As of Wednesday evening, forecasters were not ready to commit to a clearcut forecast. Here are a few forecast thoughts we saw across social media Wednesday afternoon and evening.
KARE11, during the evening news, mentioned that an accumulating snowfall of perhaps 2-4" is expected if the storm path continues in its current manner.
|From MPR weather blog|
|National Weather Service|
How about @Novakweather? After all he was the first to get last weekend's storm correct. I did see that he posted a graphic earlier today too. Might be worth adding to this page.
Good point. An oversight on my part.Delete
I'm not liking this system at all when it comes to Nam depiction, although it very well might be right.ReplyDelete
Looking at the 1000-500mb maps with precipitation that we all like to look at, it looks like the the 540 thickness line (normally the approx snow/rain line) is well north of the metro.
After further review based on the latest bufkit soundings, there is disturbing trend. The column starts to saturate around the 4-5k feet layer, and the temp profiles at that layer are well above freezing, however the surface temps are below freezing, this occurs around 10pm to 11pm Saturday night. These profiles are somewhat consistent for the next 3-4 hours, but this is CRITICAL, a slightly dry layer develops below that and precip may not get to the ground, however if it does, it will be in the form of freezing rain. Than the Nam shows some cold rain before changing over to snow, say around 3.5" What a sloppy system.
The second thing that is interesting is the strength of the Hudson Bay Blocking Ridge, I'm not ruling out light snow into Sunday.
The bottom line is that MNDOT may have another challenge on it's hands as people try to get out on Saturday for their Xmas shopping.
NWS going full bore on mix idea with snow on backside,with up to 4" in some spots,they favor NW of metro for the highest amount at this time,but still plenty of time for things to change(considering how late in the game things changed last weekend).But Dave Dahl mentioning a foot somewhere in southern MN seems very far fetched,even for his standards,but crazier things have happened...time will tell......I'm sure WWA will be a sure bet for the entire CWA.ReplyDelete
Wow, and this is our classic big snow storm path (shakes head in disgust). Is this what our "winters" have become?ReplyDelete
Obviously if not even a perfectly tracked Colorado Low, in Mid December is able to give us 100% snow there is something really really wrong with Minnesota winters.ReplyDelete
Climate change deniers should pay attention and everybody should do something about this because in 50 years there won't be any snow at all in winter.
The forecast for Saturday sounds more like a Halloween forecast than a "10 days before Christmas" forecast. This Low should be a snow-lover and White Christmas lover's slam dunk.ReplyDelete
There's still a lot of time between now and Saturday though. Look how much changed in the last 48 hours before last weekend's storm. Will be fun to keep checking in to get everyone's predictions.
Most importantly, stay safe out there Saturday. Still a lot of idiots out there trying to figure out how to drive.
Dave Dahl toned it down a little bit on his KS95 radio spot this morning,calling for "several inches",no mention of the foot he said yesterday,but hey anything can happen,since the models and forecasters do not have a handle on this storm yet.ReplyDelete
I don't think any level of "bring it" will work for this one. It is just too warm--on the surface and at the higher levels. I am bummed and hope that things change, but even with a shift to the south, it would still be too warm, I believe. I just hope the slop doesn't take all the snow away. A white Christmas is still my hope. Bring the next storm!!ReplyDelete
Given the warmth this system has shown over the last several days, I'm a little surprised DD would include mention of that much snow. I guess he said it was more of a possiblity rather than a guarentee. With warm systems, it would take a ton of liquid to get to that much snow given the low ratios. This will be a difficult forecast with the bust potential certainly there. First off, the need for winter weather advisories will be there given the mixed bag of precipitation. Even the short range models are pretty scattered on when any transition will take place. General model consensus is that MSP should see between 1 to 3 inches of snow, but I would even drop that to 1-2 given the warm surface temps and potential melting. The amount of icing we see will largely depend on surface temps are, and of course your local DOT. If we see heavier rates on radar, it's possible the switch over could happen more quickly. I expect several transitions to take place between rain and snow. Temps aloft and at the surface are so close to that critical point, that it is just not possible to give exact change over times. So, in summary I think 1-3 inches of slushy snow for the metro. It's really too bad, because with between .5 and .6 inches of QPF from this system, it could have been another 6+ storm if we had the colder air available. If I think something different, I will post an update tomorrow.ReplyDelete
1) Yes, I thought Dave Dahl was a little "over" in his assessment of what was possible. We'll see.
2) The NWS seems hellbent on coming up with very specific changeover times... Personally, I think it's a little too much "blow by blow," particularly with such uncertainty. Here's what they said:
Friday night: Freezing rain and sleet likely before 4am, then rain and sleet likely between 4am and 5am, then rain and snow likely after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 32. East southeast wind 11 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday Rain and snow before 11am, then rain, snow, and sleet between 11am and noon, then rain likely after noon. High near 37. East southeast wind 8 to 13 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
I believe DD is simply going with conventional wisdom which is:ReplyDelete
- If it is December and we have a mid-level AND surface low passing just so. of MN, then we must get significant snow. He must be banking on colder model solutions with later runs.
Quite frankly, DD may be onto something, but given what the data shows right now, I believe it is crazy to predict "plowable" snows. I'm anxious to see the next few runs.
Truthfully, this storm scares the hell out of me. That is why I feel it is appropriate to hold off on headlines/snow predictions until tomorrow. Dynamic cooling/rain snow lines suck. This is like an April storm in December.ReplyDelete
BTW, nice synopsis Duane. I couldn't agree more.
I agree with pretty much everything that is being said on here. This storm is a mess, and should be mostly rain for the Twin Cities. Maybe an inch of sloppy wet snow Saturday evening, with slightly higher amounts to the north and west of the metro. I really don't think freezing rain will be an issue. Some very light freezing drizzle/fog will be possible Friday night as warm, moist air overrides below freezing temperatures at the surface. But once the main band of precipitation arrives, surface temperatures rise above freezing allowing for all rain. Snow will fall once the temperatures start dropping back close to freezing.ReplyDelete
As for the global warming comment above, the US has actually been one of the very few hot spots globally this year. Most of the other continents have been below normal. Even Canada has been very cold in December. We just haven't been able to get this cold air to move south...yet.
Well, the data doesn't really bear that out:Delete
"The average combined global land and ocean surface temperature for January–October 2012 was the eighth warmest such period on record, at 0.58°C (1.04°F) above the 20th century average."
