Monday, December 3, 2012

Winter Weather on the Horizon (Redux)?

Forecasters in Minneapolis/St. Paul began to talk in cautious tones about a snow-making system for next Sunday/Monday. This no doubt is enough to pump the adrenaline of snow lovers or those who simply want some winter weather excitement. And so, we shall watch the progress.

67 comments:

  1. Novak chose your words wisely!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hahahahaha! That's a good one @Sam G,I like to hear what Novak says about winter storms,but he is notoriously quick out of the gate with his statements,but not like any other local TV met who is trying to grab the attention of viewers.

      Delete
  2. With the sun coming out....watch out....we may touch 60 today!

    ReplyDelete
  3. I may fuel a lot of the skeptics out there, but snow is coming to the Upper Midwest including Minnesota late this weekend. I never pay much attention to where the GFS places storms beyond 5 days, but the model is actually good at picking up changes in the upper levels long range. Since the middle of last week the GFS has been picking up on a vigorous trough digging in the west for this weekend. It has been showing various degrees of strength and timing, and has been bouncing the surface features all over the place, but this always happens. However, for the most part it has continued to bring snow to the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. The ECMWF has been surprisingly more inconsistent in the long range over the past few weeks, but today it has finally aligned better with the GFS solution. I think snow is on the way, but it's way too early to know exactly how strong it will be and predict snow totals. But at this point who wouldn't take even a few inches of snow, which I believe is a safe bet for a good chunk of the state.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Trending south and going south,transalation nothing new here to report,except with every passing day brown Christmas is becoming a reality!

      Delete
    2. That's one model run nearly a week out. Bad forecasters change their forecast with every model run.

      Delete
    3. Again and again... I may have told this a thousand times.
      IT IS NOT GOING TO SNOW THIS WINTER. Period.
      the snow is trending south as it was to be expected.
      No surprise, everything going as planned.

      Delete
  4. Plymouth Weather LoverDecember 3, 2012 at 5:51 PM

    Bring it!!! And, Novak, please chime in. You are being dissed by one individual here. Most of us love your analysis. So....bring that, too!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Yes the 18z GEFS has the low well south moving through southern Missouri northeast into the Ohio Valley.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No. the ensembe GEFS TS has got some idea as well... although I do find it on weatheronline.co.uk, I don't see it anywhere else, and I rarely use it.

      Anyway, here it is:

      http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=gefsts&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=prec&LKEY=MN&HH=3&ARCHIV=0&SHOW=1

      Delete
    2. @ bemaki

      Check out this link for the GFS ensemble forecast, better know as the GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System.) Find were it says GFS Ensemble Individual Member Images, click on that, than look to the very bottom, you will snow fall accumulations, the map in the upper left is the GFS operational, all the rest are ensemble members. Word of caution tho, make sure you refresh your browser each time you look at map after your first visit. To see a larger view of each individual map, right click on it, than click on view image. I use Firefox almost exclusively with weather maps, it works better. Here is a big clue for you, the last snowfall last year most mets were calling for no more than 2 or 3" of wet heavy snow for the metro, while the Euro was showing 4-8" for the north metro. When I saw 5 of the 11 individual ensemble members from the GFS agreeing with the Euro I went with, that's how I got the 4-8" in my forecast and it verified.

      Delete
    3. Opps forgot the link...my bad

      http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html

      Delete
    4. Forgot one other thing the ensemble forecast comes out about 3 hrs after the operational

      Delete
    5. Thanks... I was lloking for a better place to get the ensemble of the GFS.

      Delete
  6. The 18Z run of the GFS appears to be closely following the GEFS idea.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Let me count the ways that I can see us getting some snow this weekend, GFS operational check, the 12/03 12z run of the operational ECMWF, the operational run of the JMA, the operational run of GEM, the operational run of the NOGAPS model, all check marks. Now lets throw in the ECMWF ensemble mean forecast, that is also yes. And if you look at the individual GFS ensemble members of which I can see 11 of them, 9 out of the 11 show accumulating snow fall for MSP. At this point in time I would have to say some accumulations are possible here, say a 3 out 4 chance. As far as the heavy snow I would say it stays to the se of us around ARX, EAU, MKE(Milwaukee) and possibly ORD (Chicago), those of you that understand the importance of ensemble forecasting will appreciate this post, others will have no clue. If we do see snowfall (again I think we will,) it will likely be around for the rest of the winter season.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Watching late Thurs into Friday as guidance picking up short wave / sfc inverted trough that may be a bigger deal than the Sun storm positioned well south of Minnesota. Regardless, snow to come in little waves rather than a big whopper storm. Take what you can get, I guess!

