Showing posts with label Paul Douglas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Paul Douglas. Show all posts

Sunday, March 25, 2012

Forecaster Profile: Ian Leonard, Fox9 Chief Meteorologist


In a continuing series to help familiarize readers with Twin Cities weathercasters, Minnesota Forecaster sat down with Ian Leonard, Fox9 chief meteorologist, for a wide-ranging conversation. Ian discussed his theatrical roots, growing up at 53.5 degrees latitude north, the quirks of the weather business and, of course, his polar plunges. Here’s what he had to say:

If you weren’t a television meteorologist, what do you think you’d be doing?
At first I thought I might be a minister or an architect. The architect at the church we went to had a nice Volvo, while we had a Dodge Monte Carlo station wagon. But in 10th grade, I came to the conclusion that I wouldn’t be any good at designing houses or be able to drive up to church and give the sermon Sunday morning with my nice Volvo in the church parking lot.

As I grew older, I realized I had somehow inherited the performance gene from my parents. My father was an artist by day and sang opera at night while my mom was a dancer in the chorus line. They met during an audition and the rest is history. I started doing television commercials in junior high and caught the TV bug. When it came to making a career choice, I never thought I could be an anchor. I was skinny and not the best looking guy – the original 90-pound weakling. I realized that weather was my best option if I was going to be in television.

Tell us about your “performance gene.”
I was in an improv troupe in senior high school. We ended up getting a TV pilot on CBC in Canada in 1982. It was sort of like “Whose Line is It Anyway?” Back then, it was “Oh No, It’s Improv.” I still have reunions with that troupe and have been on stage with SCTV (Second City Television). I got to work with guys like Dave Thomas and Joe Flaherty, guys I grew up admiring and wanting to emulate. When I go back to Edmonton – if I go back at the right time of year – I get to go on an improv show called Oh Susanna! I’m still in touch with a lot of those people … it’s something about your roots. It helps keep you grounded when they call you a “sellout.” Some of them are still living five guys to a house trying to be that performer. I moved on from that a long time ago.

What was it like to begin your career in the place (Edmonton, Canada) where you grew up?
You talk about “local boy makes good” ... I went from part-time freelance weekend weather all the way up to chief meteorologist. I remember going on a conference call with the station VP to tell them I was leaving. They said, “Where are you going?” I said, “I’m going to Iowa.” Then all you heard were crickets … for like 30 seconds. People wondered how I could possibly leave the cushy gig at the number one station in the city where I grew up to go to Iowa!

So why did you leave the so-called “cushy gig?”
I knew I ultimately wanted to be in a bigger market and just wanted to try something new. I don’t think I would have been a good guy in the 50s when you got the job and you worked there for 30 years and got the gold watch. Life is just this grand adventure – like when my wife and I went to Paris for our honeymoon we didn’t have hotel reservations. We just want to try new stuff. But I’m not a journeyman. I’ve only worked in three markets in 20+ years, and hopefully we don’t ever move from here. My wife’s family settled in Golden Valley in the 1800s so in a roundabout way I have brought her home. This is great.

What were the forecasting challenges you had working in Edmonton?
Edmonton is 53.5 degrees latitude north. It’s not quite the edge of the earth but you can almost see it from there. If you look at a map, you’ll think, “Wow, I had no idea how far north it was.” In the winter, the sun comes up at ten to 9 and goes down at ten to 3. But in summer, you go play softball at 7 at night and the sun’s going down at five to midnight. It had different forecasting challenges. We had a very short, but intense severe weather season with an average of 15-20 tornadoes a year. A lot of people don’t realize we have those that far north. They have a very long duration winter. Snow would generally stay before Halloween and wouldn’t be gone until well into May. I once did a cut-in there nationally when it was 54 below zero windchill, 42 below air temperature. People are like, “Oh my god, how can you live there?” I just did. It’s like how do you live in Florida when it’s sunny and muggy?

