Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Most Forecasts Expecting Little More Than Coating for Thursday Night


Here’s a recap of forecasts for Thursday night’s possible snow. As much as possible, we’re using forecasts closest to 24 hours before onset as the forecast of record. Several forecasters have told us that 24 hours before snow onset is the time when you can best separate the men from the boys.

That said, for Thursday night’s forecast, there’s really not a lot of separation. As best we could determine, the NWS was the most liberal with snow forecasts (mentioning 3” on the top end of the range) while WCCO and KSTP seemed to poo poo the possible snow the most.

Herewith, the less than staggering snow forecast for the evening of Thursday, November 21, 2013:

WCCO: Coating to an inch (5 p.m. news)

KSTP: Coating to an inch

KMSP: Total accumulations look very light with around an inch in the metro and generally 2 inches or so for southern Minnesota. (Source: website post at 5:04 p.m.)

KARE: Said 1-2”. Showed 2” for MSP on graphic (6 p.m. news)

MPR: Coating to 2” (blog post at 5:01 p.m.)

NWS: 1-3” (Source: weather.gov/55111, zipcode for MSP airport)

Star Tribune: 1” possible (from blog with posting date of 12:17 a.m. on Nov. 20)


AccuWeather: 1.06” (Source: accuweather.com for zipcode 55111)

34 comments:

  1. Only one month until we start heading back towards spring and summer!

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  2. God this weather is boring, downright a yawner, it sure feels like were still in a drought, nothing of any significance for quite some time. Isnt the November average for snowfall 9.3 at MSP? And we would be lucky to scratch out 2 inches by months end. After this so-called dusting tonight there is nothing on the maps for at least ten days except for cold below average temps.Here's to hoping for a pattern change.

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  3. Dr. Novak, Duane, Randyinchamplin, is there any weather drama on the horizon?

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    1. none in the next 10 days IMO, other than cold

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    2. I have NO basis to say this other than that I've seen storms pop up at this time of year and think it's impossible to predict more than 7 days out. I'll say there will be a 2" storm by Dec. 2.

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  4. Cold shot after cold shot seems to be the theme looking out into the foreseeable future. A pretty ridiculous system is showing up way out there on the GFS (first week or so of December). End of the Euro run is showing some development as well but again these are towards the end of the forecast runs so I'm taking those with a grain of salt. They are the first decent things to show up in a while. Other than that, as long as there is ridging up out west and ridging to the east we'll be pretty dry and boring. We'll need a pattern shift to get any respectable moisture into the area. That may just come as we head into December but honestly that remains to be seen.

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  5. Large Nor'Easter will suck up all of the energy over the U.S. for the next 5 to 7 days. Quiet and cold through Turkey day.

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  6. Came across this quote and thought fans of this website might appreciate it:
    “All of us could take a lesson from the weather. It pays no attention to criticism.”
    All I have to say about today’s weather is…bbbrrrrr… ;-)

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  7. Long range models showing a lot of high pressure over Alaska. Probably will mean cold air for us.

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  8. Still madly boring, how can you get excited about cold weather, I know this has been said before but what a waste of cold weather, not much fun to have the cold without the snow. Mark my words when a storm finally decides to roll thru our area it will be a slop storm/rain-snow line type of storm when the cold air will be marginal at best.

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  9. Well, it looks like the Western US will be seeing low heights/trough setting up, which the guys at NWS point out would set us up for some Colorado Lows over the next month.

    GOING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER...THE GFS/ECMWF/FIM ALL SHOW A PATTERN SHIFT OCCURRING...WITH TROUGHING OF ONE FLAVOR OR ANOTHER SETTING UP ACROSS THE ROCKIES. OF COURSE THIS FAR OUT...THERE ARE PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES...BUT ALL AGREE ON A LARGE SCALE TROUGH TRYING TO DIG ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WOULD HAVE A COUPLE OF POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS. ONE...A MILDER/MORE MOIST AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...BUT THIS IS ALSO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR US...WITH THINGS LIKE COLORADO LOWS AND PANHANDLE HOOKERS LIKING TO EMANATE FROM WRN TROUGHS...SO IT WILL GIVE US SOMETHING TO LOOK AT WAS WE CARB LOAD ON THANKSGIVING MEALS LATER THIS WEEK.

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  10. NWS sticking with that thinking with their afternoon discussion, and rightfully so. Models have been pretty consistent with developing a more active pattern with troughing in the west. Anyone who has seen Joe Bastardi's videos in the past will know that the set up that is shaping up will probably be a pretty cold one too. Big ridge in Alaska and Greenland is pretty much going to force the cold air to the south. This shift is still about a week to a week and a half away so it's certainly possible that this look will just go away but given all the models are showing this shift I would say it's pretty unlikely that it will go away. We'll have to watch as this pattern shift takes place because it could very well spin up a whopper of a storm that would pretty much throw us into full winter mode until next April or May.

