"S" Word Makes Annual Debut (Kinda Early)

If winter's not your thing (in which case what the heck are you living in Minnesota for?), you're probably quaking in your boots. If you're a winter lover, your day is drawing near, possibly much sooner than you dreamed possible.

Several weather outlets are introducing the possibility of a little snow Friday night into Saturday morning. An arresting thought to be sure. Seems like it's almost time to cue up one of our favorite songs.

Here are a few graphics that capture the potentially wintry weather headed our way just days into the official beginning of meteorologic fall.

NWS Forecast

Analysis of Forecaster Performance for Dec. 9 Storm

The final total for this weekend’s snowstorm was 10.5 at the official MSP airport recording station. The core metro area snowfall ranged from 9 to 14 inches with an even foot of snow a common observation, including here at TMF headquarters in St. Paul.

No forecaster anticipated the possibly of a truly major snowfall until late Saturday afternoon. Even then, most forecasts did not fully capture the extent of the burgeoning snowstorm. (Note, for weather geeks looking to get a meteorological explanation for the late-changing forecast, MPR provides a good analysis here.)

Rather than provide forecaster grades as we have in the past, we’ll focus on a few general observations. Given that we don’t capture forecast activity in a truly systematic, day-by-day manner, we feel that the assignment of grades suggests a level of authority and exactness we simply don’t have. Still, we believe we monitor the forecasts enough to offer reasonable opinions. As always, take them for what they’re worth. We invite readers to provide grades and thoughts in the comment section to this post.

Our observations:

The best performers for this storm were the National Weather Service (NWS) and Novak Weather. Most other forecast outlets did not distinguish themselves.

Virtually all forecasters eyed this storm for the better part of a week. However, several minimized the storm as recently as Thursday. On Thursday, KMSP tweeted, “Winter returns the next few days, flurries late Fri afternoon, flurries Sat and wicked cold by Mon.” On Thursday evening, the Star Tribune noted the possibility of 1-3 inches of “oatmeal-like slush,” jokingly suggesting it would be cause to contact MnDOT and the National Guard. Likewise, the Weather Channel noted the possibility of mere “snow showers” over the weekend. At the same time, however, other forecasters were not ready to conclude the storm would be a minimal, back-page item.

KMSP was Jekyll & Hyde on this one. After the overly minimizing tweet on Thursday, they had the best standing prediction on Friday night with a forecast of 6-8 inches. But by Saturday, they’d revised it downward to 4.1 inches (the “snow meter.”)

The NWS consistently predicted higher amounts than the majority of forecasters 36 hours prior to the storm’s arrival. Some readers/viewers may have wondered whether a winter storm warning for MSP would prove to be warranted; clearly, it was.

Novak Weather also lead the way on this forecast, staying the course of a forecast of 6+ inches for MSP from early on. On Saturday afternoon, Novak Weather was also the first to communicate the possibility that accumulations could “get out of hand quickly for MSP” on Sunday as they ultimately did.

The separation of men from boys on this forecast took place Saturday afternoon and evening. Some forecasters picked up on the late-developing possibility of a truly significant snowfall while others did not. As detailed in the previous post, forecasts by KSTP (Jonathan Yuhas) and KMSP (Steve Frazier) missed the boat in not noting the late change in the storm’s evolution (though it should be noted that other members of the KSTP forecasting team tweeted 5-8 inch forecasts at the same time Yuhas was on air forecasting 3-6 inches).

A Busted Summer Weekend Forecast (Like You Didn't Know)

Not that you needed us to tell you, but yes, it was a busted forecast this weekend. In fact, it could be argued that the inverse of what was forecast occurred for much of the weekend.

As of Friday night, the consensus of forecasters was that Saturday would likely bring rain by evening, possibly heavy, and that Sunday would be a delightful day for dads desiring good weather. This is a tweet that's representative of many others with a similar message.

In general, the complete opposite happened. Saturday morning provided an unexpected washout (approximately .5 inch of rain fell in St. Paul) and the afternoon (for the central Twin Cities) provided only fleeting light showers that were hardly worth noting. By 1 p.m. Sunday, rain had begun to fall in St. Paul, and the radar suggested that rain would threaten for the rest of the day.

Think the anger over a missed summer forecast isn’t real? Think again. Here’s what one tweeter had to say:

We applaud Jerrid Sebesta for invoking a little humor into the situation:

Huge Disparity for Saturday Forecast

So what happened today? And what are the prospects of sunshine tomorrow? Here's what the NWS told us:

"Higher than today...but still some concerns. The problem today was a batch of high clouds on top of the lower stratus earlier today which likely limited the ability of the sun to dissipate the lower clouds somewhat. Also...the stratus was quite thick. We do expect clouds for tomorrow morning and we'll even have to watch out for dense fog in the morning. Don't expect full sun tomorrow...but it certainly looks like a partly cloudy scenario by the afternoon.

Update: As of Saturday early afternoon, Twin Cities forecasters were using the B word to describe today's forecast. Kudos to @NovakWeather for being the first to tell us it would stay cloudy and cool.

