Monday, December 31, 2012

How Cold for New Years Eve?

With little interesting weather to track, we're focusing on the overnight low temps forecast for this New Years Eve (and the overnight time period) for the MSP airport. Interestingly, all local television meteorologists were forecasting temps to be colder than virtually all national outlets. As of 6 p.m. this New Years Eve, here's the info we gathered.


WCCO: -8
KSTP: -6
KMSP: -8
KARE: -7
NWS: -3
Accuweather: -3
TWC: 0
Intellicast: 0

20 comments:

  1. @Bill,I wish you a healthy and Happy New Year,and thank you for contiuing this blog into the new year,I enjoy reading and discussioning the weather that has the potential to effect us here in Minnesota.
    Also here are a few other temperatures I came across:
    Wunderground.......-8
    Star Tribune......-6(Todd Nelson from 12/30)
    MPR......"subzero lows likely"(I know kind of vague,but that's all he provides)
    I feel when temperatures get below zero,does it really matter how low it gets,that's just too freakin cold enough.......just like in the summer,when it gets above 90 does it really matter how much higher it gets,its hot enough at 90!

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  2. Midnight temperature was 1 above(a far cry from last years 28 degrees),the current 7am temperature is -6!
    December's snowfall was 15",which was 3" above normal,hopefully that trend contiues into January,although it looks like it will be a slow start,I'm hoping things become more active as we move thru the second week.

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  3. It was -11 in Lakeville as of 7:30 this morning. I hope 2013 activates Mother Nature's Minnesota snow machine! Happy New Year everybody!

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  4. Guys, I know this is WAY far out, but I think there is a potential for a snowstorm in the Jan 10-12 range. I know that it is beyond the "credibillity" zone of the GFS, but it has been hinting at it for several model runs now. 8 out of its 12 Ensembles also hint at it. From what I can get out of the ECMWF, it also shows signs of life, along with its ensemble mean. The MRF also has all eyes on it, and the FIM also has it.

    We all know what the reliabillity is for models this far out, but for the models to be agreeing as close as they are for this far out is astounding. It may just dissapear, but hey, it is worth wathcing.

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  5. Does anybody have any technical information regarding the duration and strength of the pending January thaw next week? I hope it doesn't get too warm and last too long. It's not as though we have a thick snow base, and besides, it's January!!

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    Replies
    1. I hope my post below helps answer that question

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    2. @randyinchamplin. Thanks for the very interesting and informative post.

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  6. Plymouth Weather LoverJanuary 1, 2013 at 7:58 PM

    Bring the snow talk. Need to bring it. This is boring. Being it.

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  7. First of all I would direct everyone's attention to a post that Duane authored in the previous thread on Dec 28th. He mentioned a Strat Warming event, (Sudden Stratospheric Warming.) Well this is currently under way as depicted by the observed temps at 50mb, approximately one half way up into the Stratosphere. This normally happens near or over the north pole. Because the stratosphere warms it has the effect of breaking down the polar vortex (PV) over the pole at the tropospheric level (where we live.) The PV acts to keep the true arctic air trapped over the poll, when it breaks down the cold can escape to the south, either into North America or over the other side into Russia or Europe. The cold will normally show up some 10 days to two weeks after the SSW occurs.

    Here is a link to the animation showing the SSW event at 50mb.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp50anim.shtml

    I does appear that at least some of the cold air could set up into Canada just before the models show a storm for us around the 11th of Jan, (timing yet to be determined.) For the storm itself, at this time it appears to have some precip type issues. However I don't think that is the main factor. I think the bigger issue is that as it passes to our north it will have the effect of pulling some of that cold air down from Canada, and if it in fact does, it could mean a prolonged cold spell for much of the continental USA.

    I'm not yet ready to say a cross polar flow with the famous Siberian Express is heading our way, but and I do mean but, it could happen.

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    1. Here are a couple of links that you can use if you want, the first is the ECMWF and second is the GFS. On the ECMWF site North America is located at the left center of the map, the GFS map has us at the bottom of the map.

      http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/diag.php?alert=2&lng=eng


      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/

      Here is blog that you can read on the event, the author obviously knows more about it than me, but I can't find any info on him/her, but it's a good read nonetheless. In other words credibility issues. I would however draw your attention to the analog year of 1985 that he shows as opposed to current conditions. I can post a link as to what Jan 15-Feb 12th 1985 looked like as opposed to climatology from 1981-2010, just let me know.

      http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2013/01/could-polar-vortex-collapse-like.html

      BTW, I just found that site a couple of weeks ago, the other links that I posted here I have had for a couple of years.