It seems like you’re part scientist, part performer and part graphic designer. Is that a fair assessment?
I have no problem with that. As the chief, you have a large amount of input into how your graphics are going to look and how they are built into your show and all the other shows. There are some stations in some markets where if you’re watching the weekend weather it doesn’t look anything like the weekday weather. My buzzword is always seamless consistency. So if Keith Marler is working the morning show or Marina Jurica is working on the weekend, it’s the same graphics. To me, there’s a comfort level for the viewer in that.

In today’s world, it seems like there is an almost limitless amount of scientific graphics you can create for the viewer. How do you decide what to present?
The “whiz bang fly thru 300 MB (millibar jetstream) 15 days out shows the viewer something they don’t really understand just to make yourself look smart graphics” are a waste of time, and the research backs it up. My approach is to be genuine, conversational and back it up when you need to with solid graphics, excellent presentation and education. Science and graphics are not enough in this 150-channel universe. You must also engage the viewer.

You’re part of a weather team. How much control do you have over what the next person on the team says after you leave the forecast behind?
That’s the beast that we ride. Hundreds of days I’ll be out and it will be a like today, mainly sunny, nice day. Someone will come up to me in Target and say, “You blew this one.” I say, “What do you mean?” “You said it was going to rain,” they’ll say. I said, “No, I didn’t.” But somehow they either thought they were watching me or they were watching somebody else or they heard it on the radio. We’re all sort of meshed together. And some people also say, “We love watching you in the morning.” So you think, “Do I correct them or do I say thank you because they at least recognize me?” Usually, I just say “Thank you so much.”

Do you think viewers follow a met or a station?
That’s a hard one. I think they follow the team but always have a favorite team member. I’m the first to tell you that I’m not everyone’s cup of tea. And if you grow up in this business thinking that 10 people you run into in the street will think you’re the bee’s knees, you’re wrong, man. You hope that six think you’re kind of good. There’s a couple who could care less about you and then there’s a couple that might want to punch you square in the chops.

Every job, no matter how glamorous it may seem to outsiders, has to have some challenges, some politics. How about yours?
This is a real fickle business and you have to grow thick skin. It’s not too often when an accountant has to go through a review where they say, “You know what, your hair’s all wrong and you can’t wear that type of suit any more. Lose 20 pounds and, by the way, it wouldn’t hurt you to do a little workout, maybe build your upper body.” These are the things that people tell you and I don’t think there are many people who would take kindly to that. And just when you think you’ve got it, it all changes! And the new person comes in and says, “What do you mean they always told you to wear that? That’s terrible, and why’s your hair so short? I want you to grow it out.” And then you’ve got your agent who has ideas. I remember my agent called me once to give me “coaching” and he said, “You know, I’d cut your sideburns. I know the kids are wearing them like that, but you’re over 40.” That’s the hardest part of this business … everybody’s got an opinion. And it’s also the viewers that have an opinion. There’s a lady who sends me notes every time I wear an orange tie. She hates them. And … it’s just a tie. What do you do, right?

You mention the Special Olympics often during your forecasts, particularly your polar plunges. Some viewers are bothered by what they see as an interruption in your forecast. What would you say to that?
I’ve been involved with the Special Olympics since the 90s and have been doing the polar plunges for a long time. The Special Olympics here is a small organization with less than 10 employees. It’s not fancy. They hit $430,000 the first year, then $660,000. This year they hope to make $2.4 million from nine weeks of polar plunges. It’s created a movement. There are a lot of places that would not let their chief meteorologist talk about something like that every single night on the air but FOX 9 has been incredible in their support for me and Special Olympics. But if it’s not getting in the way of severe or life-threatening weather, why not? The money raised goes toward keeping people healthy, from ages 5 to 66. This is grassroots stuff, changing and saving some lives. I’ve always felt that wherever you work, try to leave it better. I don’t do this because I have to, I do this because I can. It’s not something I do just for the air; this is my life.