      Delete
    2. @DDwx....I agree whole-heartedly,was going to comment that the sneaky little system for Friday may lay do more snow then the weekend system,somewhere upwards of 3",not much but like you said take what you can get,its a start.

      Delete
    3. The NAM is very bullish with Friday morning's snow. The GFS/ECMWF is much lighter and shows snow more into Friday night early Saturday. The ECMWF rarely swings and misses that bad in this time range, but the NAM does it all of the time. I still think Sunday will be be best opportunity for accumulating snow, with a dusting to an inch or at most two Friday night into Saturday morning.

      Delete
  8. Man reading some of the afternoon blogs and discussions,it seems there are a lot of confusion on what's going to happen in terms of snow chances over the next 5-7 days,but there is definitely two distinctive camps,what I mean is when you read the Dave Dahl blog he makes it sound like it will snow parts of each day from Thursday thru Tuesday of next week,he says rain will go to snow on Thursday with light acccums.( I haven't heard anyone say that),he brushes over Friday and says light snow developing,then says Sunday will be significant and even mentions snow from Mon/Tuesday,all the while if
    you read the NWS discussion page they are very cautious with their wording and snow chances(nothing greater then 40% at this time)but after reading it it seems not much snow will fall over the next 7 days and they say nothing about DD's changeover on Thursday to snow nor about snow on Mon/Tues........I might add that Paul Huttner over at MPR says he's confused and the models are in chaos and is unsure of how the next 5 or so days will turn out......I'm just glad there's something to watch and hopefully look forward to,I will be happy just with "some" snow,I'm not greedy and need evrything at once,but we need to start somewhere

    ReplyDelete
  9. Awfully quiet around here with supposely two snow systems going to affect our area over the next 4 for days(Friday and Sunday)where are all the regulars and their predictions?don't want to jinx it or something,news flash,mother nature really doesn't listen to anything we have to say here anyway,like most females she's going to do what is wants anyway.

    ReplyDelete
  10. I'm personally waiting until the short range models pick up even more on what will happen. Too many large differences still between amounts and strength of storm but it continues to look very interesting. Classic inverted trough look with it. NWS seems to have a good handle on the Fri system, but I think 1-2 will be more of the norm. Mayyybe an isolated 3 somewhere.

    ReplyDelete
  11. All us snow lovers should finally be excited with the prospects for snow this weekend and next week. This is the most promising data I've seen all season. Let's not forget, there has been a ton of snow over the last couple of months however it has fallen just north of the U.S. border in southern Canada. My point is that it has been active in North America, just not here. We need the Jet to sag south and there is no doubt that this will occur over the next 10 days, if not more.

    Looking at this weekend's storm, I love the fact that cold Arctic air will be in place over the Upper Midwest. This negates my usual biggest concern of the rain/snow line since it should set-up south of our region. I really hate getting burned by this damn thing.

    Meanwhile, it appears that a mid-level low and inverted trough will traverse right over MN on Sunday. This is important since precip is quite common in these types of scenarios. Even though the mother low will track well south and east of MN, say from MO to IL to MI, we still should see plenty of lift from the mid and upper level dynamics.

    With all this being said, I would expect that, by Friday, the NWS issue a watch for a good chunk of MN & WI for this weekend's storm.

    As far as this Friday is concerned, I'm not too excited about this event. Dynamics simply not that impressive.

    ReplyDelete
  12. As far as being dissed is concerned, I'm fine with it. Weather forecasters understand that this comes with the profession. This is not, by any means, a perfect science and it never will be until we can find a way to measure every damn inch of our atmosphere.

