Thursday, June 26, 2014

More Rain and Severe Storms This Weekend?

The National Weather Service discussion from Wednesday evening suggests an "interesting" weekend weatherwise as more rain and potential severe weather is in the forecast.

The primary concern in the longer term continues to be the potential for shra/tsra and locally heavy rainfall from late Thursday night through Sunday as warmth/moisture surge back into the region. In addition to potentially heavy rainfall... Ingredients also look like they will fall into place for some possibility of severe weather Saturday and perhaps more-so on Sunday across the area.

As always, time will tell.

51 comments:

  1. NovakWeatherJune 25, 2014 at 6:37 PM
    I'm very concerned that a widespread severe weather outbreak will occur over much of MN this weekend, esp. Sunday. The Jet is unusually strong for this time of the year & it is slamming into the Upper Midwest as winds near the surface are coming straight from the Gulf of Mexico. This is a classic recipe for severe storms as dry air off the Rockies slams into moist air from the Gulf.

    randyinchamplinJune 25, 2014 at 9:52 PM
    I agree with NovakWeather about this weekend (see my post in this thread dated 6/20), but there are still many things undecided at this time. For instance will the cap break Friday or Saturday afternoon, if it does all bets are off. The cap that I'm referring to will be found around 700mb as temps at that level could be between 13-15° C, that's warm enough that any updrafts that start to develop will have a hard time breaking through that layer, but it only takes one updraft to break it, than others will follow suit.

    #2 There will be plenty of convection occurring around the area, say within 200 miles of any one point, will convective debris (ie blow off from those storms) keep us from seeing strong sunshine during the peak heating hours of 12 and 4pm?, if so the area will fail to see the destabilization that most models are showing.

    Now my attention turns to Sunday evening, and the 06/25 12z model suite is fairly consistent with a cold front slamming into very unstable air over the MN/Dakota's border area during the late afternoon time frame. If that should happen and the models are right in their depiction of things, a severe wind threat is highly possible over much of Central and SE MN. With the soil as saturated as it is, plus with more heavy rain possible before Sunday night, I cringe at the amount of trees that could come down on homes and power lines.

    One more thing about Friday and Saturday night, while we may be caped during the afternoon and early evening, a nocturnal lower level jet may develop during the overnight hours providing enough lift for heavy to severe storms during the overnight hours.

    Model output will change considerably during the next two days, and this event will be a moving target, but right now if things hold, Sunday evening looks nasty.

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  2. Thanks for the new thread, Bill! I wish we could build a pipeline and send some of this water out your way. I know California is in desperate need of it.

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  3. Sunday has all the makings of a Moderate or High risk assessment over so. MN from the SPC along with a PDS for parts of the region.

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  4. I wish one of our esteemed MN meteorologists would define "southern Minnesota." Paul Huttner et al talk about "southern Minnesota" all the time with not even a hint of geographic boundaries. Is the Twin Cities included in southern Minnesota? We're certainly in the southern third on the map anyway.

    But I'm guessing that terms like that are used to describe areas outside of the Twin Cities.

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    1. I've always thought Southern Minnesota didn't typically constitute the Twin Cities.

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    2. If you follow the NWS they always state that the Twin Cities is in East Central Minnesota........but yeah looking at a map the TC seem to lie on the southern edge of central MN and the northern edge of southern MN.

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  5. Everything is drying up rapidly. I have a gut feeling that we may get some rain, but not nearly what is being hyped.

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  6. New video hot off the press! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3Bes4dZ75Y

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  7. Good video. I enjoy Tom's thoughtful, detailed, reasoned explanations :)

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  8. One question though: I was not able to find the supercell composite on DuPage's website, only on the SPC's site.

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  9. The forecasts for this week, precip-wise, have been pretty terrible. It has not rained a drop where I live in the Twin Cities. Skies are clearing now.

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  10. Concerning Sunday. The NAM forecast model is very scary from sw MN to the metro during the late afternoon into the early evening hours. However this model has been showing a strong northern bias for the last 6 months or so. Yesterdays run of the same model showed the strongest potential for tornadoes 100 miles nw of MSP, I expected a big southern shift and that happened today with it's 18z run as that area is now over the metro.

    Now if you look back at the previous thread, I mentioned some things that could go wrong with respect to severe weather. I had it in the back of my mind but did not mention it, and that was the possibility that the cyclone over southern Canada could drop a bit south from what most of the models were showing, especially from 850 mb on up.