How are you evaluated?
Well, first and foremost, get the forecast right, and by doing that you can earn people’s trust… you literally audition for your audience every night and they vote with the remote. Secondly, it’s ratings. You gotta get the ratings to keep the job. I like to call it “infotainment.” I am a science geek who loves weather, but that is not enough to get you to watch. You have to be able to engage the viewers. I tell anyone new in this business, be yourself, be genuine and let the rest happen. And then from there it becomes a flow of everything that goes into getting the ratings. If you are correct with your forecast science and you are genuine then hopefully the ratings will follow.

What weathercasters do you admire? If you could have lunch with one, who would it be and why?
There’d be two people. The first one would be with a guy from Edmonton who I grew up watching. His name was Bill Matheson. And I think for my entire career, he’ll be the yardstick I measure myself by. And he moved to the states and was a big star down here but eventually went back to Canada and was on air until he was about 75. He was unbelievably entertaining. Unbelievably scientific. He was engaging, a wonderful, wonderful man.

And I think second to that would be – and I didn’t get a chance to watch him as long as I would have liked to – but second would be somebody like Paul Douglas. Because it’s not always been about success for either of them, but how they handled it. You know, Paul has had some unsuccessful events, including the stint in Chicago, but he continues to reinvent himself. Paul and I get lunch together every once in a while. I sometimes even let him pay… he is a great mentor and friend.

Like reading about the local forecasters? Here's one we did on KSTP's Patrick Hammer and another on WCCO's Matt Brickman. We also assisted with a similar profile on Keith Marler for Weatherist.com. Look for more to come.

The Minnesota Forecaster provides analysis of both the weather and those who forecast the weather for the Twin Cities. For periodic updates, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

A Weather Heartbreaker, Minnesota Style

In the end, even the weather produced a Vikings-esque performance.

In a winter that’s already established a number of daily warm records, a bigger, more significant and telling mark lay ahead. If the Twin Cities could go until Thursday, January 19 without recording a temperature below zero, it would establish a new standard for the latest sub-zero ever recorded – the ultimate warm record for this northern locale.

Never in the history of the Twin Cities had a zero degree reading meant so much.
The stage was set for this momentous weather achievement. As of Wednesday morning (January 18), the National Weather Service was predicting a record, forecasting temps to stay above zero until the wee hours of Thursday morning (January 19). Most other local weather outlets, while stopping short of guaranteeing a new record, were clearly expecting January 18 to be free of sub-zero temps. Even as late as early evening, The Weather Channel forecast temps to be three degrees above zero as the calendar turned to Thursday.

Hourly temperatures forecast by The Weather Channel
At 6 p.m. on January 18, the temperature was 25. While forecasters warned that the temperature would "drop like a toilet lid," the idea that it could drop 26 degrees before the clock struck midnight was considered highly unlikely. In a “Dewey Defeats Truman” moment, Star Tribune meteorologist Paul Douglas wrote the following in his daily weather blog, authored Wednesday evening (for reading on Thursday morning):

Welcome to the first subzero morning of winter, and a record-breaking one at that. We set a record for the latest subzero on record in the metro.

Indeed, the Twin Cities stood on the precipice. The champagne was on ice. Weather geeks around the metro area were looking for the Gatorade jug.

However, shortly after 6:30 p.m., just five and a half hours before the finish line, the temperature began a steady decline. From 6:33 p.m. to 6:53 p.m. the temperature dropped nearly six degrees to 19. But that still required a further drop of 20 degrees in the next five hours. The record seemed as safe as a commanding Twins lead with Joe Nathan taking the mound in the ninth inning (well, at least in better years).

Then Mother Nature began to heave a Hail Mary. The hour from 7-8 p.m. brought a staggering 10-degree drop in temperature to a bitter nine degrees, rocking the psyche of those who wanted to live through a most unlikely record. It was time to sweat; a photo finish looked increasingly likely.

Official temperatures recorded at MSP airport.
By this time, weather watching, or more specifically temperature watching, became a spectator sport among Twin Cities weather hobbyists and professional meteorologists alike. The words of @dlhmnwx30 said it best: “Eating popcorn while watching temp at MSP. Will it stay above 0 thru midnight?”