That map seems to have quite a bit of missing data. This was the map I was referring to:Delete
Having grown up in Rain/Snow central (DC area), I've seen how many times the forecast has gone awry. It just doesn't seem to take much to keep things stubbornly as rain or stubbornly as snow. Plus just one hour of heavy snow would mean two more inches than if that hour were merely rain. Hmm... maybe that seems obvious.ReplyDelete
Well Dave Dahl is bucking all trends and going out on a big limb,either he will be a big winner or big loser,his afternoon blog says 4-8 inches of snow will fall.....so why is everyone saying mostly rain and mix,what is he seeing?what model even suggests that 4-8 could fall?ReplyDelete
He must be going with climatology. This type of track in December usually means big snow.ReplyDelete
I still think we may all still may be surprised by this one. The NAM has an early switchover. 6 inches? Bring it.ReplyDelete
Given the dynamic contributions for this system and the low track, plus cooler air on the back side, I don't think DD's "possibly a foot" is far fetched. Best chance for some mesoscale banded precipitation would be to the left of the low track. If I had to give odds, given the guidance trend over the past few days, I'd go 1:12 on someone receiving a foot of snow. Unlikely, but certainly not unheard of with this type of system.ReplyDelete
Ok we now have two systems on the board, this weekend and on the 20th. The GFS and Euro have both been showing a surface low forming over lee side of the Rockies but missing the Lower Level Jet (LLJ) coming out of the Gulf, keeping the system dry as the LLJ was just barely ahead of it. Now the GEM and the Euro have made the connection I thought they would, the GFS not so much, and unlike this weekend system, there is no question about the temp profiles.ReplyDelete
Darn Randy, you beat me to the punch with that one. I was going to let this weekend sort itself out first before making mention of it just to make sure it stayed as a consistent thing on the models. GEM and Euro both do look pretty with that second system, and as mentioned, arctic air should be available for that one. Too soon to get excited about, but nice that all the models are showing some form of that storm happening. For now, focus is on Saturday. Really not much change in thinking for Saturday. The trough and associated low are just making their way onshore into southern Cali and should start to provide a good sampling from weather balloons with the 12z run in the morning, and definitely the 00z run Friday evening. Honestly I'm not expecting any drastic changes but really who knows. I'm just hoping that system for mid next week continues to show strong on the foreign models, and gets its act together on the GFS. We are losing snow quite rapidly, and it would be nice to put a fresh blanket down before Christmas.ReplyDelete
Dave Dahl (at least KSTP) is doing an about-face this morning. They are now saying that we could possibly pick up a slushy inch or two of snow tomorrow night after a nice rainy mid-December day!! Whoo hoo! (sarcasm added of course)ReplyDelete
Boy has everyone given up on this one already? Or just no real change to speak of today?ReplyDelete
Honestly I couldn't care less about this storm now. Hard to care about something so small after watching the news all day.ReplyDelete
Pretty much giving up on the one for Saturday. It will be interesting I guess to watch for any wrap around on Sunday that could accumulate in some areas. Focus turns to mid next week, with the GFS coming more in line with the Euro and GEM camps (12z Euro and 00z GFS are actually really similar in timing and location). We'll watch it over the next several days to see what happens with it, but at this point in time it is our next shot at seeing some accumulating snows.ReplyDelete
@Duane,system for mid-week looks to pass to far south to affect MPX at the moment,but looks promsing for you and the Lacrosse area,but any shift north would MPx in play and any shift south will take in out of play,so we shall see.Delete
Today really is disheartening,with a promising track for snow and we get rain,just not right!
Watching ensemble members, 7 out of 12 have a hit of some sort for us. Amazing how many scnarios that can play out for any one storm.ReplyDelete
The GFS Ensemble members have come furter into agreement for the wednesday-thursday potential system. 9 out of the 12 members now predict a storm of some sort for our area.ReplyDelete
The ECMWF still shows the bulk of precip to south.
The GFS operational model shows a more progressive and slightly further north system, althogh it is weaker. Like ECMWF, bulk of precip south.
The JMA now has a storm over our area, like GFS ensemble.
The GEM sides with the ECMWF, GFS operational.
UKMET with ECMWF, GEM, GFS operational
CMC operational pushes storm way south, through mississippi. Inclined to think this will not be the case.
NOGAPS with JMA and the GFS Ensembles.
CMC ensemble mean is similar GFS operational/ECMWF/GFS/GEM/UKMET
MRF following NOGAPS/JMA/GFS Ensembles.
FIM (flow-following finite-volume icosahedral model), an experimental model from NOAA, which was first used in 2008 (http://fim.noaa.gov/), which is consistanlty undergoing updates and modifications, is a model which has gained my curiosity. Since they continue to modify and update it, it is probalbly unreliable yet so far. It does nail systems once in a while, but for the most part it is a work in progress. This model may one day become an active model, however, its future is up in the air.
Simply put, right now the FIM follows the GFS ensemble/JMA/NOGAPS/MRF idea.
