Saturday, February 1, 2025

Will February Offer Hope for Snow-Starved Winter Lovers?

Solidly in the midst of another winter with minimal snow, snow-lovers turned to February for hope of a turnaround. Will it happen?

69 comments:

  1. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 1, 2025 at 4:13 PM

    Bring it!!!!

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  2. Several inches today in northeast Minnesota. TC left out in the cold…again. Earlier today I felt somewhat confident the Sunday/Monday system would favor the TC. Alas, current guidance is calling for 4-5 inches for St. Cloud and north. The TC? You guessed it, possibly a whole whopping inch! 14.2…..

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  3. Tim (and fellow snow lovers) I feel your pain. The metro struck out today, looks likely to strikeout again tomorrow night and Monday, and the Wednesday system right now looks very unpromising. Next weekend…possibly…maybe? One would think somewhere along the line it will accidentally snow enough so the metro can pickup a whole inch of snow. Right? Right?

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  4. Welp. Well, I asked and received a new thread for us all with the hopes for more than the dusting we got today. I hate computer models that dangle decent snow and then poof, it's gone. Let's see how much snow we can get this month. C'mon Mother Nature/Old Man Winter.......

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  5. Looks like these counties are the winners for a heavier snow band tonight: "Kanabec; Isanti; Chisago; Polk; Barron; Rusk."

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  6. That’s no surprise. Whenever it does actually snow, it’s always north of the metro. As Schnee Meister said above, maybe, possibly, remotely conceivable an inch of snow could fall on the metro next weekend? I won’t hold my breath.

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  7. What ever happened to that perfect snowstorm setup for the TC Novak was going on about a week or so ago?

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    1. He's going for likes and shares, likes and shares. Get people talking to get that income a comin'!

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  8. Didn’t the national weather service predict above average snowfall for the season? LOL What a joke! What a colossal failure! Sorry to be negative. I’m just overly frustrated like the rest of you! Bring on Spring so we can rid ourselves of yet another major fail of a Minnesota winter.

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  9. Sorry, I see I posted as anonymous. That’s my post at 1:17PM.

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  10. Winter Weather Advisory just posted for Hennepin County and north for 2-4 inches tonight/tomorrow. However, it appears the focus for 2-4 inches is mostly on northern Hennepin County. We will just have to see how it plays out. Shift a little farther south, please!

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  11. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 2, 2025 at 3:00 PM

    Getting exciting around here!! Several rounds of snows and possible larger snowstorms on the horizon. All of the ingredients are coming together for a snow globe February!

    Doing the Snowy Snow Globe Dance!!!!

    Bring it!!

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  12. I am cautiously optimistic for an inch of snow tonight for the metro. Latest guidance is calling for essentially nothing burgers for Wednesday (no surprise) and now next weekend (a bit of a surprise). Realistically, the metro could very easily be nothing but continued bare ground this time next week. Maybe something will go awry and it will actually snow in the metro. One can only hope!

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  13. I was too optimistic about last night’s snow. I am in the Crystal area and we did not get 1 inch of snow. We got about half an inch of snow. Beggars can’t be choosers I guess.

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  14. I am not a big Paul Douglas fan, but he does have a saying that I believe rings true. That saying is, “when in a drought don’t predict rain (or snow.)”

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    1. Agreed Schnee Meister. And yeah, Tim, I was, too, optimistic and just hoping so much for way more. But hey, it's only Feb 3rd, so let's see what we can add for snow on the blog page this month.

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  15. Update on our two pending snow systems this week (Wednesday and Saturday). According to the National Weather Service discussion this morning the metro should see a little bit of snow from each system, but at least right now it appears the big winners will once again be around St. Cloud north and east. And the beat goes on.

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    1. Thanks for the update, Tim. I always (foolishly) look at the 'timeanddate' app and it shows big snowfall amounts that always vaporize...... but one can have hope. Lucky north/east of us........ thanks again. Keep us posted.

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  16. NWS turned much more optimistic this afternoon regarding Saturday’s system. They are now saying guidance shows at least 4 inches area-wide. Will that trend hold? It’s still several days away.

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  17. TimeandDate keeps upping the Saturday total; now it's at 9" for MSP. They usually back down and totals like that vaporize....... it's exciting to contemplate, though. If it happens, it will be the first time their wild prediction for a snow total occurs this season. "Stay tuned."

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  18. Everyone/everything is so very quiet about Saturday. I'm waiting for the discussion, for Mr. Novak, for the NWS, for somebody to say something about the 'potential' for a very large amount of snow around here. I know it's just Wednesday, but still.............

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  19. This afternoon the NWS said it’s looking likely the entire area will receive at least 4.5 inches, and some areas might receive 6-9 inches. NWS is holding off on issuing any watches/warnings for now, but expects them to be posted within the next 24 hours so long as there are no major shifts in the storm’s expected path. They also mentioned the possibility the system might travel too fast to really dumped a lot of snow. Stay tuned!

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  20. My area forecast from NWS in the Minnetonka area is now showing 5-11 inches Friday night through Saturday.

