How much value is there in weather models, particularly one notoriously nicknamed "Good For Shit," that predict temperatures more than a week out? We're about to find out.
Two recent entries in blogs by the Twin Cities' "weather Pauls" noted that the GFS model predicts some mighty cold temperatures arriving in the middle of the month.
The Updraft MPR weather blog, authored by Paul Huttner, included this depiction of the GFS forecast in its edition yesterday (Wednesday) morning. Note the model includes a full week of all-day sub-zero temperatures with a low of -31F on Wednesday, January 16.
For more complete context, including Paul's thoughts on how likely it is that the arctic cold will materialize, refer to the full blog entry here.
This Thursday morning, Paul Douglas's Star Tribune weather blog included this GFS capture:
As an interested but essentially uninformed weather enthusiast, I'd like to know how accurate the GFS model is for a forecast that many days out. While temperatures undoubtedly flip flop, does the overall trend remain? Or is it a case of the long-range GFS and $3 will get you a beer?
Your thoughts, dear Minnesota weather enthusiasts?