This has little relation, but here is a link to a comprehensive list of weather models, which I have found recently:
Good stuff, Bemaki!Delete
GFS has now pushed wednesday system south.ReplyDelete
@bemaki it would have been much easier just to say storm going south of MSP with your earlier long winded/worded post to save you and others the disappointment of no snow.Delete
There is now way to verify that statement. The models are fifty-fifty on this system. Sure, the two, "Big dogs" (ECMWF, GFS), are taking the system south, but that means NOTHING. Do not forget, the most unreliable model, as we all know, is the CMC. The CMC is right on par with these guys. There are a lot of lesser models, including several ensembles of the GFS, that bring a powerful snowstorm over our area. By no means is snow ruled out for our area wednesday.Delete
Also, no snow is not dissapointing, NO WEATHER is dissapointing. Sure, snow is great, but it is WEATHER that captivates all of us.Delete
Also, the UKMET has brought the poetential storm further north, increasing the liklihood that we will recieve snow.Delete
It is unfortunate that models are starting to trend the wrong way in regards to that storm for Thursday, however nothing is a lock yet. It would be more ideal to see a general movement in this direction but it's not the case with this one. This isn't to say that this won't at some point happen. Those who think that every storm will just pass to our south must not have been here last weekend when we saw our largest snowstorm since 2010. You cannot seriously look at last year and think it is just going to be the trend from here on out. It doesn't work that way. If it did, then after the winter we had in 2010 we would just assume that 2011 would be even worse. You cannot judge a season based on that same season a year ago...especially in this climate. Since I can remember there have been storms that have been close calls and have just brushed by to our south. There have also been storms that have brought down the roof of certain sports complex's. This has been the case for years, and will be the case for many many many more. This is normal, and has been for a long time. Just look at the weather history stories on the NWS page. They have huge ice storms dating back to 1912, and big warm ups and cool downs in the 1930's. Don't think that because one storm just misses us that it is going to be that way for the rest of the winter. There are still a lot of questions regarding Thursday's system, and really things can change quickly. It would seem as though with bit of cold air coming in that we would get a storm, but for now we need the phasing of the troughs to happen a bit sooner, and a bit stronger high pressure out east would help to steer that storm on a better track. Needless to say it will be watched closely, but for now it is going to be a better shot for areas of central and eastern WI, and parts of IA and IL. Stay tuned because things can change quickly even when people doubt they will.ReplyDelete
I knew something was going to change,towards no snow when both wunderground and accuweather(I know unreliable resources)were forecasting inches of snow for Wed. Night/Thursday already as of yesterday,accuweather had 5.1 inches and wunderground had 6 inches,but as of this morning not 1 inch by either of them,ho-hum no surprise.Delete
Do not forget, the UKMET still is pushing this thing north while the rest push it south. The NOGAPS has come back north, and the JMA has not budged. The direction of the ECMWF storm is becoming increasingly vertical, and the GFS operational is the only one that is trending full blown to the south. The NAM has now come close enoguh into range to indicated either a sidswipe or a direct hit. The GEM goes WAY south, The CMC has the storm even further south then the GFS, and its ensemble mean seems to match it, however, we all know the reliabillity of the canadian models. MRF is north of GFS, putting precip edge right over us. FIM, like the JMA, has not even budged.Delete
The wildcard in this is the GFS ensemble members. Nine out of the twelve STILL have a significant storm over our area.
The only reliable models that are trending south are the GFS and ECMWF, and the ECMWF is really just getting more vertically orientated. Sure, all the canadians are trending south, but I am inclined to think that this may be coincidence, considering their reliablillity.
Therefore, I beleive that this system is well within the range of probabillity. I will continue to hold a 50/50 on occuring/not occuring.
@bemaki,I applaud your passion for "weather" to occur,but the writing is on the wall for Wed/Thur. system,it will be too far south and east to cause any snowfall for MSP on the major models,you can cite all the above models and what their saying but even you called the Euro and GFS reliable models above and their both have been trending south,yes we can hope for a change,because I would be the first to wish it would snow a foot with every snow system,but I think its time to look beyond this week at a possible system around xmas day.Delete
@Bill,I'm sure there will be no grades or even assessments put out for this "non-snow event",but Dave Dahl has to be the big loser on this saying "its not out of the question someone in southern MN sees a foot of snow" on Wednesday evening and then on Thursday evening follows it up 4-8 inches,but to be totally honest with you as late as Friday morning all forecasters were calling for at least some kind of wintery mix with rain/freezing rain/sleet/snow with a transition to snow by late afternoon/evening,we'll don't know about you but all I saw was rain with no transition!,even Paul Huttner's update last evening called for 1-2 inches of slushy snow for the metro,no slush anywhere this morning to speak of.ReplyDelete
We had a brief transition to light snow here in Rosemount last night around 10:30 p.m. By 11 p.m. all was clam. Big Daddy, I agree that Dave Dahl was way off the mark on this storm. He had company in being wrong, but he wasn't even remotely close with his forecast. The snow pack of a foot down here has been reduced to about two inches in spots and bare ground in other areas. My wife and I were shopping in Burnsville yesterday and we saw a fair amount of bare spots; especially on south facing hills which were completely bare, but in other areas as well. I think we will have a white Christmas only due to the strictest definition of the phrase. Fortunately we received such a large amount of snow last weekend that we should hopefully be able to limp into Christmas with a little bit still on the ground. I agree with Duane's comments above. I was thinking the same thing yesterday. I even went back and looked up historical weather data for MSP dating back to the severe winters of the '70s and mid 90's. There have always been warm periods and cold periods during the winter along with ice storms, snow storms and yes, plain ole winter time rain. As a winter lover and snow lover it is my hope that we finally get cold and stay cold around here while receiving our fair share of snow. I hope the storm track for this week shifts north too. I guess we will find out come about Wednesday. Everybody, keep the faith and don't stop the snow dance! We need to please the snow gods!!ReplyDelete
Ensemble correction: 6 out of 12ReplyDelete
This is a follow up to my earlier comment. I surely hope that last winter and this winter to date are not harbingers of the "winters" we can come to expect in the future. Having said that I am sure there were many non-winter lovers making the same comment after the 2000-2001, 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 winters here. A year or two a pattern does not make. A word of caution, if you want to get depressed be sure to read Paul Douglas' daily column. To hear him tell it winter will essentially ultimately be reduced to just a short few weeks a year. His column this morning was again talking about this year being yet another abbreviated Minnesota winter. While he is correct, he has stories on his blog almost daily about how warm the weather is becoming. I don't pretend to know what the future holds for us. All I know is that I grew up back in the mid-Atlantic where 9 out of 10 winter storms gave us nothing but cold rain. My siblings and I were always praying for snow but were typically disappointed instead. I moved to Minnesota because I wanted to experience truly real winters, not extended autumns. I will not ignore reality. If our winters are to become a thing of the past, then unfortunately I can't prevent that. However, I won't give up on cheering for winter either. I think the future will be very interesting. Let is snow! Let it snow!ReplyDelete
@Snow Miser: Where in the mid-Atlantic did you grow up? I grew up in the DC suburbs in Virginia... and totally agree with the 9 of 10 winter storms being cold rain.Delete
@Big Daddy... I would agree with your grade assessment. I'm sure Dave Dahl wishes he could have this forecast over again, but even those in the general consensus were wrong. This system was 99% rain and the right forecast would have been one where no accumulations whatsoever were predicted.ReplyDelete
Bill, I grew up in central Delaware. I lived in Greenbelt, MD while I attended the U. of M, College Park.ReplyDelete
@Snow Miser Ah, used to pass signs to Greenbelt on the way to Orioles games on the B-W Parkway.... I've still never seen it snow as hard here as it can in the mid-Atlantic -- that is, when it does snow there.Delete
anyone seen the 12/17 00z nam?ReplyDelete
if it only came true...