    I've always had the philosophy that the public wants a weather forecaster to take risks and that they would prefer to hear what the maps look like well ahead of time. I'm not a big fan of a forecaster to is always conservative and then latches onto the final solution right at the end of the game. Taking that approach makes weather forecasting way too easy. The challenge is what I live for and it makes my blood pump.

    However, Sam G. does hit on an important point. I do try to choose my words wisely, especially when attempting to forecast several days in advance. Simply put, there is no way you can be exact and/or detailed with a forecast that is 5 days out. Because of this, some of my comments may be considered vague and, quite frankly, some of them are. If I wanted to be absolutely confident with a detailed forecast 5 days out, then I would move to Arizona. That ain't gonna happen.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Mr. Hammer and NWS starting to speak of inch amounts for our two snow systems coming(Friday and Sat/Sun) they are both in the same ballpark with 3-6" TOTAL of both systems,that is a start because the landscape around town is pretty pathetic without any snowcover to speak of,it surely doesnt feel like the Christmas season unless there is some snow on the ground....and whatever falls will be sticking around for awhile since temperatures look plenty cold next week,Mr Hammer also mentioned the possibility of a collosion of biitter cold air and moisture about mid-week next week with the Euro showing more snow.....LET IT SNOW!

    ReplyDelete
  14. That system next week needs to be watched. GFS does not have it but Euro does. That bitter air up in AK will be released at some points as a ridge shoots up into Alaska. We shall see.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Hammer is right. Euro looks rather tantalizing as we head into Wed-Fri of next week. We are due for a massive outbreak of Arctic air & this may prove to be the onslaught. One would expect a winter storm to develop just ahead of this outbreak.

    ReplyDelete
  16. 12z UKMET really looks interesting between 72 & 96 hours. Shows a classic snowstorm for se 1/2 of MN.

    ReplyDelete
  17. CPC saying heavy snow for 12/9. Wonder what it is thinking...

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7.png

    ReplyDelete
  18. I would be content if that Wed-Fri system would fail to materialize. I need to hitch a flight out of town.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't blame you. Waiting in an airport is terrible.

      Delete
  19. Trying to listen to the KARE11 forecast but the chick with the annoying squeaky voice is working. What is with the voices of women forecasters in this town?

    ReplyDelete
  20. Friday's storm will pretty much be a non-factor for most of Minnesota. Sunday's storm is stronger but overall is split into two different systems. Earlier in the week the storm to the south looked like it would be stronger and become the main driver for snow. But that storm now looks weaker and will be mostly a rain producer. The storm to the north will move across the ND/SD border and into Minnesota. The heaviest snows look to be north of the Twin Cities, with only a slushy inch or two possible in the metro as warmer air works northward ahead of it. You can click on my name to go to my blog where my forecast snowfall maps are located.

    As for next week, I wouldn't bet too much on a significant storm. If you thought the models were inconsistent for this week, they have been much worse for next week.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Friday the southwestern part of the North Star state get to bask in the snow glory with a few inches as round one of the 3 day weekend storms moves into the area. Totally agree on assessment regarding the Sat/Sun, Round #2 event as the nrn portion of the system strengthens. The upper energy was getting more and more pronounced the last few runs and if you watch the water vapor imagery loops of the PAC NW into the Gulf of AK its pretty evident what the model guidance is picking up on (you have to look at real data to see what/why models are depicting things). I do see a decent WAA push from W to E so some measurable amounts into wrn Wisc while deformation zone to the north across eastern NoDak across north central Minnesota will be the favored area for decent accumulations. Will be fun to watch from afar -- wish I were there as my last three visits home to MN have netted successful snow/wx events! :)

      Delete
    2. Randy and DDwx, I was very surprised to see the drastic change the models have been showing over the last 36hrs regarding the southern stream, I really didn't think it would weaken like that. So I went looking and it took a long for me to find what I think may have been the culprits.
      It looks to me that the models have now decided ridging between Hawaii and the west coast will be stronger in the H85 to H7 layers and it actually brings some of it into the far western US thus cutting off the moisture that the H5 trough was trying to pull down. In addition to that it acted to cut off the onshore flow of moisture that was coming in over far southern CA. Now I realize that most of that moisture wont make it over the mountains, but maybe RH values of around 30-40% could have been realized instead of the current dry conditions the models are showing of 15-30%. While the southern surface low seems to try and get going, it quite frankly has very little moisture above to work with, thus the strengthening of the northern stream. What are your guys thoughts?

