Thursday, November 8, 2018

Winter. Is. Back.

After a few teases, winter seems to be taking a major step forward. What say you about prospects for a snowy winter? What are your predictions?

Minor accumulations expected of snow predicted by the National Weather Service.

115 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  2. I need to revise my comment: 1) Oh happy day. Everyone will be glad you/the blog are back for this winter season. 2) If I am to believe the location of squirrel nests over noaa predictions of a 'mild winter' I would say the squirrels have it. Their nests are super high, most of them, and it is really, really cold out (below normal). 3) I'm no good at predicting inches of snow, so I will leave that to the others who grace this blog. Here is to a fun winter, banter, videos, and all. Thank you for your blog!

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  3. Is this like when the ground hog pops his head out? Does waking up the blog in early November mean a nastier Winter? We shall see.

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  4. Well welcome back Bill and all other snowlovers! Nice and pretty 1-2” around the metro this morning. Good thing I just work miles from home and I take back roads home...no cursing at the traffic.

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  5. welcome back William! glad to see the blog back in action.

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  6. This below average stretch of weather (5-6 weeks now?) will surely lead to a long stretch that's above average, right? I love snow, but the below average temps wear me out.

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  7. B O R I N G! Sums it up in the weather department thru at least Thanksgiving.

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    1. Fine by me! Less worries when traveling.

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  8. The Euro is either going to be a hero or a zero on late Friday's snow system. Quite frankly, I have no idea why it has the current 12z solution.

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    1. What is it currently saying?

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    2. NWS is predicting 1-3" in the metro Friday night. As of tonight that's what they're saying. Saw Novak's maps on FB.

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    3. well im guessing the euro is putting down stupid number or something from the way im reading his message?? a little more in depth i guess would be helpful.

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  9. Lame snow event as always in the metro. Another miss to the south of course. Novak should have followed the Euro as always.

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  10. You can't say 'as always' after last year's Friday the 13th weekend snow event. However, I agree that this forecast was a bust. In St. Louis Park there is just a dusting. One official report on CoCoRaHS shows a half inch in Lakeville, and just .1 in Richfield.

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  11. Once again on this site, anything less than three feet of snow is a bust.

    This storm was not a bust. We got exactly what was forecast:

    https://publicradio1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/updraft/files/2018/11/11-16-hrrr-768x447.png

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    1. My SLP forecast was 1 to 3 inches, so to me a dusting is way off, but I won't argue. I don't sit here and call everything a bust, but per Novak's updated maps and the NWS forecast, I was expecting way more than a dusting and made a fool of myself warning my kids/grandkids to get ready for it in the metro areas where we live. I even saw Bloomington w/a total of 2-4 inches predicted at one point, and they also had a dusting. But bring it. I love snow and wish it HAD snowed where I live. "Maybe next time."

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    2. Even Mr. Novak used the 'b' bust word on his FB post today for the metro area snow 'totals' after the forecasts.

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  12. **UPDATE** From 11/12 post:
    BORING continues after Thanksgiving as well, spotty rain scattered snow showers all Mother Nature can dish up for us, but points south could see heath snowfalls.
    For you snowlovers take November as a harbinger of things to come this winter you will be very disappointed in the snow department. November has seen plenty of cold days to support snow but vet little snow to speak of, some warmer spells mixed in here and there....that will be your winter in a nutshell here in MSP land, get use to weeks like this for the next few months. Cold with no snow then warmer then rain/liquid with “some” snow on backside then cold again! Enjoy!

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  13. From Dave Dahl this evening:

    So, even though travelers shouldn’t have trouble getting to their destinations prior to Thanksgiving, getting home might be a different story. A fairly strong wave in the jet stream is expected to slide into the West on Thanksgiving Day, which will help force mild air in our direction, but it’ll also start to increase the moisture available for the Upper Midwest on Friday. Scattered rain showers should move into Minnesota during the day on Friday, with cold enough air mixing in by Friday night to create a wintry mix around here. That should continue into Saturday, with a chance for measurable snow moving in by Sunday afternoon and evening. If you are going to be traveling over the Holiday, please check the latest forecast as we go through the week
    Translation:
    Flurries with a candy coating after it rains then snow south of MSP.

