Sunday, January 30, 2011

Forecasts Trending Whiter as Late-January Snowstorm Approaches

Forecast snow totals continued to grow through the day Sunday. For a storm that never even made it onto the radar of many forecasters' extended outlooks as recently as Thursday night, this one appears to be growing into a modest headliner. FOX and KSTP are at the top of the snow range for this storm with forecasts of 5-7 inches and 5-8 inches, respectively. All other weather outlets are in the 3-6 and 4-6 range.


As of 6 p.m. on Sunday night, these were the final pre-storm forecasts. Look for weathercaster grades on this storm to appear some time later in the day on Tuesday.

WCCO: 3 to 6 inches
KSTP: 5 to 8 inches
FOX: 5 to 7 inches
KARE: 3 to 6 inches
Strib: 3 to 6 inches
NWS: 4 to 6 inches
MPR: 3 to 6 inches

Follow TMF on Twitter and Facebook. The history of this forecast may be found here.

Saturday, January 29, 2011

February Eve Flakes Seen Likely by Local Weathercasters

Sunday morning update:
KARE has now provided specifics for their snow accumulation forecast, calling for a 2 to 5-inch snowfall. KSTP has increased forecast totals to 3 to 6 inches from 2 to 4 inches. The NWS has issued a winter weather advisory.

Accumulating snow continues to be in cards for the last day of January according to the aggregate of the Twin Cities' finest meteorologists. As of mid-evening on Saturday, the range of predictions is generally between 2 and 6 inches. Here are the latest forecasts:

"What?? More snow? You kiddin' me?" (courtesy Fuzzy Mutt Photos)
WCCO: 2 to 6 inches, heaviest south
KSTP: 2 to 4 inches
FOX: 3-5 inches per TV news (2-4 inches per tweet)
KARE: "At least a few inches"
Strib: 3 to 6 inches
NWS: 4 to 6 inches

Like us (or love us, if you're feeling particularly emotional) on Facebook. Follow us, but please don't stalk us, on Twitter. You can also view a running progression of weather forecasts by individual weather outlet here.

Game On! Forecasters See Possibility of Accumulating Snow for Monday

After the threat of Monday snow seemed largely dead as of Thursday night (with several weather outlets not including any mention of snow), the possibility came back during the day on Friday. As of late Friday night, there was consensus that at least some snow is on the way for Monday. Here's the latest forecast summary for late Sunday night into Monday as of late Friday night except otherwise noted:

WCCO:  Could be a few inches; 3-4 in southern MN
KSTP: One or two inches could fall for Monday morning commute.  Most snow in southern MN: Overall forecast details for Monday not clear. (information as of 6 p.m.)
FOX: Chance of 1-3 inches Monday afternoon (information as of 5 p.m.)
KARE: Light snow with possible light accumulations
Strib: 2-5 inches
NWS: 50 percent chance of snow

More details regarding the progressive forecasts of all weather outlets for this storm can be found here.

A Big Thank You to Ian Leonard from FOX9

A big thanks goes out to Ian Leonard for inviting The Minnesota Forecaster out to the Fox 9 Weather Center to get a firsthand look at how he assembles a forecast and presents it to the public. It was very enlightening and we hope to share more about the visit in the coming days, perhaps as part of a "Get to Know Your Weathercaster" series.

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

S'no Excitement Here ...

Seems we're in the dog days of winter and there's not a lot of interesting weather forecasts for TMF to analyze. If you want to see how a group of super professional Washington, DC, weather prognosticators are handling this afternoon's forecast thundersnowstorm there, take a look here. They leave no stone unturned.

Saturday, January 22, 2011

Grades and More Grades

TMF finally had a chance to update grades for the last three events:

1. Snow event of Jan. 17 - details here
2. 7-Day Outlook Sample - details here
3. "Coldest night of the year" forecasts - details here

Overall, cumulative grades to date can be found here

A nighttime shot of the super fluffy snow we've been getting
So what's the upshot of all this? KARE seems to be on a roll, with three consecutive As. However, it's important to note that they benefited by not participating in the 7-day outlook test (KARE does not provide forecasts beyond 5 days unless the next weekend represents days 6 and 7). Most weather outlets did not perform well in the 7-day outlook (with the notable exception of KSTP) and so KARE did not have to absorb a likely low grade for that event.

At this point, the weathercasters are bunched together with middling grades -- all have a C or C+ at this juncture.

