Monday, March 2, 2015

Is Early March Snow Winter's Last Hurrah?

Some meteorologists were talking as if Tuesday could be the end of winter as we know it. We shall see. In the meantime, as of late this Monday evening, here's what we found for Tuesday forecast snow totals on Tuesday from a range of outlets.

WCCO: 2-5"
KSTP: 3-5
KMSP: 3-5"
KARE: 2-4:
NWS: 2-3"
Star Tribune: 2-4"
MPR: Showed models depicting 2-4"
Novak Weather: 3"

140 comments:

  1. Not looking good for all of the above.

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  2. Still not looking good for all of the above. Kare and TWC are saying possibly an inch will fall in the metro. Looking like a metro Bust!!

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  3. The new improved GFS model once again shows that it debuted way too early and without enough testing. I hope it is better at forecasting spring and summer storms, because it hasn't been worth a damn all winter.

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  4. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 3, 2015 at 8:12 AM

    Bring it! It is snowing hard in Plymouth! Bring it!

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  5. Bring it! Spring is coming, bring it!

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  6. Bring It! Thaw in 72 hours! Bring It!

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  7. Aw, cute. It's trying to snow outside! There's even almost an inch on the ground! I bet if it tries harder, it can even cover my grass.

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  8. There was half an inch on my patio table (Farmington). The sun poked out and almost instantly melted it all! It's time to wave the white flag. The winter that really never was is over. Bring on real spring weather. Btw, I don't consider 48-50 degrees to be fun spring weather. I'm looking for 70!

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  9. Many large bare spots on the ground here in Apple Valley. It is very lightly snowing. It's been a BUST down here.

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  10. Agree with @Anonymous 10.25am:
    time to give up on a winter that ended before even really starting.
    Did we even get a single Winter Storm Warning all winter?
    And absolutely right: if we are not going to get a nice snowstorm anymore, let us haveit sunny and 60s and 70s, like 3 years ago when I believe it was 80 degrees on St Patrick's day.

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  11. Bill, I take issue with the header:
    this winter has not had any single hurrah: a better header would have been:
    Does Early March snows mark the end of the winter that never was?

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  12. A last ditch effort snow burst is occurring in AV. So this is what snow looks like!! Oh, how I have missed you! It's beautiful, but too little, too late. I am joining the chorus for WARM (70 degrees) spring weather too. Let's try this winter thing again later this year and hope that it doesn't get detoured again on its way to Minnesota (Metro).

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  13. Probably about 4 inches in Andover. For the short duration of this system, I'd say it produced about an inch an hour. Fairly impressive.

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  14. Definitely NOT a WWA worthy snow in S. Mpls. Very tame. Wet roads. Easy travel. Never had a super strong snow burst. A couple inches maybe? Sun's peaking out. Some melting going on already. #hype

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  15. Plenty of snow for me today. I am sure the people on I-94 in the ditch or stuck waiting since MnDOT shut down I-94 for nearly two hours this morning are glad they were warned by the WWA. Blowing snow will make outstate travel difficult.

    Thanks for giving us a spot to follow along Bill and to Novak for providing forecasts and his reasoning behind them.

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  16. Definitely another bust for the core metro, as it was to be expected given the kind of winter we have had.
    1.8" inches officially at the airport.
    There is no way 1.8" inches of snow in Minneapolis, Minnesota yield a WWA. It is ridicolus.
    A wind advisory after the storm was much more warranted.
    Our grandparents are laughing given the old-fashioned winter they endured.
    Less than 2 inches of snow it seems like the end of the world looking at media outlest.
    As per Novak: high impact for the metro: come on man! let's be serious. I showed your chart to my friend in Boston and they are still laughing !
    Let's be serious here.

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  17. Winter Weather Advisory:

    This product is issued by the National Weather Service when a low pressure system produces a combination of winter weather (snow, freezing rain, sleet, etc.) that present a hazard, but does not meet warning criteria.

    --

    I would say this morning was hazardous. I got up at 7.15 and it had not snowed overnight, and was not snowing. By 7.30 it was coming down fiercely, the roads were bad, and visibility was incredibly limited.

    I'd say an Advisory was warranted.

