Snowiest Week of the Year?

Snow lovers in Minnesota can hardly contain themselves as two significant snowstorms, nearly back-to-back, appear headed for the Twin Cities. For some background on the possibilities, check out the video we did with Tom Novak. Happy storm watching!

More Cold... and a Little More Snow

Graphic depicting volume of sub-zero cold.

The brutal cold is here for the long haul according to Tom Novak of NovakWeather. We spoke with Tom this evening to learn more about the cold that's in store as well some snow that appears headed our way for Friday.

And how cold has it been? I thought the graphic to the right was particularly instructive, showing a total of almost 20 full days of sub-zero weather. It would appear we're headed to challenge the largest number of sub-zero hours at MSP airport since 1946.

Twitter links: NovakWeather, Minnesota Forecaster.

Facebook links: NovakWeather, Minnesota Forecaster.

As Sub-Zero Subsides, Will "Warmth" Herald More Snow?

The god-awful stretch of 500-degree below weather seems nearly gone. But several local meteorologists are seeing hints of a more active, snowier pattern ahead. While your proud website host is off to California in search of greener pastures, use this space to discuss upcoming snow possibilities.

Two of our favorite meteorologists look ahead at possible snow.

Thursday Night Snow and a Weekend Snowstorm for the Midwest:The Weather Classroom

Some snow appears in the offing for Thursday night and our resident chief meteorologist, Tom Novak from @MinnesotaWeather, says to keep a close eye to the near southeast over the weekend. Here's our latest video.

Also, Tom and I are interested in your feedback on our video. What works for you? What doesn't? We really want you to be honest so we can make it better. Please leave your thoughts in the comment section. Thanks!

Dr. Novak says to keep a watchful eye to the southeast for a storm that's yet to write off the Twin Cities.

Wide Disparity in Forecast for Dec. 3-4 Snow Event

With winter precipitation expected to begin by midnight, here’s the latest summary from the various forecasters. KSTP has the most aggressive forecast with 6-10” forecast. Accuweather and Minnesota Forecaster in-house forecaster Tom Novak were on the lower side. As we’ve seen fairly often over the last several years, KSTP is at the high end for TV forecast outlets and KARE is at the low end. (It’s been suggested that you can take half the KSTP forecast and arrive at the KARE forecast; that seems to be the case in this instance.)

We were struck by the NWS comment regarding their confidence in the forecast. A tweet at 3:04 p.m. this afternoon stated, “Confidence where that rain/snow line will setup is below average this close to the event.)”

Finally, if you’d like to learn more about the atmospheric dynamics causing the upcoming storm scenario, view our video with forecaster Tom Novak.

The all-important jet stream.

WCCO: 3-6 (5 p.m. news)
KSTP: 6-10” (late afternoon blog update)
KMSP: Either missed it or no totals were mentioned
KARE: Says 2-5” but shows model data depicting 5” (4:57 website video)
MPR: 3-7 per 4:07 blog update
NWS: 4-9” (weather.gov – Minneapolis)
TWC: 5-8 per map on NBC News
Accuweather: 1-3”
Tom Novak: 2-4”
Strib: 2-4” (blog last updated 8:42 a.m.)

Gobbsmacked! Most Forecasters See Hefty April Snowfall Into Midweek

Approximately 1.5 inches of snow fell Tuesday night. Most of the updated forecasts below reflect forecast snowfall from Wednesday night into Thursday night.

Here's our in-depth weather discussion with Tom Novak of @NovakWeather from late Tuesday. Get the inside scoop like you've never gotten it before.

Some have coined this season "Winter II." It certainly doesn't resemble anyone's idea of spring. Forecasters are tossing around some pretty significant amounts. As of 6 p.m. this Tuesday evening, most forecasters were predicting approximately 6 inches of snow while others (MPR and KSTP) were predicting a little more. A notable exception was the National Weather Service, which forecast a whopping 8-18" of snow.

On paper (on monitor?) the amounts forecast suggest a significant storm were this midwinter; however, with April's snow accumulating inhibitors -- high sun angle, relatively warm surface temps, temps edging above freezing, etc. -- and a long-duration snow, we wonder if the impact will be as great as the public might otherwise be lead to believe.

Blue represents forecasts from late news.
Orange-ish font represents forecast as of mid evening Wednesday.

WCCO: 4-8"(Snow meter showed 9.9". Noted half of snow might not accumulate) (6 to 10", meter shows 9.3" for MSP)
KSTP: 6-10" with some 12" amounts. Likely a Top 10 April Snowfall (meaning 7.5") (6-12, maybe a bit more in some place; 1-2 by morning, mostly on grass) (6 to 12")
KMSP: 5-8"(8-10" north, 4-8" south, 7.5 snow meter, "might be conservative" "With compaction, overall 5-8" for metro" "maybe an inch by morning") (5 to 10")
KARE: 3-8" (showed 6" for metro) No change. (6 to 10")
NWS: 8-18" (weather.gov for KMSP -- see graphic below) No change. (7 to 15")
Strib: waiting for update (6-12") "This factors in relatively warm ground temperatures and some melting of snow on contact."(4-8" additional)
MPR: 6-12"(another to 5 to 10"by Thursday night)
Accuweather: 4-8"
The Weather Channel: 4-8" (weather.com) (Per commenter below, forecast for 7-13" -- weather.com is very confusing.
Novak Weather. 6-10" (Wednesday night thru Thursday noon)

NWS forecast (weather.gov for KMSP) on Tuesday evening.