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  11. Plymouth Weather LoverNovember 25, 2013 at 9:45 PM

    All my eyes are on a big one for early next week. After a big turkey dinner, I can dance with the best of them. If it is going to be this cold, then bring it!!!

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  12. Right on que like I mentioned above, the National Weather Service has rain mixed with snow chances for early next week with the cold enough for all snow cold gone and replaced with marginally cold air in the 35-38° range, can you say slop! Hope you like dancing in slop Plymouth Weather Lover.

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  13. Can someone like Randy, Duane, Novak help me understand what I am looking at here? It's a retweet from Randy Hill
    https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/405447710909542400/photo/1

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  14. I'm going to take a stab at this. This is something that I was mentioning before in regards to the cold pattern that may unfold for us in the next week and a half. This map is showing pretty much the ridges and troughs across this side of the globe. There is a huge ridge that builds up into Alaska with another one built up over Greenland. From what I've learned from other professional forecasters when you get ridging that connects up especially from Alaska over towards Greenland, the arctic air that is built up across northern Canada is forced south into the United States. That is what that particular map is showing. Big ridges over the top, with a major chunk of arctic air being forced into our area. In fact these kinds of arctic outbreaks are more typical in mid January than they are in early December. Looking at temps on the Euro during that time frame does show sub zero highs for parts of Minnesota, with lows well in the double digits below zero. One key thing that we will have to watch for, if this type of cold air in fact does come south, is the amount of snow cover we have. If we are bare ground it will still be cold, but not as bad as if we had a fresh snow pack. If we do indeed get a big snowstorm in the midst of this arctic air, then it will pretty much feel miserable outside. Nothing we aren't all used to living here, it's just arriving earlier than usual. So, we'll keep an eye on the general pattern to see if this continues to show up, or if it just vanishes and we end up in a milder pattern. Wait...and see. :)

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  15. Just my amateur thoughts here. With the strong -EPO that we are currently in, coupled with a developing -PNA for the 1st week of Dec, I believe the baroclinic zone may set south and east of us, yes we could do well with few clipper system as snow fall ratios could be higher. But as troughs dig into the southwest we may get to much cold air up here for a whopper of a winter storm. Therefore my current thinking for the 1st half of December with any blockbuster winter storms, the effected areas will near a line from St Louis to Des Moines to Milwaukee and points south and east from there. IMO the far Northwest areas of this sub forum will not be favored, however the rest of the area may see a substantial winter event.

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    1. This is what I posted over at the AmericanWX site

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  16. To go along with what Duane said, try and visualize the winds, lets start with the Arctic Circle where we currently see a strong polar vortex creating the strong +AO that we are seeing, the winds around the polar vortex are counterclockwise. Now we are also seeing a strong ridge over the the Gulf of Alaska creating the strong -EPO and it has winds howling clockwise,the zone in between these features create a strong southward wind field that should dump cold air into the lower 48. Now lets add to that the strong ridge over Greenland and its clockwise winds, and you begin to visualize the strong winds that will be funneling into the northern plains and upper Mississippi Valley. That's why I think it could get bitterly cold up here and the storm track should stay to our south as we have way to much dry funneling in.

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  17. Thanks Randy and Duane.

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    1. Translation to Randy's and Duane's comments, continued cold dry boring weather, anyone like to start the brown Christmas chatter?

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  18. Some validation to jon's comment yesterday about wasting cold air and along comes moisture and the cold is gone for all snow, this from the National Weather Service this morning in regards to next week:
    THE LONG TERM FOCUS IN THE COMING DAYS WILL BE A STORM SYSTEM IN THE PLAINSEAFLY NEXT WEEK AND WHAT COULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF NEST WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS...A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BRING MERIDIONAL FLOW AND WOULD FAVOR AZTORM TRACK TO THE WEST OF MINNESOTA. THUS...RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATION LOW.

    Now thats an interesting development, a temperature roller coaster continues with December RAIN.

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  19. Concerning my post above about the storm track going south of us. For those of us that are model hungers (myself included). The 11/27/12z run of the GFS along with the 11/28/0z of the GFS shows the storm track going south of us around Dec 7th. The Global Gem from the 11/28/0z seems to agree and that is a change as the 11/27/12z run that had it further north affecting us. The Euro was also further north with it's 27/12z run. My best guess is that there will be a major winter storm around the 7th of December, and it may be to our south. Going with the consistent GFS Model at this time and saying that any major winter storm will stay south of us, confidence level is a 6 out of 10 until the Euro comes on board.