    The 06/27 12z (7am) run of the Euro showed that quite nicely, and the 18z (1pm) run of the GFS now seems to agree. If those two models are correct, and I think they are, winds from 850mb (approx. 5000 feet and up) and higher will be blowing quite strongly from the west. The net result is that will advect drier conditions into the mid levels of the atmosphere over MSP, and cut down on the severe chances.

    Just south of MSP from say a line from Red Wing to Faribault to New Ulm could be under the gun.

    Confidence level in this forecast for Sunday is 6 out of ten, I will give the Nam a 40% chance of verifying

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  11. Randy, why is it 'wrong'? You mention how things could go wrong, don't we want things to go 'wrong', why would we want severe weather, I pray everything goes wrong and we don't have loss of life and property. I could be WRONG but it sounds to me that you are looking forward to severe weather to happen, why else would you mention that things could go wrong.

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    1. Ditto!!! Whomever wishes things don't go wrong with severe weather is just plain wrong. I lived thru a tornado and hailstorms in the deep south, trust me you don't want any part of the misery and destruction it can bring, not knowing where love ones are for hours after seeing where there house once stood is the worst feeling ever!!

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  12. The NAM is an absolute joke beyond 24 hours, whether your predicting snowfall in the winter or severe storms in the spring/summer. The only forecasters interested in using it beyond that timeframe are the ones interested in generating hype.

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  13. The worst (best?) of it is going to go well south of Minnesota. As usual.

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    1. Don't sound soooo bummed, tell me why you want severe weather to hit your neighborhood, u want your car to be dented with pings so you can collect insurance money, is that it?

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  14. Severe thunderstorm watch posted Twin Cities metro area and a many more locales! Radar shows a growing line of storms setting up west of the metro......

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  15. My concern continues to grow for communities along the I-90 corridor, esp. from Albert Lea on east, Sunday & Monday. It looks like a strong boundary will be near or north of this area & it likely becomes stationary for a 24 hour period. If you are a storm chaser, this is where you want to set-up shop.

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  16. randyinchamplin was right (again). This whole thing is moving south. MN is barely in slight risk now.

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  17. You rock Randy!

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  18. A few days behind here, but I'm glad everything went 'WRONG' with regards to severe weather, I'm sorry to all of you who wanted hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes and didn't get to see it!

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    1. Ray: Thank you for your feedback, it is appreciated, as I suspect that your comments are in response to my previous post. At the time that I posted that, most of southern MN was under a 30% risk of seeing severe weather within 25 miles of any point as painted by the Storm Prediction Center.

      Now I don't wish for severe weather to strike anyone's back yard, because it causes millions if not billions of dollar's to our economy each year, and we would be better off with out it. But yet the threat is real and it needs to be dealt with.

      The reasoning behind my post was to provide a objective look at things. Soon after I posted here that MSP was unlikely to see severe weather, I posted the same at AmericanWX, a ;national weather board. At least one well respected member commented that it was a gusty call, but it proved to be right.

      If it came across as being disappointed that we would not see severe in the metro, I apologize, as that was certainly not my intent.

      My post

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  19. Could be first 90°+ tommorrow......boo! I'm hoping it doesnt get there, secretly I'm wishing to add 2014 as a non-90° year.

    Other trends I was following:
    June 2014 was on pace to be the all-time wettest June ever......the forecast looked promising to achieve that the last ten days of June.....but there was many dry days then rainy days those last ten, so June 2014 ended up second all-time.....missing the record by a mere 0.31".
    Also June ended up +0.6° above average for the month which officially ends our consecutive streak of below average monthly temperatures at 7 months(according to NWS....before you chime in Disco :) ).
    I like to follow weather to break records and monitor trends.....so the only one really left to follow is the 90° one.
    Hope you all had great and safe 4th of July......are the dog days of summer coming??

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  20. @bigdaddy, 90 was achieved yesterday, barely, but 2014 will not be a non-90° year. But looking out 10-14 days we will not even sniff another 90° day. Looks to me everyone should be saving on their A/C bills this year.

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    1. @Anoymous I saw that, another trend ended!!.....the 90 wasnt that bad because the heat index wasnt that bad on that day.
      Serious cold front coming thru during next week.....highs stuck in the 60's?????.....potential for temps to be 15-20° below average at every given point next seek.....awesome sleeping weather....free air-conditioning for everyone!!!!

