Who's crystal clear and who's all wet when it to comes to Minnesota weather forecasters?
From Dave Dahl KSTP weather blog this evening:The OutlookThe whole week is going to be cold, with overnight lows ending up below zero, and daytime highs only reaching the low teens. By the end of the week there are signs that a change might occur. The jet stream could shift just enough to bring warmer air our way along with a healthy amount of moisture again. Right now it looks as though snow will move in late Friday night, with snow continuing into Saturday. Obviously the track of this storm will determine where the heaviest snow will fall, but it does look as though we’ll get measurable snow here in the Twin Cities and over most of the southern half of our state. Keep checking in for updates as we get closer to the weekend.
NWS seems a bit conflicted on the snowfall for later today and tonight.......reading their discussion it could become an "overperformer":There is a stark difference between the hi-res models and theglobal models with QPF. Hi-res models are much more bullish withnearly a tenth of an inch, whereas the global models are almostdry. Forecast soundings on the HRRR and RAP are indeed impressivewith a 10kft deep DGZ and strong lift throughout that layer. Sucha set up would generate a healthy snowshield and at least acouple inches given a 20-25:1 ratio. The HopWRF is beginning toreach the period of snow and is similar to the RAP/HRRR with ahalf inch to one inch of snow by 00Z south of I-94 and west ofI-35. Forecast soundings on the NAM and GFS are not as moist andare colder above 5kft, resulting in a shallower DGZ. At this pointI am favoring more toward the hi-res guidance but given the modeldifferences it`s hard to buy all into one side. Therefore, took acompromise of solutions which resulted in no changes fromprevious forecasts and still calls for about an inch of snowacross the CWA and 70-80 percent PoPs.
The NWS has pretty much put the kabosh on our weekend snow, Dave Dahl.
Early February has always been prime time for the clipper parade. Unfortunately, the parade is going through Iowa this year. *sad face*
Unfortunately you’re right. Let’s face it, but for the big storm a couple of weeks ago suddenly shifting north, the Twin Cities would still be far behind normal to date in regard to snowfall. It’s one thing for a big storm to hit the East Coast, but the worst feeling is when a series of storms keep sliding just to the south of us.
NWS disc. this afternoon. Dry!******Early next week, two upper waves will merge across the PacificNorthwest and dive south through California while the trough becomesvery deep and sharp, with a strong positive tilt. This strongsystem in California will retrograde through midweek, and it`sinfluence on the upper flow pattern will be to send southwest floweast of the upper trough, across most of the CONUS. Meanwhile, whenthis system becomes a closed low, it separates from the main jet asa new reinforcing jet to the north arrives across the western halfof Canada, shunting the arctic air north of the jet. Nosignificant storms look to develop near the midwest, so a mostlydry forecast continues, with high confidence of at least warmertemepratures for all of next week.
We will get snowstorms in late March when nobody wants one.
Well, it rarely snows of any significance in the Twin Cities when it's cold, and apparently it's not going to snow when it warms up next week either. Where are those who a week ago were predicting a snowy February? They must have been referring to Chicago, who got walloped last night, will get a smaller system this weekend followed by a larger, stronger system early next week. As a poster stated last night, we will probably get snowstorms at the end of March when nobody wants one. Ho hum...
Snow is great at anytime!!...March snow is the best, don't stick around too long, it's usually wet so the snowball making is the best as well as the snow man. And it's usually not so damn frigid that you can go out and enjoy it. Plus still making money because it has to be plowed.