Thursday, January 20, 2011

How Cold Will She Go?

Photo courtesy of Fuzzy Mutt Photos
There's a fair amount of variability in the forecast for tonight's low temperature, thought by most to be the coldest night of winter so far, and maybe for the whole winter. Here's where the gaggle of forecasters sits as of 7 p.m. Thursday night (and hopefully a forecast guess from TMF is not TMI):

WCCO: -13
KSTP: -15
FOX: -19
KARE: -14
NWS: -17
Star Tribune: -15
MPR: -21
TMF: -11

What's your guess as to how low it will go? Check the poll at the right.

A full scorecard of the last several days' forecasts for this not-really-epic cold event may be found here: TMF is on Facebook and Twitter.

The 7-Day Outlook Test: Who Can You Trust?

The seven-day outlook... that spread of numbers that every forecast seems to end with. How much stock can you put into it? And which weathercaster did the best in our limited sample?

TMF studied the progressive 7-day forecasts for four consecutive days in January (Jan. 16-19). In other words, if you wanted to know how the weather would be on Jan. 16, how much could you trust what was forecast seven days earlier on Jan. 9? And how much more accurate might the forecast for Jan. 16 be on Jan. 10, six days in advance of the big day. And so on until you got within five, four, three, two and one day(s) until Jan. 16. This same 7-day process was extended to three other days (Jan. 17-19) so that four days' extended outlook could be studied.

The graph below depicts the results. The vertical axis represents the number of degrees difference between the forecast temperature and the actual temperature. The horizontal axis represents the number of days into the 7-day outlook. As you would expect if the weather prognosticators are doing their job, the variance between actual and forecast temperature would go down as forecasts were refined as the day being forecast got closer.


So what does the data mean?
For the period studied, the Star Tribune's Paul Douglas was the most inaccurate from seven days out. On Jan. 9, Douglas predicted the high temperature for Jan. 16 would be 1 above. The actual high temperature for Jan. 16 was 15, meaning a 14-degree variance. The forecast made on Jan.10 for Jan. 17 was 25 degrees off (he predicted a high of zero; the actual high temperature was 25). In total for the four days, Douglas was 7-day advance prediction was off by an average of 15 degrees. In contrast, the best 7-day advance prediction was by KSTP, which was off by an average of 6 degrees.

The data suggests that when it's within four days of the day that interests you, the variance among forecasters is rather small; it wouldn't much matter whose forecast you followed. There was a two-degree spread in the forecaster variance at day 4 of the 7-day outlook. However, this is not to say that forecasters were particularly accurate at predicting the actual temperature at that juncture; only that as a group, the forecasters were forecasting very similarly. Got it? There will be a test on the material.

Two of the more interesting items to note: First, the vast majority of variance in forecast vs. actual temperatures were negative, meaning that all forecasters had a strong tendency to predict colder temperatures than what actually occurred. Secondly, KARE's extended forecasts are only five days rather than the seven days provided by most outlets. The data suggests that this is a prudent philosophy!

If the graph makes you hungry to see the nitty gritty details that fed the analysis, you may view them here.



Monday, January 17, 2011

It Got Our Goat

We came across this item on the KARE11 website this evening (and yes, we're talking about the weather and not the woman in blue):


Now, wouldn't the headline Twin Cities Closing In on Snowfall Record suggest that the Twin Cities are quite close to breaking the record, on the precipitation precipice as it were? In reality, the 59.5 inches is more than 30 inches short of the record! Yea, it's only mid-January, but the headline suggests it's a mere matter of time, doncha think? Here at TMF, we don't like any comments about the weather that are misleading.

Are we out of line? What do you think?

Grades for MLK Birthday Snow

By the time most people woke up on Monday, the snow was already gone. They didn't miss much -- 1.3 inches to be exact. A note on grading: for small "clipper" systems like the past few, grading may seem harsh. After all, a forecast for 3 inches is only 1.7 inches over an actual total of 1.3 inches. However, at those small amounts, it's still a forecast for twice as much as snow as actually fell. And, more to the point, a 3-inch storm creates considerably more havoc than a 1.3-inch storm. Seem tough? There's no crying in weather forecasting. Herewith, the grades for a yawner of a storm.