      The LLJ over the GOM is another thing entirely.

      Delete
  21. Why cant we buy a damn snowstorm here in the metro,it sucked last year and this year is even worse.

    ReplyDelete
  22. And so it goes. Give me a nanosecond to be surprised. Ho hum.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Paul Huttner is still relatively bullish about significant snow (even includes the word "heavy") for Sunday and says 1-2" possible for metro Friday PM/Saturday. And this was updated at 10:15 Thursday night. Seems surprising compared to what others are saying. His assessment is here: http://minnesota.publicradio.org/collections/special/columns/updraft/archive/2012/12/tracking_weekend_snow_chances.shtml

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I only have one problem with that outcome, the 12/6 0z run of the Euro didn't show that much, but on the other hand quite a few of the GFS ensembles did. But that outcome (the GFS) is possible indeed.

      Delete
  24. 12/7 0z Nam snowfall forecast

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM/2012120700/USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_084.gif

    GFS

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2012120700/USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_084.gif

    I did not copy these into a photo sharing site, they may change with subsequent runs of the models.

    GFS a bit further south with the snowfall, this far out I always weight these maps 60/40 in favor of the GFS, when comparing only these two models. I love how the Nam depicts severe weather threats, but for snowfall this far out in its run, I find it be somewhat week.

    waiting to see what the GFS individual ensembles show, plus the Euro.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. well looks like these links may fail. Look for yourself at

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/

      fastest free snowfall maps on the net.

      Delete
  25. Huttner has been chiding and warning us since Labor Day that "the other shoe" is about to drop, even as we see mid-50s in December.

    I would like to see an honest, objective assessment on who wins and loses when it snows. I'm not talking about people who just can't stomach another brown Christmas for whatever reason, for whom this just isn't Minnesota without snow up to the freakin eaves.

    I get that bearded Carhartt-wearing guys with plows on their pickups lose, and Ace Hardware loses when it can't sell a snowblower at 350% markup. But all kinds of people win when it doesn't take them three hours to drive to work, and that kind of time is BIG money.

    What percent of the Minnesota economy depends on snow? How do the financial savings of last year's snow drought compare the gains of other sectors during the previous year's bonanza?

    Climate and economics are intimately intertwined. Paul Douglas has been talking about the drought lately, and how we may have missed the boat on replenishing the moisture before winter. It's really interesting to me. Things could get ugly next year.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I agree with just about everything you said, with one exception, weather and economics are tied together in the short term, climate and economics are tied together in the long term.

      My gut tells me that if some productivity is lost in the short term due to long commutes in the metro, the rest of the economic gains surges ahead with winter time recreation, snow shovels and blower's purchase's no matter the mark up, is ultimately beneficial. Weather is a lot like politics..it's local. No snowfall in the metro, bad winter economy, major snow fall Northern MN benefits greatly as people flock to the north for snowmobile rides

      Delete
  26. OK, the Euro is now on board with heavier snows near or very close to the metro

    ReplyDelete
  27. Guess I'll join in on weather discussion as I looked at a few things this overnight. First off, amazing how much 24-48 hours does to a forecast. Looks like the heaviest now with the bigger system now from Twin Cities northward. For the Twin Cities Friday evening/night storm. It really looks to lose a lot of its moisture across southwest MN before it heads into the se MN/Twin Cities. However it looks like the models are coming into a fairly good agreement for around an inch at MSP.

    As for no snow for the Sat night/Sun storm, I'd say throw that out the window now. Euro/GFS/NAM all on board now with metro accumulations. Even the paltry NAM on the 00Z run has come around to adding around 3-4 inches in the central metro. I don't have the Euro output in terms of qpf amounts, but just eyeballing it shows about a 6-9 hour window of 0.05-0.10" Sun AM through midday Sun. Snow output from the Euro would also be around that 3-5" range by my best guesstimate. GFS continues to be bullish with around 6-8" from this system in the metro.