Lord knows there is no snow to talk about (what else is new?). Therefore, I thought I would post an interesting tidbit about the winter temps so far this season (at least I think it's interesting). At the MSP airport the December temps only averaged .8 degrees below normal and January's monthly temps averaged 1 degree above normal. There were 3 thaws in January, so I'm not surprised that we didn't end up below normal for the month temperature-wise, but I thought for December would have averaged colder than it did. Of course the temps at the airport are not always reflective of the temps elsewhere in the metro. For example, here in Plymouth the temps are often 2-3 degrees colder than what the airport is reporting (particularly the nighttime low temps). This has translated to about 25-26 days so far this season with below zero readings here, as opposed to the airport, which I believe is sitting around 23 days at or below zero. I think the average number of days with readings at or below zero for a TC winter is 24 days. At any rate, my main point is that people keep saying how cold this winter has been, while in actuality the temperatures for December and January combined were roughly "normal", statistically neither above nor below average. February is off to a cold start and there are some rumblings about March being cold and snowy. We'll see what happens on those two fronts. I think the temperature data so far this season just goes to show how cold a "typical" Minnesota winter is, even here in the southern part of the state. Also, as most of us know, it can and does get a lot colder here in the TC than it has been this winter so far. Can anybody say thick ice?! http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=MPX&sid=msp&pil=CF6&recent=&specdate=2018-01-31+11%3A11%3A11http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=MPX&sid=msp&pil=CF6&recent=&specdate=2017-12-31+11%3A11%3A11
Great stuff! Thanks for sharing. As most people know, I'm sitting more than 1200 miles away in Albuquerque, where it's been the warmest winter to date. But from where I sit -- and seeing the temperatures as they've been -- it feels like it's been a colder winter than usual from the gut. Sub-zero cold seems to make more of an impact than a few renegade, if much appreciated 40s, are. Yathink?(Forecast of 69 here in Albuquerque today, but "cooling dramatically" to 49 tomorrow. :-)
Look at the differences in temperatures (primarily the low temperatures) so far this month between the Minneapolis International airport and the NWS in Chanhassen. What an example of the urban heat island effect.http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=MPX&sid=mpx&pil=CF6&recent=&specdate=2018-02-28+11%3A11%3A11http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=MPX&sid=msp&pil=CF6&recent=&specdate=2018-02-28+11%3A11%3A11
Canadian model showing a healthy snowstorm for the the metro 7-8 days from now. Let's see if it stays around or goes.
When the Euro shows it let me know.
GFS and Canadian models are continuing to advertise a fairly sizable snow system(6+)in the Upper Midwest early next week, 2/19-2/20 timeframe!
Both have shifted south now, GFS shows nothing..Canadian shows "some" snow. Plenty time to watch!
NWS is now showing a chance of RAIN for Sunday...
NWS shows rain to start, but then all snow!
Dave Dahl always the snow optimism(from the KSTP weather blog 2/12)The OutlookThe overall pattern really begins to change over the weekend. Instead of the northwesterly flow of air coming at us from northwestern Canada, a large dip in the jet stream develops over the western part of our country. This really hasn’t happened all winter long. That will warm us up above average again Saturday and Sunday with highs both days reaching the mid 30s. The other thing that comes along with the warmth is a lot of added moisture. Right now it looks as though snow and rain will break out over southern Minnesota as early as late Saturday, with a pretty good chance of snow Sunday into early next week. Get the shovels out again!
One of these days he will be right. Even a blind squirrel occasionally finds a nut here and there.
NWS also hinting at some changes come late weekend into early next week(from their 2/12 afternoon discussion):Looking ahead to next week, there is good agreement that thelongwave trough over the western CONUS by late in the weekend willstay put for at least the first half of next week. The flow willbecome more amplified with the southeast CONUS seeing a very strongridge building in response to the amplified troughing to the west.Our region will be very near the thermal gradient between thewestern trough and eastern ridge, which could lead to more activeweather. For temepratures, the guidance at this time is favoringthe western trough reaching our area, which would lead to below normal temperatures returning.
Dave Dahl is all in I’m Monday/Tuesday significant storm on Tuesday a week away. 2-13.
GFS painting a healthy 6-12" of snow for all of metro come Monday/Tuesday.
So get ready Iowa!?? :-D
Both the 12Z GFS and Canadian models dropping over 12" in metro for Monday/Tuesday. Let the model dance begin, where will the heavy snow end up? Duluth or Twin Cities or Rochester or Des Moines.
How about St. Cloud for a change?
Need. Video. Soon. Please? Bring it!
Let's just say if your rooting for snow you want the 00z Canadian model to verify.
NWS backing off a major storm, says it will come in three unorganized weak systems not a big deep cyclone. Advisory level snows look likely unless your hit by all three periods of snow which would exceed 6" but this has high bust potential for many cities because it's not one widespread snowstorm. Good luck to the Have and have nots with this one.