yes I saw it, not sure if it is depicting the northern system along the border correctly, especially in the 850-700mb heights, it keeps most of that energy north of the border, but the other models are stronger allowing a strong dry layer to work into central MN as the storm system ejects out, forcing the system south. We will wait and see.Delete
Bill, I spent many days/nights at old Memorial Stadium watching the O's play. I'm a huge baseball fan and a former minor league player for my beloved Phillies. You're right about the snow in the mid-Atlantic. When that 1 time out of 10 occurs and they do get a snowstorm it seems that the Atlantic opens up and snow falls as though it's being dumped from buckets. Now that's fun! I readily recall the Presidents' Day Blizzards of '78 and '79 as well as the Valentine's Day Blizzard of '83. I moved out here in 1992. I know that they have had a handful of monster snowstorms since then. It's just too bad those storms don't happen very often.ReplyDelete
@Snow Miser... Very cool! Nice that you could live the dream. Very jealous! Made the trek from DC to Memorial Stadium many a time as well. A nice old stadium. I recall the President's Day Blizzard of 79 -- I think that was when the Air Florida jet landed on the 14th St. Bridge in Washington. I moved here in Feb. 84. Too bad you missed the Halloween Blizzard of '91 here.... it was pretty amazing.Delete
Dave Dahl still has significant snow chances in his forecast as of late Sunday night news. Is he the only one? I like him as he lets me say bring it. Is there a chance?? C'mon, help me. Give me hope.ReplyDelete
Sorry PWL that's the same Dave Dahl that said its not out of the question that somewhere in southern Minnesota will receive a foot from our 99% rain storm yesterday.he's a snow lover like you.Delete
The model runs over the next several days will be interesting. Tonight's (Sunday) runs were a step in the right direction. The NAM is furthest west and puts down a lot of snow in south central MN into western WI, while the European is furthest east and does nothing more than brush by while it unloads on Wisconsin, Illinois, and parts of IA. GFS and GEM are pretty middle of the road but are edged to the Euro. What I found interesting tonight is that the GFS, GEM, and Euro all made shifts towards the west when compared to their earlier runs. I just looked at the 06z NAM and it is a bit further east than before, but still is hitting a lot of the same areas as it was before. The SREF is kind of in between all of the other models as well but putting down a lot of snow in areas near what the NAM shows. NOGAPS is also further west which is putting the Euro kind of in a camp of its own. Again, it did make a bump west in the 00z run. It wasn't a huge jump, but a step in the right direction. It will be interesting to see how things play out. Typically the Chicago or Milwaukee track is just too far south and east to really affect the area, but this is a big low and looks to be a strong one. I'm remembering back to I believe 2009 when there were widespread 1+ foot totals for areas of MN and a lot of WI. We just need that shift towards the west to continue. Two things I think we really need to watch. One is the high pressure coming in out of Canada. If it delays, or is weaker it won't push the low so far to the east and the track will improve. The other thing I believe is the area of high pressure out east. If that strengthens the low will be forced to turn northeast more quickly and the track will be better. However if it weakens, then that turning factor won't be there and the storm will simply move off to our south and east. The way models are showing now, someone in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes will see a pretty good blizzard potential from this, and snow totals will be quite impressive as well. Could this storm just end up going "poof" and not forming? Sure it could. It's nature, and it does what it wants to. However, every model is showing a major storm close to home. It's the waiting game now, and given the trough is still up near Alaska I expect even more tweaks to happen.ReplyDelete
Great read Duane,thanks!Delete
looks like snows are inching closer to MSP,going to be a close call,even reading NWS discussion their leaving the door open for the possibility of heavy snow in our area as opposed to their last few discussions on it.
A side note,a sneaky little inch or two tommorrow looking likely.
The 12Z run of the NAM is in and it has moved south a little. The main target with this run would be most of Iowa, SE MN, and Wisconsin.ReplyDelete
My gut feel on this Wed. Night/Thursday system is it will get close enough to MSP for forecasters to throw out some inch amounts,but I think this will be one of those dry line forecasts where it looks good on radar and never makes it as far as MSP with a definite line of snow vs. No snow scenerio,just a feeling I got because I have sen a lot of those types play out over the years...I hope I'm wrong and we get nailed,just doesn't have the look of a snowstorm for MSP currently.ReplyDelete
Reading Dave Dahl's blog last night you would think it is a lock for us to get a snowstorm Wed/Thur,he says "another snowstorm is aiming at Minnesota for Wed. Evening and night and enough snow will fall to shovel and plow by Thursday morning and in the same breath he says the storm is still a few days away and it could miss us entirely.ReplyDelete
What kind of forecast is that?to me its a attention grabber/kick my ass forecast!
Whenever models are in disagreement, I always tend to go back to the basics, kind of a weather 101. In other words, look at the upper level dynamics rather than the surface and low level features right now. The Jet structure supports a Winter Storm scenario for a decent chunk of southern MN & much of WI, especially the se 1/3 of MN.ReplyDelete
As later model runs come in, then it will be time to focus more on surface features.
The 12 Z NAM run gives Rochester 14 inches while the GFS gives 3. Might be a close call for many south east of the Cities.ReplyDelete
Actually, 12z GFS also drops around 12" of snow on RST & nearly 2" in MSP.ReplyDelete
GFS has slowly & steadily been moving the axis of heavy snow NW with each successive model run.
NWS has issued a WS watch for extreme SE MN/southern WI. Their forecast for MSP is for a slight chance of light snow on Wednesday. It appears they are becoming confident that any potential storm will stay quite a ways south of MSP...at least at this point.ReplyDelete
Difficult to ignore the medium range models (ECMWF, GEM, etc.) and there continued further south track. At this moment, I wouldn't commit to anything regarding this storm.ReplyDelete
Storm comes ashore early TUE and gets into a much richer data network during the day. It will be interesting to see if the NAM changes it's tune during 12z TUE run. I bet it will shift the storm a bit further south.ReplyDelete
This storm is an non-issue north of RST,maybe next time for MSP!ReplyDelete
Starting to become more comfortable with a near OKC to near STL to near ORD surface low track. In theory, this would place the heavy snow axis from OMA to GRB (incl. DSM & LSE). Much of IA & WI should see heavy snow from this system along with extreme southeastern MN & northwestern IL.ReplyDelete
Only time will tell.