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  14. I don't consider the snow system last week a bust; just a slight miss for the metro. Of course, that is where most of the public lives, so it really looks like a bust.

    Quite frankly, model guidance (especially the NAM) performed pretty well with that storm. Much of the southern 1/3 of MN received a 2"-4"+ of snow. The Euro showed nothing for southern MN & I consider that a flawed guidance.

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  15. Regarding the system after Thanksgiving. It has been been modeled in some of the guidance for the last few days, some models have shown it than lost it all together, while some have not shown it at all. Now most of the guidance is starting to show it, but the solutions are hundreds of miles apart. With the North American Oscillation (NAO) progged to go strongly negative it doesn't seem likely that any low pressure system that forms on the lee side of the Rockies will escape out to sea in the Mid Atlantic. Therefore its likely to cut up into the Upper Mississippi Valley or the Central Great Lakes area. Time will tell as they say. But finally something to follow.

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  16. Before we get excited for later this weekend:

    Another very big storm looks like it will mostly miss us on Sunday, but it will be close enough for most of us to see some small accumulations of an inch or less by Sunday night. -Ken Barlow 11/20

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  17. Yet another experienced MN meteorologist says:

    No drama this week, just flurries today and light rain Friday PM; maybe ending as a light mix Saturday. A big storm early next week slides south/east of Minnesota.
    -Paul Douglas 11/20

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  18. Seems silly, and rather irresponsible, to make that kind of call this far out. We will see.

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  19. So basically Ken Barlow and Paul Douglas confirmed my “boring” forecast from last week and yesterday. Good on them!

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    1. So now we trust the forecasters to get it right this far out? Very confusing.

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    2. @Joel of course we do, their the experts who follow this stuff and get paid big bucks to inform us. Also mark down NWS calling for late weekend storm “to follow a southern solution”, so that makes Paul and Ken and NWS. Enjoy the boring! I might add it’s going to be a challenge to get a White Christmas, I might as well start that conversation since it will be the next topic of debate.

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    3. First you said it's silly to make that kind of call, now you're saying they're right. Make up your mind.

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    4. Boring Anonymous(to help Joel)November 21, 2018 at 8:54 AM

      Follow along Joel, you got your anonymous mixed up, I’m the boring anonymous. Btw, Ken/Paul/NWS and co. all still saying south with the Sunday system. Boring continues.......

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  20. Another forecast perspective for late weekend:

    Saturday looks quiet weather-wise, but far southern Minnesota could see some snow on Sunday.

    It looks like Iowa, far southern Wisconsin and parts of northern Illinois will see the heaviest snow Sunday and Sunday night, but check later forecasts for updates.

    At this point I’d say that the Twin Cities metro area could see some snow showers on Sunday.
    -Paul Huttner MPR blogpost 11/20

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  21. Pulled from this afternoon’s AFD at NWS:


    Past this weekend, there remains a strong signal of a powerful jet
    aiming toward the west coast. With a large storm system expected
    to form in the Gulf of Alaska, the on-slot of Pacific storm
    systems look reasonable through the extended period. For the Upper
    Midwest, our weather will likely be controlled by the strength of
    the negatively supported NAO. Although teleconnections support a
    more positive PNA next week, the combination of the two
    interaction leads to a colder pattern. A positive PNA acts to
    shift Canadian air masses south over the central U.S. This +PNA in
    conjunction with a negative NAO also supports a semi-persistent
    Great Lakes/Hudson Bay upper low. This pattern also support a more
    drier scenario vs. a wetter due to the drier Canadian air masses.
    Translation:
    COLD AND BORING, pretty much sums up November, can anyone say El Niño!