As of this Saturday morning, there was a huge disparity in forecasts for Saturday's high temperatures. Forecast highs ranged from the upper 50s to 74. Here was a sampling that we found.

weather.com

Accuweather

KARE11

NWS

Nowcasting Gone Wrong (Redux)

Last July, we wrote about "A Case of Nowcasting Gone Terribly Wrong," in which we wrote about Jonathan Yuhas's efforts to provide a nowcast, essentially a very short-term forecast, for how the weather might or might not affect a Twins game and a U2 concert. We wanted to believe his incorrect forecast was a one-time thing, a combination of bad luck and poor judgement. Now, however, we're not so sure.

At 4:03 p.m. on Monday, he tweeted this:

 

We looked at the radar at the time of the tweet, and this is what it showed (the radar crosshair is pegged at Lakeville):

At the time, it struck us as odd that the tiny, isolated cell (in yellow, about a county to a county and a half just east of due south of Lakeville) could be expected to hold together and land on Lakeville by 5 p.m.

Moments later, we expressed our thoughts to @JonathanYuhas:

Jonathan did not respond to our inquiry.

Fast forward to 5 p.m., and this was the Lakeville-centered radar depiction:

As the radar shows, there were no showers or thunderstorms anywhere remotely close to Lakeville. The t-storm near Owatonna, small as it was, had completely dissipated.

We understand the value of short-term forecasting and warning people about precipitation, but it's our feeling that the science is not yet to the point where such precise forecasts can be made. We think weather consumers are better served by the more general precipitation "nowcast" tweets that many other local meteorologists were tweeting at about the same time.

A Case of Nowcasting Gone Terribly Wrong

We've been meaning to post a small philosophical essay about the pros and cons of nowcasting, the practice of giving short-term updates on weather activity that's generally not considered forecasting. While that post will have to wait for another day, today's weather forecaster analysis wouldn't be complete without reviewing today's "nowcast" tweets of @JonathanYuhas. We're not trying to pick on Jonathan, but it sure seemed like everything he said turned out to be completely wrong. The following chronicles a night of forecasting-challenging weather juxtaposed with Jonathan's nowcasting tweets.

We begin tracking Jonathan's tweets about 4:45 p.m. as the Twins game was moving into the later innings.

While the quantification of a possible "25-minute rain" seemed overly precise, particularly since there was no guarantee the rain would even arrive, it was a nice little heads up, both for fans watching on TV and fans attending the game.

About 15 minutes later, Jonathan issued his next tweet, delaying the possible arrival time of a 25-minute rain to 5:30.

As 5:30 approached, Jonathan determined that the rain was breaking up, and called off the possibility of rain for Target Field. Notably, he stated that the storms WILL fire up over the next 7 hours (not "might" fire up):

Next, Jonathan decided it would no longer be a stormy night, mentioning the possibility of only light showers.

By approximately 8:45, Jonathan minimized the threat of rain even further, calling for the possibility of sprinkles at worst for the U2 concert-goers. He pronounced that the cooler airmass over the Twin Cities precluded the possibility of any severe storms.

But just as Jonathan seemed to kiss any chance of significant rain goodbye, things started to change. Shortly after that, the radar began to blossom. Light green echoes turned to dark green, and then quickly to yellow, orange and red.

Jonathan took note of the changing radar and alerted concert-goers about the possibility that some rain and thunder could "graze" the U2 concert.

At about this time, 1" hail estimates were coming in from Brooklyn Park. The line of storms began to sag southeast and back-build to the west. At 9:49 p.m. the National Weather Service issued this special statement noting significant storm activity for the University of Minnesota, site of the U2 concert:

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ORIGINATING FROM THIS STORM ARE LIKELY TO BE EXPERIENCED IN MINNEAPOLIS...ST. PAUL...AND LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN THE DOWNTOWNS...INCLUDING THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA.

Shortly thereafter, reports of torrential rain and cloud-to-ground lightning were reported at the University of Minnesota's TCF Bank Stadium. At 10:19 p.m, here was the Weather Underground radar depiction:

Unfazed by his missteps that seemed to occur with every tweet, Jonathan, the consummate professional, plowed forward, giving his followers one last concert update:

A final tweet, five minutes before 11 p.m., pronounced the storm still sitting over the U of M:

In fairness, other forecasters noted some of the same general trends, but their tweets weren't quite so precise or quite so wrong. We do think Jonathan deserves credit for actively tweeting in the first place, as it reflects his passion for what he does (and an understanding of the emerging importance of social media in weather communication).

Still, tonight's events raise a few questions: Is nowcasting, particularly in a convective summer environment, really such a good thing? And is too much credence given to every turn of the radar, sometimes at the expense of seeing the big picture of possibilities?

Twitter and Twin Cities Forecasters: Who Should You Follow?

Twitter and Weather

As social media, and in particular Twitter, become more and more the standard for the dissemination of weather information, we thought we’d devote a post to the tweeting activities of Twin Cities weather outlets and forecasters. We’ll include our philosophy on weather tweeting as well as an outlet-by-outlet assessment of the weathercasters with Twitter accounts.

