Friday, December 28, 2018

Out With the Rain, In With the Cold

The last storm was not particularly pleasing to Twin Cities snow lovers but the rollercoaster pattern ahead offers at least one opportunity for snow.

The not-so-reliable Minnesota Forecaster blog host has been in New Mexico. This was the idyllic winter season on the Plaza in Santa Fe on Thursday night.



Winter onward!

112 comments:

  1. Very nice Bill! Good to see your all well. Thanks for sharing the snow video in Santa Fe.

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  2. Welcome back, Bill! Everyone, surprise, surprise the NWS is calling for 3-5 inches of snow in western and northern MN (the same areas that just got dumped on) on Monday. As for the metro, wait for it, don't get ahead of me...nothing beyond a dusting. The haves and the have nots! As an added bonus the mostly snow free metro landscape will approach 40 degrees by the end of next week. Isn't winter in Topeka, um, I mean Minneapolis grand?!

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  3. Anyone have a bead on Monday. TWC has less than an inch in the AM and under an inch in the PM. Looks like around an inch and a half. AccuWeather had 3-6 inches from now to Monday. So 1.5 to 6 inches. A bit of a spread. It would be nice to have New Year's Eve off. Thoughts?

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  4. Novak posted his travel map for sunday/monday and said blowing and drifting will be a concern with the cities (even south of the cities) in the moderate area with many of those areas not receiving any snow from the last system. models are saying most if not all of the snow is in central and northern MN. Novak on to something the rest of us are not seeing?

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    Replies
    1. Not on to, perhaps on something

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    2. I agree. The NWS is saying maybe an inch for the metro, and that those areas (north and west of the metro) that just got a heavy snowfall are going to get the lion's share of Monday's system too.

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    3. Well as of 5:30 this morning, NWS has 2-4 inches of wintry mix across the metro in the upcoming night/days. Of course it can and most likely will change, but Novak isn't just posting for one tiny area of MN. The metro is probably in his 'moderate' map area so that people 1) take note/stay aware and 2) to show what 'might' be, and right now NWS is backing him. Again, though, it could all change. The only thing I'm 'on' is an interest in weather and reading comments here that are insightful and from which I learn, not merely critical.

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  5. Two minutes ago KARE 11 said Sunday night and Monday will bring rain, then some mix and a little snow on the back end for the metro. smh It's amazing how consistently inaccurate the weather forecasts are on that station. I definitely never go to KARE 11 for my weather forecasts. The weather girl also said mid to upper 30's tomorrow for high temperatures in the metro. The highest I've seen anyone forecast is 31 degrees tomorrow.

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  6. LOL...the way this lame "winter" has been going so far for the TC, KARE is probably right! It will rain its butt off in the TC, and then we'll get a couple minutes of flurries at the end!

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  7. Most models so far tonight have continued to phase the clipper faster with the system to our south..its allowing the clipper to be pulled south faster and therfore the band of snow to be pulled se. Its slowely coming together

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    Replies
    1. Um no they haven’t! They are staying apart, which means a lame inch if we’re lucky in the metro. If they had phased together we be talking major snowstorm but this lame winter continues to be a lame winter.

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  8. It never snows in the metro anymore.

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    Replies
    1. I know! That 16-inch blizzard in April? Never happened.

      But seriously, when do pitchers and catchers report?

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    2. "never use the word never"..... remember April? Were you here?

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  9. Would you look at that, the rich get richer. The same places that were in warning and got the most snow last storm are the same places that are in a advisory this go around and forecasted to get the most snow this time as well. Lame metro winter!

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  10. Gents... Minnesota is alive and well ... in New Mexico. Yet another in a series of big storms slated to come through here tomorrow tonight. I know, I know... what does this have to do with the price of peanuts in Shanghai.