The prospect of setting a record grew darker with each passing hour. At 9 p.m., it was six degrees. An hour later it was a mere two. We were Rangers fans watching the Cardinals putting together a most unlikely two-out ninth inning rally.

The situation grew dire by 11 p.m., when the official airport temperature dropped to an even zero. All the work it took to set the stage for this unlikely, extraordinary record for mildness was on the verge of being wasted.

Lacking the ability to build an enclosed wall around the airport thermometer gauge, it was a forgone conclusion. The same destiny that produced four Super Bowl losses and a long dearth of sports champions (sorry, we can’t count the Links), was at work on the Twin Cities record books.

By 11:25 p.m. the temp officially dropped to one degree below zero. It remained there through midnight, cementing a weather consolation prize that left many disappointed.

Call it a defeat snatched from the jaws of victory. In weather, as in sports, a tie is like kissing your sister.

The Minnesota Forecaster provides analysis of both the weather and those who forecast the weather for the Twin Cities. For periodic updates, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Saturday, June 18, 2011

A Case of Dew Point Inflation?

There have been occasions this spring/summer where a few forecasters have rather casually tossed around 70-degree dewpoints, the levels at which most agree things feel pretty steamy and tropical. The skeptic in us thinks that exaggerated dew point temperatures are used to grab attention in the same way that exaggerated wind chill temperatures are used in the winter. Today seems to be one of those days.

This morning's blog from the Star Tribune states that today's (Saturday's) dew points will be in the tropical 70s per below:


However, dew point forecasts obtained from Weather Underground and sourced from the National Digital Forecast Database (NWS) predict dew points will go no higher than 65 today:


In the world of dew points, a dew point difference of five or more degrees from 65 to 70+ is significant. It's the difference between "rather muggy" and "really muggy/oppressive."

Sunday, April 17, 2011

Informal Review of Friday Night/Saturday Storm

Before thoughts quickly move to the next possible slushstorm possibly coming through the Twin Cities, here are a few passing thoughts on forecaster performance for the recent storm.

For the most part, it seems that snow at this time of year is essentially white rain. So a missed forecast really isn't as important as when accumulating snow tends to wreak havoc on traffic, etc. Another thing that's interesting about forecasting this time of the year, is that forecasters seem to "poo poo" models that suggest snow. Some of the television forecasters really seem to have a "let's not talk about it for now" attitude, partly because talking about snow at this point of the season seems to distasteful and partly because climatology suggests that serious snow this late in the year is so unlikely. Still, it feels as if we're in a period -- including the upcoming week -- where forecasters are underestimating the possibilities of snow.

In the final analysis, most forecasts on Friday evening were for 1 to 2 inches of slushy snow, which ultimately came to fruition (with several exceptions in the far south metro). However, it seems that virtually all forecasters expected a considerable period of rain at the onset and an overnight change to snow, neither of which happened.

KSTP and KARE were off on this forecast from Wednesday night, both predicting all or the bulk of the precip to be rain. The Strib, on the other hand, seemed to be the most persistent in predicting accumulations. Other general observations on overall forecaster performance: 1) Saturday was forecast to be sunny after the morning; never happened. 2) Saturday was colder than anyone predicted and the snow that accumulated seemed slower to leave than most forecast.

Thoughts/comments?

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

A Look Into the Future with Paul Douglas

TMP would like to take this opportunity to thank Paul Douglas, Star Tribune weather columnist and CEO/Chief Meterologist for WeatherNation, for providing a glimpse into the future of weather forecasting and weather communication. If you're a weather consumer -- and who isn't? -- great things are ahead. Paul suggests we're at the cusp of major changes in the way weather is delivered. He sees increased personalization and greater use of multi-media (video, social media, interactive, etc.). More and more, weather information will come to you in an increasingly efficient, relevant way. Some day, Paul suggests, the weather for your 10 a.m. tee time on Friday will be plopped directly into your personal calendar. Amazing stuff... and we hope to share more in a future post. Many thanks for taking the time to talk with us, Paul!