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  18. 3-4 inches in Brooklyn Center. Not a bad for this winter

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    1. You're right, 3-4 inches is good for this winter. Now how pathetic is that?!! It's not even as though that 3-4 inches fell on top of several inches already on the ground from previous storms. If Brooklyn Center is like Apple Valley, then the snow fell mostly on ground with either a very thin snow cover or on bare ground. Speaking of bare ground, that is what we still have a lot of down here AFTER this so-called storm.

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  19. Top grades for the meteorologists who kept their cool during this whole thing.

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  20. Blizzard warnings have all been cancelled. NWS will have to eat some serious crow about issuing a warning before a blizzard was imminent. A watch would have been much more pertinent.

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  21. Really people? Still debating about this non-storm?
    Isn't this Minnesota still?
    Aren't we supposed to earn our springs?
    3-4 inches a big deal (the few that got even that)?
    And then we dare laughing at people in Atlanta or DC that empty the shelves for 1-2 inch snow?
    This event did not even warrant a blog entry as far as I am concerned..
    Come on!

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  22. The Great Metro Snow Shield of the wimpy winter of '14-'15!

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  23. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 3, 2015 at 9:15 PM

    Loved this storm--just not enough snow. It acted just as most people had predicted. It was fast moving, as predicted. It was not a heavy snow producer, as most people predicted. There was wind on the backside, as most people predicted. Over 300 accidents as of 6:00--caught some off guard. A WWA is exactly what was needed to let people know what was coming. A Winter Storm Watch/Warning would have been overkill. I had 4 inches in my driveway in Plymouth and most were using snow blowers to move it. Based on the predictions above, I would say that most people nailed it. Nailed it. I am not sure what BUST means as the storm acted like it was predicted to. A bust should not be related to the hype surrounding a storm that is created by the media. Novak shifted his heaviest snow band to the north late last night--good move based on the information that was coming in. But the heavy, wet snow was intense for a while and was short-lived--both things that were predicted. Loved it and brought it!

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    1. PWL, I'm glad that you got snow up there. You and folks in Blaine, Andover experienced a very rare occurrence so far as this winter is concerned. However, down here in AV, Burnsville there is a lot of bare ground. We received this winter's typical token inch (It's my understanding that Forest Lake had the same experience). Multiple outlets predicted much more than an inch for us too, so yes, the forecast did bust down here (and in Forest Lake). Where do you draw the line as to whether it's a bust? Which forecast (time wise) is used to make that determination? Is it 24 hours prior to the event, 12 hours prior to the event, etc? Anybody can keep updating the forecast up to the last minute and then claim that they got it right. Not picking on anybody, but Novak is a prime example. You said that late on the night before the event he shifted his forecast. Several forecasters (including Dave Dahl) said that 1-2 inches should be on the ground by morning. Light flakes didn't even start falling here until 7 AM. The NWS was predicting a 90% chance of snow overnight. That simply did not happen. My wife got up extra early in preparation for a long, snowy, slow commute to Minneapolis. She woke me up asking where the snow was. Not even a flake had fallen. She turned on Kare 11 and they were talking about it snowing like crazy in central MN (St. Cloud). Getting back to Novak, he had been very bullish for several inches of snow for the metro on the days leading up to his last minute updated forecast. Most people were asleep when he issued his update. They went to bed hearing one forecast and woke up to an entirely different forecast. I understand that nobody can control the weather (despite what some people might think) and that models can and do frequently change their forecasts, sometimes abruptly. I am merely wondering what the parameters are of a busted forecast? I have a feeling that the definition varies based on who is being asked that question.

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    2. Bob, I agree. Here in my part of Mpls we got just over two inches. My big thing with this storm was two-fold: 1) wanting to congratulate the mets kept their cool during whole time period leading up to the storm like Paul Douglas. He NEVER went over a few inches max for the inner-core metro and never hyped it, except talking about potential blizzard for the western part of the state. 2) to the NWS, this was absolutely not - in every sense of the word - NOT a WWA event. Two inches? Are you kidding? And never once a heavy snow burst? Little peaks of sun? Heck, it didn't even snow during rush hour. In that sense, over-forecasted, and again per my #1 above over-hyped by some.

      With this said I completely understand those who got 4+ inches feel differently. I'm just speaking to my corner of Hennepin County.