BTW, X-Mas storm looks much more interesting for all of MN. I love inverted troughs in the middle of Winter. This scenario is almost as sure of a bet for snow as you can get. Even though the surface low will track well south of the Midwest, the inverted trough would pull moisture well north into the cold Arctic air over the Upper Midwest.ReplyDelete
NOOOOOOOOO......Say it isn't so!! I was holding out hope for some north movement!ReplyDelete
But I like the Christmas snow idea!! Bring that!ReplyDelete
Is there still a chance that the track may shift? it hasn't even came ashore yet. how far north will the snow make it?ReplyDelete
Well, if the latest SREF, NAM & GFS (Americans) are any indication, then yes, MSP will need to get a shovel.ReplyDelete
If the Europeans/Canadians are correct, then MSP is in the clear.
I will say what I stated before, the upper level jet structure looks favorable for a snow event over a good chunk of so. MN especially areas from MSP south and east.
Latest 18z run of NAM still painting around a foot from the storm. At least it's consistent :-DReplyDelete
NOTE: My post is referring to Rochester (which 99% of you couldn't care less about :-) sorryReplyDelete
It's hard to bet against the ECMWF which is the most accurate model and has not flinched from its southern track since Saturday. This would mean a complete miss for the metro. But just for fun WSI's RPM model - similar to the NAM - refuses to shift south. It shows 8-12" for the metro with 16-20" near Cannon Falls. Not likely, but stranger things have happened.ReplyDelete
@DysonGuy,I care about RST,just would like for you to share the wealth with your neighbors slightly to the north(MSP).ReplyDelete
I watched some forecasters tonight for the 6pm news,this is what I got:
WCCO(Chris S)-he says the wed/thur storm will affect only the southeast corner of the state,but shows a graphic on the screen that shows the heavier bands of snow right over the metro and even Chris S. says this perticular model wants to bring the heaviest snows closer to the metro..........nothing new here WCCO contiues to say one thing but show a different thing.
KSTP(Dave Dahl)-pretty much grazes over snow chances for the metro,just says light snow for MSP,but heavier snow south and east!
@Bill it may or may not snow,but a new post maybe in the offering!
P.S. Wunderground(aka Accuweather Jr.) has a storm for Xmas night thru 27th with 8 inches of snow,but get this thru that same time chances of snow are only 20% to 30%.really!?
WCCO and their use of models that they talk down at the same time they're presenting them. Foolish!!ReplyDelete
I think we can all (in the MSP metro area) give up on this one as well. 00z suite is basically dry.ReplyDelete
It makes sense though: after all we had our perfect track on Saturday but we lost a chance because of those ridiculous mid-thirties. Can't expect the storm track to be always favorable.
And those who claim 100% certainty about a White Xmas?....
ummm they might have talked too early... official snow depth at MSP is 1 inch... sunny and 32 on Wednesday....uhm.... not so sure anymore. If we do not get any accumulating snow (very likely) we may actually officially get another brown Xmas.
@Anonymous I guess it all depends where you live,but I still have anywhere from 3-4" here in Golden Valley,with no bare spots and temps climbing no higher then 30 straight thru to Christmas,thats a white Christmas in my book,if you live at the airport then maybe it wont classify as a white Christmas,but who cares nobody lives at the airport!Delete
the airport is the official measurement, and that is what goes in the books. You can have 700 inches where you live but if the official gauge at the airport says 0 inches, it will officially go down as another brown xmas.Delete
I was at the airport this weekend and yes, the snow is about gone, but thats the problem with relying on the airport for weather stats, where hot, smelly vehicles are running over the terrain 24/7.ReplyDelete
Another perfect snowstorm MISSES the metro,this past weekend too warm for snow,Thursday too cold for snow and now I'm hearing hints of the xmas storm just missing us also,and the beat goes on.ReplyDelete
Good thing we got that snow two weeks ago,if not we would still be sitting around an inch of snow for the season.Just so frustating being a snowlover in Minnesota and not really being able to enjoy winter and all its glory unless I want to drive 150 miles or so north or south.Hopefully January will treat us to a parade of clippers,but then again it will proably be too cold!
Say it ain't so,Draco misses the metro!ReplyDelete
"There is a very interesting set up for early next week with the possibility of some snow about Cristmas",says Mr.Hammer at KSTP this morning,what does that mean?Another reason to be disappointed?,like others before them,starts out with promise,but in the end disappoints,like a hyped book or movie.ReplyDelete
I'm not sure I can add anything to what other have already said here. It's extremely disappointing to be too warm and then too cold for a snowstorm. Even the clippers don't come through here anymore. There was the hope last night of at least 2-3 inches of fresh snow between today's event and the big storm Wednesday/Thursday. Last night I went to bed with a forecast of a 70% chance of 1-2 inches today due to warm air overrun; especially here in the southern burbs. This morning that forecast has switched to possible flurries instead. Belinda on Kare 11 at 6 last night said that even if the big storm Wednesday/Thursday misses us we will still have plowable snow in the metro. I perked up when I heard that because she was the only met that I had heard speak about more than a possible inch. Kare typically is very conservative with its forecasts so I was cautiously optimistic. This morning Sven says forget about it. Surprised? No. Disappointed? Yes, again.ReplyDelete
Down here in Rochester the latest NAM shows... wait for it... wait.... 0.8 inches! GPS around 1.5. After the 4 inches during the last storm (where the cities got nailed), followed by the big melt down the brown Xmas is knocking on our door! Sounds like talk of another big storm next week but with the dome of cold air in place how could this not be pushed way south? The American models always playing catch-up with the EMCWF.ReplyDelete
Interesting. 03z SREF still hangs onto a significant snow for the southeast 1/3 of MN, incl. the MSP metro and the Euro has shifted storm track just a touch further north. . On the other hand, in the RST metro, the NAM has gone from 12"+ of snow to only 1" of snow within one model run/6 hour period.ReplyDelete
Looks like a happy medium is the call for this one. That would place the heavy snow axis from DSM to near LSE to near GRB and just grazing the MSP metro (especially se Metro) with accumulating snow.