The Need for a Single Voice

As it stands now, there’s a fair amount of inconsistency in the world of weather tweeting. For example, when breaking weather events develop, one can’t be sure whether it’s better to follow the generic station weather Twitter account (i.e., @WCCOWeather) or whether it’s preferable to follow one’s favorite weathercaster to receive updates. The generic Twitter weather accounts primarily just provide a single morning tweet on the day’s forecast; they’re essentially useless as a source for breaking weather. However, relying on a particular forecaster to provide timely tweets can be hit and miss, depending on whether the meteorologist is working at that time of day or is otherwise moved to tweet.

We think weather outlets (primarily the television entities) would be well served to dedicate a single Twitter account whose sole purpose would be to provide breaking weather information. Twitter account names could be clear for this purpose, something along the lines of Fox9BreakingWx or KSTPBreakingWx.

Just the Weather, Ma’am

We understand that the “social” in “social media” suggests a type of communication that’s informal, friendly and almost fun, but when it comes to weather information, we think the tweets should stick to weather. It’s our feeling that weathercasters are first and foremost providers of weather, and not celebrities whose vacations and daily doings we need to know about. Yes, we’re old school.

Just as importantly, too many nonweather-related tweets add up to wasted time, a commodity we all find to be in such short supply. Reading about the extreme garage sale, the trip to Israel, or one’s idle thoughts on Idol mean junk mail in the Twitter mailbox of a weather enthusiast.

Not surprisingly, it appears that television weathercasters are more apt to delve into the “social” side of things than authors of weather blogs whose tweets are almost exclusively weather related. For weathercasters interested in sharing their personality, we suggest the use of separate Twitter accounts for weather information and celebrity doings.

Who’s Tweeting?

The following is a listing of the weather tweeters of the Twin Cities. Our list may not be complete; please let us know if there are others we may be missing. And, as always, we’d love to hear your opinion.

WCCO

@MorningWXGuy (Mike Augustyniak). Prolific tweeter. Unfortunately, roughly half of those tweets are not weather related. If you’re looking to follow him for weather information, you’ll have to sift through a lot of extraneous stuff.

@WCCOShaffer. A basic, middle-of-the-road weather tweeter who seems responsive to followers’ questions and comments.

@WCCOWeather. Daily weather tweets that provide links to daily WCCO weather blogs or the weather page. Good, standard fare.

KSTP

@Dave_Dahl. Given the sporadic rate of his tweets, you get the impression that KSTP is encouraging him to tweet, but he’s just not quite into it.

@PatHammer. Frequent tweeter of mostly weather information. Consistently provides weather expectations for Twins games.

@ChikageWindler. Yes, she’s in Indy now, but still a timely source for breaking Minnesota weather. Very social tweeter.

@KenBarlowWx. Past record (from previous job in California) suggests a regular, primarily weather-oriented tweeter. We anticipate an initial period of sentimental “it’s nice to be back in MN” tweets, but hopefully weather discussion will quickly prevail.

@KSTPWeather. Generally your basic straight “today’s weather” daily tweet. However, there are times when it’s used to retweet tweets from other KSTP staff, which feels overly promotional to us.

FOX

@Fox9MJurica. Marina Jurica. Average tweeter. Generally sticks to weather only.

@Ian_Leonard. A rather prolific tweeter with particularly frequent updates during severe weather. Sometimes on the edge of too many tweets that aren’t weather related.

@KeithMarler. For the most part, tweets are dutiful morning weather updates. Non-weather tweets are existent, but minimal.

@fox9weather. Inactive since March 28. Why?

KARE

@JonathanYuhas. Prolific tweeter. All are weather related with some relating to interesting weather beyond Minnesota. Good stuff.

@SvenSundgaard. Frequent tweeter with tweets both social and weather related. Tweets are a bit more personal/social/agenda-related than we’d like to see.

@kare11wx. The daily – weekdays only – source of singular “today’s weather” updates. Why is this account inactive on weekends when weather is arguably more important than weekdays?

@jerridsebesta. A fairly prolific tweeter, but too many tweets that have nothing to do with weather for our taste.

Star Tribune

@Pdouglasweather.  Excellent use of Twitter. Tweets are both regular and timely, combining reference to the Twin Cities most widely read weather blog and breaking weather information. Frequency of severe weather tweets are “just right.”

Minnesota Public Radio

@MPRWeather. Another excellent employer of Twitter. Tweets are exclusively weather related and come with appropriate frequency. A solid source of weather information for both the Twin Cities and greater Minnesota.

NWS

@iembot_mpx (through Iowa State) Other

@NovakWeather. A Rochester-based meteorologist and all-business tweeter who covers the Minneapolis-Rochester corridor. Provides a nice mix of scientific-speak tweets to weather enthusiasts and more basic updates for general interest followers.

Regional

@darylritchison -- WDAY Fargo, ND @Mitch_Keegan -- KEYC Mankato, MN