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    3. I totally agree, thank you Bob.
      What bothers me specifically is the tendency of mets to spin their forecast to always make it look right, by being deliberately vague with terms like NW Metro, South Metro, etc. So the ideal border can be changed as pleased.
      Finally I am not sure if I would give too much credit to Paul Douglas or Paul Huttner. Their forecasting philosophy is to be extremely conservative on snow amounts which of course pays handsomely in winters like these, but they also tend to bust bigger snowfall which maybe a problem: Dave Dahl tends to be overoptimistic on snowfall, but he hardly ever misses a big event: let us remember he was the only one to predict the domebuster exactly (17") 2 days before, when Paul Douglas and others were still in the 4-8 range.
      Bill, you had started that series of profiles of local mets a few years ago: given your contacts, I think it would be good to resume it (considering a few new faces on the local market) especially getting some details on their forecasting philosophy etc..
      I think it would be an interesting debate to have.

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  24. Ahhhhh, gotta love snow gradients. The truth is, it is nearly impossible to predict exactly where a snow gradient is going to set-up, especially more than 24 hours out. For those of you expecting that, keep on dreaming my friends.

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  25. BTW, say good bye to Winter. If this 'split flow' develops as indicated by model data, we won't see temps below 32° let alone snow for a good chunk of March.

    The fat lady is stepping up to the microphone.

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  26. What!, wait where are all the Joe Bastardi fans, I don't hear you. Come on lets hear you stick by your guy about all this "false spring" talk and cold and stormy weather returns for the plains on east. You have Mr. Bastardi and we counter with Mr. Novak, winter is over!

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    1. Wait, over already?
      I was waiting for it to start first. I must have missed it.

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    2. @Tim, why not just state your position, the reasons for your position and await the outcome? Obviously, there are two schools of thought regarding our March weather (Novak v. Bastardi). Nobody knows definitively what will occur. Getting all jacked up and excited because others disagree with you says a lot about you.

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  27. Come on now. Saying winter is over in early March is just as foolish as saying a snowstorm is a certainty 3 days out.

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  28. met.no says 67 by next Sunday 3/15.

    BRING IT!

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  29. Time for me to weigh in on the Novak vs Bastardi nonsense. First of all I don't believe the doctor is forecasting an end to winter, if you read his post from March 6th at 11:28 AM you will notice that he cancels winter if the split flow develops as the models show. He actually says the fat lady is stepping up to the microphone, his doesn't say she is signing, so please don't put words in his mouth.

    As far as JB is concerned, I'm not all that much of a fan, however I think he is a hell of a salesman. But I will admit from time to time I will watch his free Saturday updates to confirm what I'm reading in the various teleconnection forecasts, tonight is one of these times.

    As some of you know, I'm a strong believer in watching the teleconnections, and the last two years or so I've been beating the drum about the warm sea surface temps in the eastern Pacific just off the Western coast of the USA. Those warm waters will generally promote a strong + PNA signal which results in ridging over the Western US. By mid March this signal is showing up very strong if not off the charts.

    While at the same time I've been harping about the strong - EPO which will normally put a ridge in the Gulf of Alaska. Now think of the air flow when you have ridging in that area, it is clockwise so while you have strong warm air flow over Alaska coming from the SW it will swing up over the pole area and drop colder air down over the lower 48.

    Now lets look at some things that we haven't seen this winter, a neg AO (arctic oscillation) means that the polar vortex may be breaking down, we really haven't seen that yet this season but all models are strongly hinting at it after March 15th meaning once again that colder air could bleed down into the lower 48.

    In addition to that, we have really not seen any blocking setting up over Greenland. When we see a + NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) we don't see a blocking ridge setting up there, and that has been the case this year. However the guidance is showing a - NAO setting up after March 15th and that would end causing a blocking effect, in other words system will have a hard time moving west to east.

    Best guess is as we move towards the middle of March into April we will see below normal temps with below normal precip. Guess I will have to fall into the JB camp.

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    1. So much depends on the +PNA ridge axis and where it sets up. It looks to me like we could be on the eastern edge of said axis, it will be very close. But I strongly believe that most of the area east of the Mississippi will be below normal temp wise.

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  30. If this what JB says is false spring, I'll take it everytime, every available model that I have seen(some go out as much as 45 days) has temperatures in the 40's, 50's, and 60's with a very small(2-3 day hiccup at the very end of March, then only 30's). The above average temps strongly outweigh the below average temps over that time. I fall into the Novak camp, I was at a bar last night and a oveweight lady was the lead singer, just saying.Enjoy spring everyone and grilling.

