Saturday, January 8, 2011

Admittedly a Little Lame, But We're Trying

TMF is searching high and low to find some gradable weathercaster material on the local weathercaster scene, but there's not a whole lot of excitement to be found. But to show you we're not asleep at the wheel (or the channel changer), we've identified a few weather items worth illuminating.

1) The forecast low for Saturday night
2) The chance of snow early next week
3) The chance of snow at the end of next week
4) Cold wave for next weekend; duration and severity

Here are the latest thoughts on these weather situations from the fine forecasters of the Twin Cities as of late Friday except as otherwise noted:

Saturday night: -11
Monday accumulating snow for SW Minn. Nothing mentioned for metro.

Saturday night: -12
In the metro - for now - looks like a few inches possible ... spread out over 3 days (Mon-Wed), not all at once.

Saturday p.m. -14
Could be flirting with some snow Monday to Wednesday.
Mention of chance of snow next Friday and a colder weekend but no specifics

Saturday night: -6
Monday: Could be enough to shovel or sweep off. Not a big deal; light accumulations possible. No mention of weather for Friday or for next weekend

Saturday night: -10
Monday-Tuesday. 30-40 percent chance of snow.

Star Tribune
Saturday night: -10
As of p.m. on Jan. 7
Monday/Tuesday: Storm stays south, light snow showers possible; a very light accumulation possible
Friday: Developing storm. Mostly cloudy with snow and wind, turning colder late.

As of p.m. on Jan. 6
Coldest air of the winter possible January 17-20, subzero highs possible for 2+ days, nighttime lows may dip to -20 in the suburbs. The good news: the latest guidance is hinting that this Arctic outbreak will be relatively brief.

As of p.m. on Jan 7
Some forecast models suggesting 3"+ potential Monday & Tuesday?

As of a.m. on Jan 6
Headline: Siberian Express: -25? Coldest in 15 years?
Copy: The "Express" should arrive next weekend (by January 15-16), and could produce a prolonged cold wave of nearly one week.It's still early and the models could change, but the latest model trends bring the mother lode of cold air into Minnesota in waves. The first wave surges south next weekend. The second and coldest wave of this battery draining, tree cracking arctic outbreak may surge south by about January 18th, and last until Friday January 21st before the cold eases.


  1. Good idea on grading the 'cold wave hype' Bill. It's coming, but when, how long and how cold remains to be seen.

  2. Ive always thought that the only "no-brainer" when it comes to weather forecasting in MN, it's the forecasting of artic outbreaks. It seems that they never get these wrong. They will however often blow it by declaring it to end in a few days, but then it will linger even longer.

  3. I completely agree, though sometimes I think when they talk up arctic outbreaks more than a week in advance, they don't always happen. I think it will be interesting to see if the cold wave long predicted for next weekend comes to pass in the severity that it's been predicted by Paul Huttner and Paul Douglas.