    I usually dislike giving amounts 48+ hours out, but my confidence is growing to start throwing numbers out there with all that was explained above. As for central metro I really think that 3-5" amounts look pretty good right now, while far south metro may only squeak out 1-3" amounts from this Sat night/Sun storm. Meanwhile north metro might be closer to the 5-6" range while around the Cambridge/Duluth region could be in the 6-10" range. Those are my thoughts so far on this upcoming storm system.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good stuff, Tony. Thanks for contributing your thoughts!

      Delete
  28. NWS thinking now is 4-5" for the TC metro with Winter Storm Watches as close to the metro as Anoka county,even saying blizzard conditions out to the west.This bad boy is getting stronger and is trending south over time,wouldnt be surprised that the Twin Cities gets into the core of the heavier snows(minus the lake effect areas)

    ReplyDelete
  29. Plymouth Weather LoverDecember 7, 2012 at 6:32 AM

    I am so excited I just have one thing to say.........BRING IT!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  30. Maybe there is a Santa after all?!!!

    ReplyDelete
  31. GFS puts 8+ inch band thru the metro,come on GFS!

    ReplyDelete
  32. I love reading you guys. I have slowly been learning a little over the past three years. Can anyone give some timeline estimates for when things might begin to look messy today? Bigger snowfall tonight or Sunday? Thanks again and bring on the snow... cold with no snow is just boring and no fun for the kiddos!

    ReplyDelete
  33. Is it just me or does todays little snow event look a little further north on radar coming out of SD and into western MN right now....NWS and most outlets called for heaviest snows for today to be around the I-90 corridor to me it looks further north maybe between I-90 and the metro loop to include the south metro......or I could be wrong and the doughnut around the metro should occur as the day unfolds,we'll see I'm just glad were tracking snow on the rather!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Last word should read.....radar

      Delete
  34. Looks like a Winter Storm Watch was just issued for the full metro. Calling for 5-7 inches with Sat/Sun system.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Duluth has now issued a WSW for most of its counties, perhaps just a couple of minutes ago. I am inclined to think that the NWS here in the Twin cities will follow suit. The only places that there is only a winter weather advisory in their area is northern Itasca, Northern st. louis and kooching county. These warnings are sligtly south of where the watches were issued. If you cath it in time, you will see the inversion between duluth and grand forks, who has not posted the warnings yet.

    Because Duluth pushed their warnings slightly south, I am thinking that the national weather service in the twin cities will as well.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Okay... it is official. The natinal weather service has now issued a winter storm warning for most of the north metro including Henipen, Anoka, Ramsey, and Washington counties. All points north are also under it. They have also kept goodhue, dakota, scott, and rice counties under a winter storm watch. We shall see what happens. I suppose that there is a chance of a blizzard warnings being issued as well...

    ReplyDelete
  37. Here is the official pruduct:

    URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
    349 PM CST FRI DEC 7 2012

    ...SOME SNOW TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING...THEN A LARGER WINTER
    STORM EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING...

    .THE FIRST OF TWO SYSTEMS IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
    MOST OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
    WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF GENERALLY AN INCH OR TWO.

    IT APPEARS THE SECOND SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND WILL DEVELOP INTO A
    WINTER STORM. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF A LINE
    FROM MADISON TO THE TWIN CITIES AND LADYSMITH SATURDAY NIGHT
    THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA BY
    EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...AND THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS EASTERN
    MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
    THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
    WINTER STORM WARNING AREA WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH THE
    HIGHEST TOTALS NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 94. A WINTER STORM WATCH
    REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
    WISCONSIN NOT COVERED BY THE WARNING NORTH OF A LINE FROM MANKATO
    TO EAU CLAIRE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA
    COULD REACH 6 INCHES.

    STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SYSTEM TO 15 TO 30
    MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY
    AFTERNOON. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY WEST OF
    A LINE FROM ALEXANDRA TO WILLMAR AND MANKATO. AREAS OF BLOWING
    SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST.