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  21. Am I the only one who cares about the July chill.....only 4 of the first 11 days of July has seen average to above average temps, currently we are running -2.8° below average for July, and its about to get significantly colder(yes I'm using the word colder, because if your running 20° below average in July thats cold)....."highs" only in the 60's Mon/Tues and 70's the rest of the work week.
    I know its not headline grabbing news like severe weather with tornadoes and hail damage but this is some significant cold air for July.....records will be threatened, like daily max-min high. and coldest All-Star game ever.

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  22. Leave it to Minnesota to have the coldest all-star game. Good grief.

    The cool July weather doesn't bother me as long as we get our El Nino this winter.

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  23. bigdaddy/disco....This has been a amazing start to summer for me. I live in a area that is mostly sand, and my soil can easily absorb 2" of rainfall a week. Without temps being overly warm I think I have literately spent a dime on watering by yard, what a savings on the bank account.

    About El Nino. I'm not sure that is going to happen. While I haven't taken the time to explore it myself, there are some out there that question if it will come to fruition. There is some evidence that the waters in the favored region where it may develop have started to cool below the surface, say about 100 meters down as compared to April and May when some were talking about a super El Nino.

    Time will tell, but keep an eye on the above normal sea surface temps in the Gulf of Alaska, that was our culprit last winter and so far this year. While we have seen severe flooding this severe season, we have been somewhat quiet with severe storms, as the zonal or NW flow have kept us out of the +90 temps, while at the same time Iowa has been rocked.

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    1. Randy, that's been the problem with the cooler weather this year. It's been very boring on the severe front. The heart of the severe season (June) is over.

      Although recall last summer. The hottest streak came in late August with that ring of fire. That was fun.

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  24. This weather we are experiencing pretty much this entire July thus far is absolutely near perfect.....in my opinion of course. Below normal cool temps all but three days thus far, enough rain to keep the garden going and no need to honker in a shelter or crawl space due to severe weather. and no 90 in July yet.........I know its about to all change with heat returning.

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  25. NWS describes tommorrow as a "heat wave"........they have a heat warning for all of ten hours, hardly constitutes a heat wave, yes it will be a hot and humid day that warrants a heat warning but its only one day of heat, not a heat wave!
    After a one day stay in the tropical soup........it appears we have many more cooler then normal 70's in our near future.....a year without a summer continues into late July........one more month and fall-like weather comes into the picture!

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  26. This is what I posted over on the AMwx site. " Concerning Monday 7/21/2014. Looking at the forecast sounding for tomorrow night for MSP I see a nice temp inversion from H85 to H8 and temps at 700mb at or very close to 14° C. This could be hard to break. Best guess at this time is that the severe threat should be north of the TC metro and affect the area north of a line from Montevideo to St Cloud to far Nw WI. I'm getting somewhat concerned about the BWCA area. Of course this is based off the NAM 0z/07/21 run."

    There could be a chance say around 3am that the north metro could see a severe storm. This is a very fluid system, and we all need to be aware of our surroundings come Monday evening. Confidence level of severe storms north of the metro is high. Confidence of severe storms not affecting the metro is low. If that cap breaks anywhere near the metro, all bets are off.

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  27. My bet's not off. I'm betting this fizzles for the Twin Cities. This summer has been so damn boring. On the other hand, i don't really want a storm at 3am anyway :)

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  28. Here's what I bet/hope happens for all those on here that keep saying this summer has been boring for them weather-wise. A EF-2 tornado will take a path over your homes, what happens then only God knows. Whats that old saying, "becareful what you wish for", if your home is gone or an love one passes god forbid or your car is severely totaled or even if your out of power for a week I bet you wouldnt think its boring anymore and wished severe stayed out of your path.

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  29. To everybody who thinks anyone wants destruction as a result of severe weather, please go find the kiddie pool. I think this issue has been repeatedly addressed here. This is a weather blog, FYI.

    Also, wishing for any weather doesn't do anything. So get off that.

    Besides, it's only a few short months until you can resume fapping to the thought of winter storms advisories.

    Either way, MSP does not appear to be under the gun tonight. Metro Skywarn already told everyone they can go bed early.