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  31. Novak camp as well, a few days may fall below average over the coming month but that doesnt mean winter returns or its a false spring. Also JB said stormy when winter returns, watch out another 1-2" of snow might catch us off guard.

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  32. This early spring shouldn't surprise anybody with such a lame snowfall this winter it didnt take much to melt away any snowfall and now the warm air just floods right in without any snowcover to cool the atmosphere.
    BTW, @Bill took my worst beating ever by my brother.....62-30! :(

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    1. Y'ouch! You really took on the chin. He didn't even need you to give him the inches.

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  33. CPC agrees with Novak as well. Above average temps through 3/22 from Wisconsin to the west coast.

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  34. Strange but true and speaks highly about our lame winter. DFW office issued more winter storm warnings then the MSP office this winter. Crazy!

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    1. I agree, very lame. However, if we were the epic center of the cold this winter, as we typically are, then this winter would have been a whole different story temperature-wise and perhaps snow-wise. The core of the cold has been, and continues to be, just to our east, along with the storms. Location, location, location.

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  35. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 16, 2015 at 5:40 PM

    Dave Dahl says the possibility of SNOW early next week. Bring it!!!

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    1. But wait a minute, I thought we were having an early Spring? I also see that highs this weekend will likely be in the 30's in the metro. Hmmm, could it be that Mr. Bastardi was right when a few weeks ago he stated that this past week was going to be a false start to Spring?!!!!

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    2. Yeah that was quite a prediction: that the temperatures would oscillate. In spring. In Minnesota. That never happens!

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    3. You're right, so go tell that to those who were swearing a couple of weeks ago that Spring was here to stay.

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  36. I am not sure what kind of false spring you guys are talking about. Temperatures were 20-25 degress above average for almost all of last week. Now we are simply back to average for the period.
    So I am not really sure what qualifies as 'false' spring i your eyes.
    It seems pretty real to me.

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  37. Ooh, let's do the "Dave Dahl said the word 'snow'" circle jerk!

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  38. A interesting development with the 03/18/0z runs of the Gem and the GFS, they both show accumulating snows for southwestern MN in the order of 2-7", more on the GEM than the GFS, for next Sunday evening into Monday morning. It's still 5 days out so things will change. Best guess is that it will be suppressed to the south. However SW Minnesota is very dry, if I would pack any part of the state to see some moisture that would be it.

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  39. Light snow falling in mankato right now.

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  40. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 20, 2015 at 12:42 PM

    My assessment of KSTP TV weather people. Dave Dahl likes to give a lot of detail in his blog and takes a chance at upcoming "possibilities." He is personable on TV and gives lots of details. Ken Barlow is interesting at best. He gives little detail in his blog and seems to care more about how he looks on tv, including his 24/7 tan, than the details and specifics on a forecast. Jonathan Yuhas is pathetic. Really. He gives such very little detail in his blog entries. They are so general and cover, at best, the next 24-36 hours. His on air personality can put any one to sleep.

    But more than their personality differences is the difference in their forecasts. How can one person talk about snow in the seven day, and "has to be watched," to the next morning the next person saying it doesn't look like their is any precipitation for the next 7 days? And then Yuhas doesn't seem to even recognize precipitation if he was hanging upside down in a thunderstorm. I just don't get the philosophy and (lack of) communication between them all. I get that they have different opinions of the upcoming weather and personalities, but they are on the same station! At least recognize that maybe something changes from the previous KSTP TV forecast. Seriously. Am I alone on this?

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    1. PWL, KSTP has been known for its internal inconsistencies for a long time.
      Bill has written about it:
      http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/2012/01/dear-kstp.html
      It is obviously a problem they can't or are not willing to look into.

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    2. I actually disagree a bit with your Jonathat Yuhas' assessment.
      He may be less glitzy but he is actually a well prepared weatherman.
      He is the only one who consistently gives a broader picture of the atmosphere at all levels, often showing tempeatures not just at the surface but at 5000 and 10000 feet.
      Regarding the forecast changes I think the major issue is that Dave Dahl has become more and more of 'weather marketing' guy, teasing readers with something big about to happen so that they would 'check back for updates', whereas the other are actually looking at what the weather charts say.
      I used to be a fan of Dahl's but became increasingly disappointed by his tactics to just drive traffic to his blog.
      Above all, KSTP did not seem to have invested a lot in upgrading their visuals. Compare the wind field map that Fox9 always shows with the antiquated graphics used by KSTP.