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Humble Words From Paul Douglas

Many readers of TMF likely follow Paul Douglas's weather blog on the Star Tribune. Paul has received a great deal of heat lately from his forecast for the recent storm as well as for some controversial long-range forecasts. In what we consider to be a humble, honest effort to gather the thoughts of his readers, Paul's current blog entry solicits their input. In addition to posting any comments directly on his blog, we offer this space to collect the thoughts of our valued TMF readers. We will be sure he is made aware of any comments you may leave.

The following is the full text of Paul's self-described mea culpa taken directly from the blog:

Mea Culpa. In my highly unscientific and statistically-meaningless poll of a few dozen people yesterday, fully 78% were "relieved" that the storm never materialized. The other 22% (apparent snow-lovers, still not quite content with the 79+" snow we've received) gave me an earful. "What happened to the 12" you PROMISED me Paul?" Huh?

On this blog I've been posting the latest model predictions looking out a week or more, knowing full well that some of these long-range guestimates are iffy. I went out of my way to remind (everyone) that confidence levels were low, I tried to explain, "here's what the models are saying." "Here's a look into the future, warts and all." Maybe that's the wrong approach. I'm starting to wonder if I should do a better job of editing the models and not putting everything out there. Long range forecasting is the meteorological equivalent of making sausage - you probably don't want to see the process, if you can help it. Dozens of models to choose from, some work better than others in certain scenarios, sometimes they all disagree. On occasion they're all wrong - which was pretty much the case with this last "storm".

I suspect that the physics in the models (especially the GFS, which is the only American model that goes out beyond 84 hours) has a tougher time dealing with the transition from a wintry regime to a springlike pattern, which is what's underway right now. I can't prove that, but I've heard enough complaining (from other meteorologists) that leads me to believe that a March model run is probably more unreliable than a January model solution. I did try to give a blow by blow account of what the models were predicting (for better or worse), and a few days ago it really did look like we could be in for a major snowfall. But since Monday the models (including the GFS and the NAM/WRF) began to pull back, pushing the track farther east, and we gradually dropped our predictions, to the point we were calling for "an inch or two" as of Tuesday. No excuses - this last system was not handled well. It's easy to blame the models, but it's our responsibilty as meteorologists to monitor and vet those models, throw out the dubious model runs - and through a combination of gut feel, historical context and experience zero in on the right solution, weeding out the "correct" model.

The GFS model nailed the major snowstorms back in December and February (which probably gave me a false sense of security and confidence). This time around the models were almost worthless. So I'm wrestling with this: do I continue to post what the models are predicting (come what may), or do more judicious editing, and only post what I think may REALLY unfold looking out 5-15 days? My gut is telling me to still share as much (raw data) as possible - get it out there and let you see what the guidance is saying, but do a better job of attaching a "confidence level" to those models. When all the models agree our confidence tends to go up, and for a time late last week all the models were hinting at over 6", maybe a foot for parts of southeastern MN. They were (all) wrong, in 20/20 hindsight. That's what's so frustrating about this last system. That's the thing about weather forecasting. You nail a couple of major storms, your confidence level goes up, and then Mother Nature kicks you in the Doppler. A painful learning curve.

A humbling profession, yes. Mea culpa and all due apologies to snow-lovers. Commuters caught a break this time around. Time to go back to eating my tasty crow souffle.

Saturday, January 15, 2011

Prediction of a Cold Wave


These are excerpted comments from the Paul Douglas on Weather blog that appears online in the Star Tribune. We’ve excerpted his comments relating to a cold wave that he began to predict two weeks ago. Particularly notable phrases include “potentially dangerous cold,” “possible all-time records for January cold,” and “lows to -25 in the metro (and colder in the suburbs).” As of January 15, Paul’s forecast highs for Jan. 16-20 are 8, 18, 5, 17 and 9. The coldest overnight temperature forecast during the period is -3.

January 5, 2011 - 9:41 AM
Long-range models hinting at a few subzero daytime highs (even for the metro area) between January 16-20, possibly the coldest stretch of the entire winter.

