but no collaboration with the NWS MSP. I read their discussion but there should be some headlines somewhere, I would think a watch would be easiest because you can upgrade or downgrade from there.They are being very conservative I believe because the last two storms didn't work out so great.


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    2. Jonathan Y on KSTP says in 26 years here, he hasn't seen an April like this. He also spoke of a big snow dump next weekend and plenty of opportunities to break the record low temps! Now I'm thinking metro schools may declare a snow day this Tuesday the way he laid out the forecast. Thanks for the insight, bigdaddy. At least PWL can dance, dance, dance. And Novak's map on FB shows us in a definite swath of 'anticipate problems.'

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    3. I would think it would take a special set of circumstances to declare a snow day in April, Tuesday isn't it! It would need to be some intense snowfall rates of like 2" an hour with snow covered roads. April brings a lot of slushy/wet roads when it snows, plus MNDOT is usually on the ball, after Friday nights snow the roads were all wet by 8-9am

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  4. "Jonathan Y on KSTP says in 26 years here, he hasn't seen an April like this."

    Was he on vacation all of April 2013? We got 17.9 inches that month.

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    1. HA HA. That is a good one. Maybe he was on sabbatical that month and year. Thanks for the historical context. Any ideas on why there are no advisories or watches in place? I hope we don't get 17.9 inches of snow this April. :+( PWL would sure be happy, though.

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    2. Ha! We'll look for you at the comedy club.

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  5. Gosh the weather forecasters vary on their totals. From "glancing blow" to "6-8 and isolated 10 inch totals" in the metro. At least there is now a 'special weather statement' on NOAA's site that says advisories will be issued later today plus the proverbial "hazardous weather outlook"...... Keith M says it'll be heavy, wet and "compressed"... game on, Mother Nature/Old Man Winter.

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  6. Watch posted for all of southern MN, MSP core left out again

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  7. It's interesting to see the point forecast for the SW Metro jumping up this morning. Last night, the forecast for today, tonight, and Tuesday was 1-3",1-3", 1-3" (3-9" total)

    Now the forecast for today, tonight, and Tuesday says 1-3", 2-4", and 3-5" (7-12" total)

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    1. Yup, even in the north metro point totals are totaling 6-12 inches. At this point I am more inclined to go with the lower totals up here as most models, as of this morning, keep the heavier stuff just on the southern edge of the cities. The one nice thing about this system is that there does not appear to be a razor-sharp gradient splitting the metro.

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  8. If we do indeed have a low of 8 on Wednesday morning, it will be the first time since 1997 that we hit single-digits in April. And only the eighth time since 1891.

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  9. So much for global warming.

    Just kidding. I'm not that stupid.

    Bring it.

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    1. Several of my wife's uncles made that remark at Easter dinner yesterday.

      I guess they missed the part about GLOBAL.

      I said nothing. You just can't get into it with these people.

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  10. If most of the snow falls during daylight, do not be surprised if most of those totals will not be achieved in terms of actual accumulation.
    it is very hard (virtually impossible) for snow to accumulate on roads in April unless you get extreme snow rates which does not seem to be the case for the core metro.

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    1. If you mean roads, sure. Everywhere else snow is already accumulating and things are just starting.

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  11. "Finally" a winter weather advisory St. Louis Park thru 1 a.m. Wed, Apr 4: 6-11 inches. 6-13 for Plymouth, so PWL must be dancing like crazy.

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  12. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 2, 2018 at 2:38 PM

    Dancing!! Let’s break some records!! Bring it!!!

    (Hoping for not too much more of a southwest shift!!)

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  13. PWL I am in denial. It actually looks like 7”+ for the core metro...in April. I keep thinking this thing will bust but it’s hanging in there. Amazing. Trading my golf clubs in for skis.

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    1. Looks like the latest models have actually pushed the heavy snow a tad further north as well.

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  14. What’s falling now is not the main event, correct?

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    1. Correct. According to most t.v. mets the main event is later tonight/most of tomorrow through late afternoon and/or early evening.... at least as of 5 p.m. newscasts it was. Still 4-8 inches predicted for St. Louis Park.

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  15. Right at 3am a winter storm warning was put into effect for the core metro with 6-9" of additional snowfall on top of what you received yesterday with localized areas near 11".
    Also currently snowing moderately in St. Louis Park...suffice to say we will easily blow away the 2.5" April snowfall average today.
    Plus with how cold it will get this snow will have some staying power well into next week with the possibility of even more snow on Sunday!

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    1. Saw we were upgraded too! Let's go!

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  16. Westonka School District closed.... will others follow?! Who gets the proverbial egg on their face today?

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    1. I have son in Northfield school district and son in Faribault district, both closed today. Can't remember last April snow day.

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    2. Lakeville/Burnsville now closed. Waiting on more metro area schools. Yes, these April monsters probably do not occur that often. I'm too old to remember. :+) Stay safe.

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    3. April 2013

      April 2013

      April 2013

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  17. Were approaching over 150 school closings(not much in the core), hard to have egg on your face with that many closings, but I guess the ones that don't close are taking a risk, we shall see how it plays out.

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  18. St Paul Public is in spring break this week so no egg for them this time!

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  19. Heaviest snow should be falling over the next 4 hours. It will be interesting to see what things look like for the PM commute.

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  20. Snow rates are just too light to create problems in April.
    Roads are turning wet, as you would expect with 28-29 degrees at this time of the year, so I do not think the PM commute will be an issue at all.
    I actually do not even think warning criteria accumulations will be verified in the core metro.
    We will have to watch the wave currently over South Dakota and see if it keeps the same intensity as it moved east.

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  21. A large area of moderate/heavy snow has developed west of the metro and is moving east.