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  41. Anyone want to chime in on the 3 to 5 inches of snow predicted for tomorrow (Sunday)? (I do remember one Minnesota "spring" when it was 85 degrees on March 31, followed by about a foot of snow in mid-April). - MM ;-)

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  42. Tomorrow is quickly becoming interesting as the models come into pretty good agreement. A decent swath of snow appears likely. Thermal profiles suggest the majority of precip should be snow, although that is tricky to forecast especially with these spring systems.

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  43. Interesting late March storm. Very narrow band predicted and the NWS has upped the forecast to up to 8" in spots. Will it stay cold enough?

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  44. Heavy precip./snow missing the metro as usual this morning. Harbinger of things to come later today and later Tuesday, always so close!

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    1. Those radar returns in the area this morning aren't reaching the ground anywhere, nor wete they expected to. So no, it's not a harbinger for later. They're unrelated.

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  45. Looks like a winter storm warning should be needed east of the I-35 corridor from just south of the metro to the Iowa border. Just wished the HRRR was on board.

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  46. temperatures are warming.
    the risk that the bulk of precip will come when temperature will be in the mid to upper 30s mixing rain in.
    I feel totals will much lower than predicted.
    Similar scenario to the 2009 xmas storm

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  47. @MN Transplant look again sir, the precip this morning is all snow and has accumulated south of the metro, so yes it has reached the ground.
    Also the southern shift has begun, whereas the metro will be left out of the heavy snow, Jonathan Yuhas has alluded to it. Only 2" in and around the core metro looks right.

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  48. Bust! for the metro core. But for areas south of the metro, say Lakeville on south old man winter is back!
    Another snowy tease for the metro and more disappointed snowlovers chiming in 3-2-1...go

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  49. NWS is still saying most snow will start mid-afternoon. Too early to call bust, but pessimism sure makes sense based on this winter.

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  50. Weather.com was 5-8" at bedtime last night, this morning when I awoke they were 3-6" and now they are down to 2-4" for Minneapolis. What a joke at this rate will there be enough snow for a snowball fight!

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  51. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 22, 2015 at 1:05 PM

    First mistake--looking at weather.com. Bring it!! And bring it on Tuesday!!

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  52. Should be any minute now when Novak takes MSP out of the 4+ zone and inserts us into the c-2", another bust!

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    1. ahahaha you are right!
      and almost for the same reason. Dry air from the east, eroding and pushing the main bands to the south.
      Given it is the 10th time or so this happened this winter, you'd expect our supposed experts to have learnt their lesson by now,
      Instead there you go. Another bust.

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  53. Almost all outlets and twitter folks have gone down to 1-3".
    Weather.com now only 1"
    Translation, NWS fail!

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    1. Yet another NWS FAIL to close out this pathetic season. I noticed how the NWS has gone from stating this morning that snow will start in the metro by late morning, and then stating that it will start by 2 pm, and now they are saying by 6 pm. Blah, blah, blah. And to think that the NWS forecast both last night and again this morning stated that today and tonight there was a 100% chance of heavy snow for Apple Valley. We haven't seen flake #1. They can't even get the forecast right on the same day as the anticipated event. It used to be that one could take to the bank a forecast of a 100% chance of snow that was issued the same day or the preceding evening. Smh!! Let's just move on and officially bring on the warm Spring weather and put a nail in the coffin of the non-winter of 2014-2015. My final grades are a solid "F" for snow this season and a "C-" for temperatures. The grade for temperatures is only that high due to November, the first half of January and all of February being cold. December, the second half of January and March have been a huge disappointment.

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  54. NWS is still sticking with 4-8 for the southwest metro. Will be interesting to see if it materializes. Also, I'm not a fan of anonymous people ripping Novak. This forum is about the challenges of weather forecasts. I'm happy Novak participates.

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    1. I'm not confident that 95% of the metro will see more than an inch or so. As for Novak, I too am glad that he participates, but he has his struggles just like the rest of the forecasters. Weather forecasting is a very tough gig and storms can be quite fickle (like today...again). Forecasting can at times be a very frustrating and thankless endeavor. Let's face it, almost all of us would be fired from our jobs if our accuracy rate was as poor as that of the typical weather forecaster when it comes to trying to pinpoint precipitation in a a particular location.

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    2. While true, almost all of us don't predict the future for a job.