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    1. So tell me Mr. Anonymous and Bill, what is the opposite of boring? When you have people on here complaining that our weather has been boring this summer or complain that the storms will miss MSP north or south how exactly would you interpret that to mean. The opposite of boring weather in spring and summer is to have wild weather with anything from various sizes of hail to down trees and power outages to severe long tracking tornadoes with watches and warnings scrolling on the bottom of your TV screen, so the next time theres a possibility of severe weather I hope you dont forget to bring in your kidde pool because it just might end up in your neighbor's yard or in your twisted mind that would seem cool, not boring!
      Furthermore I know this is a weather blog where people like me hope that the weather stays 'boring', one less thing to worry about in life.

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  30. Excellent image from the Storm Prediction Center at sunset last night. Notice that it is much brighter out to our NW and somewhat darker over the MSP, as its getting dark over us. Notice the towers that are showing up over Eastern MN, now because of the shadows they look about 2-3 times higher than what they actually were. Nonetheless storms were trying to fire over us, but the updraft's were hitting the cap and couldn't break through. Nice example of what happens in a capped environment

    https://www.facebook.com/NWSSPC/photos/a.252124794804491.85779.248179758532328/915106011839696/?type=1&theater

    .

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  31. I'm a weather lover, which means that I want to see what nature can do. That of course means extreme weather of any kind. It's endlessly fascinating. Do I want to see homes and property damaged or destroyed, or people injured and killed? No. But when the conditions are right for dynamic weather, I'd prefer that it actually happen. Busts are a major disappointment, especially when it comes to the chance to witness something impressive. I honestly don't understand someone having an interest in weather that doesn't want to see what can happen. I mean, how boring would it be if we got exactly as much rain as we needed each and every day? Or if we got our regular seasonal snowfall in 2-3" increments? I don't wish disaster on anyone, but I do want to see what this fluid atmosphere of ours is capable of.

    Take this coming week for instance. It looks like the weather will be beautiful all week, with nothing to break up the 'sameness'. Sameness is only interesting for its 'sameness', but for nothing else. It's boring. Changeable weather gives weather lovers and an almost endless variety of things to discuss and research and amaze.

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  32. The past month has been like living in San Diego. Without the ocean, the palm trees, the great sushi.

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    1. Also don't forget the high home prices, the homeless and the bankrupt state

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    2. California has a budget surplus right now.

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  33. July.....-2.3° below average.....awesome......enough said!!!!!

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  34. Forecasts have been really weak lately. We're not getting nearly the amount of rain that is being predicted. Looks as though we're back in flash drought.

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    1. For the most part that statement seems to be questionable at the least.

      I don't know where you live, but many parts of the metro have seen beneficial rains the last three days. Up here in Champlin I only saw about 1/3 of inch. Way to little for me for I live in a area with heavy sand content.

      Normally with a flash drought set up you would see extreme heat with little chance of rain. That simply isn't in the cards this year, the latest 10 day run of the Euro is hard pressed to show any high temps above 85°. While the models were showing heavy rains Tuesday night into Wednesday for the metro area a few days ago, I wasn't completely buying into it, as a few times early we were under the gun for severe weather and the treat dropped south.

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  35. Randy, I disagree. I'm in the NE metro area, and we've seen no serious rain in several weeks. A drought does not imply heat, only lack of precipitation.

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    1. I get that, but higher temps will generally cause quicker evaporation, having said that, looking at what the models are forecasting I don't see much rain chances until Aug 14th or so. It will be interesting to see what the US drought outlook shows when it comes out tomorrow 08/07, I don't think there will be a large area of dry conditions posted, but maybe one to two pockets.

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  36. Thinking of winter?.......I am, snowblowers are already on display and for sale!......snow season is a mere 50 days away(9/26/42 our earliest snowfall).

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  37. Oh well I tried but I guess no ones thinking of winter yet. @Bill good graphic up right now on the NWS Twin Cities home page depicting our lack of severe weather compared to the last four years.....maybe a good piece for a new thread since we have been fairly dry for awhile and quiet on the severe weather front. Hope Cali is treating you well......miss us any??

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    1. @Big Daddy, your wish is my command. New thread posted.

      I'm back in Minnesota this week enjoying the rather boring weather. A little disappointed given that California doesn't have exciting weather, but still nice to catch the balmy breezes (not this humid in CA).

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