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  11. NWS discussion 12/31:
    There is not much sensible weather to talk about for next week.
    The Upper Midwest will be caught in split flow, with the northern
    stream remaining along the international border, and the southern
    stream remaining across the southern United State. Temperatures
    will warm into the 30s as the storm track remains to the north, so
    Minnesota and Wisconsin will be in the warm sector. This limits
    the chances for precipitation, and certainly eliminates the
    chances for significant snowfall. As a result, have a mostly dry
    forecast with above normal temperatures for early January.
    TRANSLATION=More boring weather for metro!

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  12. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  13. System set up south! Should get some snow in the core and the warning area is going to bust.

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  14. NWS discussion 1/1/19:
    The long term looks rather benign with no significant weather
    systems expected to come near the area. The polar jet will lift
    north later this week, with the flow becoming zonal and allowing
    temperatures to warm above normal once again. An active subtropical
    jet will keep the southern CONUS a focus of more appreciable
    precipitation opportunities.
    TRANSLATION: Still boring!!!!

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    Replies
    1. With all due respect, most people that follow this site are weather enthusiasts enough that one of the first thing they do is to read the NWS discussion.
      So there is really no need to post it here all the time: it seems you are using it to vent your frustration at not exactly who?
      A lot of snow lovers (including me) here are obviously disappointed with the state of the metro winter so far, but just venting frustration at the weather forecast certainly does not change things.
      And it’s not been the case here only... Boston has 0.2 of an inch so far this winter!
      It will snow, just be patient.

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  15. The Great 2019 Minnesota Meltdown(for whatever snow you do have) commences on Thursday and lasts for the foreseeable future.....El Niño, snowlovers worst nightmare!

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    1. We all know @el niño is correct, by the time the next system comes around it will be a mix and/or rain with those warm temperatures.Pathetic winter! Have we even gotten 10” yet?

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    2. Yes we have gotten 10”, we have gotten 11”. Still pathetic...

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  16. Excellent! Looking forward to the meltdown. Maybe the side streets will be cleared of ice and I can get back on my bike! Here's to daily workouts in 2019!

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  17. We’re breaking high temperature records in January, that’s just wrong! Is winter officially cancelled now? I’m just not seeing anything resembling winter now or forthcoming.

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  18. We all should have known that after last winter (which got off to a rather slow start, but nothing like this non-winter) we would not have two good winters in a row. That seems to be a rare occurrence in southern MN anymore. Please put us winter fans out of our misery and fast forward to May/June.

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  19. Winter has not been officially canceled.
    Winter has been officially and effectively disintegrated.
    Was something to look forward to come october/november. Not anymore.
    Very sad.

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  20. There is nothing to look forward to anymore in the history of winter.

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  21. "Minnesota's Biggest Climate Change Signals" link MPR news:https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/01/02/minnesotas-biggest-climate-change-signals

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    1. I listened to that the other day. Very scary. The idea that Southern Minnesota may no longer go below zero in winter in 25-30 years sends chills down my spine.

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    2. It’s happening now! MSP has failed to go below zero yet this fall/winter and it’s January 4th and nothing in the long range screams below zero either.

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    3. I know/agree with you all. I just checked and indeed, we did not go below zero when it was 'cold' on New Year's. Unbelievable. We have never gone a whole winter without a below zero reading......... sad for winter/snow lovers and those who depend on winter/snow for their livings.

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    4. Oh yes, so sad we haven't gone below zero! Boo-hoo, so sad. I'm crying in my Trader Joe's spiced chai. So sad. Boo-hoo and such.

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  22. Hello snowlovers if I was you I would pay attention to Sunday night. Now I know we’ve been warm for a few days and snow has melted but Sunday night could be one of those “where the hell did this come from” moments. Temperatures look to be hovering right at freezing Sunday night, I know above average but could be just cold enough for a snowy surprise. Looking around at models and forecasts the snow accumulations are creeping up into the 1-3”/2-4” ranges even in the metro. I know it’s not huge but we should take what we can get this winter. Still time for this event to change colder/snowier or warmer/rainy.

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  23. As much as I hate winter, the evils of climate change are very scary. We don't get hurricanes here, but that's not saying we can't get one of those 500-year rain events that seem to happen more often than they should.