Based on the NWS discussion this afternoon, a major snowstorm isn’t anywhere near being in the cards for the Twin Cities anymore. What else is new? Surprise, surprise...NOT!
Thank goodness. Bring on spring
The gfs seems to think otherwise at this point.
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No comments out there?
Not much comments needed, this is not a snowstorm it's an "event", purely because it's not all snow many periods mixed with freezing rain/drizzle also QPF has come way down. Yes it will be impactful on Monday because we will have snow on top of ice and that's never good for driving but in terms of high snowfall this is not it.
Dave Dahl is jizzing in his pants while the National Weather Service is having none of it. KSTP saying 3-6" for the metro through Tuesday, less northwest, more southeast. https://www.facebook.com/KSTPTV/photos/a.384759236951.163883.313623491951/10156146968536952/?type=3&theater NWS going with 1-2" for the extreme north Metro. https://www.weather.gov/mpx/weatherstory
I wouldn't even call 3-6" a snowstorm! What we got a few weeks back(10+") now that's a storm!
It appears there is an ice storm on the way for the metro for Monday?
Yup, what crap, temps in the 20's and mostly ice. Metro seems always to get hosed one way or another.
Didn't they just have a huge snowstorm a few weeks back?
Yep. I think the "metro always misses" stuff should be muted after that storm.
Just recorded a new video with Dr. Novak on Monday/Tuesday situation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MH_6g6v3BXQ
This has become a non-event real fast! Why are we even in a winter weather advisory? Here in Blaine all mention of ice was taken out and I have an inch tomorrow and inch tomorrow night forecasted, an advisory for that. And Bill while the metro/airport got 12" in the last big storm, only 4" here so yeah still waiting for a decent storm this year!
This is a lie. Blaine received around 8 inches in the last event.
Jonathan Yuhas(KSTP) seven day forecast shows chances of precip(mostly snow) every day except for Wednesday....can't remember the last time we've had an active week like this forecasted in winter. As for the amount of snow we see that remains to be seen, I will tell you in 7 days.
Have had an icy/snowy mix since about 8:00am, but now it's turning into a plain moderate snow....good coating of ice everywhere!
We had a brief period of mix here in Plymouth this morning. Otherwise, it's been all snow, albeit light.
Pretty sad that the temperature here in Fridley has been stuck on 19 all day and all day it has been an icy mix, lucky if there's an 1/2" accumulation of snow! It's always something with our weather systems here in MSP land, in the past 19 could have been too cold with dry air suppressing the storm to the south but today its "to warm aloft"......I guess the storm a few weeks ago was the exception to rule(and even that played havoc with snow gradients right up to the day of the storm). And please don't let me hear the models handled this storm well because up until Friday night models were showing all snow and in some cases heavy snow for the core. Mix/ice was not introduced until the weekend.
Wave #2 of precipitation this morning was pretty lame, was expecting at least a couple of inches in the core, at least that's what everyone was saying last night!
Just to clarify:All soundings showed the whole column below 850mb below freezing as you can see here:http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=naconf&TYPE=TEXT%3ALIST&YEAR=2018&MONTH=02&FROM=1912&TO=2012&STNM=72649&REPLOT=1Freezing drizzle in this circumstance had nothing to do with the "warm air aloft' as many weather forecaster implied on the various TV stations.It was caused by a different phenomenon: weak upward vertical motion with a deep dry layer above a strong inversion and a very shallow moist layer below the inversion which prevented heteregenous nucleation in the clouds (ie no seeding of ice from above). In other words although the column was below freezing it was too dry (not moist enough) for ice nuclei to form in the clouds. In these circumstances water droplets stay supercooled all the way to the surface.
Thanks Physics G.... my head just exploded :-D
The 18Z GFS just laided out over a foot of snow right thru the heart of the metro for Saturday!They also show 2-3" for Thursday!Let the comments begin...either in favor of or against the snow!
I'm in favor of snow and no more freezing rain, please. Freezing rain is back in the forecast for Thursday night/Friday morning. Booooooooooo.