WCCO: B Held on to a 2-4 inch forecast through Sunday morning.
KSTP: C+ Although there was mention that the snowfall projection might drop to 1 to 3 inches on Saturday night, they maintained 2-4 inches through Sunday night.
FOX: B Generally, a similar forecast to WCCO's.
KARE: A Played it close to the chest, holding off on specific snow estimates until Sunday morning. But when they did, they nailed it.
Star Tribune: A Right on from the start. If only they were as good with their long-range forecast for the coming cold wave.
NWS: B In the same boat as WCCO and FOX.

If you'd like to see the forecasts leading up to this early morning's snow -- or just need some help with  insomnia -- click here.

Sunday, January 16, 2011

MLK Day Snow


Hours before another snowfall is scheduled to begin to whiten up the white, there is a small amount of range in the forecast. On the high end, KSTP is sticking to a 2-4 inch forecast, an estimate it’s maintained without change since Friday night. Most other outlets, which are predominantly in the 1-3 inch range, have decreased their snow estimates over the last 24 hours.

Here are the latest projections as of late Sunday night. For progressive forecasts on the coming snow event, click here.

WCCO: 1-3 inches
KSTP: 2-4 inches
FOX: 1-3 inches
KARE: Under 2 inches
Star Tribune: ½ to 2 inches
NWS: Around 2 inches

How accurate have the forecasters been with temperatures over the last week? Find out in our next post. Remember to follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

 

Saturday, January 15, 2011

Prediction of a Cold Wave


These are excerpted comments from the Paul Douglas on Weather blog that appears online in the Star Tribune. We’ve excerpted his comments relating to a cold wave that he began to predict two weeks ago. Particularly notable phrases include “potentially dangerous cold,” “possible all-time records for January cold,” and “lows to -25 in the metro (and colder in the suburbs).” As of January 15, Paul’s forecast highs for Jan. 16-20 are 8, 18, 5, 17 and 9. The coldest overnight temperature forecast during the period is -3.

January 5, 2011 - 9:41 AM
Long-range models hinting at a few subzero daytime highs (even for the metro area) between January 16-20, possibly the coldest stretch of the entire winter.

Coldest Of The Winter? On Tuesday, January 18, we could be looking at 2-3 days in a row of subzero highs, even in the immediate Twin Cities metro, with nighttime lows dipping into the -10 to -20 F. range.

Last update: January 5, 2011 - 10:59 PM
Coldest Cold Front of the Winter? The GFS model is consistently printing out a very cold spell during the third week of January, especially Jan. 15 - 19. A few days with highs below zero are possible during that period, even in the metro area. Still early - but I have a hunch this will wind up being colder than early December, possibly the coldest of the winter.

Coldest air may come between January 16-21, a few subzero days with nighttime lows as cold as -20 to -25F around the metro, some -40s possible up north.

What may wind up being a newsworthy cold wave, a potentially dangerous 3-4 day episode of Siberian air, is shaping up for the 3rd week of January, between the 17th and 21st, give or take. Models are fairly consistent, pulling polar air into Minnesota. The good news: it may be a relatively quick shot of brutally cold air, 3-5 days. The bad news: even the metro may experience a few days of subzero highs (-3 to -8 F) with nighttime lows in the -25 F. range. Still time to call your travel agent or check out those low-low fares on Expedia.com!

This time next week a plowable snowfall is possible, followed by what MAY be the coldest smack since Jan. 2004 (-24 in the metro). Ouch.

Last update: January 6, 2011 - 10:46 PM
Coldest Air of Winter 8-10 Days Away?
Coldest air of the winter possible January 17-20, subzero highs possible for 2+ days, nighttime lows may dip to -20 in the suburbs. The good news: the latest guidance is hinting that this Arctic outbreak will be relatively brief.

Coldest Air Of The Winter? It's coming. Here is raw GFS guidance for the third week of January. The good news: it won't last long, maybe 3 or 4 days, tops. The bad news: we will probably experience 2 or 3 subzero "highs", afternoon temperatures in the -3 to -8 F. range (in the metro) with nighttime lows dipping as low as -20 to -25 F. I wouldn't be suprised to see some -40 to -45 F. lows up north by January 18th or 19th. Time to call your travel agent or hop on-line and find a good fare to....anywhere. My gut: Jan. 17-21 will be the coldest spell of the entire winter, possible record territory.

January 7, 2011 - 9:22 PM
Next Weekend's Arctic Blast - Could be Coldest of Season!

January 10, 2011 - 9:57 AM
Turning colder over the weekend, potential for subzero highs over much of Minnesota by Sunday.