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  55. Unless you're Joe Mauer who is right at the plate only 3 out of 10 times and gets paid millions. I love Joe, but it's good perspective on forecasters who are right on tomorrow's temps, skies, wind and precip 9 out of 10 times. Weather forecasting is far more accurate than most give credit for. Snow is the hardest forecast.

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  56. Flat out hilarious, Jonathan Yuhas now says an 1" or less for metro. Give me a break with this forcasting is tough crap. I would agree if we were 3-5 days out, but just this morning heavier totals of 3-6" with localized more were forecasted metro wide. If we cant have accuracy the day of why do we even bother with a 5 day and 7 day forecasts. Go ahead and rip me but you all know theres truth in my statement.

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  57. LOL @ the cry-babies here!

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  58. NWS now 3-6 for southwest metro but added a Winter Storm War inc for Rochester matching Randy's prediction this morning, I still do not see how the Metro will get that much.

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  59. The Metro won't get much, because that is par for the course this season. All of the systems have gone south of the Metro. It's just not our year.

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  60. Let's just wait and see how many inches fall in metro before we start whining about a bust and those "bad forecasters." Snow is moving in now...better late than never.

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  61. Not saying we will get a lot of snow. But do any of the negatives ever look at a bleepin radar?

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  62. This storm is unfolding about as expected with a bit more of a punch in some areas. Tight SW/NE snow gradient across southern MN including the MSP metro. Areas of Scott & Dakota get 6"+ while Anoka & northern Washington counties get a coating - 2". Not easy to 4cast, but I'm happy with how this is evolving.

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    1. you should be hired by some political campaign managers as their chief spin doctor as you are pretty able at that.
      Your tweet early this afternoon had the cities in a 2-4 band, with the lowest thirdin a 4-6. By that you would assume the downtown areas were estimated at 3 to 4.
      That seems hard to materialize. So as far as I am concerned the storm may be evolving as planned, but your forecast for the core metro ( hennepin and ramsey counties) look a bust .

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    2. You should take a walk outside the loop and see the good half-foot that's fallen in less than three hours.

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  63. Give it an hour or two. Heavy snow now at Hutch with .25 mi visibility. Main vorticity lobe working east toward SW metro.

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  64. NWS has dropped the totals again, now 1-3 for SW metro. Storm appears to have gone around 40 miles south of the forecasts this morning.

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  65. Yawn. Just drop from Apple Valley to MSP. Easy drive. Wet roads. Coating to an inch at worst in southern areas. Bust.

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    1. You know what? GOOD. IT'S EFFIN SPRING.

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  66. Temp hits 70 in March, no comments. Three flakes of snow? OMG OMG OMG LOOK OUTSIDE OMG

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    1. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 22, 2015 at 9:35 PM

      Did you post anything when it was 70? Oh, I guess I wouldn't know because I can't tell one anonymous from the other.

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  67. Funny how a 6"-10" snowfall in Carver, Scott & Dakota counties is considered a BUST.

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    1. A lot of people in the Twin Cities have loopitis, a condition that occurs when people don't realize there is life beyond the loop. 8 inches right now in Prior Lake and Lakeville. 4-6 inches in Carver County, all since 6:00 pm.

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  68. I would love to see most of the naysayers and premature bust callers on this board spend a winter forecasting on the public airwaves. If you really think it's that easy and you can do better then put out your own website or apply at your local TV station. You wouldn't last a season without getting fired.

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  69. I DEMAND my forecaster to give me my EXACT total for my backyard. If the snow falls 20 miles south, that's on the forecaster. Anything less, I declare a bust.......

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    1. So where is your backyard and how much is there now?

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  70. Talk about a snowfall range for metro....0.3" in Otsego northwest, 1" to 3" central metro...7" now in Prior Lake, 7.5" in Carver!

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    1. I was caught out driving in Carver/Scott counties as this thing got going. NWS should have those areas in a Winter Storm Warning, no doubt. Nobody had any clue it was going to accumulate at 2-3 inches per hour, especially not in just an advisory. Things deteriorated in just 20-30 minutes. The roads are terrible and visibility is almost non-existent.

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  71. Correct Dr. Novak! As I noted earlier, just looked like it went a little south of the original forecast. I haven't measured here yet, but there is a sharp cutoff. Interesting Storm.

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  72. 7.5" inches being reported in Lakeville by a trained spotter.