I believe the last few runs of the gfs have been showing some decent snows from southern mn to se/ne Iowa and now back north again. Hoping Novak can provide any feeling on this.
So PWL tell me your reaction when you read this morning's NWS discussion....my guess is you couldn't contain your excitement and might have had an accident in your draws :)when you read that 3 separate winter storms may affect us over the next week, each sounding more significant then the next! Is there such a thing as dancing too much PWL?
Lets look at one system at a time, for Thursday's system it is surely looking like an advisory-type snowfall, the following models are showing:-GFS 06Z 3-5"-Canadian 00Z 3-5"-NAM 06Z 2-4"Looking out in GFS fantasy land, because snowlovers love to do that too themselves, the 10-day snowfall output(which I did a double take on) ending 3/2 shows 28"-34" across the metro. Not possible right? We shall see!
On his FB page: "Novak Weather Between now & Sunday, 6"-10" in the MSP metro." As long as it's not ice, as PWL says: "Bring It!"
I think that's somewhat conservative.....Thursday not alone could be a good 4-5"!
Remember when all the armchair meteorologists assured us that the Twin Cities would never get another flake of snow again?
those were good time :)
They may have been a bit extreme on that, but let us remind ourselves that officially the TC are as of today 7.5" below normal, which is significant...
Wait for it...
7.5 below normal? by Sunday that will be different ;)
Winter Weather Advisory up now for the Twin Cities starting Thursday noon with 3-5 inches predicted............ hoping it holds...........
NWS still not discussing totals for Saturday's system, but did note in their latest discussion: "if this set-up were tocome to fruition, it would be a winter storm warning-worthy eventfor our forecast area. Plenty of time and potential for shiftingat this point, but given models are already beginning to hone inon a track, it bears close watching."
Isn't that interesting how a single storm changes people's mind?Weren't it for the 12-incher a few weeks ago, we would have tons of post saying that "surely the storms will shift south, or the dry-tongue or precyp type etc".Instead since that storm provided evidence that yes, it does snow in the Metro Area everybody is now jumping on the snow wagon.It's hilarious to me. As if we really believe that people's opinions or predictions or suggestions do impact the weather.Mother Nature will always find a way to prove to us that She is command. We are just guest and observers.
Sure seems like 12" by Sunday across the metro is not out of the question. One smaller storm followed by a bigger hit Saturday. Still a bit early to make a final call for Saturday. I would expect a video from Bill and Novak soon (hint, hint)!
Video coming up with Novak starting at 9. Any questions for the weather doctor?
It would be interesting to hear an explanation on why the last storm was mostly freezing rain while the temperatures were a good 10 degrees below freezing.
Question: All models are saying snow for both Thursday and Saturday, but with different qpf thus different snow amounts. Does he just go with one model to make his forecast, does he throw outliers out or does he blend them all to come up with his forecast for his clients.
Who’s he?Read the NWS forecast discussions and you can get a feel how they choose which model and when. Many factors.
My question was for Bill and Novak....I read the NWS discussion daily (thank you very much), but I like to hear how Novak comes to his forecast and snowfall predictions to his clients.
Question for Novak: With a negatively tilted closed off low (am I right) for Saturday, could this mean that totals could "get out of control" for that system? Bring It!!!!
Wind? Drifting potential? Sharp cut off of snow totals?
New video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huwFEVs_ksE
Love the video! I am now doing to dance the night way and hope for a bigger than expected initial round leading to blockbuster snows on Saturday/Sunday. I am truly peeing my pants. Bring it!!!!
Looks like the GFS shifted southeast a little->last 2 runs
Below is my point forecast for Golden Valley from NWS for today/tonight....snowfall trending up?...it has gone from 1-3 to 2-4 to 3-5 and currently 3-7"...low end warning snow possible...something to keep an eye on...PWL must be dancing still from last night !Snow, mainly before 4am. The snow could be heavy at times. Steady temperature around 27. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
The point forecast for South Mpls has 3-5 from this system, and 5-11 for the next. Bring it!!!!
I just noticed the same thing for the Hopkins area. I like the trend!
NWS now has the metro (plus more) under winter storm watch for the Saturday snow - 6-12” are possible.