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    1. This has nothing to do with El niño... It is all the teleconnections tanking and blocking causing Canadian HP to block this pattern south of climatology.

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    2. Really!?!? That is exactly the setup of El Niño where the subtropical jet is stronger which drives systems west to east rather then cutting up into the Great Lakes, a typical El Niño tends to be dry here with much higher precipitation in the central and southern states, that’s what your seeing this November. Will it change?, who knows but if your a snow lover it’s going to be drips and drabs of snow and boring long periods.

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    3. The anonymous' going at it. That is a new one. hahaha

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  22. Pulled from this evening’s AFD at NWS:
    Looking ahead into the following weekend, southerly flow will bring
    widespread rain across the region as another system develops over
    the central CONUS.

    This is for the following weekend, we’re into December by then, what’s this? rain now, cold enough for snow after today then cold air exhausted more rain! Hey at least it’s not boring!

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  23. Plymouth Weather LoverNovember 24, 2018 at 8:04 AM

    My first post this winter snow season. Happy to be back and bringin it!!! I am very excited about snow chances later this coming week. Cold weather in place, southwest flow developing. Just give me that buckling jet stream and I will bring you a bring it!! Let’s go!!

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    1. @Plymouth, it’s rain dude your bringing the rain, or at best a mix. Too warm. Please go read the AFD from NWS. No need for any unnecessary excitement. Sad snow season continues, either it’s too cold and snow to the south OR too warm with rain. Going to be a disappointing snow season, doesn’t it seem it’s trending that way already?

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    2. I think you may be right.
      I usually disagree with him but this year Paul Huttner may be right that consistent snow cover will be difficult to achieve.
      I see this winter as a few days in mid 20s (dry of course) followed by ice or mix storms in the mid 30s. A couple of clippers here and there dropping an inch, rapidly melting within a couple of days.
      Maybe one serious snowstorm (6+) mid january, followed by 2-3 days below zero and then back to mid30s for february and march.
      El Nino adding up to the general trend of warming winters is a death penalty for the Twin Cities winter (which by the way is inmy opinion the biggest scam in the history of meteorology.)

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  24. This morning Paul Douglas blog:

    While wet snow shuts down Chicago today, a cold north wind blows across Minnesota. The first half of this week will feel more like January, with a coating of flakes late Thursday. By the time real moisture returns next weekend the atmosphere should be mild enough for a rainy mix. What a waste of cold air. So far winter is "all hat and no cattle".
    -Paul Douglas 11/25

    Couldn’t of said it better then myself, what a waste of cold air, what a lousy November!

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  25. I've seen a lot of people list 2002-03 as an analog year. That year we didn't see a decent storm until Groundhog Day, and then March was a blow torch. Hope for the same this year!

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  26. I’m seeing 40’s by weeks end again. Rain. Ba-humbug!

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    1. Highs in the 40's out of the forecast here! Looks like Saturday only hits 37 now. Liking the trends!

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  27. Surprise surprise NOT, nobody should be surprised by this:
    The pattern becomes more active across the country again for late
    week into the weekend. There is considerable spread with the
    evolution of the pattern, but one trend of late has been to
    suppress a larger cyclone well to the south of the area again
    Saturday and Sunday. Given the split flow pattern and a strong,
    zonal subtropical jet across the southern U.S., this isn`t a
    surprising development. It still bears watching, but unless the
    subtropical jet buckles northward some in the eastern U.S., it is
    unlikely to bring much of an impact here.

    The very tame,very little snow of November continues on, boring is an understatement, at least you have your flurries today and tomorrow and maybe an whole inch on Thursday.
    I’m issuing an BCW(Brown Christmas Watch) today, in effect for the entire metro area for the next 29 days, expiring 12/25 at 6am!

