Game, Set and Match: Weather Underground

If you enjoy watching and comparing the various forecasts issued by local and national weather sources, today made for great entertainment. We love it when forecasters separate from the crowd. It gives us something to watch when someone takes a chance.

We began monitoring the forecasts for today last Friday. It was hard not to miss the fact that Weather Underground BestForecast was out on a limb, five degrees higher than any other weather outlet. Comments to a recent post derided Weather Underground's renegade forecast, pronouncing it to be a "joke." Well, they're certain laughing back at WU's San Francisco headquarters in China Basin after today's high reached exactly what WU forecast last Friday. Well done, gentleman.

Here's how far off (under predicted) the various weather sources were based on today's actual temperature and Friday's forecast high.

Wunderground BestForecast: 95 (exact!)

Weather.com: 89 (-6)

Accuweather.com: 85 (-10)

Weather.gov: 89 (-6)

Wcco: 86 (-9)

Kstp: 85 (-10)

Kmsp: 87 (-8)

Kare: 85 (-10)

Strib: 80 (-15)

It's interesting to note that the best local television forecast was 8 degrees off, yet the national and governmental sources, excluding Accuweather, were within 6 degrees. Not a good showing for the locals.

Score One for the Outliers

Last Thursday evening (March 1), we took a look at a few weather outlets’ extended forecasts for the current week of (very changeable) weather. What struck us most were the forecasts of Weather Underground on Tuesday and KSTP on Thursday. Both forecasts stood out in marked contrast to all the others. Weather Underground’s (BestForecast) forecast high was 10 degrees higher than all others on Tuesday. Similarly, KSTP’s forecast high for Thursday was 8 degrees colder than Accuweather’s and 13 degrees colder than all others’. Odd, or so it seemed. But in the end, when Tuesday clocked in at mild 60 and Thursday registered a back-to-winter-like 37, the outlier forecasts were pretty much dead on.

Here’s to the forecasters who aren’t afraid to stand alone and take risks. You keep life interesting, and sometimes, you’re the most accurate!

Weather Underground Launches "Best Forecast"

For fans of weather accuracy assessment, today was a good day. In the process of launching its new "Best Forecast" feature, Weather Underground is also providing an unprecedented level of transparency by providing an accuracy comparison with the National Weather Service's National Digital Forecast Database.

Given Minnesota's reputation as a notoriously challenging location for weather forecasting, it will be interesting to see how the "Best Forecast" feature fares for our area. Either way, we applaud WU's new innovation in weather forecasting.

For more information about the new system, click here.