Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Attack of the Numbers: Early Returns on the Cold Wave Forecasts
Snowfall on Thursday afternoon.
(Very) early returns on the analysis of forecaster efforts to predict the coming cold wave are somewhat interesting. The progressive analysis shows the high temperatures for a future date as they are predicted for several days in advance. If that doesn't make sense, check the analysis and it might make more sense. Two things that jump out at me: 1) Paul Douglas's forecast numbers are consistently to the extreme and change considerably with each day, and 2) WCCO, Fox and the National Weather Service have been the most consistent from day to day. After the cold wave comes and goes, we'll do a grading of weathercasters' ability to predict temperatures up to seven days in advance.