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  28. Hey guys and gals. Don't be down to much on this weekends system
    yet. I'm looking at the teleconnections and it seems as the Arctic Oscillation will quickly go from strongly negative to very near neutral. Meaning that cold air intrusion may not drive this system as far south as the last major storm. I'm not ruling out a major hit for the southern metro yet.

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  29. If you go by what the ECMWF has been advertising the last few days then southern Minnesota should be paying attention I would think. Does anyone know how it performed with the last storm?

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    1. It will miss the metro, nothing but a nuisance for us!

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    2. We don't all live in the metro.

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    3. Don't mind the anonymous trolls. Anyway, the Euro was probably the "best" out of the global models on the last system, if I recall correctly. This setup is quite complex and models seem to be struggling a bit. Definitely something to keep an eye on though, especially south of the metro!

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    4. Yup don’t listen to the anonymous trolls because we don’t know how about the expert trolls(this from Dave Dahl):
      The good news from this type of pattern is the milder temperatures that develop in between the rounds of precipitation. We should see our highs climb back above freezing later this week, which means any snow that does fall shouldn't last very long. By the weekend, another wave in the jet stream is expected to slide across the center of the country, which should put Minnesota on the north side of precipitation that falls. Even though it might start out as a wintry mix on Friday with temps in the 30s, it should change over to mainly snow by Saturday night and Sunday. It probably won’t be a lot of snow, but it’ll more than likely become a nuisance again as we head through the weekend.

      Will you look at that, he uses the same wording I did, NUISANCE! Carry on....

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    5. Dave Dahl is a meteorologist and uses his name.

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    7. I find it difficult to understand why some people think that people live exclusively in the Twin Cities and that anyone outside of that is irrelevant. Silly thought really. To answer your question, the Euro has been pretty solid so far this season. Latest runs showing Rochester area and a bit north and south having some good snow. Will have to wait and see if it holds!

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  30. This is going to be another scary system to 4cast with BUST potential high due to the sharp snow total gradient on the north side of the snow band. This gradient should set-up somewhere near or on the MSP metro. Here we go again.

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  31. This system is similar in nature to the storm that hit IA/IL last weekend. It has the potential to over perform for some.

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  32. The latest GFS model is now in line with the Euro model. Looks like the system won't be moving as fast and will move further north west. Good news for snow lovers in the MSP area! :D

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    1. But the 06z NAM says exactly 0" for MSP!!

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    2. Though the 12z NAM leans toward 3-5" for MSP!!

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  33. NWS better tighten up that snow gradient over MSP.

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  34. BTW, the 'unknown' post above was mine.

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  35. Would someone please share the link to view the models? I used to have it but lost the link....

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    1. I've always used this one to view GFS.... http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KMSP
      And I use Coolwx.com to view maps.

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    2. Pivotal Weather is my go to for everything except the Euro because alot of that is behind a pay wall and can't be accessed through Pivotal.

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  36. Ok so we got 2” instead of the 1” I said a few days ago, be happy if you got the 2” because this next system on Saturday promises a metro bust, maybe another 1”, that EURO dropping further and further south, GFS takes the cake on this one they were consistently south for awhile. What does this all mean in the big picture, like I said awhile back “drips and drabs” of snow, overall boring. I’m sure some of you already noticed the extended dryness (aka boring)weather and of course dry cold after this weekend.

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    1. NAM giving some interesting numbers. GFS is actually way north of where it was 48 hours ago. I think Rochester and southern MSP do good on this.

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  37. Virtually all models....CMC/NAM/GFS give the metro core 2-5”, the lone outliner right now is EURO which gives 1”, pretty crazy when the EURO just yesterday was the model that showed the most for MSP. Oh well that’s weather I suppose, I can see a low-end advisory for the core on this one, but nothing more, this is no April blizzard but any stretch of the imagination.

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  38. 00z NAM says 3-4” for the core!

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  39. So the American models are both upping the ante for MSP land....the latest runs
    06z GFS: 4-6
    12z NAM: 6-8
    Let’s see if these higher trends continue could be warning level snows in the core!