Bitter Blast - Coldest of Winter? Last week at this time a number of people thought I was mad predicting a bitter outbreak more than 2 weeks away. But we're still on track for a news-worthy bout of Siberian air, best chance of subzero weather from the 20th through the 25th of January. We may still experience 3 or 4 days of subzero highs in the metro (-3 to -8 F. range) with nighttime lows dipping to -25, even colder in the outlying suburbs. I'm still expecting a rash of -40s up north, maybe a -50 up at Embarrass and Tower, the twin cities of cold. Yes, we may set a few all-time records for January cold later this month. Give it about a week and a half and everyone will be griping...

January 11, 2011 - 3:48 PM
Highs may not climb above zero Sunday and next Monday, even in the metro area. Lows in the -8 to -15 range possible.

January 15, 2011 - 12:11 AM
Next week's cold wave has been neutered; each successive computer run cuts back on the severity of the polar outbreak - maybe 2 or 3 nights below zero, but hardly record-breaking.

Forecasters Tracking Meatier Clipper for Sunday Night/Monday

Seems like all these "clippers" are looking the same ... but our local forecasting futurists are looking at one that may be a little bigger than the last few bouts of snow. As of Friday night, all weather outlets are predicting a strong likelihood of snow by Monday morning (in time for the morning rush hour). KSTP and Fox are noting the possibility of 2-4 inches and 2-5 inches, respectively, whereas others have not assigned any snowfall potential yet. Here's the snow forecast recap as of Friday night:

WCCO: Snow, no amounts given
KSTP: Snow, 2-4 inches possible
FOX: Snow, 2-5 inches possible
KARE: Snow likely, no amounts given
NWS: 1 inch late Sunday night; "light accumulations" Monday
Strib: 1-2 inches

Find on us on Facebook and Twitter for pithy, sometimes witty, updates.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Attack of the Numbers: Early Returns on the Cold Wave Forecasts

Snowfall on Thursday afternoon.
(Very) early returns on the analysis of forecaster efforts to predict the coming cold wave are somewhat interesting. The progressive analysis shows the high temperatures for a future date as they are predicted for several days in advance. If that doesn't make sense, check the analysis and it might make more sense. Two things that jump out at me: 1) Paul Douglas's forecast numbers are consistently to the extreme and change considerably with each day, and 2) WCCO, Fox and the National Weather Service have been the most consistent from day to day. After the cold wave comes and goes, we'll do a grading of weathercasters' ability to predict temperatures up to seven days in advance.

And to the Naysayers ... We've Become "A" Sayers -- Grades Are Out

If the weather forecasters were 10-year-olds they'd be getting  a little extra allowance after their last report card. The minor snowfall that ended on Tuesday ranged from 2 to 3 inches with a few metro areas a bit higher. You may view the progressive forecasts for the storm here: Remember, the grading criteria includes performance on the lead up to the storm as well as performance on the last obtained forecast prior to the beginning of the storm. (Sunday night, in this case.) Cumulative grades and rankings represent composite performance to date. Please remember this is not scientific but represents our best assessment.

WCCO: A- Initially suggested accumulating snow in SW MN and was behind others in providing the "inches" forecast. However, they did get it right with their last forecast.
KSTP: A Well done. 
FOX: B+ The consistent 1 to 3 inch forecast was a bit on the low side.
KARE: A- Was a little on the low side with accumulations on Saturday night but rallied to get it right by Sunday night.
Star Tribune: B Was slow to consider that this snow would be anything than "a very light accumulation." Suggested "shovelable amounts" would be along the Minnesota River Valley through Saturday.
MPR: A- MPR does not provide updates to its weather blog on the weekends except in cases of major storms. Therefore, it's a little hard to grade in the same fashion as the other weather outlets. However, MPR identified the potential for a 3+-inch storm on Friday evening.
NWS: B+ Nailed the final forecast but was only showing a 50% chance of snow at a time (Saturday p.m.) when all others were talking with certainty.

This is a common example of the difficulty in getting accurate forecast information. The Sunday forecast temperature is 8 degrees on the 5-day outlook but is 12 degrees in the text that accompanied the graphic.
The next gradable event maybe for this Friday's possible snow event. There will also be a grade for the prediction of the upcoming cold wave from the weekend into early next week.

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Forecasters in Sync on Snow; Will There Be Cold Consensus?