    Al Gore said this week that he sees climate change as a political issue to be nearly at a tipping point. Even dumbasses in hurricane country are beginning to believe science.

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  24. Well said @6.55pm
    You can be a winter/snow lover or hater but I think the magnitude and rapidity at which these changes seem to take place should scare everyone.

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  25. Far northern metro....


    Monday
    A chance of rain and snow before 11am, then a chance of rain between 11am and noon. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 39. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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  26. Hang tight winter fans. Indications are that consistently colder, but unfortunately not necessarily snowier, weather is on the way. We all know that El Nino wrecks havoc on MN winters, especially southern MN.

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  27. I see that it's going to get nice and cold enough for snow in the metro...AFTER the storm moves through tomorrow night. Some things never change....smh

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    Replies
    1. Yup, what a piss poor winter this has turned out to be!

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  28. More heat building in next week with highs back in the 40's for the metro. Welcome to a Louisville, KY January!

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  29. Novak's Facebook is showing the low traveling west to east (south of the metro) but we're still going to get RAIN! WTH?!?!?

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  30. The main/stronger low is actually in south-central canada, just north of the international border.
    That is what is drawing the main push of low level warm-air advection, and considering we are already starting warm you have the perfect recipe for rain, as it has been the case all the time in this riducolous non-existent winter for southern MN.

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    Replies
    1. Thank you for your response. A "Ridiculous non-existent winter for southern MN" is an understatement! Very, very disappointing!!! Northeast MN is about to get pounded with lots of snow again tonight. Lucky ducks!

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    2. Their the lucky snow dogs, we down here in the rain are the lame ducks!

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  31. I like how this anonymous is having a conversation with himself keeps it entertaining...

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  32. Looks like a big bust for nothern MN as well. Mostly freezing rain instead of snow is creating a mess there. One of the few instances where it was better to miss out on this in the southern part.
    But if warm air is able to get all the way to Duluth in mid-january we do indeed have a big climate problem in MN. Really something to be scared about.

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  33. Didnt al gore say 20 years ago that in 20 years flordia would be under water and now hes the one that has millions of dollars in the bank...

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  34. I wonder if this will be the first winter in record-keeping when the metro does not get below zero. Just went fact-checking, and 'every' winter has had at least two below-zero temps. Source: MN DNR.

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  35. I predict that the metro will officially drop below zero several times. A major shift in the weather pattern appears to be on the horizon to arrive in another week or so. We dropped to -3 here in Plymouth on January 1. The Chanhassen NWS station recorded -5 on that date. The MSP airport always comes in with warmer temperature readings than does the surrounding area.

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  36. I have always been baffled as to why the ‘official’ data only comes from one location when 1) conditions vary significantly enough across the loop and therefore the MSP reading is usually not a good representation on what actually happened and 2) considering none really lives at the airport and therefore 99% of the people living in the core metro will more certainly experience different conditions.
    Why not average out readings taken at 9 points on the loop 94/394 and I35 corridors:
    NW, N, NE, W, Center, E, and then SW, S, and SE.
    Probably too smart for a government funded agency.

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    Replies
    1. How exactly will "99% of the people living in the core metro will more certainly experience different conditions."

      That makes no sense. The temperature is not radically different anywhere in the Twin Cities from the temp at the airport. Plenty of people live within even a five-mile radius of the airport.

      Also, why don't you read up on why weather is measured at airports, instead of just blaming the government?

      http://www.weatherboy.com/weather-at-the-airport-why/

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    2. Anonymous 9.53am respondingJanuary 8, 2019 at 2:15 PM

      As someone with a commercial pilot license I probably know better than you why it is important to have safe weather stations and accurate reading at the airport. But if you carefully read what I wrote that’s not my point.
      My point is that an official data should be more representative of the variations within the area rather than being register only at a single point.
      As a matter of fact I do not agree at all that ‘the temperature is not radically different anywhere in the TC from the temp of the airport”. It actually is. I would be one of those who live within 5 miles of the airport and I have a pretty sophisticated weather station and when I compare my data with those at the airport more often than not, it is significantly different.
      Finally, you mention temperature, whereas I meant all data: rainfall, snowfall, dew point, etc etc etc.