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  40. What is up with the NAM? Some very high totals around the Midwest. GFS seems to be slowly moving the snows north.

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  41. Might there be a video coming from Novak? there is life outside the core of the metro.

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  42. Plymouth Weather LoverNovember 30, 2018 at 2:09 PM

    Ok then. Let's bring this thing!!!

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  43. The closer we are getting to the storm the slower the system seems to be moving, and its also staying at a stronger intensity for quite a bit longer. I'm starting to think this storm may overachieve and surprise quite a few people by the end of it.

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  44. NOAA has posted a WWA advisory for the TC Metro starting at noon Saturday plus south/east and into western WI; winter storm warning SW MN. As PWL says: bring it!

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  45. Tom & Bill, can we expect a video after the 00z runs come down? I'd like to hear about the dynamics of the incoming storm. I'd also be interested in hearing a little about stacked lows and or negative tilt if you do decide on a video. Let it snow!

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  46. WOW!! I see you 00z NAM, metro snowlovers will be happy!

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  47. Novak noted earlier today that there was a high bust potential. This looks like another sharp gradient over the metro with almost nothing far north and 5 or 6” far south. Just a 50 mile change in the track could really mess up forecasts.

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  48. Plymouth Weather LoverDecember 1, 2018 at 12:31 PM

    Wow! No chatter at all!! Cmon. This is a decent size storm and it is not certain who will get what. I would love to hear some thoughts!! Bring them!!

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    1. It's now snowing basically 'sideways' here in St. Louis Park... how about where you are, PWL? This wind is going to create some interesting formations on roofs and on the ground. That's the only chatter I've got at this point.

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  49. The point forecast for Minneapolis is now showing 4-7 inches

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  50. The radar was just showing a band of moderate snow moving into the southern burbs. The NWS said that this would be a full blown blizzard if the arctic air wasn't cut off from the system. I still hope we all get a few inches to add to what we picked up the other night. It's looking and feeling Christmas-y!

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  51. So got a question, we have this initial band of moderate to heavy snow coming in that drops a few inches, is that it? Radar returns has just spotty precipitation beyond the band all the way down to Des Moines, how is it we going to reach the 6-10” forecasted down by I-90?

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  52. Plymouth Weather LoverDecember 1, 2018 at 3:09 PM

    Here it comes! Snowing hard in Plymouth! Bring it!!!

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  53. Hey guys, sorry I’m late to the party but as they say better late then never! Snowing hard in Golden Valley as well! Bring it X 2.

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  54. I dont know how long this current band is supposed to last, but it started with a vengeance in Waconia around 2:30 and visibility is currently well under 1/2 mile. If this continues for awhile, we are severely under-advised without a Winter Storm Warning. If we get this band and then it’s over, we will end up with a nice couple of inches at least.

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  55. Snowing hard in Plymouth!!!

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  56. Here’s some chatter, that’s it? It hit like a ton of bricks for an hour now it’s barely flurrying. Dare I say the b-word.

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  57. Per KARE11 Bloomington has already picked up a cool 3". But yeah, it's supposed to 'lighten up' now though another few inches could fall overnight. That was quite a snow burst this afternoon!

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  58. About 3 inches in South Mpls, max. Already compacted and melted some. Warm outside.

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  59. Welp....so much for over-performing

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  60. Nice to see that whatever did fall isn't leaving anytime soon!

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    1. It will, give it a week. Early next week temps climb above freezing and near 40 by 12/12and if there’s precipitation it will be in the form of liquid. Won’t take much to get rid of these 4-5” in our yards. Two drip and drabs systems followed by 10 days of cold and dry. NWS said it best beign weather ahead. Brown Christmas is still on the table even though it’s white out now.

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  61. I think the worst part of this storm forecast-wise was when people were still calling for a "good 3 inches" to come over night even in the metro core (whenever that first band moved through). Not far from the airport, we got maybe a quarter inch after that first band of 2.5 inches or so came through.