Coldest Of The Winter? On Tuesday, January 18, we could be looking at 2-3 days in a row of subzero highs, even in the immediate Twin Cities metro, with nighttime lows dipping into the -10 to -20 F. range.

Last update: January 5, 2011 - 10:59 PM
Coldest Cold Front of the Winter? The GFS model is consistently printing out a very cold spell during the third week of January, especially Jan. 15 - 19. A few days with highs below zero are possible during that period, even in the metro area. Still early - but I have a hunch this will wind up being colder than early December, possibly the coldest of the winter.

Coldest air may come between January 16-21, a few subzero days with nighttime lows as cold as -20 to -25F around the metro, some -40s possible up north.

What may wind up being a newsworthy cold wave, a potentially dangerous 3-4 day episode of Siberian air, is shaping up for the 3rd week of January, between the 17th and 21st, give or take. Models are fairly consistent, pulling polar air into Minnesota. The good news: it may be a relatively quick shot of brutally cold air, 3-5 days. The bad news: even the metro may experience a few days of subzero highs (-3 to -8 F) with nighttime lows in the -25 F. range. Still time to call your travel agent or check out those low-low fares on Expedia.com!

This time next week a plowable snowfall is possible, followed by what MAY be the coldest smack since Jan. 2004 (-24 in the metro). Ouch.

Last update: January 6, 2011 - 10:46 PM
Coldest Air of Winter 8-10 Days Away?
Coldest air of the winter possible January 17-20, subzero highs possible for 2+ days, nighttime lows may dip to -20 in the suburbs. The good news: the latest guidance is hinting that this Arctic outbreak will be relatively brief.

Coldest Air Of The Winter? It's coming. Here is raw GFS guidance for the third week of January. The good news: it won't last long, maybe 3 or 4 days, tops. The bad news: we will probably experience 2 or 3 subzero "highs", afternoon temperatures in the -3 to -8 F. range (in the metro) with nighttime lows dipping as low as -20 to -25 F. I wouldn't be suprised to see some -40 to -45 F. lows up north by January 18th or 19th. Time to call your travel agent or hop on-line and find a good fare to....anywhere. My gut: Jan. 17-21 will be the coldest spell of the entire winter, possible record territory.

January 7, 2011 - 9:22 PM
Next Weekend's Arctic Blast - Could be Coldest of Season!

January 10, 2011 - 9:57 AM
Turning colder over the weekend, potential for subzero highs over much of Minnesota by Sunday.

Bitter Blast - Coldest of Winter? Last week at this time a number of people thought I was mad predicting a bitter outbreak more than 2 weeks away. But we're still on track for a news-worthy bout of Siberian air, best chance of subzero weather from the 20th through the 25th of January. We may still experience 3 or 4 days of subzero highs in the metro (-3 to -8 F. range) with nighttime lows dipping to -25, even colder in the outlying suburbs. I'm still expecting a rash of -40s up north, maybe a -50 up at Embarrass and Tower, the twin cities of cold. Yes, we may set a few all-time records for January cold later this month. Give it about a week and a half and everyone will be griping...

January 11, 2011 - 3:48 PM
Highs may not climb above zero Sunday and next Monday, even in the metro area. Lows in the -8 to -15 range possible.

January 15, 2011 - 12:11 AM
Next week's cold wave has been neutered; each successive computer run cuts back on the severity of the polar outbreak - maybe 2 or 3 nights below zero, but hardly record-breaking.

Monday, January 3, 2011

Class is Out of Session

"No big storms in sight" continues to be the common refrain among nearly all forecasters in the Twin Cities as of late Monday. The lone exception is Paul Douglas of the Star Tribune, who notes the potential of "significant snow" next week and goes on to write, "It's early, but guidance is pretty unanimous in printing out a 'few inches' Monday-Tuesday of next week." While other forecasters do not mention "significant"or use similar terms, they do note the possibility of snow for Monday. Perhaps it's all a matter of degree. We'll keep an eye on this to see if it's worthy of becoming a "gradable event."

In the meantime, enjoy the winter break.