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  20. This is the reason I come to this forum....there is always varying opinions and arguments for and against snow but the way I look at it were talking about the possibility of snow, which is always good....case in point Dahl says yesterday in his blog that heavier snow will favor northern MN and Paul Douglas in his blog is following the Euro and is starting the "significant" talk by mentioning the potential for heavy snow from Denver to Omaha to the Twin Cities and then we have Randyinchamplin leaning towards snow sails south of town.....as I always say time will tell, but Randy I do I have a question for you in the past you mocked the GFS(saying it was good for speculation) but now your believing it and not giving any credence to the Euro(which most people believe is the superior model) why is that?
    Also with the holiday today I like to wish everyone a very Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours and say I am very thankful for this blog, I love visiting this site and reading the posts and comments and for that Bill thank you for all you do and also thankful for the weather wisdom and knowledge from our in house met Dr. Novak and also the knowledge of Randy and Duane, I always look forward to reading your comments.

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  21. Plymouth Weather LoverNovember 28, 2013 at 9:45 AM

    This is fun. Any talk of a major winter storm close to home is awesome. And I love the many posts from the people who are regular visitors here. I couldn't agree with you more, bigdaddy, regarding your Thanksgiving comments. I thoroughly enjoy this site and visit it multiple times a day during the winter season, especially. For those who take the time to analyze charts, maps, trends, etc,--Thanks!! Bill, thanks for taking the time to manage and run this site. I absolutely love it. Now......Bring it!! Happy Thanksgiving!

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  22. Paul Douglas speaks of 3 separate snow events for us next week.....Monday into Tuesday.......late Wednesday/Thursday......Friday/early Saturday......to steal your words PWL.....bring it 3 times!

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  23. IN FACT...THE 00Z EC HAS 2M TEMPS IN THE -20S FOR HIGHS AND -30S
    TO AROUND -40 FOR LOWS OVER PORTIONS OF ND AND MT NEXT WEEKEND.
    THAT KIND OF COLD WOULD RIVAL THE FEB 1996 COLD AIR OUTBREAK UP
    THERE.

    Glad I'm not in Minot...

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  24. Did anyone else notice that accuweather extended their forecasts out to 45 days?

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    1. Yes @bemaki have seen the 45 day forecast....its nothing new though, they have been doing it at least 6 months to a year now, obviously not accurate though it changes daily and not just small changes....like six inches of snow to mothing or a ten to twenty degree temperature change,its unreliable I just look at it for fun!

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    2. Well, I basically boycotted the site after they went 25- decided to go back to it today- and, well, I am boycotting it again- I just think it is ridiculous.

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  25. PD's forecast is confusing. He says three chances for snow, but one of his graphics shows ZERO snow for the Twin Cities 8 days out. Weird.

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  26. Average November snowfall in the Twin Cities is 9.3 inches. We will end up with the current 1.1 this November. I hope this isn't a harbinger of things to come.

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    1. kudos- I would hate for a repeat of 2011-2012

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  27. I hope everyone had a good thanksgiving. @ bigdaddy I saw your post last night, but like you I work retail and could not answer until now. Keep in mind I wasn't throwing the Euro under the bus, my confidence level being 6 out of 10 was just slightly higher than average due to the respect that I have for the Euro. Let me digress just a bit, there was always a good chance of a slop storm on Wed, but at the time some of the models were showing a large winter storm here from Thursday night into Friday, including the Euro.

    The reason I didn't like that solution is the strong -EPO pattern we are in because of the NW flow. When that happens we normally see colder temps overall, in other words when cold air comes its normally colder, and with warm air trying to be pushed up from the south it really has to work to overcome the cold, notice the last week or so when we have had strong southerly winds we have really struggled to get above 40°.

    As the slop storm was trying pull away, the Euro was showing a very strong surface ridge dropping SE out of Canada with 1032mb high over Montana into the Dakotas and bleeding into MN. As the surface low started to kick out of the lee side of the Rockies it absolutely pancaked that surface low leading into Friday and actually retrograded it back to the NW, that didn't seem real to me, given how strong the -EPO is.

    Having said all that it's a long ways off and things could really change when this system gets on shore and is better sampled. One thing of note, the Global Gem has been trying phase these systems on Wednesday with a passing low over Northern IA. If that should verify most of Wednesday system could be snow and lots of it...Confidence on that happening is 2 out of 10.
    .

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