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  62. For those like me who are interested in and/or who scoffed at my early, early post about 'where the squirrels build their nests'..... November was running below normal, and here is a little quote from kstp this morning: "Over the next several days, temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees below average, Yuhas said." So far, the squirrels are doing better at predicting temperatures than the noaa seasonal outlooks that had us at a warm fall/move into winter!!!!! P.S. It is pretty out there with the new snow.

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    1. @WeatherGeek, that’s great and all but who really cares about all this cold and below average temperatures if it isn’t going to be accompanied by decent snows. The current Oct/Nov/Dec snowfall is below average and we will be adding to that the next 10 days or so with each passing dry day!

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  63. Thaw next week= bye-bye snow!

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  64. Yep, CPC predicting above-normal temps in the 6-14 day forecast, so 9-17 December.

    Let's see if that verifies. Let's hope so!!

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  65. NOAA gave itself a good grade for last weekend's snow event. https://www.weather.gov/mpx/1Dec2018grade

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  66. Bone dry and nothing on the horizon

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  67. Looks like the warmup won't make it past freezing!

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    1. Try again! Both Jonathan Yuhas and Paul Douglas are forecasting mid to upper 30’s next weekend. Solid few days of thaw means melting snow.

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  68. Looks like the boring is getting more boring if that’s possible.

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    1. You got that right, down right boring for this snowlover. Our snow deficit is -5.5 and counting this season with each dry and miserably boring day that passes

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  69. Paul Douglas had this to say on his blog last night:

    The pattern isn't ripe for heavy snow anytime soon, although models are hinting at a more formidable potential for flakes 2 days before Christmas.

    Maybe something way way out there! But wouldn’t it be par for the course after all these dry days and relative ease on the roads that Mother Nature will find a way to muck it up for holiday traveling, like they say Mother Nature will do what Mother Nature wants to do!

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  70. Will be touch and go on white Christmas this year, seeing a lot of thawing temps next 10 days and I’m already seeing blades of grass and open spots here and there, if it doesn’t snow next two weeks I give it a 50/50 shot of white or brown Christmas.

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  71. I like when other states' snowstorms make our news page headlines, because it's so boring here. Bring the boring! Bring it!

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  72. From Ken Barlow this morning:
    I don’t see any Arctic air invasions aiming toward Minnesota for the next 7-10 days. I also do not see any signs of any major snowstorms. That’s not to say we won’t see little bouts of snow once in a while, but no blockbuster storms are out there lurking and ready to pounce!
    The warmer air looks like it may actually stick around into Christmas Day and perhaps beyond.

    Translation: Boring and El Niño-ish

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    1. GOOD. I'm traveling over Christmas and I don't need snow mucking it up.

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  73. Now we have an air quality alert until 6 p.m. Thursday in the metro. Is that usual in the 'winter'??? What a strange fall/transition into winter we are having.

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  74. What a crappy start to winter and now a brown Christmas to boot...pretty dismal out there....won’t look or feeling like Christmas this year!

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  75. 80% chance of above normal temps for 18-22 Dec. C'mon El Nino!!

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  76. ��BROWN CHRISTMAS WARNING ��
    now in effect for the next 10 days for the metro area!

    Huge patches of grass now showing up around the metro with at least 5 days of thawing weather in the week and nothing significant snow wise on the horizon.

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  77. “I’m dreaming of a brown Christmas” sounds so much better, doesn’t it? Embrace the thaw, embrace El Niño, consider it Santa’s gift this year!

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  78. NWS:
    Looking at the larger scale from the GEFS, we
    really are not seeing any signs of the large scale pattern
    possibly becoming more favorable for seeing more significant
    systems here until after Christmas, when the GEFS shows mean
    troughing setting up to our southwest. Till then, it`s a pretty
    benign weather pattern for us.

    Translation: NWS officially calling for a brown Christmas!

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