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  21. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 5, 2025 at 6:29 PM

    That’s right!!! Bring it!!

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  22. Oh, yeah, now we're cookin'..... Novak is posting his maps, people are asking questions, and look at you all here on the thread. Bring it, dance, yes to it all. I'm hoping we get more snow off and on the whole week/on Valentine's weekend, too. It is about time, right? Schnee Meister, thanks for the info about 'travel too fast' for this Saturday's event, even though that will be sad..... stay tuned indeed. Thanks for the updates, snow lovers.

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  23. Winter Storm Watch for the metro for Saturday. I want the whole 11 inches, please. Dance, PWL.

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  24. I don't know if this is the NWS just trying to cover its backside or what. I also noticed that after 7 or so consecutive runs reflecting 8-9 inches of snow the latest Euro run shows 4 inches and the GFS has followed suit.

    NWS: "There is one trend that will need to be monitored as it could ultimately lead to less snowfall. The 00z ECMWF & EPS trended much drier with the mean QPF forecast across the area. If this trend continues - forecast amounts will decrease too. The trend seems to be a slightly weaker shortwave trough that`s a bit quicker than previous runs of the ECMWF/EPS. This system will be a quick mover so the potential for an overachiever will be limited."

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    1. Exactly. I am seeing the lessening of amounts in some forecasts. It's concerning, not that any of us can control the weather. I was so excited for a day. Bummer................. Thanks for the details/model information. If you post again that we are only getting 3" that will be just.......... no words!!

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  25. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 6, 2025 at 7:55 AM

    I noticed this in some of the latest model runs. Several are showing less snow. Remember, the euro doesn’t adjust for ratios. And this will be a high ratio storm. Also, Novak indicated that we won’t really know amounts (at least have a better handle on it) until the storm comes ashore later today/tonight. Let’s give it a few more runs. We do know that it will be a faster moving storm so it will have to produce quickly and heavily. Dancing, dancing, dancing. Doing the “quick producer” dance. Bring it!!!!

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    1. Thanks for the additional info, PWL, and thanks for giving me a good chortle as I imagine you doing the 'quick producer' dance. Keep us posted.

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  26. I just noticed my area forecast from the NWS in the Minnetonka area is now showing Friday night (2-4 inches) and Saturday (4-8 inches).

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  27. Finally something to talk about. I think we should all join PWL and have a bona fide dance party.

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    1. Hope you're right, SWMplsGirl cuz some models keep making the totals go down.... now I'm worried and wondering if we will get more than an inch or two. I know PWL and others do a good discussion to explain how snow is up in the air.... but I'm always the pessimist. I sure miss the days of snowstorms. And six inches is no storm..... but I'd take it at this rate. Prayers UP to the snow gods/goddesses.

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  28. Oh, I forgot to say to all my snow-loving friends on here that last night I was musing that waiting for a big snowstorm these days is like waiting for the Vikes to actually win a Super Bowl.

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  29. Latest model runs are out. I'm starting to get a bad feeling. All models now showing only 2-3 inches for the metro area.

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  30. This is not a good trend. The last two model runs have called for 4 inches and then 2-3 inches. The numbers are going in the wrong direction! Like Tim, I'm starting to get an uneasy feeling. Here's hoping it's just a hiccup in the models. The past couple of days the models have called for 6+ inches run after run.

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  31. Alter your travel plans.

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    1. Dear Anonymous: Are you being serious or tongue-in-cheek?

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    2. It looked like the winter weather severity/impact index was peaked right over the metro, but maybe not so much anymore.

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    3. Okay, then no need to alter travel plans? Thank you.

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  32. Novak has just 3-6" on his latest weekend graphic for the metro. :+(

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  33. When looking at snowstorms, it's always important to look at where the moisture is originating from. This storm doesn't have a gulf component to it. All the moisture is coming from the Pacific. Because of this the moisture has to make it over the mountains. Currently models are showing 15" to 20 " of upsloping snow over the rockies. Wouldn't be surprised to see this being an advisory type of event.

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  34. After reviewing models, weather data and reading the NWS forecast discussion this afternoon, I absolutely agree with Randyinchamplin that this will be an advisory, not warning, event at best. The NWS went as far in its discussion this afternoon to not only say snowfall totals are falling, but to be prepared for them to continue to be lowered. I hope that one of these days before this "winter" is over my front lawn will actually get completely covered with snow. I am tired of looking at brown grass.

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    1. Thanks for the update, Schnee Meister. So disappointing.

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  35. Oh boy, the situation has abruptly changed course and is no longer going in the right direction.

    As Schnee Meister posted above: “When in a drought don’t predict rain (or snow.)” Paul Douglas

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  36. Weird. Still seeing 6-10 for the east metro

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  37. Replies
    1. Anonymous at 5:27 your an a$$, you know exactly what your doing with that sarcastic 14.2 comment.

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  38. WWA for the metro; in my area it's 2-4 tonight and 1-3 tomorrow. If it were the high end, not shabby. But if on the low end, total bummer. "And so it goes." Aside from trolling, thanks for everyone else's info/ analyses/updates. Have a good Friday.