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  37. But what is the difference between 0 and -1? It's one degree. Is it just a psychological thing? Bragging rights? Why does it matter if KMSP doesn't hit -1 if it hits 0? It makes no practical difference at all. The zero-degree mark in Fahrenheit is meaningless anyway.

    Furthermore, if we had a 100% average winter in MSP (not warm, not cold, but completely average), the lowest temp would be +4, and that is during the middle of January. That's the lowest average temp all year.

    Anytime KMSP goes below zero, that is by definition colder than average. Most folks don't understand this.

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  38. Interesting bunch of comments re: measuring temp/official temp for the metro. Now I can say, 'Schnee Meister, thanks for the Chanhassen Jan 1 temp. report. I live in St. Louis Park and now know why I can say, 'I thought it was below zero' that morning when I went outside.' :+) I live closer to Chan than I do to the airport, I reckon, and I was surprised to see reports of 'we have not yet gone below zero here.' Thanks again.

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  39. I hope the cold air comes in dry next week, and then we enter an even drier pattern for the foreseeable future. Love these snow droughts!

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    1. With all due respect, shut up, please! It’s winter it should be snowing. A lot of people count on winter in these parts for many reasons, some for a livelihood.

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    2. @Crap Winter, try to ignore the trolls. There has been at least one troll on here all season. Some people need to get a life. If they don't like winter, then move! As for my fellow winter fans, I hope the pattern turns much colder and snowier well into March! The metro is already more than 15 inches below normal season to date snowfall.

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  40. You're argument is flawed. If you don't like the weather you could move also. Many here do like this weather. Warmer temps mean lower heating bills, better driving conditions, and the long winter doesn't seem so, well, long.

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    1. If you don't like the winter, MOVE!

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    2. I think there must be a misunderstanding here:
      Given how things have been going I think more appropriate statements should be ‘if you don’t like winter, stay’.
      If you like real winter move!

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    3. Easier said than done for those whose businesses depend on winter and snow and who live here with large families that are not easy to uproot.

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  41. The economic losses associated with massive snowfalls probably offset the productivity of the few businesses who depend on snow.

    No snow also keeps plows off the road, which means less cost to the state, and less salt and other weird chemicals going into lakes and rivers.

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  42. Still boring....yawn....ok back to sleep, still nothing to see!

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  43. It's really starting to look like it will not snow an inch or more in the Twin Cities until possibly sometime in February. Is this the least snowy January on record in the Twin Cities? Is this going to be the least snowiest winter on record in the Twin Cities?

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    1. From Paul D in his recent STRIB column: "Note to self: last winter 50.8 inches fell between February and April."

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    2. Right. That means roughly 30 inches had fallen as of the end of January. That is a far cry from our current total of 11 inches...and no prospects for snow for at least another week.

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    3. To clarify, I said 30 inches, because I believe the metro's season total was around 80-81 inches.

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  44. Here is a link to historical snowfall totals in the TC metro area:https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/historical/acis_stn_data_monthly_table.html?sid=mspthr&sname=Twin%20Cities%20Area&sdate=por&edate=por&element=snow&span=season&counts=no Hope the link works if you copy/paste/go

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  45. Looks like a couple of years had under 20 inches total, but not too many. We've got time. :+)

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  46. Don't be so pessimistic with your snow expectations everyone. We are in an active weather pattern and we will FINALLY have some Arctic air in place. This should lead to snow opportunities for the 2nd half of JAN. Our first shot at snow arrives later FRI. Cross your fingers!

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    1. Too much Arctic is not good Dr. Novak, snow on Friday gets pushed south of the metro due to dry arctic air. Yeah yeah not everyone lives in the metro I’m sure I’ll hear that, so what, I live in the metro and so does about 80% of the people on here and us snowlovers would like some decent snows, not south of us not north of us in the damn metro is that so much to ask, and not just the metro in the core of the metro

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    2. Anonymous, could you please cite your source where 80% of the people here or from the metro?