I should show my two-year-old this site -- show her what real whining looks like :pReplyDelete
Don't worry guys. I've got a lot of driving to do next week. That always brings the snow.
Reading Paul Huttners blog this morning over at MPR,kinda made me get over this near miss tommorrow night(man so close,like I said earlier sharp gradient on where snow falls and doesn't fall),the way he talks/describes a potential Gulf Storm for us next week the day after xmas is insane,he says currently(yes I know tracks change daily)a storm will go from Houston to Wisconsin,basically due north and bring a ton of gulf moisture with it.....is that possible....I ask you Novak or others have you ever heard of a storm tracking like that?ReplyDelete
That's almost exactly what the Halloween Blizzard did.ReplyDelete
Yes Big Daddy that is the track that gives us our greatest dumps. GFS and Euro looking more similar this AM. I just hope a block does not set up to our North and cut this one off to our South. I thing the GFS is going a bit crazy however. You know this storm for tomorrow was never really supposed to be for us. A week ago this was always showing a southern track on the long range models (even into Tennesee). A few NAM runs got our hopes up but this was never really "our "storm. Still think The SE metro wil get some snow tomorrow nightReplyDelete
Don't lose total hope yet on WED-THUR storm. Yes it looks bleak, but the latest 15z SREF continues to paint accumulating snows over all of southeast MN including the MSP metro. Plus, the 12z GFS is cranking nearly 2" of snow in the south metro and 5" of snow in RST. Like Lloyd Christmas says: "So you're saying there is a chance?".ReplyDelete
big daddy: I was just talking about that scenario with a few people and told them I've never seen this type of an evolution (ECMWF) in my 15+ years of model interpretations. I highly doubt next week's storm will evolve like the Euro is depicting, but anything even close to that solution will be Blizzard-like conditions over much of the Upper Midwest.
Storm fully coming ashore as we speak. We will get some real good atmospheric measurements with the 18z & 00z model runs and then fine tune this puppy.ReplyDelete
Paul Huttner,based off the GFS,indicating storm has shifted slightly north and metro could see some 2-3 inch amounts,he also indicated the Euro has some lighter qpf for metro,whereas before it had us high and dry.He also mentioned the possibility of the need to expand the winter storm warnings northward if this trend contiues...........like Novak has said they still has a chance and still maybe a player yet for the metro(as I cross my fingers,and do the PWL snow dance)ReplyDelete
You can't ignore the impressive upper level dynamics with this storm. It appears that an initial area of divergence will develop over southeast MN tomorrow evening. This could easily enhance snow banding, esp. just southeast of the MSP metro. However, I'm beginning to buy into the SREF which has consistently painted around .30 of liquid in MSP and .60 inches of liquid in RST. This would equate to a good 2"-4" of snow in MSP metro and 5"-8" of snow in RST.ReplyDelete
However, I would like to view the 00z GFS & ECMWF before committing to this logic.
I just can't pull the trigger on higher totals in the metro. At best, 1"-3" with the highest totals extreme southeast metro near Hastings & Red Wing.ReplyDelete
@Novak,you sound a little hesitant with your above post like you wanted to go higher for the metro but.......ReplyDelete
GFS still painting a decent shot of snow for metro(up to 4"),but of course thats the only model,NWS even commented about it but at the same time said they are discounting it and instead basing their forecast package on the nam/euro...I guess we'll see how it shakes out.....still going to be a tight gradient of snow vs. no snow and heavy snow vs. light snow.......sucks thought that metro is not ground zero,hopefully next time,Novak any more word about the Christmas time snowstorm.
I think 1-3" across the metro overnight tonight, with 2-4" for the southeast metro is a pretty safe bet. Not the brunt of the storm, but enough to freshen up the snowpack before Christmas. Any new snow in addition to what's currently on the ground is not going anywhere, as temperatures will not be above freezing again before Christmas.ReplyDelete
12z nam just shifted north... now printing around 2 inches for MSP area...12z GFS similar to latest runs...ReplyDelete
Upper Level dynamics are impressive from 9pm - 9am over about the se 1/3 of MN. I'm thinking 1"-4" across the MSP metro with the heaviest amounts on the southeast side. Areas around RST & LSE will receive well over 6" of snow. A blizzard tomorrow in that part of the state is not out of the question.ReplyDelete
People in STC & BRD are going to wonder what all the fuss is about. Hardly a flake there.
what are points around Mankato looking like for snow?ReplyDelete
I know it's a week away, but I would like to see some more "chatter" regarding the set up for next week's potential blockbuster of a snowstorm/blizzard and the major Tornado (dixie alley) outbreak that some are forcasting.ReplyDelete
as far MSP area is concerned that one will also go south and east.ReplyDelete
I'd like some of the experts to explain to me why every winter it seems that it (significantly) snows everywhere else except that around MSP.
Is there something peculiar about its location?
Too much north for southern stream driven systems, too much south for northern stream driven systems, too far away from big bodies of water to get lake effect enhancement?
If anybody will shed some technical and expert opinion it would be greatly appreciated.
We just had nearly a foot of snow at MSP a week and a half ago. :-)ReplyDelete
NWS has stated that the storm track is now expected to be farther northwest. As a result there are now WSW as far north as Red Wing. WWA have been posted for the southern and southeastern burbs for 2-4 inches beginning late this afternoon.ReplyDelete
The Winter Storm warning has been replaced here in Rochester to a Blizzard Warning. 5-10 inches with winds of 25-mph sustained winds with gusts to 45 mph.ReplyDelete
But in Plymouth, I am not peeing my pants! I need it to keep shifting, but I don't think it will. I am running out of hope on this one. But I will still say......Bring it!!ReplyDelete
And anonymous....Didn't we just get 80-some inches two winters ago? And it was like the top 5 or top 10 ever. I think that you may have forgotten that.ReplyDelete
I think 1-4 inches of soft, powdery snow would be perfect leading into Christmas week. It will freshen the landscape without causing major headaches for those of us who need to get around this weekend.ReplyDelete
Over the last day or so models have ever so slowly shifted north in time,where as no snow was expected for the metro to now having some 1-3",what's the chances that this contiues and the metro actually ends up with more then expected currently.ReplyDelete
18Z GFS paints 3-5 inches over MSP with some of the south metro getting 6.ReplyDelete
Outlier? Or is the GFS on to something? Anybody have thoughts?
