A Mix on the Way? (And What Was KARE11 Thinking?)

NWS forecast as of Sunday mid-afternoon.

We haven't done many forecast assessments in a while because, for one, there hasn't been much snow in the forecast. Indeed, there's been a string of measure-by-the-millimeter snowfalls lately.

For much of the day on Thursday, forecasters were expecting the possibility of an inch or snow that could affect the Friday morning commute. However, by mid evening, most outlets had backed off that forecast, with many forecasting either nothing or just a dusting. And even a casual observer of the radar had not to notice that most of the snow had seemed to slide past to the southeast and northeast.

Notably, however, Belinda Jensen on KARE11 warned during the early weather tease on the 10 p.m. news  that up to an inch of snow was possible that would likely affect the morning commute. This was at the same time when all other outlets saw the storm's handwriting on the wall.

We can only wonder what KARE11, typically among the most conservative Twin Cities stations when it comes to forecasting snow, was thinking. Was it a steadfast belief that snow would materialize into something more than 10 flakes? Was it laziness in not accessing the weather data used by other outlets to produce a "call off the wolves" forecast? Who knows... but KARE11 viewers were decidedly not well served by the 10 p.m. weather forecast on January 24.

Switching gears.... As of Sunday mid afternoon, the NWS issued a Winter Weather Advisory for 9 a.m. Sunday to Sunday at midnight. The NWS had earlier issued a Winter Storm Watch that seemed rather puzzling to our uneducated eyes.

Beyond that, virtually all forecasters were predicting a return of the arctic cold by Wednesday night.

Future Scan vs. Reality: How Did It Stack Up for KARE11 Sunday Night?

Future scan, or "future radar" as some weather outlets call it, has increased in popularity over the last several years. Yet we've always wondered how future radar verifies. A tweet from KARE11's Sven Sundgaard detailed the future radar for 11:39 (the tweet was issued at 10:40 so the "future" in this case was about one hour). Here is how the future scan appeared (click here for actual depiction):

Here is TMF's screen capture of KARE11 radar's actual scan at 11:40:

Finally, for good measure, here's a radar scan from Wunderground.com at about the same time:

In our opinion, while the future scan reasonably communicated the essence of the storm movement -- and therefore did provide a service, the future scan did not account for the heavier showers that persisted on the north side of the Twin Cities. A big deal? Probably not in this case. But we think that given the inherent unpredictability of summer storms, it can be risky business to provide an image that suggests an all-knowing future.

How would you assess the effectiveness of KARE11's future radar and the concept of future radar in general? Leave your comments below.

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Informal Review of Friday Night/Saturday Storm

Before thoughts quickly move to the next possible slushstorm possibly coming through the Twin Cities, here are a few passing thoughts on forecaster performance for the recent storm.

For the most part, it seems that snow at this time of year is essentially white rain. So a missed forecast really isn't as important as when accumulating snow tends to wreak havoc on traffic, etc. Another thing that's interesting about forecasting this time of the year, is that forecasters seem to "poo poo" models that suggest snow. Some of the television forecasters really seem to have a "let's not talk about it for now" attitude, partly because talking about snow at this point of the season seems to distasteful and partly because climatology suggests that serious snow this late in the year is so unlikely. Still, it feels as if we're in a period -- including the upcoming week -- where forecasters are underestimating the possibilities of snow.

In the final analysis, most forecasts on Friday evening were for 1 to 2 inches of slushy snow, which ultimately came to fruition (with several exceptions in the far south metro). However, it seems that virtually all forecasters expected a considerable period of rain at the onset and an overnight change to snow, neither of which happened.

KSTP and KARE were off on this forecast from Wednesday night, both predicting all or the bulk of the precip to be rain. The Strib, on the other hand, seemed to be the most persistent in predicting accumulations. Other general observations on overall forecaster performance: 1) Saturday was forecast to be sunny after the morning; never happened. 2) Saturday was colder than anyone predicted and the snow that accumulated seemed slower to leave than most forecast.

Thoughts/comments?

Grades for the (Mostly) Unwanted Storm of March 22-23

Our standard disclaimer: The grades we provide are not scientific. However, they represent our best effort to assess the performance of Twin City weather outlets. Our grades are based on established grading criteria and we maintain forecast histories for each event. It might also be helpful to read our “Weather Watcher’s Bill of Rights” to get a sense of our perspective.

Over the last several weeks, it seems, the ferocity of a storm seems inversely related to the amount of media hype. This storm was no exception. For the progressive forecast by weather outlet for this storm, click here.

In general, the rain/sleet/snowstorm of March 22-23 was tough to forecast. Until about 12 hours before the onset of the storm, most forecasters believed the heaviest snow would fall well north of the Twin Cities and that the storm’s calling card would be a small, slushy nuisance accumulation. In the end, the inner core of the Twin Cities was significantly affected as evidenced by the huge number of accidents reported (although the highest amounts of snow did fall just north of the central cities).

The late change in the storm’s track clearly had forecasters scrambling and ensured that a top grade was not attainable (except in one case). In addition, it seemed that some forecasters embraced late model changes while others seemed to discount them.