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  47. Population of MN approx. 5.6M. Population the TC metro area approx 3.6, so 64%.
    That would mean that anonymous @8.05am thinks this blog over-represents metro dwellers. Possible...
    Maybe we should take a poll to verify this...

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    Replies
    1. I disagree with your assessment that 3.6 million people live in what most consider the "metro." The metro area consists of anywhere between 7 and 11 counties, depending on the definition. When most people on this blog talk about the Twin Cities area getting "hit," they are focused only inside or very near the interstate loop, but those 3.6 million people include 5 of the main 7 counties that are outside the loop.

      There have been many times when people on this blog have talked about a storm being a "bust" for the metro while I've been shoveling 6-12 inches off my driveway Carver County, within earshot of the Twin Cities NWS.

      So I would argue that's where the over-representation comes from: people thinking a Twin Cities "bust" is a 15-20 mile wide swath through the loop, when really to be a real Twin Cities "bust," the storm would have had to miss a region ranging from Elk River to Cologne to south of Hastings to Scandia, and that's only if you're talking about the 7-county metro. If you really include all of commuter country - where a high percentage of people drive into the "loop" for work, you'd have to add a good 10-15 miles in every direction from that.

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  48. Story in today's STRIB Section B titled "State is rapidly losing its winters." The top five 'fastest warming states' based on temp change per decade since 1970: 1) AZ; 2) MI; 3) MN; 4) WI; 5) VT.

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  49. Link for the story: http://www.startribune.com/u-scientists-minnesota-is-one-of-the-nation-s-fastest-warming-states/504398862/

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  50. Thinking southern Minnesota gets a few inches Friday

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    Replies
    1. Yup, but not the metro. Pathetic winter continues!

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  52. Cancel winter already!January 16, 2019 at 5:44 PM

    Winter cancelled yet? But but but it’s cold again, who cares!?!? it’s not winter unless you have snow to go with it. Looking at maps nothing decent for MSP land either!

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  53. Wx Underground is putting down 2-4” of snow on Mon/Mon night for the west Metro. Better than nothing!

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  54. Cancel winter already!January 17, 2019 at 10:49 AM

    OMG it snowed last night in the metro, I think a whole dusting or a coating or whatever you want to call it, let’s call it a trace but if you hurry outside and haven’t driven on your driveway yet you could possibly sneak out your first snow angel of 2019 with that whole dusting trace thing or whatever! Sad!

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  55. not sure why everyone is complaining, I am in a warning area for snow tomorrow. Bring It!

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    Replies
    1. That’s just it your the 20%er(or 30%, since people on here like to argue about schematics), enjoy your snow. Us 80%er’s or so will just “smile and wave, boys smile and wave”(to steal a line from the Madagascar).

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  56. It never snows in the metro anymore.

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    1. That is a lie. One should never use the word 'never.' You may think the word 'anymore' qualifies the statement, but it will be proven untrue by mid April don't you think? You don't think it will snow in the metro in the next three months? Oh, ye of little faith.

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    2. Not only that, but if you look at the latest snow depth chart you can actually say that it literally snows everywhere else except in the metro.
      Unlucky location: too north for southern stream storms (see tomorrow and Tuesday), too south for northern stream ones (see rest of winter), too east for clipper like storms (see again tomorrow). If a southern stream storm os powerful enough to get here it also brings too much warm air to get rain (see christmas period).
      Arctic air instead shoves the storms south (see again tomorrow and tuesday).
      The combination of ingredients to get a decent snowstorm in the metro are so rare that may be the happen once a winter, but climate change is making that even more and more remote.
      I’d like to be optimistic, but I just don’t see it. And since I like snow, I am moving...
      this was really the last chance I’ve given to the Metro winter. Enough of the crap!

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    3. Preach Mike preach, you pretty much nailed it, I don’t know why it’s so hard for many on here to understand our snow drought this year. MSP is 17.5” below average more then any reporting station in Minnesota.