I saw that new GFS,Novak wants going on?what do you think?more metro snows?ReplyDelete
Light coating of white in Rosemount already...ReplyDelete
@ My Blog, you beat me to it. I was about to report that it's snowing lightly but steadily here in Rosemount. It started about half an hour ago.ReplyDelete
Started at 8:30 in St. Paul. That dusting is already in the bag!ReplyDelete
1/4" of snow in Inver Grove Heights (just south of St. Paul) in Dakota County. Normally nothing to get excited about but I was out of town for the Dec 9th storm. From the current MPX radar, looks like a little band of snow just SW of Minneapolis heading to the NE. Looking for anyone out there with some current analysis.ReplyDelete
Radar looks so promising just south of the Cities.....too bad it wont make it here.ReplyDelete
DysonGuy and Duane enjoy all the beautiful white powder coming your way!
Snowlovers 4 hated words: DRY TONGUE and DRY AIR!ReplyDelete
News Flash: Christmas storm a non-factor for the metro,again south and east will enjoy the snowfall!
I know we all like to get wrapped up in the predictions and discussion leading up to each snow event, and each event some forecasters and models will always get it right further out (though it can be different wxcasters/models each time)... it should be noted that 'most' have done an excellent job of really nailing things down within 12-24 hrs of the event... and I think that's all that we can ask of them. Most had totals rapidly increasing as the blizzard almost 2 weeks ago neared, most had last weekend dialed in to mostly rain with a slushy coating as we closed in on, and most nailed this one by yesterday with the sharp cutoff across the metro from nw to se. There are always exceptions (see Yuhas and the first Blizzard) but overall most 'get it right' within 12-24hrs.ReplyDelete
For me (as a snow relocation specialist ;-)) that's all I ask for. I don't mind hearing the early predictions and being made aware of the potential, just do it without the hype, and give me something you're confident in once it's within striking distance.
Despite our incredible winter two years ago, it has been extremely frustrating to watch Madison get the vast majority of major winter storms the past five or six years. Is this a recent development, or have they historically gotten more snow than us?ReplyDelete
If you compare 30-year average MSP average snowfall is around 55" MSN is 50.9" according to the NWS...Delete
so you would say pretty close.
However, I agree with you. I have the feeling and remember clearly that save 2011-2012 all major snowstorms detour to the south and east and favor the Des Moines to Madison area.
@Joel Fischer and Anonymous:ReplyDelete
I think that traditionally MSP yearly snowfall is usually the consequence of a lot of 2-3 inch clipper like systems every 4-5 days, and then usually in March (when March was a real winter month) you get a couple of snowstorms, whereas the MSN area tends to have big snowstorms that dump most of the yearly snowfall (a bit like the Nor'easters for Boston).
So because a 2 inch here and there does not cause a lot of attention but a big blizzard does, we tend to remember the latter better.
Problem is: it seems like clippers do not happen anymore with the same frequency of the past...
Based on the CFS, we will be going into a pattern that favors clippers in the January timeframe.Delete
I agree about the clippers. I don't remember the last one that gave us more than an inch or two of snow. I remember we'd regularly get 3-6 inches from clipper systems. Or am I mis-remembering that?ReplyDelete
Well this looks to be it for a while. Outside of some light snow chances on Christmas and perhaps the weekend after there isn't really anything major on any of the forecast models. Certainly future model runs could increase the strength of these to make them more noteworthy but for now nothing major to report. I guess now we'll be watching the temps over the next few weeks to see if the arctic air that has been bottled up to our north will make its move into our area.ReplyDelete
The big clippers might drop 6, but the run of the mill Alberta clipper is an inch or two.ReplyDelete
Need to remember that 10 inches of snow from a storm is quite rare for us. MSP averages a 10 inch snowfall once every two years. The fact that we have people complaining because every storm doesn't track over MSP is just crazy. The metro was in the bulls eye of (I think) the third largest December storm in recorded history.
Think about that. Two weeks ago, the Twin Cities got hit by a historic December storm that we've already written off and complain that we don't get them.
Nope. I'm not complaining that we don't get them. If I'm complaining at all, it's that the strongest storms (Colorado/southern lows) seem to RARELY track over MSP, and when they do, it's too warm. The one two weeks ago was not a Colorado or southern low. We didn't have a proper one at all last winter. How many 10" snowfalls have Des Moines and Madison had in the last 6 years vs. MSP? Where could I look up this information for myself?ReplyDelete
Joel: Keep in mind that CO. lows and panhandle hook type storms that pass over us most likely produce little to now snow, most snows for that track would be nw of us. We really need the storms to track from Lacrosse to Green Bay to put us in the bulls eye. The reason this storm didn't follow that track is two fold. Number 1, the western edge of the high pressure ridge to our east did not extend far enough west, and number two and most importantly, just before this system moved north, a low pressure system passed over the international border of Canada and the US. With it's counter clockwise rotation is dropped just enough cold air south between 5000-1200 ft to push the track just far enough south to be a miss for most of the metro.Delete
That should read 5000-12000 ft sorryDelete
Randy, I believe we just said the same thing. I assume when people talk about these lows tracking over us, that they in fact mean that the snow bullseye tracks over us. Obviously, the center of such a low over MSP would not give us appreciable snow. I've understood this since I was in Junior High.Delete
I'm merely talking about trends, not griping about not getting snow. I've lived in Central Iowa, and it seemed to be rather rare to get a humdinger of a snowstorm like they've received quite a number of in the past 6 years. (Again, I love snow, so I understand that my recollection may be biased.)
You should be able to find precip data from the NCDC (National Climatic Data Center).ReplyDelete
I don't know what the averages or Des Moines or Madison are. They are further south so I would expect them to have bigger snowfalls because of more moisture available.
So yes it is rare for the perfect track to bring heavy snowfall to the Cities. Thats why it only happens once every two years.
The information I could find on the web shows that Madison's average snowfallsReplyDelete
are 14.7(1"), 4.8(3"), 2.0(5"), 0.3(10") per year
Minneapolis' are 15.7, 5.0, 2.0, & 0.4 per year,
Des Moines' are 11.0, 4.1, 1.3, & 0.0 per year.
I'd love to dig deeper and find the past 10 years. Not sure how to do it.