Ongoing Snow Event: As of late Monday night, forecasts for the ongoing Monday/Tuesday snowfall appear well on track. Although official grades will likely come out late Tuesday night, it looks like a number of rare and long-awaited ‘A’s are in store.

Looking Ahead: Here’s a recap of forecasts for Friday (possible snow) and Sunday (possible coldest day of winter so far). As noted here, we're tracking the predicted weekend cold wave to see how the roster of forecasters performs. Feel free to score at home by following our cold wave "scoresheet."

WCCO
Friday: “Things get interesting. Early indications suggest 1-2 inches possible.
Sunday: High of 5
Of note: It could get even colder (pretty far below zero) Tuesday and Wednesday before things warm up by the end of the week.

KSTP
Friday: A little light snow, but it doesn't look like much at this point.
Sunday: High of 12
Of note:  When the cold air breaks early next week, we could be in for some more significant snow.

FOX
Friday: Another inch of snow possible with a weak clipper system
Sunday: High of 5

KARE
Friday: Cloudy with snow in the afternoon and evening with some accumulations
Sunday: High around 0 degrees.

NWS
Friday: 30 percent chance of snow
Sunday: High of 7

Star Tribune
Friday: Another inch of snow possible from a Friday clipper
Sunday: Another clipper, 1-2" powder late? High: 4
Of note: Arctic cold wave will be relatively brief - long range guidance hinting at a significant thaw for Minnesota after January 24, the last week of January may bring a streak of 30s, even a 40-degree high. It may even be warm enough for rain.

MPR
Friday: no details provided
Sunday: It’s possible temps may stay below zero

Sunday, January 9, 2011

Predicting the Cold Truth

Seems our weather dudes and duderesses need a little work on predicting nighttime cold temperatures. At least that's what we found when we did a "pop quiz" on the forecast for Saturday night's low. The actual low temp was 4 below (recorded at the airport, and yes I know the airport is warm and nobody lives there, but it's a reasonable gauge for towns inside the 494/694 concrete loop and that's what the forecasters had in mind). As of Friday night, these were the predicted lows for Saturday night (as noted here):
WCCO - 11 below, KSTP - 12 below, FOX - 14 below
KARE - 6 below, Star Tribune - 10 below, NWS - 10 below
Most weather outlets touted "coldest night of the season" for Saturday. It didn't happen. We're not going to grade that quiz, but we're here to serve notice to the forecasting clan that we're going to begin tracking the forecasted high for next Sunday. There's just been too much talk of the upcoming arctic blast not to shine the light on it. For the range of forecaster predictions for Monday/Tuesday's snow, click here.

Timed-Release Snowfall Appears Headed to Twin Cities


There’s little variation in the forecasts for the slow, light snow booked to arrive some time in the first half of Monday and stay through Tuesday. Two to three inches appears to be the median forecast. Herewith, the skinny on an early week snow event (compiled as of 10:30 p.m. Sunday).

WCCO
2-3 inches

KSTP
2-4 inches

FOX
1-3 inches

KARE
2-3 inches

NWS
Up to 3 inches

Star Tribune
2-4 inches
Note: Blog headline notes two plowable snow events this week (second one being Friday), +1 high next Sunday and 3-4 days of subzero high temps in the metro (possible metro lows of -25) between Jan. 21-25.

MPR
No update since Friday evening

Follow us on Twitter for updates.

Saturday, January 8, 2011

Prognisticators See Long-Duration, Light Snow for Monday into Tuesday


Looks like another yawner of a snow “happening” coming on Monday and spilling into Tuesday. Some weather outlets are being a little more specific than others. Of the ones that mention accumulations, none are predicting more than three inches.

Tonight, we salute KSTP for daring to present a new graphic for an accumulation forecast. It’s nothing fancy to be sure, but it does provide some nuance that we find is missing for many forecasts. In the manner of predicting levels of risk for severe weather, KSTP’s Chikage Windler depicted the chance of a 3+-inch snowfall with high, moderate and slight risk categories. The metro area was deemed a slight risk.
Accumulations by risk category. We like it!

And while we’re talking about “risk,” we at TMF wonder whatever was wrong with “chance.” Risk seems to have dangerous or perilous undertones. That, or it’s something that needs to be covered by an insurance company.

Without further rambling, here’s a rundown of forecasts, gathered as of 11 p.m. Saturday night, for a possible Monday snow. Remember to follow us on Twitter so that you can be bothered by weathercaster changes as they happen.