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  57. As we all know, today's storm is just missing the core metro to the south. They say it's due to the Artic high over us, but we all really know that it's due to the giant snow shield around the core metro. The NWS forecast discussion this morning said that a larger storm will impact the area on Monday/Tuesday, and that NORTH of I-94 has the best chance of snow! LOL You can't make this stuff up! I'm sure the storm after that will be a big snowmaker for western and northern MN, while the core metro gets rain and 40 degrees! Of course it will then get nice and cold AFTER the storm moves away. This has been an absolutely awful, horrible winter for core metro winter fans! This is the winter of our discontent. We can't even pick up a lousy token inch of snow, while east, south, north and west of us there is plenty of snow! That is no exaggeration! Please, if there is a God, I implore you to please push the button and fast forward us directly to May or June to put us out of our collective misery.

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  58. Don't worry, it will snow in the downtowns, but not until mid or late March when nobody wants it, and snow is just a nuisance because it will be slushy and start to melt right away. What does next winter look like?

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  59. Just hoisted a Winter Storm Warning for us down here in southeast Minnesota.

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    Replies
    1. Lucky you! Enjoy it for those of us who will be lucky to see a stray flurry.

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  60. I am wondering whether Minneapolis/St. Paul is the only major cold weather city (population of at least 200,000) in the U.S. that has not had a snowstorm (at least 4 inches) this season? Philly, D.C., Baltimore and NYC don't count, because they are not traditionally known as major cold weather cities. Their average high temperatures in the dead of winter (late January) average from the upper 30's to mid-40's. Despite that, D.C. picked up 10.3 inches last week.

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    Replies
    1. I guess it depends on what cities you consider as major cold weather cities.

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    2. Bill, did you not make a study a fe years ago in which you sort of gauged how much ‘cold air’ the TC ‘waste’ in terms of snow potential?

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    3. Yea, actually I did. I think I calculated amount of snow per average temperature. Nothing terribly scientific. Good memory!

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    4. My "snow efficiency" analysis can be found here: http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/2013/01/when-it-comes-to-snow-efficiency-twin.html

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  61. Cancel winter already!January 19, 2019 at 8:02 AM

    OMG we got another one of those dusting/coating/tracey things again last night, I believe this time you might be able to do that snow angel on the grass.Smh But hey at least it’s freakin cold right? Sad winter continues

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  62. Well, we finally got our below-zero. Everybody can stop bellyaching about that now.

    But continue bellyaching about lack of snow. It's music to my snow-hatin' ears!

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    Replies
    1. I can't wait until the blizzards start hitting!!!

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  63. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 19, 2019 at 7:49 PM

    Snowstorm getting stronger for Monday/Tuesday. Bring it!!!

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    Replies
    1. It will find a way to weaken or barely graze the metro, I’m sure more snow will fall north or south, don’t get your hopes up. It’s not the metro’s winter this year, and after Tuesday nothing but more cold and dry air for another foreseeable future. Just fast forward to spring!

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    2. Sadly, given this season, I tend to agree. I just shook my head when I read the NWS discussion this morning that stated that the areas of enhanced snow are forecasted to be occur north and south of the Twin Cities. I thought to myself, "Surprise, surprise. What else is new". However, being the eternal optimist I will hope things change and the TC downtowns pick up more than an inch or two. We'll see.

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    3. As mentioned by @Schnee Meister the discussion:
      First of all, snow will be ongoing Monday night, and should
      become more widespread as a system organizes on Tuesday. The two
      areas of enhanced lift and heavier snow will set up northwest of
      the Twin Cities, and also southeast of the Twin Cities. Most
      locations will see at least a couple of inches by the time the
      snow ends, but the heavier snow bands in the aforementioned
      locations could see around 4 to 6. This will be a drawn out light
      snow event that will last 24 to 36 hours.

      The pathetically boring metro winter continues, be lucky if u measure an inch or two come Tuesday if you live in the core!

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  64. Just opened a new thread to discuss whatever the next chapter will bring.

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