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  8. @bemaki,as usual Randyinchamplin beat me to it(your too fast Randy)but that 10th-12th storm looks to be some precip issues,but as usual that can change being so far out,but at least its something to track.
    Randy please dont send the Siberian Express,thats just too damn cold,and not ideal snow producing weather,the storm track will be way far south.

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  9. All national outlets(accuweather/weather channel/wunderground)have some type of snow and/or precip mention centered around 10th/11th of January.And now even the NWS in their morning discussion and Mr. Hammer in his morning blog mention the possibility/potential of a storm next week as well,inally something on the horizon!(as I cross my fingers)

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  10. Nice blob of snow expanding on radar...........just west of the metro,should arrive here before noon!maybe we can get an inch.

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  11. Those of you who like your winters like the winters of yesteryear need to check out Paul Huttner's blog this morning(goes in line with what Randyinchamplain speaks of above in regards to the Siberian Express).He does also hit upon the storm potential late next week,saying the potential exists for a rain changing to snow scenerio.But what caught my eye is the greater then 50% chance he gives for a prolonged barbarically(the exact word he used)arctic outbreak after Jan. 12th,with below zero daytime highs for a week and nightime lows as low as -31 degrees,he's basing this off the 15 day GFS model,which of course will change over time,but IF it verifies........WOW!!
    I also like the jab he takes at Paul Douglas(I read his blog daily as well)when just last night PD says his gut thinks it will be another wimpy abbreivated winter for MN,and Paul Huttner counters with forecasters calling for a wimpy/abbreivated winter will be in for a shock.
    Nothing else,this should be interesting,stay tuned!

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  12. Whenever I want a positive winter forecast, I read Paul Douglas. When I'm looking for the prediction of a fatalist (rooting for -50F, 50 feet of snow, etc.), I read Huttner.

    Just kidding, I read them both most days.

    I was in Chicago over the holidays. That is a different world in the winter than the Twin Cities. It was 34F almost every day, and there was absolutely zero snow on the ground until the last day (and even that didn't stick to pavement). I could get used to that.

    For some reason I was longing for black ice, cars in the ditch, dirty snow piles, doing the penguin walk. Wait, no I wasn't :)

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  13. Regarding the north pole moving to Minnesota two weeks from now, here's a very good blog post from Stu Ostro comparing the GFS and the Euro:

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/stuostro

    p.s. Stu comes from Wunderground's new Weather Channel overlords, but I'm pleased to say that he's pretty good and fairly technical.

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  14. How about a new thread to track the allegedly arctic air we'll see from 1/15 thru 1/17. The GFS has moderated big time over the past 24 hours. It was previously saying -31F for 1/16 and is now saying -10F. Moreover, the GFS and Euro are nowhere near agreeing on 1/12.

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  15. It looks like a storm nearly identical to Dec 15th will move in next Thursday and give us more rain. (sigh) Then hopefully another storm will bring us at least a few inches of snow before the Arctic air moves back in. That will be the big question mark of how cold this air will be. With little in the way of snow on the ground, it could be similar to the middle of January last year. With a solid snowpack, the GFS may not be that far off, and it could be closer to the middle of January '09.

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    1. I am not too sure. The models are in chaos right now. Each one has its own idea. This time of year is when the ECMWF starts to drop in accuracy. The newest run of the GFS hints at snow next tuesday, and the ECMWF expects a HUGE snowstorm after that rainstorm it expects this coming thursday, although with no hint at any snow chances with tuesday.

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  16. I agree the models do struggle this time of the year, including the ECMWF. However, I'm gaining confidence in the rain next Thursday, due to warmer air that will be in place, and seeing it on almost every run of the ECMWF over the last 3-4 days. Same thing goes for the Arctic air spilling down from Canada a few days later. What happens in the 2-3 day period between this is the big question where no model has shown any consistency. This is just my current thought, but of course we are talking a week to week and a half out yet so nothing is certain.

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