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  39. The last 4 runs of the GFS and the last 2 runs of the Euro are now calling for only 2 inches for the metro. What a downfall from all the predictions, including model run after model run, from earlier this week. Just goes to show models are nothing but eye candy until the very last minute before the system arrives. Will my front lawn grass ever get completely covered with snow?!

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  40. To clarify, the models I mentioned above are working on a 10:1 SLR. The NWS is calling for a 15:1 to 18:1 SLR, which means the two inches could...wait for it...be closer to 3 inches!! It's time to call out the National Guard! (sarcasm added).

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  41. I think now even 2 inches is in question.

    Novak just posted this: "It is going to be painful to watch the radar light-up over the next 18 hours yet not have any of the snow reach the ground due to virga = dry air near the surface. This will be most prominent from the core Twin Cities metro on south. Frustrating for snow lovers."

    Schnee Meister, I don't know where you live, but it's certainly quite possible that come Sunday morning the grass on your front lawn will still be visible. How pathetic and sad this is, especially after all the hype!

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  42. I see Novak is on Facebook essentially telling everyone there is just too much dry air for this system to deal with over the Twin Cities and south. It sounds like many places will be lucky to get an inch. I don't blame Novak. He can't control the weather. He is usually very accurate, but to be fair he along with everyone else has been talking this week about a practically sure thing snowstorm for southern MN. Now it appears the only ones that will get any accumulating snow are the folks up north...again. Disappointment is a way of life, particularly with MN winters. Perhaps in the future weather folks should temper what they say about these storms until a day or so before they are expected to hit. I know someone who had to cancel a large sports tournament for this weekend based on the forecasts. That cost a lot of time and money. Now it will probably be partly sunny instead of 6+ inches of snow.

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    1. Thanks Schnee Meister/Tony for the information. I don't remember two years in a row like this nor storms vaporizing like this so often in the past. It's quite amazing. I feel for all of us who love snow. I'm embarrassed I even asked for a new thread, but for history's sake, this will be interesting to look back on blog-wise in the future. Sometimes I look back to when I first discovered this blog, and there were so many more strands and more snow a lot of the time. We still have the rest of this month and then March (ha and April in 'this' climate) ... so maybe, just maybe something will happen in the near future. Onward. Thanks again for the discussion. I sure hope DOGE doesn't get rid of NOAA. Even if forecasts bust at times, we need somebody to warn us, especially tornadic/severe thunderstorm activity.

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    2. Oh, and Tim/PWL.... everyone else I forgot, thank you folks, too.....

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  43. In this afternoon's discussion the NWS is holding firm for 3-5 inches across the metro area, more to the north. Time will tell.

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  44. I just have to say: Novak is having a blast with this craziness over on Facebook/Meta. He's been putting out some fun posts.

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  45. What a horrible horrible forecast, 3am and still not one flake of snow. Novak should not be praised at all on this one even though he sounded the “dry air alarm” on this yesterday. He has been hyping the snowy return to our area since the calendar turned to February and 8 days in and what has MSP measured a whole inch of snow. C’mon this winter and these forecasts are pretty bad!

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    1. Agreed. A memory came up on my FB last night of 6 years ago and a nice snowfall. "Those were the days." I live near clinics and they are 'cleaning' whatever has fallen in the night, but I bet it's a half inch. I don't even want to look out the window. They clean 'dust' when it falls during winter. The drought continues. Have a good day.

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  46. 5 inches measured in NE metro and still snowing. I am surprised and happy. .

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    1. Jealous! The grandkids and CoCoRaHS reported 3.3 early this morning and it's still pouring. Finally it's pouring snow in SLP. It is so beautiful. Stunning and stunned. Enjoy it!!

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  47. Plymouth Weather LoverFebruary 8, 2025 at 8:50 AM

    Everyone should have relaxed a bit. It wasn’t what it could have been but the lower end of the totals were spot on. And it is still snowing and adding up. The dancing worked. And still snowing. Love it!

    Novak is THE MAN!!!!

    Bring it!!!

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    1. Indeed, it's gorgeous. But we are having a blast on Novak's FB page because this morning there was basically zilch in St Louis Park. I hope the big green blob parked on the radar doesn't move until later today. I wish it. Silly but oh how beautiful it is. It's true Novak is the GOAT for these forecasts, but even he had kind of thrown in the towel early this morning ..... Keep dancing, PWL.

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  48. Snow totals will look good but the timing from different outlets was definitely off. I’ve snow blown twice to make Otha for two vehicles heading off for work and such. Didn’t want to do the whole driveway and it keeps coming down. Light fluffy snow getting packed down so curious to see some official measurements from throughout the storm.

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    1. Thanks for the update and agreed. This blob of heavy snow parked right over us as for me, a surprise. Loving it, though. Gorgeous, huge thick rapidly falling flakes.

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  49. I'd say we're pushing the 5"-6" range in the NW metro. People have have been driving to our area to snowshoe (good snowshoe depth).

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  50. All the exciting action looking to be well south of the area for the next few weeks at least.

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