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  22. The heaviest snow right now appears to be going just north of Hennepin County and heading east northeast. Did the storm shift north or is it just developing?

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  23. Snow is now melting faster than its accumulating in Owatonna

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    1. Of course, it is April 3rd and it's noon.
      Solar radiation just too strong to overcome with these snow rates.

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  24. 2 day snow total so far is around 6 inches in Woodbury.

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  25. Are we now guaranteed to finish above average for the entire snow season at MSP?

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    1. @Joel Fischer, yes as of noon we exceeded the 54" yearly average.
      Also it's coming down hard in Golden Valley, all surfaces covered!

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    2. Considering how this snow season started, that's quite the achievement. It can stop now.

      I'm ready for green grass.

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    3. Well get ready for more white Joel, Sunday looks to be potentially significant as well!

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  26. Lightning and thunder snow in Eagan

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  27. It would appear this band of snow isn't leaving soon.

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  28. Jonathan Yuhas at KSTP already calling for 4+" on Sunday into Monday!

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    1. Wow, that seems pretty early/aggressive, particularly given that'll be a week into April.

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  29. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 3, 2018 at 7:53 PM

    I think we have about 8 inches in Plymouth. Very pretty and just awesome April snow. I am hoping for one last snowstorm on Sunday/Monday and break some kind of records!! Bring it!!

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  30. 7” in south maplewood

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  31. PWL, I measured 8.5 inches at my place in Plymouth about an hour ago.

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  32. 2 day snow total in Woodbury around 8-9 inches, hard to tell exactly due to some drifting/compacting.

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  33. I live 7 miles due east of Stillwater. My house/land is heavily wooded and sees very little sun to melt any snow as it falls. I'm easily at least ten inches for the last two days.

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  34. 8.5" two day total in Golden Valley....impressive! The cold is even more impressive. Then more snow...I really don't see temperatures getting to average looking out 2 weeks, we will loss this arctic air and get milder but still below average 40's to 50 as we near mid-April.

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  35. And the "warm-up" at the end of next week looks less impressive with every forecast update.

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  36. Latest GFS shows the potential for 2-3 more snow storms over the next week or so. yikes

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  37. Have decided to stay in Cancun.

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  38. summer sucks! I hope the cold lingers and the snow continues... payback for the past several busted Winters

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  39. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 5, 2018 at 7:14 PM

    Let’s go here! Let the weekend snow analysis talk begin! 4 or more inches. Bring it!!

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    1. Haven't you had enough? It has snowed for 6 consecutive months now(though Nov/Dec were pretty tame) and have exceeded our annual average. Can we have our spring now!!

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    2. Naw, let PWL have his snow. After all, it can snow until May. We will be happy if it warms up soon. Novak just posted on FB that we may go from snow this weekend to severe weather later next week. In 1965 we had some cold temp records, and then in May the tornado outbreak, so I prefer the cold/snow for now.

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  40. From this afternoon's NWS discussion page: (Looks like Sunday won't be the last time we get snow), read on....

    Following this system, we see another wave moving across the west
    over the northern plains. The upper flow pattern becomes a bit
    flatter allowing a little warming out ahead of this system on
    Wednesday/Thursday. We could see temperatures warm through the
    40s. This would make this a rain changing to wet snow scenario if
    current trends hold true.

    Another system affects the area late next week. Both the GFS and
    ECMWF drive the western CONUS trough energy east over the central
    US into next weekend. This continues to look very dynamic as it
    moves through. Thunder may be a threat at least for a portion of
    the area as a potent surface low is progged to lift northeast
    across the cwa. Rain to snow looks like the scenario for this system as well. Stay tuned.

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  41. Well, looking ahead after next weeks storm it looks to smack us in the face with even more cold air.

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  42. Ruh-roh Raggy: (Does anyone know if Scooby liked snow?) ....anyhow read on.....NWS morning discussion:

    For the end of the week, the GFS/ECMWF continue to show a significant
    trough coming out of the Rockies and into the Plains. Both models
    show strong cyclogenesis occurring over the Plains, with that low
    lifting north toward the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes. There`s still
    a high degree of spread with this system, though the presence of a
    cold arctic high over the Canadian prairies will provide ample cold
    air for significant wintry precipitation on the cold side of the
    low, while a severe weather outbreak looks likely in it`s warm
    sector. For us, we will not have to worry about the severe weather
    part, but we could definitely be in line for the winter weather
    part depending on its eventual track.

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  43. The low temperatures so far this month between the NWS location in Chanhassen and the MSP airport have had spreads as much as 7 degrees!

    http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=MPX&sid=msp&pil=CF6&recent=&specdate=2018-04-30+11%3A11%3A11

    http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=MPX&sid=mpx&pil=CF6&recent=&specdate=2018-04-30+11%3A11%3A11

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  44. Only the 26-degree reading at midnight will save today from being one of the coldest April day of all time.

    In fact, 23 is the average high for mid-January, and really the coldest average high of the year.

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  45. Plymouth Weather LoverApril 6, 2018 at 6:30 PM

    Now my focus is on next Friday/Saturday! Huge system and it is amazing that it could still be cold enough for large snowstorm. Huge! Bring it!!!!

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    1. Strictly rain event for the metro @PWL. Come on you know better Huge/Large snowstorms are not attracted to the metro, this will be no different as the models are already trending away from snow in MSP. Heavy rain ending with a coating of flurries looks like the good bet here!

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    2. Dude, seriously, shut it. We got, what, five - six inches last weekend?

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    3. He said large/huge!(actually MSP got 9", not 5/6")Why don't you ask PWL what he means by large/huge. I take it as 12-24", that's large/huge in my book!

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