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  73. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 22, 2015 at 9:38 PM

    Really impressive storm that developed pretty intensely in a 24 hour period. Great forecasting even with a small jog to the south. Everyone said it would be a sharp cutoff and it was. There are some angry people that must have typed the word bust over and over in class when they were naughty in school--they are ready and able to type it pretty quickly.

    Great job, Novak! You rock and I love to follow your comments, your Twitter posts, and your videos. Thanks to you and Bill for keeping me up to date and being so accurate. Love it!

    Now.....bring something special on Tuesday. Any thoughts?

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    1. NO! It's spring sports season!

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  74. Solid 5-6 inches in AV/Rosemount. It's still snowing! Very beautiful snowfall!

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  75. Boring storm. - From S Mpls, not far from the airport where they take official measurements :)

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  76. I have absolutely LOVED watching all these storms slides juuuust out of range from me in the Mpls area this winter. Still no storm over 3.5 inches this year! Amazing!

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  77. Not a trained spotter, but took a few measurements this morning in Rosemount at 6AM. 9" even on the car, 10.25" in the yard and 7.75" on the driveway. Hardly a bust.

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  78. @BIll, if you will I would like to rant a little.
    3.5" in Golden Valley!
    First off what an impressive snow system last night, yes I know many of you north of 694 are like what snow? We have to come to accept that this year is the year of the tight gradient. in fact since moving here I can recall many like last nights but it seems as of late(last several years) these kind of tight gradient storms are increasing. It would make life and forecasting that much easier if their were just an even blanket of white each time we had a storm but mother nature doesnt work that way.
    Which leads me to the doubters, the naysayers of this blog, you know who you are the, BustAnonymous........please just leave or at the very least wait till the event actually gets going and is complete. Incredible the amount of posts yesterday afternoon about busts without a single flake had fallen, I have harped on here before on snowfall ranges....if we receive snowfall within that range then the forecast is not a bust and would be accurate. So with that regard I'll pick out two....the NWS, when the advisory was issued the forecast called for 3-6" with localized heavier amounts and that is EXACTLY what happened(MSP got 3.6" and places like Lakeville,Burnsville,Shakopee got double that).....and Dr. Novak he pretty much nailed the location of the heavy snow band on Saturday when his initial snow map came out, they were all included in the 4+ band(which MSP was included, Im not going to fault him over a miss of .4 of an inch). So in ending I believe the forecasts were spot on except maybe a winter storm warning could of and should have been issued for counties just south of MSP.

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  79. Amen to bigdaddy! I like to read peoples' predictions; I dislike the bashing and 'bust' outbursts that make me not want to visit anymore for the meteorological predictions and discussions. I also think Novak did one heck of a job and far in advance of many others. It HAS been a season of 'tight gradients'...... Yes, bigdaddy, I agree with you 100%. And one more thanks to Bill for keeping this site going as we transition seasons and as he watches from afar in CA. Hope he doesn't throw in the towel on this Minnesota Forecaster of his.

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    1. Thanks. And it's actually fairly fun watching from afar. :-)

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  80. Bill - why not just change the who can comment setting so it doesn't allow 'everyone (anonymous) to post?

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    1. Good idea. Hopefully, that's easy to figure out.....

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    2. It's right there in the settings. :-)

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    3. So I'm assuming I want to check "Only Members of this Blog?" The other choices are Registered Users (maybe it's that one) or "Users with Google Accounts"

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    4. https://support.google.com/blogger/answer/42063?hl=en

      From what I can ascertain is you would have to go with Registered Users or Google Account Users. Only members is for a team blog. So that option is out. https://productforums.google.com/forum/#!topic/blogger/dsB5MYHqZzg

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    5. Just changed it to registered users. If you can, please reply to this so I know that it worked OK. Thanks.

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  81. Incredibly depressing weather after a very nice several weeks in which I started riding my bike to work again. Hopefully this crap is gone soon.

    Busted forecast high today, of course. They need to start issuing two forecast high temperatures: one that accounts for clouds, one that doesn't.

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  82. I've changed the settings on the blog so that you have to register (it's simple/easy/quick/free) to comment. My hope is that this keeps the level of discourse high.

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  83. If your a snowlover you need to read Paul Huttners blog this evening......it very well maybe a weather fantasy, but still......can we go from 70° to a snowstorm in 24 hours, it happens in Denver why not here!
    This is bigdaddy

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    1. I'll be back in MSP on Monday. Maybe a special welcome back gift from Ma Nature?