I did a very quick look at the last few years for Des Moines and Madison and found that the last snow storm to drop over 10" in Des Moines was December 8th-9th 2009. This also took the same path and dropped over 10" in Madison. Madison had one other 3 day period - January 31st - Feb 2nd, 2011 that dropped over 10". But that was the same winter MSP was pounded by storm after storm. I think this is just more of a feeling than what can be backed up by actual data.ReplyDelete
Feb 5-6, 2008 - 13.4"ReplyDelete
Dec 19-20, 2008 - 13.7"
Dec 8-9, 2009 - 14.1"
Dec 19-20, 2012 - 14.2" (as of 6pm today)
Jan 31-Feb 2, 2011 - 18.7"
These were the easiest to find. That's at least 5 in the last 5 years. Well above normal for them.
3 words can sum up the weather forecast for the next 10 days for MSP:ReplyDelete
COLD DRY BORING....enough said!
Totally diasagree...cold then active storm track resumesDelete
Hammer: NWS pretty much says the same thing as Sam G. Like it or not.Delete
@Hammer,what are you seeing?when does this active storm track resume for us?Mid-south/Ohio valley look to be getting into the winter fun next week which may also spin up a east coast storm,but nothing that would threaten us.Delete
Next Friday/Sat Southerly flow moving into arctic airReplyDelete
@randyinchamplin @hammer and others..ReplyDelete
Am I wrong or the last 2 biggest snowstorms impacting MSP metro area (the December 2010 blizzard that collapsed the metrodome's roof and the one a couple of weeks ago) almost tracked due east across Norhern Iowa?
It seems that is a much favorable track than Panhandle Hookers or Colorado lows.
Also, in both cases it seemed these storms were not forecast to be a big deal until 2 days before the event.
Does that mean that type of west-east track favors a strengthening of the storm just at the right time?
You bet. If you look at the geography, as storms get passed the rockies, they get immidiate acess to the rich moisture from the gulf, which they guzzle in. Then, they explode just like when you put gas onto a fire.Delete
at Anonymous 1:10 pm. That is a great question. Here is a couple of links that will show the reanalysis of the Dec 2010 storm that you referred to. In both links the upper left map is the 500mb heights and vorticity map (vorticity to put it simply is the amount of counter clockwise spin at that level.) The upper right map is the surface, the lower left is the 700mb heights and relative humidity, and the lower right is the 850mb heights at that level. In the first link look at where the low forms at the surface and how quickly it dropped to the the south and than cut up into the Lacrosse area. Take notice of the Relative Humidity values over us the low got near Lacrosse, they got quite high.ReplyDelete
Now with the same maps look at what happened to the Relative Humidity values as the low got near the Chicago area.
that was a very complicated storm track.
Haven't look at the storm from this year yet
I'm about to make a fool of myself, but this is how I see things setting up compared to my winter forecast that I put out on this site around early Nov. I called for 38" of snow for the season and the Winter temps (Dec-Feb) around -2° compared to the seasonal mean based on a thirty year period from 1980-2010. That was based on strong sea surface temp anomalies along the west coast of Canada (very cold), and equally strong sea surface temps just off the NE CONUS coast (very warm.)ReplyDelete
That led me to think that NW Canada would be very cold, allowing very cold temps to set up to our northwest. At the same time I thought a very strong blocking feature would set up between Greenland and the Hudson Bay area, (a strong ridge) if you will, causing a very strong negative west based North Atlantic Oscillation, commonly referred to as the NOA. The NOA is comprised of blocking to the east of Greenland called the east based block, and normally the west based block will set up along the southern tip of Greenland, but this winter I thought it would set up well west of Greenland, which we now have.
Of course it gets more complicated than that, but the long and short of it this, the pattern shows no real change through the first half of January and it may last through the end of that month. So it looks like cold and dry, with maybe a couple of clippers coming in to drop 1-3" of snow.
So that sets us up for February which will most likely be a transition month with a few more minor snowfalls as we approach March. Could March bring us a couple of major winter storms around tourney time that we are famous for, but few of us remember? Stay tuned, I think so.
By the way, the chances that the Euro shows of snowfall the next weekend, 28,29 time frame will likely not happen as it seems to go against it's own tellecontion indices.
So there it is my fool's forecast for the rest of the winter.
ECMWF giving us a decent snow for the 28th now... each succesive model run has either strenthgened the low or pushed it on a more favorable track.ReplyDelete
GFS starting to hint as well... although it pushes the low south.
GFS has an alberta clipper coming in monday (the 24th)... ECMWF does not, but the snows keep getting closer with each succesive run. Mayby an inch or two from that, or three if we are lucky. You know, a typical alberta clipper.
The 23/0z run of the Euro has now shifted the snow to our SE as I expected it would, for the 28-29 storm.Delete
Keep an eye on that inverted trough extending back into MN on the Euro run. If it can become a stronger trough then perhaps there is some accumulating snow potential there. There is zero model agreement with how that system will play out, or even if it will exist. It's pretty much all that is on the maps that looks decent so it is something to watch over the next week.Delete
@Randyinchamplin,in regards to your statement above,talking about "a fools forecast",its obvious your very knowledgable about weather when reading your posts you speak in such detail,the issue I have is believing you because at times you contradict yourself and are constantly revising and changing your mind,case in point:ReplyDelete
Back on 11/30 you made a comment about how you had to revise your winter forecast,and said two 6" snows will not occur in December and your new winter snowfall is 25-28",well we didn't have two storms,but one storm took a 10.5" chunk out of your total and currently we seat at 13.1".Based on your above statements "of a couple of 1-3" clippers" and "minor snowfalls in February",that should take us near your 25-28 total,but the problem is you don't stop there and go on to say "a couple of major winter tourney time storms will occur",so if a couple do in fact occur it will blow your 25-28 number out the water,so you see you contradict yourself and I find it hard to believe you.
NWS has snow likely for tonight,with 1-2" snowfall,perfect timing to whiten up our landscape for Christmas.I agree with Duane watch that inverted trough,its not much but its the only thing after tonight that's on the maps for us.ReplyDelete
Hammer did say something about a active storm track resuming xmas week,I hope so!
Sorry guys, I know a new thread is long overdue. I had to put my 17-year-old dog down on Friday so I've been a bit distracted.ReplyDelete