WCCO
Long-duration event of a little bit of light snow. No mention of accumulations. "Monday afternoon rush hour may be a mess."

KSTP
2-3 inches. “Slight risk” of >3 inches (see graphic).
Friday starting to look pretty interesting. Could pack a decent punch.

FOX
Snow will stick around through Tuesday. We'll see perhaps 1 to 3 inches in the metro.

KARE
“Light accumulations, but it will be more than of the events we had last week.” 1-2 inches, maybe a little more in some places.

NWS
50 percent chance of snow. No mention of accumulations.

MPR
No update since Friday.

Star Tribune
Light accumulations are possible through the first couple of days of the week with shovelable amounts along the Minnesota River Valley. The extended forecast is hinting at a slightly higher potential of accumulating snow near the Twin Cities Friday and Saturday.

Admittedly a Little Lame, But We're Trying


TMF is searching high and low to find some gradable weathercaster material on the local weathercaster scene, but there's not a whole lot of excitement to be found. But to show you we're not asleep at the wheel (or the channel changer), we've identified a few weather items worth illuminating.

1) The forecast low for Saturday night
2) The chance of snow early next week
3) The chance of snow at the end of next week
4) Cold wave for next weekend; duration and severity

Here are the latest thoughts on these weather situations from the fine forecasters of the Twin Cities as of late Friday except as otherwise noted:

WCCO
Saturday night: -11
Monday accumulating snow for SW Minn. Nothing mentioned for metro.

KSTP
Saturday night: -12
In the metro - for now - looks like a few inches possible ... spread out over 3 days (Mon-Wed), not all at once.

FOX
Saturday p.m. -14
Could be flirting with some snow Monday to Wednesday.
Mention of chance of snow next Friday and a colder weekend but no specifics

KARE
Saturday night: -6
Monday: Could be enough to shovel or sweep off. Not a big deal; light accumulations possible. No mention of weather for Friday or for next weekend

NWS
Saturday night: -10
Monday-Tuesday. 30-40 percent chance of snow.

Star Tribune
Saturday night: -10
As of p.m. on Jan. 7
Monday/Tuesday: Storm stays south, light snow showers possible; a very light accumulation possible
Friday: Developing storm. Mostly cloudy with snow and wind, turning colder late.

As of p.m. on Jan. 6
Coldest air of the winter possible January 17-20, subzero highs possible for 2+ days, nighttime lows may dip to -20 in the suburbs. The good news: the latest guidance is hinting that this Arctic outbreak will be relatively brief.

MPR
As of p.m. on Jan 7
Some forecast models suggesting 3"+ potential Monday & Tuesday?

As of a.m. on Jan 6
Headline: Siberian Express: -25? Coldest in 15 years?
Copy: The "Express" should arrive next weekend (by January 15-16), and could produce a prolonged cold wave of nearly one week.It's still early and the models could change, but the latest model trends bring the mother lode of cold air into Minnesota in waves. The first wave surges south next weekend. The second and coldest wave of this battery draining, tree cracking arctic outbreak may surge south by about January 18th, and last until Friday January 21st before the cold eases.

Thursday, January 6, 2011

And Who's the Dude Behind Minnesota Forecaster?

While we wait for "interesting" weather to return to the Twin Cities -- though a supposed cold wave coming later next week may be something we try to grade (hey, we're getting desperate) -- here for your "listening enjoyment" is a link to the recent radio interview from KVSC. The interview addresses the creation of the Minnesota Forecaster.

Monday, January 3, 2011

Class is Out of Session

"No big storms in sight" continues to be the common refrain among nearly all forecasters in the Twin Cities as of late Monday. The lone exception is Paul Douglas of the Star Tribune, who notes the potential of "significant snow" next week and goes on to write, "It's early, but guidance is pretty unanimous in printing out a 'few inches' Monday-Tuesday of next week." While other forecasters do not mention "significant"or use similar terms, they do note the possibility of snow for Monday. Perhaps it's all a matter of degree. We'll keep an eye on this to see if it's worthy of becoming a "gradable event."

In the meantime, enjoy the winter break.

Sunday, January 2, 2011

Minnesota Forecaster Hits the Airwaves

If you'd like to learn more about The Minnesota Forecaster, take a listen to radio station KVSC on Monday at 12:30 p.m. I'll be fielding questions related to the creation of the site. KVSC can be heard online here.