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  84. Highly inappropriate of Paul H. to post about a storm 9 days in the future. We all know either it won't happen or will change 9 times.

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  85. We need the moisture!

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  86. Bill - I am not a member or have registered and still was able to post as Anon. I will be more than happy to register...just tell me where.

    I just want you to know that the "riff raff" can still post.

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    1. I switched it back to accepting all comments (including anon) when Randy was having trouble. True, the riff raff can still post....

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  87. So can we call it a bust in not allowing anonymous posts? :-)

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    1. Yes, but there was a tight gradient on the bust.

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    2. and a dry slot somewhere too...haha

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  88. Plymouth Weather LoverMarch 25, 2015 at 2:23 PM

    So now Paul Huttner has mentioned it and Paul Douglas has mentioned it: I chance for significant moisture around April 1 that could be in the form of snow. Two outlets picking up on it is a trend. Any other thoughts from the experts? I know it is a week or so out, but we are within about 7 days. Let's do this. Bring it!!

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    1. PWL, I love snow as much as the next person but you have to throw in the towel on this depressing snowfall season. Huttner only mentioned snow because the Euro model showed a tremendous amount of it next Wednesday, now the Euro has backed off of that notion, in fact NWS has highs well up into the 50's that day with rain. Even the hype seeking snowlover Dave Dahl mentions no snow and average temperatures next week. Lets face it were done, enjoy spring and summer and we'll see how early winter returns next fall.

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  89. The next couple of weeks look to be quite the roller coaster in the weather department. 30's one week, then back into the 50's and maybe 60's next week. Next Wednesday has the potential to be quite warm if you want to believe the GFS. In fact, some places close to home could see their first severe weather of the season. A potent low pressure system looks to pass by to the north, putting us well into the warm sector. A cold front then looks to sweep through, perhaps setting off some thunderstorms as it passes. We'll have to watch for storms really over the next several weeks as spring continues to try to push into the area, and winter still wanting to linger.

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  90. Woo-hoo the April Fools Day megastorm is only four days away!! Oh wait, you mean the megastorm Paul Huttner advertised is not coming the one that had us in the 60's and then a foot of snow the next day, so even the Euro cannot be trusted. Honestly Paul should never had posted that, that was out of character for him he usually plays it closer to the vest. A forecast model ten days out should never make someones blog, in my opinion.

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    1. I for one don't mind seeing model data and long range models one to two weeks out, I always like to know "whats on the horizon", but you have to be weather savvy and know that far in the future you need to take the infowith a grain of salt and know it wont play out exactly that way. I do believe Mr. Huttner hyped it up some to get more readers and hits by using the term "megastorm"....it could have easily said "Euro showing large system next week".

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  91. It's really foolish to put much thought into any storm 10 days out, but it's still fun to at least talk about a little bit. For the record, that storm is still showing up for this area, but it's much further north than where the models had it 5 or so days ago. That's why the threat is shifting a bit from being a snow producer to being a potential thunderstorm producer. Right now the NWS has 50's and 60's for the middle of next week, but if these model trends continue, I'd expect those high temps to be trending upwards through the weekend and into next week. Unfortunately the cold front coming through Wednesday night will knock those temps right back down again. Gotta love March/April in the northern plains!

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  92. PH latches on to the outlier long range model runs all of the time. He's a terrible forecaster but always suckers people in, especially people on this site. Remember spring was here to stay...oh but I guess Novak and PD said that as well...

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  93. Huttner doesn't really do any forecasting. He looks at the same models and graphics that, really, any of us can. Most of his blogs are screenshots of Weatherspark or those ultra-useful (sarcasm) 5 fps animated GIFs the NWS puts out. (Welcome to 1995.)

    Predicting weather, especially a week out, is extremely difficult, as we all know. Hell, a lot of times we can't even predict what tomorrow's temperature will be. But I sense that the complaining here has less to do with forecast accuracy and more to do with a bunch of crybabies getting their hopes up over some snow that doesn't materialize.

    NWS and Novak are predicting storms (the real kind, with rain and thunder and lightning) next week. Bring it!! If not, hey, at least they tried.

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  94. How about a new thread for spring and the possible thunderstorms Wednesday?

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    1. Your wish is my command. New thread posted.

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