    MNZ060>063-068-080600-
    /O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0003.121209T0000Z-121210T0000Z/
    /O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0002.121209T0600Z-121210T0600Z/
    HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-CARVER-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MINNEAPOLIS...BLAINE...ST. PAUL...
    STILLWATER...CHASKA
    349 PM CST FRI DEC 7 2012

    ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO
    MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT...

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
    A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS
    IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
    NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

    * TIMING...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA EARLY
    SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

    * MAIN IMPACT...AROUND 6 INCHES.

    * OTHER IMPACTS...AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL DEVELOP
    SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND
    GUSTS APPROACH 35 MPH. THE BLOWING SNOW WILL SUBSIDE LATE SUNDAY
    EVENING AS WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS
    SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.
    SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL
    DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP
    AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF
    AN EMERGENCY.

    ReplyDelete
  38. Multimedia web brefing now issued by NWS twin cities:

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/?n=webbriefing

    ReplyDelete
  39. First of all lets start with some definitions of a Winter Weather Advisory as opposed to Winter Storm Warnings. I booked marked this three years ago and I don't think it has changed.

    Winter Weather Advisories:

    Any one of a combination of the following winter weather elements is expected: 3 to 6 inches of light snow, light sleet accumulation, light ice and snow or sleet accumulation, or significant visibilty reductions due to light snow and/or blowing snow.

    Winter Storm Warnings:

    Snow amounts of 6 inches or more in 12 hours, or 8 inches or more in 24 hours, are expected. These may or may not be accompanied by wind or other phenomena. A warning may also be issued if conditions will be approaching blizzard criteria, even if snowfall amounts are not expected to reach the criteria above.

    So here is my thoughts based on the 12/07 12z run of the Euro and the 12/07 18z runs of the GFS and Nam. I am discounting the 18z nam, it appears to be a outlier with the 8-10" snows in western WI, just east of the metro.

    Therefore I'm calling for a blend of the GFS and the Euro for snowfall's in the metro. It looks like 3-4" at MSP with higher amounts to the north. Say around 5-6" for the north Metro. With higher amounts from ST Cloud to Duluth. Keep in mind the trend from the models seems to be moving the heavy snows to the north of the metro, and if that trend continues with tonight's model suite we would see less snow in the Metro, thus affecting my forecast, which follows.

    My guess is that MPX will continue the Winter Storm Warning for three reasons. 1) it's the first snowfall of the year and 2) it's a big Xmas shopping weekend, 3) the mets on duty will use their discretionary powers because of points 1 and 2.

    At this time I will call for 2-5" over the metro, less south more north, technically this would call for a Winter Advisory event, but warnings should stay in place as explained above. IF the 12/08 0z model suite continues to move this system north and it verifies of course we will see lower snowfall totals.

    ReplyDelete
  40. I've heard that the snows were going to be way south, then way north, then right on us...now north again? So depending on whose forecast you buy, we're getting anywhere from 2" of slush to 6-8 inches of snow. I just hope we all get something and that something more comes along before Christmas.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AB, I think we will all get some snowfall and the pattern looks like once we get it will be here to stay. I am 90% certain that we will see a white Xmas

      Delete
  41. Bill, where are the forecast summaries to be used on Monday to grade the forecasters?
    It seems the almost never ending lack of snow has changed the original purpose of this blog.
    You used to post it for every potential snow event, and there's nothing... and we are 24 hours away...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm going to put something together after capturing tonight's forecasts. But yes, it takes too much work to do this right and I can't keep up. The bottom line is that it's sort of a pointless pursuit, you know?

      Delete
  42. I started viewing the blog last year looking into insight on thoughts and views of upcoming snow events. I do snow removal. My company does several milllion in annual sales based on snow in the TC. This site is truly an asset to myself and other companies trying to get an edge on each snow event. We appreciate all and any input, knowing it's for the greater good. Appreciate all the knowledge!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nice to hear those comments, Credit River.

      Delete
  43. Novak isn't saying much,could mean the storm is fizzling.

    ReplyDelete