Here are the grades for what many hope will be the last significant snow of the season:

WCCO: C+ From a presentation standpoint, we have issues with WCCO’s visual depiction of what a certain model says when the forecaster goes on to say he doesn’t believe it and that it just provides an idea. The fact is that television news is all about visuals and we think that if people see 6.9” printed out for the metro and 18” totals for parts of northern Minnesota that that’s what they’re going to take home with them. We think that viewers are far better served by the meteorologist creating a fresh, non-model produced graphic that reflects what he/she thinks will really happen. OK, off our soapbox. TMF readers, do you agree? Beyond the presentation matter, WCCO did pick up on the final twists and turns of the storm, correctly predicting 4-6 inches as of the 10 p.m. newscast. However, as with most other prognosticators, they underestimated the magnitude of the storm in the days leading up to the event.

KSTP: A- This was a very good performance by KSTP. They were the first to latch on to the possibility of more than 1-3 inches of snow (on Monday night) and they were steady in their predictions from that point on. And, they were generally accurate with predictions of 3-5 inches of snow for the south metro and 6-10 inches on the north side. Our one complaint with KSTP was that they dropped the use of their confidence ratings, a tool we thought would have served viewers particularly well in this storm, particularly given the high uncertainty of the timing of the changeover to snow.

FOX: B- FOX was generally in the middle of the pack on this one. They were in the 1-3” boat like most others until the final bell, when their final forecast was for 3-5 inches. To their credit, FOX made a clear and unequivocable case for the bad road conditions that would greet commuters in the morning.

KARE: D It’s always a little hard to assess KARE given the cautious way they state their predictions, but it seems pretty evident they never got a good handle on this storm. On Friday evening, when all other weathercasters were allowing for the possibility of accumulating snow, KARE said it was “looking like mostly rain Tuesday night into Wednesday.” On Tuesday’s evening, KARE predicted 1-3 inches, a prediction they stayed with through Wednesday night’s 10 p.m. forecast, a time at which virtually all other outlets predicted higher, and more accurate, amounts. It seemed to us that KARE was asleep at the wheel.

Star Tribune: B The interesting situation with the Strib column this past week was that the regular blogger was on vacation during much of the time the storm was evolving, leaving one to wonder what might have otherwise been predicted in the days preceding of the storm. Nonetheless, the Strib’s blog was generally in the weather forecaster mainstream until yesterday evening, when readers were put on alert that there was an unmistakable change occurring. We give credit to the Strib for putting out the timeliest update (6:30 p.m.) of the important forecast change, one that seemed to turn the storm from a nuisance storm to something with considerably greater impact. The updated snow estimate of 4-8 inches was generally on target.

MPR: B- As we’ve mentioned before, evaluations of MPR must take into consideration that for the most part it’s a one-man operation. It also emphasizes statewide weather given the nature of its readers and listeners. So we’re never sure whether to include it with our grading. That said, MPR blended with most other weather outlets for this storm. We applaud the alert as to the general escalation of snow totals; however, it was issued at 11:10 p.m., likely a little late for most people to plan accordingly.

NWS: B+ It’s challenging to assign a grade for the NWS this time around. The weather discussions and early forecasts suggested that the storm would be more than a nuisance. They called for a 70 percent chance of snow as early as Friday evening and included accumulation totals of one sort or another from that time forward. This was all good. However, they were late in issuing warnings and advisories. And the eventual declaration of a Winter Storm Warning when there was never a prior Winter Storm Watch can’t be the way they draw things up at the NWS. Then again other media outlets aren’t burdened with the duty to declare watches and warnings.

Agree or disagree with our forecaster grades? Let us know what you think (that includes our beloved forecasters whose performance we judge).

Forecasters See Minimal Sunday Snow; Major Cold Next Week

By late Saturday night, the trend among most Twin City forecasters was to decrease the amount of snow that may fall from late Saturday into Monday. All outlets except for the Star Tribune expect any snow to amount to an inch or less. The Star Tribune predicted 1 to 3 inches. Here's a summary for the late weekend possibility of snow:

WCCO: Dusting to maybe an inch
KSTP: Expect to snow accumulations to be south of the metro
FOX: Possibility of 1 to 2 inches of snow by Monday morning but it would likely be closer to one inch.
KARE: Light snow from Saturday night through Monday. Could be some light accumulations.
Strib: 1 to 3 inches
NWS: 40-50% chance of snow by Sunday and Sunday night. No accumulations mentioned.

And now for the cold, which seems a can't-miss intrusion into our lives yet again based on all forecasts. The average predicted temperature for Monday through Friday is 11, 7, 9, 5 and 12. At this juncture, KARE seems the least down on the cold, with a fair amount of warmer variance than the other weather outlets through Wednesday of next week. If you'd like to see the progressive forecast by weather outlet on the predicted cold wave, click here. We'll continually monitor the cold forecast and see how the fearless forecasters perform on their mid- to long-range temperature forecasts.

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It Got Our Goat

We came across this item on the KARE11 website this evening (and yes, we're talking about the weather and not the woman in blue):

Now, wouldn't the headline Twin Cities Closing In on Snowfall Record suggest that the Twin Cities are quite close to breaking the record, on the precipitation precipice as it were? In reality, the 59.5 inches is more than 30 inches short of the record! Yea, it's only mid-January, but the headline suggests it's a mere matter of time, doncha think? Here at TMF, we don't like any comments about the weather that are misleading.

Are we out of line? What do you think?